An insight on Bitcoin

[hellhamster]

Well, that's silly, it's never anywhere near "pretty much guaranteed" since it requires unicorns to shit gold and an unprecedented market bull run to continue.

No way was the Chinese real estate market a black swan, it was a dead swan that was just waiting to decompose. Besides is Evergrande's ever going to default? People keep saying "this week" "next week".
Will the govt of China let it? Maybe if they want to come in after the collapse for total cheap control? Not that they couldn't already do that, but they would have to deal with the foreign investments that could spill over into other markets.


Going to skip FED talk because that is something I don't want to touch with you with a 50 ft pole.


As far as the market I think we are just going to have a spikey few week(s) till the Omicron thing settles out in the US. Futures thankfully are much more stable tonight then most people were expecting.

The market needs a nice correction and some reality injected like a vaccine into its ass. It's scary how much worse this bubble looks than the past 3-4 bubbles I have lived through in the last 50+ years. Almost seems like the "Voltron" of bubbles, pulling in many parts to make an uber huge bubble.


- It has real estate problem
- Overvalued stocks and a massive bucket of worthless companies being valued like its 1999 all over again.
- Retail trading/gambling/options problem.
- Leverage problem.
- Inflation driven by supply problems and by corp/business profit push. All while blame is being placed on pols (Biden/Dems), so they get away with pricing in a nice profit boost on top of covering cost without the negative press. All to get that short term stock bump.
- Crypto problem. Massive amounts of shit crypto pump and dumps. Massive leverage in the few that are even close to being considered "good".




P.S how about that XRP. Yikers thought it was going to crash to 20 cents for a little while there.

Market structure, overall bullishness of the markets, increasing scarcity, decreasing exchange volume, decreasing miner selling incentive, whale wallet distribution, etc, all had bitcoin projecting 100k this year. What happened though was pump and dump shitcoins growing like mushrooms, the energy FUD, China banning bitcoin not once, but twice, and now markets have lost trust in the system with talks of tapering, Omicron variant being a big deal and Chinese real estate collapsing. These are black swan events.

Evergrande by itself is not a problem, it's a couple hundred billion should it default, but the Chinese real estate market is leveraged to the tits up and tied to it. That is where the $50 trillion projection is coming from.

I don't know why you wanna skip the FED talk, it's pretty much the hottest topic right now. You're probably one of those who denies that we are in an inflationary crisis, probably attributing price hikes to supply shock. While supply shock played a role obviously, it doesn't attribute to 6.2% inflation in October all by itself.

I agree about the short term, it looks worse than it is. Long term is looking overly due for an ultra correction.

[Zan15]

Market structure, overall bullishness of the markets, increasing scarcity, decreasing exchange volume, decreasing miner selling incentive, whale wallet distribution, etc, all had bitcoin projecting 100k this year. What happened though was pump and dump shitcoins growing like mushrooms, the energy FUD, China banning bitcoin not once, but twice, and now markets have lost trust in the system with talks of tapering, Omicron variant being a big deal and Chinese real estate collapsing. These are black swan events.

.

Most of those were expected and predicted especially the Bitcoin bans.

All of Crypto has been a pump and dump scheme for the most part.

Chinese real estate? Please it's been clear for almost a half-decade this time was coming. Problem is there is so much gambling people will just keep piling in till the day it collapses. Or will the govt bail it out by making the problem "disappear" at the cost to foreign investors and its population?

Variant, i mean ummm everyone called it over a year and a half ago that there was a huge chance of bad variants. Its already happened what two times now?

Evergrande by itself is not a problem, it's a couple hundred billion should it default, but the Chinese real estate market is leveraged to the tits up and tied to it. That is where the $50 trillion projection is coming from.

.

meh the Chinese govt will just pull a 2008-2009 bail out. The rest of the world will just find excuses to ignore it while they keep buying the run.

I don't know why you wanna skip the FED talk, it's pretty much the hottest topic right now. You're probably one of those who denies that we are in an inflationary crisis, probably attributing price hikes to supply shock. While supply shock played a role obviously, it doesn't attribute to 6.2% inflation in October all by itself.

