Global warming may have already passed irreversible tipping point

[Nymrohd]

Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests

So a lot of people will probably live to see the consequences of this.

From what I've read, that study is a bit on the doomsday side. Not that it won't happen eventually but 2025 is crazy early.

[Endus]

From what I've read, that study is a bit on the doomsday side. Not that it won't happen eventually but 2025 is crazy early.

Here's the thing; climate science has been incredibly conservative. The models for future warming are presented at the 95% confidence level; climate scientists don't usually talk about the entire range of possible warming, just the 95% confidence that warming will be at least this much by X date, if trends continue (or whatever the specifics of the model are; many presume some reduction in GHG emissions over time).

If warming is 95% likely to be at least, say, +2 degrees by 2050, that means there's a 94.9% chance it will warm more quickly than that, that we'll hit that +2 degrees point earlier. It's not even the average of the trend, it's way down at the lowest reasonable end of the range. And that's why actual observations have tended to exceed those forecasts

With things like the Gulf Stream, they're trying to predict a change that's literally never been observed. It's hugely uncertain, and we aren't going to be able to confirm it until it actually does collapse. But "as early as" is just doing the reverse of what's usually done; taking the higher point on the range. It's not unreasonable to point that out, and it's frankly one of the bigger failures of climate change communication that they've so consistently focused on the most-conservative possibilities rather than even just considering the middle ground average. It's played down the actual risks considerably.

[PosPosPos]

Here's the thing; climate science has been incredibly conservative. The models for future warming are presented at the 95% confidence level; climate scientists don't usually talk about the entire range of possible warming, just the 95% confidence that warming will be at least this much by X date, if trends continue (or whatever the specifics of the model are; many presume some reduction in GHG emissions over time).

If warming is 95% likely to be at least, say, +2 degrees by 2050, that means there's a 94.9% chance it will warm more quickly than that, that we'll hit that +2 degrees point earlier. It's not even the average of the trend, it's way down at the lowest reasonable end of the range. And that's why actual observations have tended to exceed those forecasts

With things like the Gulf Stream, they're trying to predict a change that's literally never been observed. It's hugely uncertain, and we aren't going to be able to confirm it until it actually does collapse. But "as early as" is just doing the reverse of what's usually done; taking the higher point on the range. It's not unreasonable to point that out, and it's frankly one of the bigger failures of climate change communication that they've so consistently focused on the most-conservative possibilities rather than even just considering the middle ground average. It's played down the actual risks considerably.

If showing that the situation is absolutely terrible even in the best case scenarios doesn't convince enough people to be worried, then nothing else will tbh.

[diller]

Nobody "stopped using the term".

I didn't mean the term is never used anymore, I mean in the mainstream it has almost 100% been replaced with 'climate change'.

[Rasulis]

NPR has an in depth article on the AMOC research.

Why it's so important to figure out when a vital Atlantic Ocean current might collapse

To determine how close that tipping point might be, Ditlevsen analyzed ocean temperature records near Greenland over the past 150 years and ran a statistical analysis to track the fluctuations in temperature. He and his co-author found increasing variability in temperatures, which they say is a sign the AMOC is weakening. Based on their analysis, they estimate the AMOC could collapse between 2025 and 2095. That's decades earlier than other studies have found.

The 2025 date is likely on the extreme end of their statistical analysis bell curve. Something on the order of 1 in a billion or so. We should also note that the study only looked at a limited set of data from a small part of a massive system.

Foukal says this most recent study relies on temperature records from a small part of the system and doesn't simulate what would happen to the entire current itself. He says it's also crucial to understand the cause of a collapse to estimate the timing — something Ditlevsen's study didn't address.

Not to say that even small shifts in the system won't create some major climate implications. The weakening of AMOC actually plays a major role in the current climate disasters. We have a strengthening of the southern portion of AMOC pumping massive amount of warm water from Africa to the southern tip of Florida. Then we have a weakening on the northern portion of AMOC which is partially responsible for the heat wave in Southern Europe. The Northern Atlantic colder water ended up blocking the warmer water around South Florida from moving north. So, the warm water kept accumulating around Southern Florida. Add the heat dome, and you have a recipe for a major disaster.

[Rasulis]

Texans are staying inside during record heat — and the state's economy could take a $9.5 billion hit from reduced business

Texas is set to have one of its hottest summers ever. Workers at small and midsize businesses in Texas' tourism, entertainment, and recreation sectors — all dependent on the outdoors — worked 20% fewer hours between mid-June and mid-July this year than they did in the same month between 2019 and 2022, reported Gusto economist Luke Pardue.

Pardue told Insider he was surprised at the magnitude of the decline in hours worked as a result of extreme heat.

"The reduction in economic activity that we're seeing right now is second only to what we've seen during the pandemic in terms of its effect on small business activity," he said.

And this comes after many businesses shifted to offer more outdoor options during the pandemic.

