An insight on Bitcoin

[hellhamster]

Evergrande, one of the biggest real estate developers in the world, is close to a collapse, as a few hours ago a German firm has filed charges when financing repayment fell flat. That is causing ripples across markets, likely inching the mega company into a $300 billion default.

What basically happens is investors are panicking and are dumping anything real estate related bonds/contracts/derivatives/stocks etc on the market to avoid having to sell everything when it's too late for half the price. This probable sellout is causing a chain reaction across all markets, very similar to the 2008 crisis.

I personally believe this has already been priced in since the likely default became apparent a few months ago, and that central banks have learned from their mistakes from 2008 to avoid causing a global meltdown, but I can't trust that as far as I can throw it.

The stock and crypto markets are a good indication of future panic sells, they kinda dropped since the news came out, but it looks like they have absorbed the hit so far.

Be very careful with your holdings, in crypto, stocks etc, the music is slowing down.

[crewskater]

LOL, good luck with that.

I've bought bitcoin with cash before. There are multiple ways of doing it. I'm willing to bet you've never purchased anything with crypto before.

[hellhamster]

I've bought bitcoin with cash before. There are multiple ways of doing it. I'm willing to bet you've never purchased anything with crypto before.

LOL, and how did that go exactly? You went to the guy irl and you gave him an envelope with money, and he gave you a USB stick? Ahahaah.

Look guys, the future of tax evasion! Meanwhile I can call my buddies at Switzerland or the Seychelles or any country basically that has their own banking laws and tell them I'm dropping a couple mil off the books, if they can take care of it please thank you very much.

- - - Updated - - -

Bitcoin is looking very healthy and bullish as long as it closes this Sunday above the bull market support band at 51.5k, and will exit this sideways crab action when it closes the daily above 66k. I will be ultra bullish if we dump all the way to 51.5k, then bounce off that. If something similar to that happens, then this cycle will be lengthened and the next part of my post will have to increase that number by a few dozen k.

I am inching closer to predicting this cycle top for bitcoin, it might be looking like a local top as long as market conditions are ripe. That means ever increasing inflation, and either a small central bank tapering or none whatsoever. If conditions change and central banks are starting to yell about deflation and increasing rates, China banning bitcoin again, Tether imploding, Evergrande becoming real, then that will be a cycle top that will start the bear cycle for all markets. That can still happen at any moment.

The top for now, either local or cyclical, will be 78k-84k for Bitcoin. Assuming we will have a small gracing period similar to the body reacting to radioactivity, basically looking completely cured before dying the next day, the market will trade sideways, alts will go up a bit, then dump hard. Some alts are looking good for a recovery even in a bear cycle.

I wouldn't obviously sell immediately, first I will want to see buying volume dying. Bitcoin will also have to burst through the bull market support band that will be around 60k by then. That's the biggest if that can make my whole theory void. I will 100% be buying back if a bounce happens.

The way I came up with that theory is fractals. The market is looking exactly like prior to the March highs. Smart money that accumulated during the summer lull below 40k will be looking to sell at 2x. That and my prediction that bitcoin has been moving exactly on par with the three peaks and a domed house pattern since last year October, all those things put bitcoin at roughly 80k as the top at best.

[Strawberry]

LOL, and how did that go exactly? You went to the guy irl and you gave him an envelope with money, and he gave you a USB stick? Ahahaah.

Look guys, the future of tax evasion! Meanwhile I can call my buddies at Switzerland or the Seychelles or any country basically that has their own banking laws and tell them I'm dropping a couple mil off the books, if they can take care of it please thank you very much.

EDIT:
I misunderstood the post. Cash, as in physical money. I don't see the reason why it would be impossible.
Bring cash and let the other guy transfer BTC digitally to you and make sure it's done before you hand over the cash.

Localbitcoins.com
I've done it myself, but mostly sell my mining income.
In Sweden it's rather easy with something called Swish which you connect to your bank. It's like sending an sms with money attached to it. The bank/government doesn't care if it's small-ish ammounts (I've probably sold around €5000 worth of BTC).

[hellhamster]

EDIT:
I misunderstood the post. Cash, as in physical money. I don't see the reason why it would be impossible.
Bring cash and let the other guy transfer BTC digitally to you and make sure it's done before you hand over the cash.

Localbitcoins.com
I've done it myself, but mostly sell my mining income.
In Sweden it's rather easy with something called Swish which you connect to your bank. It's like sending an sms with money attached to it. The bank/government doesn't care if it's small-ish ammounts (I've probably sold around €5000 worth of BTC).