I agree about the short term, it looks worse than it is. Long term is looking overly due for an ultra correction.

Based on your past responses in this very thread. They are very over exaggerated and are something that should probably be addressed in its own forum post.

But i will say that its hardly a "crisis" when you have the entire consumer class still buying goods at the same levels (or attempting too) as "pre crisis". They would actually most likely be buying at a much higher pace if there weren't inventory/supply issues. The inflation numbers are also exaggerated since you are looking at YoY results from a depressed covid market. It's a growing problem but hardly a crisis when you have corresponding wage growth where it is.


As far as the sources for inflation sure its supply at the top, secondary though is profit motive where prices are being increased well above cost just because of the political smoke screen they are afforded right now. Why give them blame when you can just yell "ok brandon"?
Double the price of oil and then ignore its impact on inflation? Way higher on the list than the FEDS actions.
Maybe I would put them on the list somewhere around 4th or 5th.

[Belize]

You are gonna get destroyed beyond belief. Crypto is still a small asset class with huge room for growth, that's why you are in profit. It doesn't take a genius to make money in this market. However, some rules do apply. Never loan money, never leverage trade. If you wanna trade, trade across crypto, and even then do so with a lot of though behind it. You mentioned scalping, that is a decent strategy 70% of the time when nothing is happening and volatility is low.

Congratulations to responding to an obvious bot.

[hellhamster]

Market structure has been established. We are gonna re-visit a very small Wyckoff accumulation phase that will last probably a month and 2 weeks give or take, then crypto will start testing higher prices. It all depends how fast bitcoin can reclaim 53k, then 60k. There will be pullbacks along the way, and it is very probable bitcoin will revisit 45k very soon as a double-test. If 45k is lost, which I doubt (but I also doubted bitcoin losing 51k-53k) then it's a freefall to the previous low, 41k, and if that doesn't hold, 30k. The good news is that this latest dump lengthened the bull cycle. Now bitcoin has to prevent a dead cat bounce, which is a decent danger right now.

The same exact summer fractal is repeating right now, but on a smaller timescale. A Wyckoff pattern defines market manipulation by the big boys and smart money. We had a distribution phase from November until now, now we're in an accumulation range of an equal duration. Once leverage goes up again, then we will begin to see short squeezes. Right now, not much is happening.

Markets are relatively waiting it out right now, and not just crypto. This glacial pace will last around 5-6 more months more or less, waiting on the FED to take a formal position on tapering. Until then, crypto will very slowly but surely start regaining and expanding its market cap. If the FED announces a rate hike to strengthen the dollar, then we will likely see a bear market and a slow bleed back to the 30-50k range. If the FED says everything is fine and inflation is in check, they will keep printing their trillions, then crypto and the rest of the markets will start exploding. I think the latter is much more likely, seeing as the latest reaction of the markets has been pretty meh, which means they can keep on printing.

Tldr: boredom for 30 to 45 days, then a turtle-like slow pump until May probably.

- - - Updated - - -

Congratulations to responding to an obvious bot.

That was my first reaction, but it felt way too specific for a bot.

[hellhamster]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/u...er-2021-12-10/

CPI now officially at 6.8%... Hmmm who told ya over half a year ago and people here made fun of him or called him a doomsayer?

Shit is bad yo. Stagflation is imminent, an early but small rate hike is almost guaranteed at this point.

This is step one of the markets and bitcoin getting fucked. Now is the time for bitcoin to show whether it really is a hedge against inflation and can run against gold.

[Zan15]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/u...er-2021-12-10/

CPI now officially at 6.8%... Hmmm who told ya over half a year ago and people here made fun of him or called him a doomsayer?

Shit is bad yo. Stagflation is imminent, an early but small rate hike is almost guaranteed at this point.

This is step one of the markets and bitcoin getting fucked. Now is the time for bitcoin to show whether it really is a hedge against inflation and can run against gold.

are you talking about this prediction?

Today is a huge day for the global economy. FED chairman Powell will announce whether they will raise interest rates or not. 2 scenarios.

