War (?) has broken out in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan

[Fuiking]

I find the turks and azeris disgusting in there cleansing. No suprises there...specially if you see the leadership of those 2 nations. And how they react to real and percieved threats.

[Easo]

In the meantime Azeri soldiers are having fun breaking gravestones in cemetary:
https://t.me/bagramyan26/24310

If Hillary was President

I have no idea what kind of substances you are using, but please, stop. So much WTF in just a single post.

[Easo]

This is probably the last post from me in this thread, but, surprisingly, Azerbaijan has published their losses. Also now all bufferzone regions have now been transferred to Azerbaijan without major issues.

Azerbaijan:
2783 dead soldiers
93 dead civilians
~300 dead Syrian cannon fodder (out of ~2.5k, obviously not included in the official losses)
100+ missing
103 not yet identified
1245 still in hospital

Armenia:
2425 dead soldiers (however 2718 dead bodies reported as of news from today, still being identified, names published for 1746 only)
"Hundreds" of missing soldiers, no specific data, unfortunetaly
54 dead civilians
40 civilians missing

Some 90k Armenians displaced.

So the official losses are close to 1:1, realistically, Armenians could have about thousand more, likely the same for Azeris as well. Even this proportion is a loss for Armenia - harder to absorb for a country with a bit less than 3 million versus 10 million.
Due to overall number dead, seems like total casualties of 10k vs 10k are reasonable with dead, wounded, missing, sick, etc. included. Azeris at the end were worn out to some degree, arguable exactly how big, even if it does not seem that way - but it is a catastrophe for Armenians.
Most losses were definitely in two big parts - Azeris suffering much more during breakthrough, then it fully reversed.



As for some other funny news - according to a journalist from Russia who was in Lachin in the last day before it's takeover, Russians are de facto controlling everything, including escorting Azeri soldiers for photo ops in the "retaken Lachin", then escorting them away. Twice. Azeris put up Azerbaijan's flag, made photos, took down the flag, got back into trucks and were escorted back.
Status quo, but how long can this last?

Oh, and USA is currently trying to procure An-2's and Mi-8's. This is likely about the drones...

P.S.
I was wrong about one thing - Donbas was not the first, Ethiopia was. Goverment did not do any talks, they just attacked. Seems to have worked again. Have fun, people, we are back to the "good old days" of solving conflicts.

[Easo]

Hey, time to necro this after a year, because, potentially, round 2?

Armenian troops killed in Azerbaijan border clash

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59308602

From different source we are talking, at this moment, at least 15 dead Armenians, 24 captured. There are videos of massive Azeri troop and vehicle movement as well as some destruction (ATGMed by Armenians).

This started after a series of Azeri/Armenians border conflicts after the war (border is still not marked), with each side repeating the same claims - Armenians saying that Azeris are slowly claiming small land parts (happened before the war as well), Azeris - that they are defending against Armenian provocations. But due to the real power dynamics I find it fucking hard to believe Baku's bullshit about defence. Too many reports, all with the same scenario.
Pushing into Armenia proper, basically, guesses are about controlling the access to Nakhichevan.

Armenian goverment is doing some playing around regarding involving CSTO defence pact (best scenario for them), but who knows how it will go. Moscow is asking both sides to stand down.

[Orange Joe]

Another wave of refugees incoming to Europe to flee from all of this misery that is war.

Man that region since Iraq fell is only getting worse and worse.

It goes back further than that. America has been actively destabilizing the region since WW2

[Ihavewaffles]

small border clashes has happened for years

[Easo]

Ceasefire announced. Previous ones have a history of failing within hours, we shall see. Armenia is saying that roughly 42 square kilometers have been lost.

It goes back further than that. America has been actively destabilizing the region since WW2

Caucasus has little to do with Iraq or migrants from there.

small border clashes has happened for years

This is not exactly small, small border clashes do not result in tens of casualties.

[Orange Joe]

Caucasus has little to do with Iraq or migrants from there.

Not what I'm saying, nor am I trying to blame this particular instance on the US.

[Ihavewaffles]

erdogan n his mini-erdogan...

[Biglog]

Azerbaijan has been violating the ceasefire for weeks/months with almost daily small actions, sniping and killing farmers, etc. pushing the limits to see what they could get away with, or perhaps seeing if they could prod Armenia into a response that they could then use as justification for a larger move.