My point was that it's not widespread and it's very dangerous or expensive if you trade bitcoins outside of exchanges, either decentralised or centralised. I'd advise heavily against selling crypto to unknowns through physical wallets.

I've seen firsthand that there are whatsapp groups where you can order drugs from supposedly legit and proper drug sellers, but you never know what the hell is gonna happen. Might be the police on the other end baiting.

You are also talking about small amounts like 5k. The bank or the government doesn't care about reporting small amounts, you are right about that, but the bank usually reports to the government how much money you have on your accounts, and your employer reports how much you earn. If you can't declare the right amounts in any other fiscal activity, the government will tax you accordingly. It's not a big deal, but you can't easily evade taxes if you can't declare that missing money.

That's why it's just easier setting up an off shore account that doesn't report earnings to the government of origin. That's slowly changing of course, new laws within the EU make it harder to hide money. You could hide money if you're from the EU to Switzerland until 2018, you can't anymore. There are other choices though. I believe there's a legit bank in Germany that can set you up with an account without identification, but this is merely a rumor I've heard so I can't verify it easily.

[Strawberry]

My point was that it's not widespread and it's very dangerous or expensive if you trade bitcoins outside of exchanges, either decentralised or centralised. I'd advise heavily against selling crypto to unknowns through physical wallets. For example, I've seen firsthand that there are whatsapp groups where you can order drugs from supposedly legit and proper drug sellers, but you never know what the hell is gonna happen. Might be the police on the other end baiting.

You are also talking about small amounts like 5k. The bank or the government doesn't care about reporting small amounts, you are right about that, but the bank usually reports to the government how much money you have on your accounts, and your employer reports how much you earn. If you can't declare the right amounts in any other fiscal activity, the government will tax you accordingly. It's not a big deal, but you can't easily evade taxes if you can't declare that missing money.

That's why it's just easier setting up an off shore account that doesn't report earnings to the government of origin. That's slowly changing of course, new laws within the EU make it harder to hide money. You could hide money if you're from the EU to Switzerland until 2018, you can't anymore. There are other choices though. I believe there's a legit bank in Germany that can set you up with an account without identification, but this is merely a rumor I've heard so I can't verify it easily.

Doesn't quite work that way in Sweden.
I've been using Swish for years now and even pay for my sisters and dads apartment, although they send me money.
That's some €2000/month that comes in on my account from unknown people and it's been happening for 3 or so years now. No one asked anything.
Damage of course could be done by localbitcoins if the amount was huge, but no one cares about a small fish like me.

I had €10.000 in cash in 2017 or something. I deposited that money to bank during a 1 month period (went once per week). If you came with a huge amount of money that's when questions would rise. But if you had that much illegal money then you could just start a couple of business and use them to transfer cash into digital currency as well as open accounts in different banks and then insert a smaller amount every week.
When it comes to buying crypto, I don't see why anyone would have anything to say how you spend your money, unless it's to finance terrorism.

When it comes to selling lots of crypto, yeah it gets complicated. Or really easy, depending on if you want to just pay up and sleep well or try to keep the money by going the very risky way.

[hellhamster]

It's still very early, but the Nasdaq is looking ok compared to Japan and EU markets, Bitcoin and the rest of crypto usually follows that.

I don't think we're done dumping yet, there is still ways to go. Bitcoin hasn't looked good for weeks, this drop was many days in the making. Bears are temporarily in control, but the key levels are still looking ok so far. These are 52.5k for the weekly close on Sunday, but bitcoin can still wick down to 50.5k and still be bullish. Below that, and I will sound all the alarms.

The markets are designed to take the maximum amount of profit from the highest amount of traders. This happens by hitting high liquidity pools and liquidating the highest amount of people, bears or bulls. I wrote in a previous post weeks ago that the most bullish thing to happen is a backtest of vital support by dropping down to the bullish control zone and bouncing off that. That control zone is at 52.5k now. If we see a bounce off that, I will revise my strategy completely where I had 78k as the market cycle top, because it will likely hit much higher and will be a prolonged cycle.

If this drop was based on bad Covid news and not technicals, then I will be very optimistic.

Right now, we are poking at the bear market entrance, seeing if it's open. If it's closed, there is no other way to go but up. If it's open, then we are ready for another 3 to 6 month Wyckoff accumulation phase similar to the one we had in the summer, with the lowest point being 40-41kish. There is a lot of money to be made in either case.

This week will be bad and boring, but it will show us where the markets are heading.