Scenario 1: he raises rates (20% probability, probably the best action for the long term but extremely bad for the short/mid term)

Markets crash worldwide for days on end, going back to 2008 levels. Prolonged bear market. Multiple countries enter massive debt crisis a la Greece. Massive deflation, strengthening the dollar, causing huge unemployment and government spending will be cut to insane levels. International debt will be wiped and 10 years of heavy austerity will follow. As a Greek, you really don't want this. The great reset no-one but the very few are prepared for.

Scenario 2: he doesn't raise rates (80% probability, probably the best action for the short and mid term but the long term is looking extremely grim).

Everything just keeps going as it was and the head continues to be in the sand. This is a gradual change that will take years to manifest into actual hyperinflation. Savings will be worthless, bonds will be worthless, money in general will be worthless compared to assets. Debt will soar. Wages get obliterated compared to spending power. Government and big corporations become responsible for almost all the economic activity. No one will want to work. Supply chains face a huge crisis. Government is forced to continue the endless chain reaction of a massive zombie economy, pumping everything up with quantitative easing and money printers going BRRRRRR. Acceleration towards hyperinflation. The Fed's stance on the matter is Covid-19 is the cause, when that blows away, everything can go back to normal, but I remain skeptical for two reasons: 1. Covid-19 will never really go away but we can choose to ignore it. 2. Even if it does go away, who said that the damage hasn't been done after over 2 years of increasing money supply by the planet load? Will the FED keep pumping shit up forever? Fiscal crises worldwide and civil unrest will go rampant. The lesser of two evils for now, but I really don't want to think how the world will look like in 10 years time.

Yah, still going to say you are a massive doomsayer who still hasn't got anything right as it relates to your post.

[hellhamster]

are you talking about this prediction?



Yah, still going to say you are a massive doomsayer who still hasn't got anything right as it relates to your post.

Having the highest consumer price index in 40 years proves I'm right, what are YOU talking about? Inflation doesn't happen overnight, it will take months or years for money velocity to catch up, especially if lockdowns are lifted and people just actually start spending money to pump it up. But the damage has been done. Something that's even more worrying, the US are getting those metrics in an economy with people basically locked up compared to a couple years ago, and they STILL look pretty bad.

Mind you, it could have been worse, like imagine having a double digit CPI increase... But 6.8% this year so far in November?

Maybe get your head out of the sand? This is happening.

And no, I'm really not a doomsayer, I've lived all my life in a country where I thought nothing could go wrong, until we got fucked SO hard out of nowhere that it changed all our lives for much worse. I became much more vigilant after that, because it turned my whole life around. Don't think for a second this cannot apply to you. What we will see is stagnating wages with consumer prices massively exploding all around us that we can't keep up anymore.

[Zan15]

Having the highest consumer price index in 40 years proves I'm right, what are YOU talking about? Inflation doesn't happen overnight, it will take months or years for money velocity to catch up, especially if lockdowns are lifted and people just actually start spending money to pump it up.

Lockdowns are all but lifted, not sure where you see lockdowns anymore?
Money velocity as you call it is already here and now without the federal trillions in stimlus in direct payments to consumers its already slowing down from the 6-7% gdp growth quarters to 2-4%.

Year and a half of depressed spending all crammed into a few quarters this year with massive supply disruption, yah you are going to have inflation.

Something that's even more worrying, the US are getting those metrics in an economy with people basically locked up compared to a couple years ago, and they STILL look pretty bad.
.

Again who's locked up anymore? Minority of people not going out the way they used too?
BTW a lot of spending just migrates from where it "would have" been spent to other sources when habbits changes such as the decrease in people going out to eat. for example i don't do movie night anymore. Instead i got a huge TV and SS system and now spend substancially more on streaming services than before COVID.

Mind you, it could have been worse, like imagine having a double digit CPI increase... But 6.8% this year so far in November?

.

