Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Antiganon]

Its even harder to get people who are unbiased to pay for them.

The people who play for them are always biased. Always. They wouldn't conduct a poll if they didn't have an agenda they were looking to poll on.

The trick is that the pollsters needs to convince the candidate that a truly unbiased poll will help them more than a tilted poll that tells them what they want to hear.

[kaelleria]

PA is so fucking slow.

PA: Biden wins 71% of 1,247 vote batch. Trump lead decreases by 531 to 23,948. The country awaits.

[Felya]

Its even harder to get people who are unbiased to pay for them.

But, that’s not really your argument, as defined by your actions. You believe that polling is too accurate, thus needs to be thrown off by lying. You wouldn’t need to take your action, if it was intended to expose the problem. It would be self evident...

[Antiganon]

Well this is scary...
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1324574794894004226

Trump and Trump Jr being charged as accessories right? For openly calling for "all out war"?

[Kellhound]

Now, does that mean you are not a people or smarter than most? How stupid do you consider self assessment of intelligence?

By IQ? Better than most. (Not perfect, but not based on one's own opinion.)

[Xeones]

He's averaging in the high 70s at the moment, he can still lose PA but only if the last lap includes a tranch of strong red votes that haven't been counted yet (military mail-ins maybe?).

That just won't happen, even in red counties Biden was getting a larger chunk of the mail in vote simply because Trump told his followers not to use mail voting. Biden is going to win PA and be up at least 30k probably.

[Felya]

By IQ? Better than most. (Not perfect, but not based on one's own opinion.)

IQ is bullshit... If you self asses IQ, you don’t even understand what it’s measuring.

I will ask again, how intelligent do you consider self assessment of your own intelligence? Because I might have found the issue...

[Xeones]

PA is so fucking slow.

MSNBC was suggesting we should see big philly dumps hourly.

[Kellhound]

The people who play for them are always biased. Always. They wouldn't conduct a poll if they didn't have an agenda they were looking to poll on.

The trick is that the pollsters needs to convince the candidate that a truly unbiased poll will help them more than a tilted poll that tells them what they want to hear.

Not really a good proposition to see to it that polls are unbiased by convincing people that unbiased is better.

[Adam Jensen]

MSNBC was suggesting we should see big philly dumps hourly.

Yeah they're estimating about 2-3 hours and we'll know if Biden wins PA.

[s_bushido]

Well this is scary...
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1324574794894004226

It's almost like the president of the fucking country constantly demonizing the whole process is a bad idea, or something...

[Kellhound]

But, that’s not really your argument, as defined by your actions. You believe that polling is too accurate, thus needs to be thrown off by lying. You wouldn’t need to take your action, if it was intended to expose the problem. It would be self evident...

No, I see it as inaccurate, so I believe the less accurate they become the less people will care about them.

[Xeones]

Yeah they're estimating about 2-3 hours and we'll know if Biden wins PA.

Don't remember if we should expect the next batch imminently or in about 30 minutes.

[kaelleria]

MSNBC was suggesting we should see big philly dumps hourly.

That's just based on how quickly other dumps have been happening. I could have predicted that.

[Milchshake]

But, that’s not really your argument, as defined by your actions. You believe that polling is too accurate, thus needs to be thrown off by lying. You wouldn’t need to take your action, if it was intended to expose the problem. It would be self evident...

Ya, it was embarrassing how easily Cambridge Analytica was able to exploit their inner bigotries.

People dont lie to their google or pornhub search boxes.

Since Google and Facebook now guard that data for their own ends. Next gen pollsters will probably have to go to individuals and offer them like $200 to hand over their cookies/cache. Start building voter models that way.

[Felya]

No, I see it as inaccurate, so I believe the less accurate they become the less people will care about them.

If you see it as inaccurate, why do you have to lie? That’s a catch 22...

[eschatological]

Well this is scary...
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1324574794894004226

2 1/2 to 3 hours to get to Philly from NoVa...as someone pointed out in Slack, they probably left after Trump's speech.

[Kellhound]

IQ is bullshit... If you self asses IQ, you don’t even understand what it’s measuring.

I will ask again, how intelligent do you consider self assessment of your own intelligence? Because I might have found the issue...

You seem to believe that I self assessed my IQ, which I have not.

Is it really not obvious from my answer????

[Antiganon]

Not really a good proposition to see to it that polls are unbiased by convincing people that unbiased is better.

I mean, why?

Unbiased IS better. If I want to get ice cream for a party, and I poll attendees in flavors, skewing for Mint Chocolate Chip because I really want to eat some Mint Chocolate Chip ice cream, I can easily get a poll that tells me that, and wind up with disappointed guests.

I'd rather find out what flavor people actually want, buy that flavor, and everyone have a good time.

[Xeones]

That's just based on how quickly other dumps have been happening. I could have predicted that.

Ah they had said that philly could process x ballots an hour. That is why I felt it was relevant.