In this case they stepped a bit too far, moving in armored vehicles, killing 15 Armenian soldiers, and taking around 6 Armenian soldiers prisoner (some of which were wounded). Russia is keeping the peace in this deal, and they had been quiet to the smaller actions by Azerbaijan, but this escalation prompted Russia to release a statement with Iran (who helps counter and is no fan of Azerbaijan) condemning the escalation and trying to settle things back down with a ceasefire agreement. We'll see how that holds.

Unfortunately for Armenia they are pretty much wholly dependent on threats from Russia to stop a full-scale invasion. The Azerbaijan military is just far better equipped and funded to the point of being a complete mismatch vs. Armenia. And large amounts of what equipment Armenia had was lost in the 2020 war. Ilyev (and Erdogan ftm) are chomping at the bit to take out Armenia. So it's a precarious time. I don't think Russia will, but if Putin ever pulls it's support or gives Erdogan the go-ahead in a shady exchange (ex. to get Turkey to buy more S-400s or other equipment, or to entice them to leave NATO), it would be all but over for Yerevan.

[Easo]

Azerbaijan has been violating the ceasefire for weeks/months with almost daily small actions, sniping and killing farmers, etc. pushing the limits to see what they could get away with, or perhaps seeing if they could prod Armenia into a response that they could then use as justification for a larger move.

In this case they stepped a bit too far, moving in armored vehicles, killing 15 Armenian soldiers, and taking around 6 Armenian soldiers prisoner (some of which were wounded). Russia is keeping the peace in this deal, and they had been quiet to the smaller actions by Azerbaijan, but this escalation prompted Russia to release a statement with Iran (who helps counter and is no fan of Azerbaijan) condemning the escalation and trying to settle things back down with a ceasefire agreement. We'll see how that holds.

Unfortunately for Armenia they are pretty much wholly dependent on threats from Russia to stop a full-scale invasion. The Azerbaijan military is just far better equipped and funded to the point of being a complete mismatch vs. Armenia. And large amounts of what equipment Armenia had was lost in the 2020 war. Ilyev (and Erdogan ftm) are chomping at the bit to take out Armenia. So it's a precarious time. I don't think Russia will, but if Putin ever pulls it's support or gives Erdogan the go-ahead in a shady exchange (ex. to get Turkey to buy more S-400s or other equipment, or to entice them to leave NATO), it would be all but over for Yerevan.

Roughly something like that. I also should correct my previous note about 42 square kilometers - it is 41 since May, total, as per the Armenian PM. Small bites all the time, provocations, etc. Current official captured soldier count is 12 in additional to the official 15 dead.

And of course we again have prisoner humiliation, should be surprise to no one. Well, I guess it's good that they are not cutting heads at least...
https://twitter.com/L_Team10/status/1460674372465745923
https://twitter.com/L_Team10/status/1460675642861703172

[Ihavewaffles]

Azerbaijan has been violating the ceasefire for weeks/months with almost daily small actions, sniping and killing farmers, etc. pushing the limits to see what they could get away with, or perhaps seeing if they could prod Armenia into a response that they could then use as justification for a larger move.

In this case they stepped a bit too far, moving in armored vehicles, killing 15 Armenian soldiers, and taking around 6 Armenian soldiers prisoner (some of which were wounded). Russia is keeping the peace in this deal, and they had been quiet to the smaller actions by Azerbaijan,

Because Russia sells weapons to both countries, I really wish we could trust Russia on this one..just look at them in Syria how they did nothing for the Kurds.

but this escalation prompted Russia to release a statement with Iran (who helps counter and is no fan of Azerbaijan) condemning the escalation and trying to settle things back down with a ceasefire agreement. We'll see how that holds.

Unfortunately for Armenia they are pretty much wholly dependent on threats from Russia to stop a full-scale invasion. The Azerbaijan military is just far better equipped and funded to the point of being a complete mismatch vs. Armenia. And large amounts of what equipment Armenia had was lost in the 2020 war. Ilyev (and Erdogan ftm) are chomping at the bit to take out Armenia. So it's a precarious time. I don't think Russia will, but if Putin ever pulls it's support or gives Erdogan the go-ahead in a shady exchange (ex. to get Turkey to buy more S-400s or other equipment, or to entice them to leave NATO), it would be all but over for Yerevan.

I wonder how Russia & Armenia changed things due to Azerbaijan's (Turkey's) effective drone strikes..I know Russia have developed a bunch of anti-drone stuff, have lots of jammers n what not, but any specific measure to counter such a foe? If they don't use Armenia to test in actual war, then Putin is stupid (or greedy sob that values genocidal turk monies..