6.8% is the rolling year, not "so far"

also i am not worried the majority of inflation is in volatile area's such as energy, housing/rent and food. I am also not worried because another huge source of inflation is wage growth, especially at the low end of employment. +4% and climbing fast. Offsets a lot of that inflation especially when the huge COLA hits for SS its going to top 5%+

https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker

Maybe get your head out of the sand? This is happening.

And no, I'm really not a doomsayer, I've lived all my life in a country where I thought nothing could go wrong, until we got fucked SO hard out of nowhere that it changed all our lives for much worse. I became much more vigilant after that, because it turned my whole life around. Don't think for a second this cannot apply to you. What we will see is stagnating wages with consumer prices massively exploding all around us that we can't keep up anymore.

Nah, most of what you said is "hysterics".

Seen the 1970's, lived through them. Seen the crisis in the 80's, the tech crash of the 90-00, housing crisis after housing crisis to the big one in 2008-2009.
Its been way worse than it is now and its not going to get anywhere near what you are claming.
Everyone of these past examples were going to drive us back into the 1920's depression era again....but all that hysterics and we never ended up there again.

[hellhamster]

Lockdowns are all but lifted, not sure where you see lockdowns anymore?
Money velocity as you call it is already here and now without the federal trillions in stimlus in direct payments to consumers its already slowing down from the 6-7% gdp growth quarters to 2-4%.

Year and a half of depressed spending all crammed into a few quarters this year with massive supply disruption, yah you are going to have inflation.




Again who's locked up anymore? Minority of people not going out the way they used too?
BTW a lot of spending just migrates from where it "would have" been spent to other sources when habbits changes such as the decrease in people going out to eat. for example i don't do movie night anymore. Instead i got a huge TV and SS system and now spend substancially more on streaming services than before COVID.




6.8% is the rolling year, not "so far"

also i am not worried the majority of inflation is in volatile area's such as energy, housing/rent and food. I am also not worried because another huge source of inflation is wage growth, especially at the low end of employment. +4% and climbing fast. Offsets a lot of that inflation especially when the huge COLA hits for SS its going to top 5%+

https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker




Nah, most of what you said is "hysterics".

Seen the 1970's, lived through them. Seen the crisis in the 80's, the tech crash of the 90-00, housing crisis after housing crisis to the big one in 2008-2009.
Its been way worse than it is now and its not going to get anywhere near what you are claming.
Everyone of these past examples were going to drive us back into the 1920's depression era again....but all that hysterics and we never ended up there again.

So you seriously believe that we spend as much as a few years ago? That we go out to bars, restaurants, cinemas and cafe's etc in the same frequency as a few years ago? I don't quite believe you understand what is going on here. Yes, we spend more on online services, but that's a small amount compared to what we used to. Unless you spend hundreds of dollars a month on streaming services alone.

I don't think I can trust any wage growth statistics, and even a 4% bump can't offset the alleged 6.8% CPI.

I don't think it will be as worse as the 1920's, but the following 5 years will give the 80's a run for their money. Again, this won't happen suddenly, it will hit gradually.

And just for fun, record the price of your favorite shampoo when you buy it in January, and re-record it next year.

[Zan15]

So you seriously believe that we spend as much as a few years ago? That we go out to bars, restaurants, cinemas and cafe's etc in the same frequency as a few years ago? I don't quite believe you understand what is going on here. Yes, we spend more on online services, but that's a small amount compared to what we used to. Unless you spend hundreds of dollars a month on streaming services alone.

Yes, I can see it in consumer spending reports, GDP, etc etc. It has of course shifted to no one Suprise.
What isn't being spent on bars and restaurants is now being spent on delivery. Just look at the massive revenue increases in delivery services.
Massive revenue shift from brick-and-mortar stores just accelerated during the pandemic.

I don't think I can trust any wage growth statistics, and even a 4% bump can't offset the alleged 6.8% CPI.

So, you can't trust the wage growth numbers, but you can trust the inflation growth numbers. My god the very definition of cherry picking which ones you want to believe?

It can't offset but it sure makes a 7% rate more manageable rate of 3%.

I don't think it will be as worse as the 1920's, but the following 5 years will give the 80's a run for their money. Again, this won't happen suddenly, it will hit gradually.