[Calfredd]

Bitcoin prices suffered a modest pullback over the last few days, dropping close to 10% after reaching their latest all-time high of nearly $69,000

Why is this post literally the only post of your that isn't copy/pasted from someone else?

[Zan15]

Bitcoin prices suffered a modest pullback over the last few days, dropping close to 10% after reaching their latest all-time high of nearly $69,000

umm but my math says its down 20%

[Calfredd]

umm but my math says its down 20%

My math says he's probably a bot; every post except this one is a copy/paste of someone else's.

[hellhamster]

Bitcoin is facing big resistance at the 21 day exponential moving average, sitting at around 58.7k.

As long as it closes below it on the daily, there will be no increase in price and it will just move sideways for all eternity, with a bias towards the downside but with very strong support between the 21 week moving average and 21 week exponential moving average, which is 51k to 53k.

When it closes above 58.7k, then the party continues. Until that point, scalp trading or trading the ranges is a decent trading strategy, until bitcoin decides to start becoming volatile again, which is inevitable. It's forming various trading patterns right now, but the biggest probability is an inverse head and shoulders pattern taking place on the daily, which has a strong bullish bias for the remainder of the week as long as bitcoin closes the daily above 54k. Always beware of fakeouts, check volume before doing anything.

Tldr:

If btc is higher than 58.7k at 02:00 CET: GREEN
If btc is higher than 54k at 02:00 CET: GREENish
If btc is lower than 54k at 02:00 CET: YELLOW
If BTC is lower than 51k at 02:00 CET this Sunday: RED ALERT, sell everything, short everything, it's officially over.

- - - Updated - - -

I just checked the Dollar strength index today, and I'm seeing some horrifying stuff for the coming couple years for crypto and other markets, which was half-validated over an hour or so ago. Some big people made the same connection as me, which caused a steep hourly red candle. Either that or my 58.7k resistance on a technical level was validated, but I think it's the former:

The FED announced tapering coming several months earlier than expected. This is huge, and if it's true, would solve 2 major problems prematurely: cooling of skyrocketing prices of assets, gas and oil, and secondly, strengthening the dollar. If the DXY with the dollar breaks out, this will create a bi-yearly bear market for the vast majority of markets that aren't the USD. This announcement caused a big increase of the DXY, which is in the middle of a breakout from a 5 year long market structure, probably hitting the 114 region within the next couple years. And this is fuckhuge.

What does tapering mean? Central banks spend billions every month to acquire assets as a positive thrust to the markets, which is quantitative easing. If overdone, this leads to zombie economies, which is what we've been facing the last years. By tapering, central banks get a limit on how much they can spend monthly. This causes all sorts of chaos and loss of market equilibrium. It has to happen eventually, or stuff will really spiral out of control. A premature call for tapering might even be the right call, because a lower amount of quantitative easing can kinda put a halt on inflation, but it will also cause huge problems for the global economy. Here's why:

The way big market movers have been working the last several years has been pretty cut and dry. They are kinda iffy on fiat, they trade USD for other currencies, assets, crypto, commodities, futures, options and other derivatives, because it makes them more money. They don't see money as money, they see money in relation to other stuff they can trade with. And so far, it's been damn effective. Until now to a few years in the future.

Hoarding dollars will be more profitable, because the dollar value will increase in relation to other markets. This will cause a lot of big players to pull money from other markets and invest in USD. If we see a dollar mania, this will likely cause a short term decline in prices that will last a couple years.

The DXY is inversely correlated to crypto. It won't bring it to a death spiral, but it will slow it down. We will see a 40k bitcoin again in the near future, which is pretty much a guarantee. It may have probably prolonged the bull market by several years by causing a medium term pullback.

For the rest of the global economy, the Euro, Yen, Yuan, Peso, Ruble etc will face a steep decline, which will spiral into a bigger inflationary event than everything combined so far. They will likely follow the FED and announce the call of premature tapering of their own just to prevent any panic spreading.

This was over a year in the making, I don't think it will be that bad, I am actually anticipating the markets to absorb the hit because it has been inevitable.

[ranzino]

58.8k now as of wednesday 5:30 pm CET
unless btc crashes down 6k we are good ?

[hellhamster]

58.8k now as of wednesday 5:30 pm CET
unless btc crashes down 6k we are good ?

If it closes the daily above 58.7k, yes, 8 more hours to go. That's a big resistance it has to overcome, as you might have noticed it has difficulty staying above it. It's looking pretty good so far though. This week's very bad news barely made a dent. If it has trouble however clearing above it after a few hours, get ready for another dump to 55kish.