[Easo]

Ceasefire is "mostly holding". Azerbaijan published their losses - 7 dead and 10 wounded. It looks like Azeris are de facto few kilometers inside Armenia proper - I have to remind that yesterdays offensive did not happen anywhere near Karabakh.

If this stops there then in couple of months I expect the small territorial "bites" to continue... Vae victis, truly.

Because Russia sells weapons to both countries, I really wish we could trust Russia on this one..just look at them in Syria how they did nothing for the Kurds.


I wonder how Russia & Armenia changed things due to Azerbaijan's (Turkey's) effective drone strikes..I know Russia have developed a bunch of anti-drone stuff, have lots of jammers n what not, but any specific measure to counter such a foe? If they don't use Armenia to test in actual war, then Putin is stupid (or greedy sob that values genocidal turk monies..

What is Russia supposed to do with Kurds??? They are not allied with Assad, thus they, at best, are just "neutral" in Russian eyes.

Also those drone strikes did not paint the full picture, but I see people still falling for the marketing campaign...

[jonnysensible]

If this stops there then in couple of months I expect the small territorial "bites" to continue... Vae victis, truly.

great more images of captured Armenians being beheaded coming right up

[Ihavewaffles]

It looks like Azeris are de facto few kilometers inside Armenia proper - I have to remind that yesterdays offensive did not happen anywhere near Karabakh.

And suppose major war happens, what will dear senile "leader" of the free world Biden say n do?

People gave Trump shit for letting the turks do ethnic cleansing, will Biden also stand aside?

What is Russia supposed to do with Kurds??? They are not allied with Assad, thus they, at best, are just "neutral" in Russian eyes.

Reason given to enter war was to stop jihadist evil forces, not to hold Assad's hand...

[Easo]

And suppose major war happens, what will dear senile "leader" of the free world Biden say n do?

People gave Trump shit for letting the turks do ethnic cleansing, will Biden also stand aside?



Reason given to enter war was to stop jihadist evil forces, not to hold Assad's hand...

What Biden has to do with Armenia? There is no alliance here. Why not ask any other random nation, say, Chile or Bangladesh?
Ask CSTO leader, Putin, what would happen, since Armenia is part of it.

Russia absolutely oficially entered the war to support the official Syrian goverment - read, Assad. Sometimes you really should stop posting...

great more images of captured Armenians being beheaded coming right up

Regarding the PoW videos (which, IIRC, are also illegal by themselves), let me quote this from random place on internet (google translate it):

"Опубликованы кадры пленников. В некоторых случаях мы можем стать свидетелями применения физической силы нашими солдатами против них.

Решительно не допускать распространения подобных сцен.

Мы выступаем против насилия в отношении военнопленных, и мы должны предотвратить распространение таких материалов."

Because, you see, abusing war prisoners is lesser issue than actually filming it, bad press and all

[Ihavewaffles]

What Biden has to do with Armenia? There is no alliance here. Why not ask any other random nation, say, Chile or Bangladesh?
Ask CSTO leader, Putin, what would happen, since Armenia is part of it.

Bull.

Then usa wouldn't be in so many wars.

Clearly they support the turks n have written off the armenians, this is another example, similar to yemen.

Russia absolutely oficially entered the war to support the official Syrian goverment - read, Assad. Sometimes you really should stop posting...

Protect their territorial integrity, to protect gas pipeline deal, whether assad was alive or not, not as important. turkish interests showed moscow didn't truly respect syria, this was sold as defeating jihadist scum in the beginning...

[Easo]

Bull.

Then usa wouldn't be in so many wars.

Clearly they support the turks n have written off the armenians, this is another example, similar to yemen.



Protect their territorial integrity, to protect gas pipeline deal, whether assad was alive or not, not as important. turkish interests showed moscow didn't truly respect syria, this was sold as defeating jihadist scum in the beginning...

What are you now even ranting about? Well, yes, USA supports their allies, but for fucks sake get a grip - there are no ties between Armenia and USA aside from Kardashian's fat ass and SOAD.

Not even sure what your point is here about "respecting Syria".

[DarkTZeratul]

People gave Trump shit for letting the turks do ethnic cleansing, will Biden also stand aside?

...Because the Kurds were our allies in the region and Trump abandoned them. We have no ties to the Armenians.

[JohnBrown1917]

...Because the Kurds were our allies in the region and Trump abandoned them. We have no ties to the Armenians.

And the Turks are still allies.