And just for fun, record the price of your favorite shampoo when you buy it in January, and re-record it next year.

While I am recording that shampoo price, I will also be recording the profit margin on said shampoo? Want to bet that profit margin has a steeper increase??

Have you looked at companies Q reports recently? You've seen those margins spike? they are even several % higher than pre-pandemic rates.


https://news.yahoo.com/corporate-pro...093051481.html

Maybe keep an eye on Meat and shampoo?
https://news.yahoo.com/meat-packers-...212017783.html

[gondrin]

So you seriously believe that we spend as much as a few years ago? That we go out to bars, restaurants, cinemas and cafe's etc in the same frequency as a few years ago? I don't quite believe you understand what is going on here. Yes, we spend more on online services, but that's a small amount compared to what we used to. Unless you spend hundreds of dollars a month on streaming services alone.

I don't think I can trust any wage growth statistics, and even a 4% bump can't offset the alleged 6.8% CPI.

I don't think it will be as worse as the 1920's, but the following 5 years will give the 80's a run for their money. Again, this won't happen suddenly, it will hit gradually.

And just for fun, record the price of your favorite shampoo when you buy it in January, and re-record it next year.

Thing is, is the price of shampoo going up only enough to cover the cost to make it goes up(which would justify the inflation) or are they increasing it beyond that(artificial inflation), not due to demand but because they are able to due to the "perception" of high inflation?

First part is normal inflation and is expected. Second part is not and is simple price gouging.

[Zan15]

Thing is, is the price of shampoo going up only enough to cover the cost to make it goes up(which would justify the inflation) or are they increasing it beyond that(artificial inflation), not due to demand but because they are able to due to the "perception" of high inflation?

First part is normal inflation and is expected. Second part is not and is simple price gouging.

While the world fights over blaming Biden for things that mostly happened due to the pandemic and started out in the term before his..... companies have pricing power and are able to raise prices above and beyond inflation cost.

This is a sign of underlying strength of the consumer and consumer spending. Sure, they don't like it, but they seem to be able to financially handle it so far.

Hell, you can easily see this in just oil-gas prices. It's much easier to ramp production down then it is to ramp it back up, especially when you can charge substantially more for slow ramping. The collapse of oil production was also partly pre-pandemic because of shales collapse cause of depressed oil price and debt problems. But you have an entire party blaming Biden and a Pipeline that was not even going to be in operation till 2023-2024 for oil that's already being delivered into the production cycle by other means.


Not to mention you had an entire year of depressed pricing because of the collapse in demand. Now you are measuring from that point to today. Gee i wonder why we have 7% inflation /facepalm. Skip of year and a half and see what happens when spending catches up for missed time, at the exact time that the delayed supply chain problems hit the market.

On top of "gouging" on the price, i am starting to think the supply side is also manipulating their actions to increase their profits.

[gondrin]

While the world fights over blaming Biden for things that mostly happened due to the pandemic and started out in the term before his..... companies have pricing power and are able to raise prices above and beyond inflation cost.

This is a sign of underlying strength of the consumer and consumer spending. Sure, they don't like it, but they seem to be able to financially handle it so far.

Hell, you can easily see this in just oil-gas prices. It's much easier to ramp production down then it is to ramp it back up, especially when you can charge substantially more for slow ramping. The collapse of oil production was also partly pre-pandemic because of shales collapse cause of depressed oil price and debt problems. But you have an entire party blaming Biden and a Pipeline that was not even going to be in operation till 2023-2024 for oil that's already being delivered into the production cycle by other means.


Not to mention you had an entire year of depressed pricing because of the collapse in demand. Now you are measuring from that point to today. Gee i wonder why we have 7% inflation /facepalm. Skip of year and a half and see what happens when spending catches up for missed time, at the exact time that the delayed supply chain problems hit the market.

On top of "gouging" on the price, i am starting to think the supply side is also manipulating their actions to increase their profits.