There are many more resistances to go before going for new all time highs, but that's the first one to overcome. Plus, it's December first, which means old options have expired. This usually means a pump is on its way.

Statistically, beginning of each month is pumpy, ending of each month is dumpy. What causes this is simple: if price jumps too high the first half of each month, people are massively shorting at the end of the month to avoid liquidating their perpetual options. The opposite is also true.

[Zan15]

hmmm not exactly going according to plan today taking a huge dump.

[hellhamster]

hmmm not exactly going according to plan today taking a huge dump.

"As long as it closes below it on the daily, there will be no increase in price and it will just move sideways for all eternity, with a bias towards the downside but with very strong support between the 21 week moving average and 21 week exponential moving average, which is 51k to 53k."

Pretty much the definition of going according to plan.

This wasn't even a hard call to make. Like I had said, what the FED did was huge. They probably wanted a cool-off of stocks and commodities by threatening with calls of tapering and thereby increasing rates, crypto just follows. It even stays on the range I called almost a week ago.

Everything is still good so far, dropping down, clearing interest rates and bouncing back is basically the best case scenario for 2022. The bad thing being of course, is if it doesn't bounce back on the key levels I had mentioned.

On the other side of the range, closing above the 21 day moving average (=58.3k) would put a stop on the crab and resume the bull. Let's see if bitcoin's swing failure pattern propels a pump by liquidating shorts. Any daily close above the 99 day moving average of 54.5k would signal a significant reversal. Looking iffy so far, volume just isn't there, it looks like it wants to retest 51kish again.

SO TLDR: cheat sheet (nothing has changed, market structure is the same). And as always, beware of fakeouts, just wait it out.

BTC > 21 day moving average close at 02:00 CET of any day (58.3k) = ultra green
BTC > 99 day moving average (54.5k) tonight by 02:00 CET= decent green
21 week moving average < 21 week exponential moving average < BTC < 21 day moving average (58.3k) close at 02:00 CET in the coming days = yellow
BTC < 21 week moving average (51k) by this Sunday 02:00 CET = red, sell everything, buy back at 39k-41k.

Bitcoin has a few more days to decide what it really wants to do, it won't take much longer before we're out of the yellow territory of these past weeks.

- - - Updated - - -

Ooooh lala, now it's spicy. I woke up to a price alert telling me it broke through big supports and major trendlines and it's on freefall. Small support is at 48kish, bigger one at 41k.

Only hope so far is a pump to 53k. There are 43 hours left to reach that as the weekly candle closes. Then it's capitulation. The stock market as well as other asset markets will be bloody on Monday.

We'll have a small bear cycle after that, probably about 3 to 6 months until tapering happens, then the real sell-off will begin. But first we need 43 hours for the weekly to confirm that price movement, it can still just be a shakeout, although this is looking like the real deal.

I'm gambling that the FED will turn the money printer on again if the stock market looks really bad on Monday. Bear markets are boring. Nothing to do but DCA your paycheck every month and wait.

[jonnysensible]

https://twitter.com/whale_alert/stat...16335851360260

lol

[hellhamster]

https://twitter.com/whale_alert/stat...16335851360260

lol

https://twitter.com/whale_alert/stat...55858228494353

Haha brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr haha.

[Zan15]

SNIP

We'll have a small bear cycle after that, probably about 3 to 6 months until tapering happens, then the real sell-off will begin. But first we need 43 hours for the weekly to confirm that price movement, it can still just be a shakeout, although this is looking like the real deal.

I'm gambling that the FED will turn the money printer on again if the stock market looks really bad on Monday. Bear markets are boring. Nothing to do but DCA your paycheck every month and wait.

Sorry to focus on just one part, but I swore you confirmed your 6 figure call just a few months ago and just pushed it back till next year? Hmm, seems it was edited out of your response, i guess.

Now you are saying its due for a free fall?

I am more about the long term trends/predictions on the stock market and all investments for that matter, then the attempt to cover all basis weekly/monthly predictions.

[hellhamster]

Sorry to focus on just one part, but I swore you confirmed your 6 figure call just a few months ago and just pushed it back till next year? Hmm, seems it was edited out of your response, i guess.

Now you are saying its due for a free fall?

I am more about the long term trends/predictions on the stock market and all investments for that matter, then the attempt to cover all basis weekly/monthly predictions.

6 figures were pretty much guaranteed if the markets moved in ceteris paribus, but the world had other plans.