"The summer was supposed to be this great time when everything could be outdoors and then it could kind of be a boon to businesses that are normally indoors," Pardue said. "And then we're seeing, long term, this opposite shift, where during the summer, there's all this extreme heat."

If the heat continues as predicted through the end of next month, Texas' gross state product will take a $9.5 billion hit — equivalent to a 0.47% lower growth rate — economist Ray Perryman told The Wall Street Journal.

Jonathan Horowitz, chief revenue and strategy officer at Buffalo Bayou Brewing in Houston, told the Journal that his taproom's revenue is down about 10% over the same time period last year.

Extended extreme heat is having all kinds of other adverse economic impacts in the state, including on farmers whose animals and crops are being threatened by the temperatures and lack of water.

Nationwide, Americans are also paying more to stay cool. According to the The National Energy Assistance Directors Association, home energy bills are estimated to increase by 11.7% this summer to $578, compared to $517 last summer.

Research suggests workers experiencing heat stress are at higher risk of suffering accidents, which could rack up medical bills and make it more difficult for businesses to maintain a full workforce.

Andreas Flouris, a professor at the University of Thessaly in Greece, told The New York Times that investments to protect workers, such as rearranging shifts or changing uniform colors, pay off since workers can be more productive in the longer run.

Arizona residents, who are facing nearly a month straight of temperatures exceeding 110 degrees, are paying significantly higher electricity bills. It's estimated that an extended power failure from the heat would send nearly 800,000 Phoenix residents to the emergency room. And according to the Nature Conservancy, as of 2021, extreme heat costs Phoenix $7.3 million in hospitalizations and emergency room visits annually, which may rise this year.

Arizona has also seen a 10% drop in workers' weekly hours in the tourism, arts and entertainment, and sports and recreation industries this summer compared to the last four summers, Pardue found.

In New Orleans, many of the city's residents are staying indoors for most of the day to avoid the dangerous heat, which has already reportedly killed residents. A report from March by the Louisiana Department of Health found that each year on average, 320 workers end up in the emergency room for heat-related illnesses. With temperatures well over 100 degrees, this number may increase this summer.

[Nymrohd]

Texans are staying inside during record heat — and the state's economy could take a $9.5 billion hit from reduced business

It's a simple reality that business and work practices need to adapt to the heat. Maybe shifts will split and start earlier in the morning with the second shift starting late in the evening and towards the night. Shops that stayed open through the day may close for midday and then stay open until 23:00 or even later. The only alternative is moving everything to indoor areas that are air conditioned and I am not sure how viable that is.

- - - Updated - - -

If showing that the situation is absolutely terrible even in the best case scenarios doesn't convince enough people to be worried, then nothing else will tbh.

I went out to lunch with my 69 year old father (a man with an MSc in engineering) and he actually said that "no one could have predicted climate change would get this bad". I reminded him that the Kyoto Protocol was signed over 25 years ago.
HUmanity's capacity for ignorance knows no bounds.

[PosPosPos]

I reminded him that the Kyoto Protocol was signed over 25 years ago.

Let me guess, he just glossed over it and changed the subject; because that's exactly what my father does, and then he conveniently forgets about it after a week and goes back on his usual inane rants.

[Edge-]

Let me guess, he just glossed over it and changed the subject; because that's exactly what my father does, and then he conveniently forgets about it after a week and goes back on his usual inane rants.

Hey, this is what my very conservative grandfather used to do! We probably had the same discussion on unions about 100 times. He hated 'em, they were the worst and those entitled union assholes just strike all the time and don't want to work.

He was a union member from his days working for the US government and enjoyed a pension. His son (my father) was a union member in his industry for basically his whole time in that career. I was a direct beneficiary of his union membership through the absolutely incredible health coverage that covered everything.

I had to remind him of the extensive benefits to himself and his family, in addition to the long history of general benefits unions helped win including overtime, weekends, vacation time etc. etc. that he all directly benefitted from too.

He'd eventually give in, I assume because I'd wear him down and he'd get tired (he was an old guy, I was still a young college student brimming with energy), and we'd probably have the conversation again in a few weeks/month.

I don't recall if, or how much, we got into climate talks, though. I'm unsure that he would have been receptive, what with Fox News being the primary channel on in the house (when Antiques Roadshow or Cops wasn't on).

[Rasulis]

It's a simple reality that business and work practices need to adapt to the heat. Maybe shifts will split and start earlier in the morning with the second shift starting late in the evening and towards the night. Shops that stayed open through the day may close for midday and then stay open until 23:00 or even later. The only alternative is moving everything to indoor areas that are air conditioned and I am not sure how viable that is.

The biggest problems are the people who either can't afford A.C. or the cost of the electricity to run those A.C.

[Nymrohd]

The biggest problems are the people who either can't afford A.C. or the cost of the electricity to run those A.C.