Supply side has always done that. I work in grocery retail and I see the prices from wholesale to end. Basically, and this is for everyone, there is generally a 70 - 90% markup on ANY good that is shipped somewhere in the US. Raw goods producers usually sell their stuff at around 20% above gross margin to account for labor and the like. When going to a manufacturer to turn said goods into a product, it gets boosted another 20%(for stuff that gets sold in a store) to upwards of 150%(restaurants and the like). If it goes to a middleman distributer, there is another 10 - 15% increase due to their costs. At the retail side, it is another 10 - 50% increase depending on the product and promotion, and in Walmarts case, size of business.

How do I know all of this? I work in grocery retail along with having worked in both pizza making and factory work. I've seen what it costs to make the goods along with what it takes to procure them to sell.

When someone buys something in a store, there is usually a good 4 - 5 steps that have their own markups ranging 10 - 30% each step.

That box of cereal that costs $5.00 in the store? It cost the company to make it around $1.10 in raw goods plus 5 - 15 cents in labor and other costs.

Here is a fun fact for everyone. The box or bag a product comes in(if it has ANY print on it other a simple name) costs more then the actual product that goes into it. This only applies to mass produced product and NOT on made to order or things like a meat butcher.

Sorry for the OT post.

[Zan15]

Supply side has always done that. I work in grocery retail and I see the prices from wholesale to end. Basically, and this is for everyone, there is generally a 70 - 90% markup on ANY good that is shipped somewhere in the US. Raw goods producers usually sell their stuff at around 20% above gross margin to account for labor and the like. When going to a manufacturer to turn said goods into a product, it gets boosted another 20%(for stuff that gets sold in a store) to upwards of 150%(restaurants and the like). If it goes to a middleman distributer, there is another 10 - 15% increase due to their costs. At the retail side, it is another 10 - 50% increase depending on the product and promotion, and in Walmarts case, size of business.

How do I know all of this? I work in grocery retail along with having worked in both pizza making and factory work. I've seen what it costs to make the goods along with what it takes to procure them to sell.

When someone buys something in a store, there is usually a good 4 - 5 steps that have their own markups ranging 10 - 30% each step.

That box of cereal that costs $5.00 in the store? It cost the company to make it around $1.10 in raw goods plus 5 - 15 cents in labor and other costs.

Here is a fun fact for everyone. The box or bag a product comes in(if it has ANY print on it other a simple name) costs more then the actual product that goes into it. This only applies to mass produced product and NOT on made to order or things like a meat butcher.

Sorry for the OT post.

Yah but the mark up is usallly a steady rate outside of some massive disruption which we have now.

the fact is they are marking it up to adjust for that disruption then throwing even more on top of the normal mark up to beef up the profit margin because they have pricing power right now. That and they are rolling the dice that everyone will keep blaiming Biden and not them for the extra mark up and huge profits.

For a horrible economy companies seem to have no problem finding almost 300 billion for stock buy backs, hitting new records.

[BlackDruid96]

I don't like crypto currency because it's unregulated, this is why ransomware people use it. I am afraid it will lead to a downfall of an economy if too many people start using it, just like the stock market.

[Mihalik]

For a horrible economy companies seem to have no problem finding almost 300 billion for stock buy backs, hitting new records.

Who would have thought that allowing people to hoard their wealth in untaxable assets that can be used to get near zero interest loans would incentivize such behavior?

/s

[hellhamster]

Step 2 of 5 of the Wyckoff accumulation schematic is almost underway. It is retesting the lowest ranges for the weekend. If it succeeds, it will swing high, fail again, then drop down to the lowest point since 42k during step 4. This will be the toughest period for bitcoin and crypto in general, the last time it was this rough was when it tested the 21 weekly and closed above just barely in September.

It needs to stay above 45.5-46k for the Sunday close, CME futures opening on Monday will be long if that happens. If it closes below that, prepare for a quick drop to 42k, just as quick as when it lost the 51k. If it loses 42k, there is a small support at 39k, then it's chaos all the way down to 30k. I'll definitely shift to macro bearish when that happens. I am still macro bull.

