Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Kellhound]

The majority of American voters chose Hillary and Biden... what are you talking about? Trump won via the establishment in lector all college... you keep ignoring that democrats have had the majority of voters for every presidential election in 30 years, excluding one.

Key word. A significant amount of eligible voters are not moved by any message to bother to vote.

[Ripster42]

Morning, missed anything?
I see Mr Trump hasn't twatted anymore

Not unless you didn't see the landscaper news conference. It definitely took over the pornhub/cnn shop as my 2nd favorite thing to happen in the past week.

[Felya]

Morning, missed anything?
I see Mr Trump hasn't twatted anymore, guess it was bedtime

No, just arguing how Trump plans to steal the election... you know... just another day under Trump presidency.

[beanman12345]

Really??????? I said what CAN happen, not what SHOULD happen.

no it literally can not happen. this has been explained to you. you being unwilling to fix your ignorance doesn't change the fact that it can't happen.

[Felya]

Key word. A significant amount of eligible voters are not moved by any message to bother to vote.

That’s great... those people are fine with who ever is president... Republicans can’t even get majority of voters... no need to expand beyond that...

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no it literally can not happen. this has been explained to you. you being unwilling to fix your ignorance doesn't change the fact that it can't happen.

One man’s ignorance, is another’s last hope...

[Kellhound]

And irrelevant, because Trump is a real estate mogul, that will not risk destroying his own corporation... even if he could.

What is so hard to understand about the difference between what can be done and what should be done?

[nonameelf]

Morning, missed anything?
I see Mr Trump hasn't twatted anymore, guess it was bedtime

He had a news conference in a parking lot between a dildo store and a crematorium.

[beanman12345]

What is so hard to understand about the difference between what can be done and what should be done?

idk why don't you tell us, because you obviously don't know the definition of can.

[Felya]

What is so hard to understand about the difference between what can be done and what should be done?

You tell me... I am saying what can happen, not what should... which part confused you? You think I am saying Trump’s property should be burned down? No... I am saying if Trump can use your tact, then people can burn down his property. See... not should...

[Mifuyne]

Not unless you didn't see the landscaper news conference. It definitely took over the pornhub/cnn shop as my 2nd favorite thing to happen in the past week.

No, just arguing how Trump plans to steal the election... you know... just another day under Trump presidency.

Didn't miss much then, the whole four season's thing is comedy gold and yeah, I wouldn't expect someone like him to concede with dignity.

[Breccia]

Biden Wins — Pretty Convincingly In The End
-- Nate Silver

Even if you knew in advance about the “blue shift” that would occur in states like Pennsylvania — and we did know in advance about it! — it’s been hard to make enough of a mental adjustment for it this week. Numbers flashing across a TV ticker have a certain magnetic power and certitude to them. It was easy to forget that Joe Biden would gain ground once mail votes were added to the tallies because such votes were overwhelmingly Democratic this year in Pennsylvania and most other states.

But just because of that blue shift — and the red shift that occurred in states where mail votes were counted first — that doesn’t mean the presidential race was all that close in the end. Joe Biden’s win was on the tighter side of the likely range of outcomes suggested by polls, but it was a thoroughly convincing one judged on its own merits.

So put aside your anxieties of the past few days and the premature media narratives that have been circulating since Tuesday night. Suppose, instead, that you’d been on one of those weekslong rafting trips in the Grand Canyon (sounds pleasant, doesn’t it?) and woke up to this map:

It’s not a landslide, by any means, but this is a map that almost any Democrat would have been thrilled about if you’d shown it to them a year ago. Biden looks to have reclaimed the three “blue wall” states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin (ABC News has announced that Biden is the “apparent winner” in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin1) — that were central to Hillary Clinton’s loss. He may also win Arizona (he would become the first Democrat to do so since 1996) and, in the opposite corner of the country, Georgia (the first Democratic winner there since 1992). Additionally, Biden easily won Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which could be a thorn in the side of Republicans going forward. He also ran far ahead of Clinton in rural northern states such as Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire.

