Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Zaktar]

Early exit polls are not looking good. youth vote is down, a lot in a state that had one of the highest youth votes on nov 3rd. Hopefully later exit polls will shift it a lot higher.

Does that account for early voting though?

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Exit polling doesn't account for mail-in voting, which should heavily lean Democrat. And with in-person turnout appearing to be low, I'm still hopeful that means Republican turnout will be down meaningfully.

Should have refreshed I guess...

[Thepersona]

Jettisomething supposedly asked for their account to be deleted. While "waiting" they continued their keyboard based diarrhea outpouring.

If Uni is right, the forums are still flushing.

Thats... A weird way for him to flex but ok.

[Edge-]

Early exit polls are not looking good. youth vote is down, a lot in a state that had one of the highest youth votes on nov 3rd. Hopefully later exit polls will shift it a lot higher.

Exit polling is expected to favor Republicans, and with how widespread early/mail-in voting in they seem like they're as poor a predictor as they were in November.

[Omega10]

Exit polling is expected to favor Republicans, and with how widespread early/mail-in voting in they seem like they're as poor a predictor as they were in November.

It sounds like Thursday morning is the first time we'll see meaningful numbers.

[Edge-]

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/kentu...b6ec8ae0b62de3

Once again, Republicans simply change the rules of the game if they don't like them. Kentucky Republicans are likely going to pass legislation to gut the emergency powers of the Governor's office, currently occupied by Democrat Andy Beshear. His crime? Taking covid seriously and putting public safety measures in place.

Functionally, they want to take more authority away to erode separation of powers and centralize it where Republicans hold power, the Legislature.

Just a reminder that there apparently are no "Good Republicans" left in the political class.

[beanman12345]

Exit polling doesn't account for mail-in voting, which should heavily lean Democrat. And with in-person turnout appearing to be low, I'm still hopeful that means Republican turnout will be down meaningfully.

Does that account for early voting though?

Exit polling is expected to favor Republicans, and with how widespread early/mail-in voting in they seem like they're as poor a predictor as they were in November.

They have altered the way they are doing exit polls during the pandemic to include early and mail in voting. So it does include those. But exit polls are just a sample, and primarily used to figure out why things went the way they did after all the votes are counted. Take them all with a pinch of salt.

Example Nov 3rd exit polls showed primary reason for voting was economy, so I though Biden was fucked.

[Adam Jensen]

I am so fucking done with this garbage. Can we please just go to January 20th, inaugurate Biden and put this shit to bed?

[Edge-]

They have altered the way they are doing exit polls during the pandemic to include early and mail in voting. So it does include those. But exit polls are just a sample, and primarily used to figure out why things went the way they did after all the votes are counted. Take them all with a pinch of salt.

Example Nov 3rd exit polls showed primary reason for voting was economy, so I though Biden was fucked.

https://apnews.com/article/election-...ffd500d8aaaff8

No ballots, including absentee ballots received in advance of Election Day, can be counted until the polls close. But a state election board rule requires county election officials to begin processing absentee ballots — verifying signatures on the outer envelope, opening the envelopes and scanning the ballots — before Election Day. That should speed things up on election night. Still, some absentee ballots received by mail or in drop boxes up until 7 p.m. on Election Day will still need to be processed.

Except they don't count any votes until voting officially ends at 7PM ET today, so none of those early/mail in votes are factored into this since they haven't the foggiest clue what's inside them for another 30 minutes. And I'm not sure how one would conduct exit polls for mail-in voting, even. And I'm not seeing anything about them getting any exit polling data from early voters.

That the Nov. 3 exit polls seemed off should be a pretty big indicator that they shouldn't be used as a data point in isolation.

[Kathranis]

Turnout in DeKalb County, which Biden won with about 80% of the vote, has eclipsed the general election. Hopefully that's because of Democratic voter outreach.

[beanman12345]

https://apnews.com/article/election-...ffd500d8aaaff8



Except they don't count any votes until voting officially ends at 7PM ET today, so none of those early/mail in votes are factored into this since they haven't the foggiest clue what's inside them for another 30 minutes. And I'm not sure how one would conduct exit polls for mail-in voting, even. And I'm not seeing anything about them getting any exit polling data from early voters.

That the Nov. 3 exit polls seemed off should be a pretty big indicator that they shouldn't be used as a data point in isolation.

oh AP might not do exit polls that way, but CNN has shifted and does, which is where I was getting my info.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/ex...tional-results

Exit polls are surveys of a random sample of voters taken as they leave their polling place on election day. Absentee and early voters are represented by either telephone polls or in-person exit polls at early voting locations. Pollsters use the results to assess the makeup and opinions of the electorate.

They made sure to mention they are including early/mail in votes when they did the exit polls, so they are using the same methodolgy they used in their nov 3rd exit polls. I have CNN on in the background for the election coverage.

[Edge-]

Ah, interesting. I imagine using phones etc. makes it even less accurate, but we'll see how it nets out compared to Nov. and how close the exit polls were.

I don't have cable and generally dislike most of the talking heads on election day (lots of repetition of the same information, painful over-analysis of minutia to fill air time etc.), I usually follow a few liveblogs/trackers for the raw data and some minimal commentary/analysis.

Currently have NYT open and it looks like the earliest numbers are starting to trickle in (sub-1%), I'd be gobsmacked if they have anything resembling a result tonight. But I'll rest easy knowing that no matter who wins, Sidney Powell will claim that it's proof the vote was rigged by Democrats.

[Jettisawn]

Here is hoping Mitch cost the GOP control of the Senate. It's good that Democratic voters in Georgia still seem very engaged. Both Ossoff and Warnock did well to capitalize on all the politics of the past couple weeks.

[Edge-]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1782957.html

And the last-ditch hope Pence would ignore law and the fact that he doesn't have sole power to determine the winner of the election is dead, Pence has reportedly told Trump that he's no longer cashing those bad checks.

Alt-right is gonna be pretty fuckin pissed when they find out that being angry about losing doesn't somehow turn you into a winner.

[ranzino]

1pm local time is the schedule ? ~17h until joint session starts.

[Edge-]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...83537256976385

Don't worry, the guy that heads up the federal government and federal law enforcement agencies is @ing them on Twitter.

Antifa is sunk.

[thilicen]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...83537256976385

Don't worry, the guy that heads up the federal government and federal law enforcement agencies is @ing them on Twitter.

Antifa is sunk.

My dad is a cop, you guys! You'd better watch it!

[Felya]

My dad is a cop, you guys! You'd better watch it!

30 Rock did that joke best... The set up is Liz and her bf say ‘everyone has a cop uncle’... by the end of the episode, it turns out they are cousins...

[Breccia]

Antifa is sunk.

Huh, I was unaware the US govt had officially labeled Antifa a terrorist organization. Hey @Edge- have you seen where/when that happened? And also, how do you feel about leading questions?

[Corvus]

Trump just put out a statement saying reports Pence told him he couldn't act are fake need and that he had Pence are in agreement Pence can just change the results.

This just doesn't turn the pressure on Pence up to 11, it snaps off the knob.

[Hadriker]

Warnock/Loeffler is pretty much called at this point. Warnock is going to win. A few places have called it for him already

Osoff/Perdue is a little tighter, but the remaining votes are expected to heavily favor Osoff

NYT gives Warnock a 95% chance of winning, Osoff 79%

Its looking like the Dems might actually do it.