Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Grapemask]

Trump has an .8 lead on 2 percent remaining votes to be accounted for. Biden would have to win roughly 2/3 of the remaining votes to close the gap and overtake Trump.

Color me sceptical.

I think the big problem I see here is a lot of people focusing on percentages instead of actual votes. Georgia's got about 150k votes left to count, all urban votes, with only a 40k lead over Biden. In PA, there's a similar thing going on, but with 1 million ballots - we've seen maybe 300k posted since then, and Trump's lead has been cut in half, so there's still a ways to go.

They can definitely still be losses, but there's good reason to be optimistic.

[Machismo]

I was very optimistic this morning but PA and AZ don’t look good. PA especially looks like a lost cause.

Evidence, please.

[kaid]

Evidence, please.

Biden has won the last 600k ballots counted in Pennsylvania by 40 points, which is much bigger than the 22-point margin he needs the rest of the way out.

Ryan Matsumoto @Ryanmatsumoto1
PENNSYLVANIA MATH:

Trump +195,953 votes
6,277,135 votes reporting
~88% estimated vote reporting
~855,973 votes remaining
Biden must win remaining votes 525,963 to 330,010.
Biden must win remaining ballots 61% - 39%.

Biden is favored. Mail ballots are HEAVILY D.

#Election2020
8:38 PM · Nov 4, 2020

[caervek]

There is a reason for Trumps twitter meltdown and threats of multiple law suits and it isn't because he is winning.

I dunno, acting irrationally and threatening lawsuits is just a regular Thursday for him xD

[Release]

I am optimistic if nothing else Biden holds AZ and Nevada which is the American equivalent of a C- on your country test.

[Xeones]

I think the big problem I see here is a lot of people focusing on percentages instead of actual votes. Georgia's got about 150k votes left to count, all urban votes, with only a 40k lead over Biden. In PA, there's a similar thing going on, but with 1 million ballots - we've seen maybe 300k posted since then, and Trump's lead has been cut in half, so there's still a ways to go.

They can definitely still be losses, but there's good reason to be optimistic.

*cough* 32.8k lead. Just took another creep towards biden.

[Machismo]

Biden has won the last 600k ballots counted in Pennsylvania by 40 points, which is much bigger than the 22-point margin he needs the rest of the way out.

Ryan Matsumoto @Ryanmatsumoto1
PENNSYLVANIA MATH:

Trump +195,953 votes
6,277,135 votes reporting
~88% estimated vote reporting
~855,973 votes remaining
Biden must win remaining votes 525,963 to 330,010.
Biden must win remaining ballots 61% - 39%.

Biden is favored. Mail ballots are HEAVILY D.

#Election2020
8:38 PM · Nov 4, 2020

So, that other guy is simply talking out his ass. Good to know.

[Mihalik]

I think the big problem I see here is a lot of people focusing on percentages instead of actual votes. Georgia's got about 150k votes left to count, all urban votes, with only a 40k lead over Biden. In PA, there's a similar thing going on, but with 1 million ballots - we've seen maybe 300k posted since then, and Trump's lead has been cut in half, so there's still a ways to go.

They can definitely still be losses, but there's good reason to be optimistic.

Again. I fucking hope that turns out to be true.

But there have been a whole lot of wishful thinking and making assumptions on the voting intentions of people the past couple of month that turned out to be spectacularly wrong.

So let's take these supposed "trends" with a pinch of salt and err on the side of caution.

[kaid]

NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 9:55 PM
Fundamentally, the issue for Trump is that while Georgia projects to be very close and Arizona — at least in my view — projects to be very close, Biden is way ahead of the pace he needs to overtake Trump in Pennsylvania. If it were three toss-ups, that would be one thing, but Biden could wind up winning Pennsylvania fairly comfortably.

[Puzzony]

Some people here either dont know how the voting works or they get some perverse sexual arousement from all the "doom-gloom all is lost" posts. Please just go away and enjoy yourselves in private.

[Valdhammer]

Evidence, please.

He needs 63% of the remaining votes in PA ta catch Trump. It’s a tall order. His lead in AZ has shrunk to only 79,000 and Trump won the key county in that state in 2016.

[Release]

Again. I fucking hope that turns out to be true.

But there have been a whole lot of wishful thinking and making assumptions on the voting intentions of people the past couple of month that turned out to be spectacularly wrong.

So let's take these supposed "trends" with a pinch of salt and err on the side of caution.

What people are basing this on is the votes still left to come in. The votes still left to come in in Georgia specifically are nearly all Blue high pop urban areas which heavily favour Biden. The low population counties which all vote Trump are done so his lead is only going to diminish further. It's whether it's enough to flip it. I suspect it might well be.

(I should say not completely done Trump has some votes left in Dodge and Floyd but I'm not sure that will make up the ground he's lost)

[arandomuser]

theres alot of people voting biden who are voting down ballot republican
because biden is outpreforming dems in the house by 3 million votes

is the lincoln voter real?

[For_The_Horde]

NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 9:55 PM
Fundamentally, the issue for Trump is that while Georgia projects to be very close and Arizona — at least in my view — projects to be very close, Biden is way ahead of the pace he needs to overtake Trump in Pennsylvania. If it were three toss-ups, that would be one thing, but Biden could wind up winning Pennsylvania fairly comfortably.

At the rate things are going, Pennsylvania will be alot less close than Georgia and Arizona.

[Fahrenheit]

PA down to 186k. 750-800k left.

GA down to 33k. 100-125k left.

Both sets are going towards Biden by 35-40 points.

[Antiganon]

As a non American I really have to ask at this point, why do you guys still use the electoral collage system? I can understand that 200 years ago it was simply impossible for a country your size to hold a national level vote, but it's not 200 years ago anymore and it's been technologically possible for many many years now. This antiquated system has seen two out of you last five presidential elections result in the person who got the least votes becoming president, why isn't there any effort being made to ditch it? :S

Amending our constitution is incredibly difficult even when there is overwhelming support to do so. In the 231 years since the Constitution was ratified, excluding the bill of rights, the Constitution has only been amended 17 times.

[Machismo]

He needs 63% of the remaining votes in PA ta catch Trump. It’s a tall order. His lead in AZ has shrunk to only 79,000 and Trump won the key county in that state in 2016.

He's been exceeding that quite handily all day long.

[JustinJgh]

What does our risk look like in AZ?

[Zaydin]

PA down to 186k. 750-800k left.

GA down to 33k. 100-125k left.

Apparently Biden is doing extremely well with his totals among the outstanding votes in PA.

Per Nate Silver, Biden needed to carry those ballots by a 22 point margin to overtake Trump. He is currently winning them by 50 point margins.

[Release]

What does our risk look like in AZ?

Low, if voting remains as is in areas yet to come in where we have around 80% of the vote Biden will easily carry it.