We are in a manufactured downtrend made possible by whales with very clear levels of support and resistance. They obviously de-risked during the FED nonsense, and are now accumulating. Buying a few thousand bitcoin here, a few thousand there, scalp trading enough to not overshoot resistance, rinse and repeat. Usually these play out for as long as the manufactured uptrend to 69k worked, which was about a month, which is why I said earlier that a reversal is coming mid January. The support levels are the 50 weekly moving average where we are currently, and the resistance levels are the 10 day moving average (48k) and 21 day moving average (51k). The longer we are in a downtrend the easier the resolution, as resistance moves lower and lower with time. Hence why I gave it a month.

Factors to consider are the S&P open, and the DXY. As long as the S&P is positive and the DXY is negative, crypto is still looking good. However, that all depends if there is volume coming in at support in the weekend. It's not looking that healthy, if this weren't heavily manipulated, this would 100% be looking at a move down, but I really do believe in the Wyckoff pattern as long as the news that's coming out isn't overly bearish.

I am afraid however that it's looking a bit obvious now. The summer Wyckoff was predicted by very few people including myself, more people have become aware now this exists.

[Zan15]

Step 2 of 5 of the Wyckoff accumulation schematic is almost underway. It is retesting the lowest ranges for the weekend. If it succeeds, it will swing high, fail again, then drop down to the lowest point since 42k during step 4. This will be the toughest period for bitcoin and crypto in general, the last time it was this rough was when it tested the 21 weekly and closed above just barely in September.

It needs to stay above 45.5-46k for the Sunday close, CME futures opening on Monday will be long if that happens. If it closes below that, prepare for a quick drop to 42k, just as quick as when it lost the 51k. If it loses 42k, there is a small support at 39k, then it's chaos all the way down to 30k. I'll definitely shift to macro bearish when that happens. I am still macro bull.

We are in a manufactured downtrend made possible by whales with very clear levels of support and resistance. They obviously de-risked during the FED nonsense, and are now accumulating. Buying a few thousand bitcoin here, a few thousand there, scalp trading enough to not overshoot resistance, rinse and repeat. Usually these play out for as long as the manufactured uptrend to 69k worked, which was about a month, which is why I said earlier that a reversal is coming mid January. The support levels are the 50 weekly moving average where we are currently, and the resistance levels are the 10 day moving average (48k) and 21 day moving average (51k). The longer we are in a downtrend the easier the resolution, as resistance moves lower and lower with time. Hence why I gave it a month.

Factors to consider are the S&P open, and the DXY. As long as the S&P is positive and the DXY is negative, crypto is still looking good. However, that all depends if there is volume coming in at support in the weekend. It's not looking that healthy, if this weren't heavily manipulated, this would 100% be looking at a move down, but I really do believe in the Wyckoff pattern as long as the news that's coming out isn't overly bearish.

I am afraid however that it's looking a bit obvious now. The summer Wyckoff was predicted by very few people including myself, more people have become aware now this exists.

Sorry but does "summer Wyckoff" mean 6 figure bitcoin?

BTC will go to 44k-48k, crab for a few weeks as alts are mooning, then continue pumping to 6 digits in the summer.
.

BTW i don't think you mean you are buying a few thousand bitcoin, that would be 40-80 MILLION dollars....here and there....

[hellhamster]

Sorry but does "summer Wyckoff" mean 6 figure bitcoin?


BTW i don't think you mean you are buying a few thousand bitcoin, that would be 40-80 MILLION dollars....here and there....

6 figure bitcoin is still not off the table, these accumulations are actually good for the long term because of shakeouts.

Yes, that is the implication, you can check the top wallets how volume is moved. A few dozen million dollars every time.

[Zan15]

6 figure bitcoin is still not off the table, these accumulations are actually good for the long term because of shakeouts.

Yes, that is the implication, you can check the top wallets how volume is moved. A few dozen million dollars every time.

Sorry i thought you were implying the moves you were going to make and meant a few thousand dollars in bit coin vs a few thousand bit coins by the whales.

my bad


Besides my bet is on

https://rally.io/creator/BEET/
https://www.howardstern.com/show/202...in-five-years/