Extrapolating out from current vote totals, I project Biden winning the popular vote by 4.3 percentage points and getting 81.8 million votes to President Trump’s 74.9 million, with a turnout of around 160 million. This is significant because no candidate has ever received 70 million votes in an election — former President Barack Obama came the closest in 2008, with 69.5 million votes — let alone 80 million. That may also be a slightly conservative projection, given the blue shift we’ve seen so far and the fact that late-counted votes such as provisional ballots often lean Democratic. I’d probably bet on Biden’s popular vote margin winding up at closer to 5 points than to 4, and 6 points isn’t entirely out of the question either.

The margin is also a bit more impressive in the context of our highly polarized political era, which has tended to produce close elections. If I’m right about the popular vote margin, Biden’s win would come via the second-largest popular vote margin since 2000, exceeding Obama’s 3.9-point margin against Mitt Romney in 2012 but lagging behind Obama’s 7.3-point win over John McCain in 2008.

It goes on from there with House and Senate etc.

Biden's lead in the polls was so strong, it out-performed polling error caused by Trump supporters lying to pollsters, because they're ashamed to admit they fell for Trump's bullshit.

[PhaelixWW]

Yes it was the largest, but Biden still had a smaller vote difference in actual numbers than Obama had in his runs. Trump is the 10th to only have one term in office.

4 million comes to 3%. That really is NOT impressive against Trump. 10 million I what I was expecting Biden to win by, conservatively. Biden could not help the Dems from losing seats in the House. You have to win both upcoming run-off elections to control the Senate via Harris tie-breaker.

Well, people are predicting that another 5m votes or so still have yet to be tabulated, and like the ones we've recently been watching, those are all likely to be mail-in votes or otherwise slant very heavily towards Biden. He could quite easily pull out another 3-4m votes and raise his national popular vote lead to maybe 6-7m.

Edit: It's just under 145m right now, so we can check back and see later.

[Kellhound]

people can rationalize supporting anything. even separating children from their families & locking them in cages like animals while simultaneously putting #savethechildren on social media.

Some people rationalize supporting Trump, some rationalize supporting Biden. Doesn't change what I said.

[Kaleredar]

I think it's important to note that they get replaced and their vote gets voided in the process. And this can continue until the newly selected Elector votes according to the State requirement.

This isn't even a case where a faithless elector can dump a vote and get fired and say "Nyah, but my vote is still in". That's not how it works.

I find it equally funny that they think that the democratic-appointed-electors chosen by the Democratic Party in states that voted for the democratic nominee would just say “you know what? Fuck it! #YOLO!” and just vote trump instead of Biden.

Do they not realize how much democrats absolutely and almost universally despise trump?

[Kellhound]

I think it's important to note that they get replaced and their vote gets voided in the process. And this can continue until the newly selected Elector votes according to the State requirement.

This isn't even a case where a faithless elector can dump a vote and get fired and say "Nyah, but my vote is still in". That's not how it works.

If, and ONLY if, the state they are representing has a law specifically allowing for it.

[beanman12345]

That’s great... those people are fine with who ever is president... Republicans can’t even get majority of voters... no need to expand beyond that...

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One man’s ignorance, is another’s last hope...

Ironic, since trump crush's hope, enemy or ally.

[Kellhound]

Yup. The only thing kellhound has said that's correct in the past few pages is that there aren't enough states with the "replace" laws to get to 270 votes.

Seeing that is what I have been saying for the past few pages...

[starlord]

Some people rationalize supporting Trump, some rationalize supporting Biden. Doesn't change what I said.

sure, doesn't explain how they drop trump like a hot potato after losing unless they just wanted to see him smear feces all over the office of president.

[Felya]

Some people rationalize supporting Trump, some rationalize supporting Biden. Doesn't change what I said.

Yes, but one is a lot different than the other... like... trying to get the tax payer to be liable for his rape defamation suit... different...

[Kellhound]

what about that whole duty and will of the people thing? Don’t you think trump would never do such a thing, so it’s moot to push it?

can and should do not mean the same thing!!!!!