None of these black swan events had happened half a year ago when I made that call:

1. Chinese real estate market collapsing with a $50 trillion deficit once Evergrande defaults, which is due probably by next week. This will domino hard on the rest of the markets.
2. FED threats of tapering earlier than expected due to inflation (I had predicted a hyperinflationary event, but I expected it to hit around Q4 2022, not now). This is enormous as it will cause a deflationary event that will pump USD and fuck everything else to the ground for months/years. This is all assuming the FED isn't lying and they will taper as early as Q2/Q3 2022. US debt ceiling raise by 15th December should give us breadcrumbs on the way markets will be headed.
3. New COVID strains leading to new lockdowns and old vaccines not working probably (remains to be seen, I think this one is actually priced in.)

Basically all hell broke loose the past few weeks. That bitcoin is holding on close to 50k yet is a goddamn miracle. Crypto is ahead of the curve right now because this basically all got spearheaded Friday night when the rest of the markets were closed. Crypto will be tanking, stocks should be tanking, oil, real estate, derivatives should all be tanking tomorrow. Will they actually tank, or will they hold on? No one knows. What I do know though is that crypto will be taking a month long winter sleep, probably much longer if the markets are nuked tomorrow.

My honest thoughts? I think the FED is basically causing psychological warfare among investors, because they are scared shitless of the dollar getting nuked. How I feel about it and how the markets see it are two completely different things though.

[Zan15]

6 figures were pretty much guaranteed if the markets moved in ceteris paribus, but the world had other plans.

None of these black swan events had happened half a year ago when I made that call:

1. Chinese real estate market collapsing with a $50 trillion deficit once Evergrande defaults, which is due probably by next week. This will domino hard on the rest of the markets.
2. FED threats of tapering earlier than expected due to inflation (I had predicted a hyperinflationary event, but I expected it to hit around Q4 2022, not now). This is enormous as it will cause a deflationary event that will pump USD and fuck everything else to the ground for months/years. This is all assuming the FED isn't lying and they will taper as early as Q2/Q3 2022. US debt ceiling raise by 15th December should give us breadcrumbs on the way markets will be headed.
3. New COVID strains leading to new lockdowns and old vaccines not working probably (remains to be seen, I think this one is actually priced in.)

Basically all hell broke loose the past few weeks. That bitcoin is holding on close to 50k yet is a goddamn miracle. Crypto is ahead of the curve right now because this basically all got spearheaded Friday night when the rest of the markets were closed. Crypto will be tanking, stocks should be tanking, oil, real estate, derivatives should all be tanking tomorrow. Will they actually tank, or will they hold on? No one knows. What I do know though is that crypto will be taking a month long winter sleep, probably much longer if the markets are nuked tomorrow.

My honest thoughts? I think the FED is basically causing psychological warfare among investors, because they are scared shitless of the dollar getting nuked. How I feel about it and how the markets see it are two completely different things though.

Well, that's silly, it's never anywhere near "pretty much guaranteed" since it requires unicorns to shit gold and an unprecedented market bull run to continue.

No way was the Chinese real estate market a black swan, it was a dead swan that was just waiting to decompose. Besides is Evergrande's ever going to default? People keep saying "this week" "next week".
Will the govt of China let it? Maybe if they want to come in after the collapse for total cheap control? Not that they couldn't already do that, but they would have to deal with the foreign investments that could spill over into other markets.


Going to skip FED talk because that is something I don't want to touch with you with a 50 ft pole.


As far as the market I think we are just going to have a spikey few week(s) till the Omicron thing settles out in the US. Futures thankfully are much more stable tonight then most people were expecting.

The market needs a nice correction and some reality injected like a vaccine into its ass. It's scary how much worse this bubble looks than the past 3-4 bubbles I have lived through in the last 50+ years. Almost seems like the "Voltron" of bubbles, pulling in many parts to make an uber huge bubble.


- It has real estate problem
- Overvalued stocks and a massive bucket of worthless companies being valued like its 1999 all over again.
- Retail trading/gambling/options problem.
- Leverage problem.
- Inflation driven by supply problems and by corp/business profit push. All while blame is being placed on pols (Biden/Dems), so they get away with pricing in a nice profit boost on top of covering cost without the negative press. All to get that short term stock bump.
- Crypto problem. Massive amounts of shit crypto pump and dumps. Massive leverage in the few that are even close to being considered "good".




P.S how about that XRP. Yikers thought it was going to crash to 20 cents for a little while there.