We are talking about places of business or public service though. If you cannot afford AC you cannot afford to stay in business

[Rasulis]

We are talking about places of business or public service though. If you cannot afford AC you cannot afford to stay in business

Although briefly, the article also touches on residential electrical bills.

Nationwide, Americans are also paying more to stay cool. According to the The National Energy Assistance Directors Association, home energy bills are estimated to increase by 11.7% this summer to $578, compared to $517 last summer.

This is from 2022.

More Americans Than Ever Can’t Afford to Pay Their Electric Bill

As in one in six households. Some states will allow utilities to disconnect your electricity in the midst of a heat wave for account delinquency.

America's power disconnection crisis: In 31 states, utilities can shut off electricity for nonpayment in a heat wave

[Nymrohd]

Although briefly, the article also touches on residential electrical bills.



This is from 2022.

More Americans Than Ever Can’t Afford to Pay Their Electric Bill

As in one in six households. Some states will allow utilities to disconnect your electricity in the midst of a heat wave for account delinquency.

America's power disconnection crisis: In 31 states, utilities can shut off electricity for nonpayment in a heat wave

We went with solar shingles just over a year ago and it went great for us; heat pump for heating and cooling, two hybrid vehicles and almost all our energy needs are covered by the Sun (except for gas for the stove).

But yes, there is a dangerous loop in how cooling inflates energy bills (and it's not just indoor areas; cooling your car doesn't come free) which increases energy expenditure which causes more greenhouse emissions.

[PosPosPos]

Hey, this is what my very conservative grandfather used to do! We probably had the same discussion on unions about 100 times. He hated 'em, they were the worst and those entitled union assholes just strike all the time and don't want to work.

He was a union member from his days working for the US government and enjoyed a pension. His son (my father) was a union member in his industry for basically his whole time in that career. I was a direct beneficiary of his union membership through the absolutely incredible health coverage that covered everything.

I had to remind him of the extensive benefits to himself and his family, in addition to the long history of general benefits unions helped win including overtime, weekends, vacation time etc. etc. that he all directly benefitted from too.

He'd eventually give in, I assume because I'd wear him down and he'd get tired (he was an old guy, I was still a young college student brimming with energy), and we'd probably have the conversation again in a few weeks/month.

I don't recall if, or how much, we got into climate talks, though. I'm unsure that he would have been receptive, what with Fox News being the primary channel on in the house (when Antiques Roadshow or Cops wasn't on).

It's just a lot of that "got mine, fuck you" energy that compels conservatives to pull up the ladder after them.

It's also hopefully a grim reminder for us future generations to look to our parent and grandparent generations as the textbook negative role model to never, ever be like them.

[Rasulis]

We went with solar shingles just over a year ago and it went great for us; heat pump for heating and cooling, two hybrid vehicles and almost all our energy needs are covered by the Sun (except for gas for the stove).

But yes, there is a dangerous loop in how cooling inflates energy bills (and it's not just indoor areas; cooling your car doesn't come free) which increases energy expenditure which causes more greenhouse emissions.

Solar panels + battery are great solutions when you can afford it. We did that for our home in San Diego. Also, the home in San Francisco. Electrified the entire home. We even replaced the fireplaces with electric inserts. They are surprisingly realistic now. Complete with smoke courtesy of water vapor.

[Nymrohd]

Solar panels + battery are great solutions when you can afford it. We did that for our home in San Diego. Also, the home in San Francisco. Electrified the entire home. We even replaced the fireplaces with electric inserts. They are surprisingly realistic now. Complete with smoke courtesy of water vapor.

Nah kept the fireplace. Mostly because I love to cook sausage on the open fire during the winter.

But yeah in some places, substantial subsidies for solar panels are a very effective green solution.

[Sunseeker]

Agreed, our older generations should be used as a cautionary tale, not as an instruction manual.

As with all things, it can be both. We should build upon their successes and learn from their failures.

My old boss always said "It's okay to make mistakes, just don't make the same mistakes."

[Sunseeker]

I'm from the South. Generations before me should definitely be a cautionary tale.

I'm not. In said last job 90% of my headaches in doing my job came from "the South". The other 10% came from entitled twats(of all ages) elsewhere in the country.

Sarcasm aside, you are correct. It's easy to forget some of the good things previous generations did, considering the metric fuckton of bad shit they did.

I think part of the problem is that "previous generations" are still in charge. I mean Mitch was born in what, 1942? I'm not saying he did bad things back in the day, I'm just saying he was part of the culture of the time. A culture that he and people his age have drug with them like an anchor some 80 years later. We are constantly reminded of their failures, because they don't see them as failures and they're rapidly turning their successes into failures because they've doubled down on the fact the fact that they can't see their other failures as failures.

An inability to recognize your failings is generally one of those warning signs that you shouldn't have a job with any level of real responsibility.

[Rasulis]

Nah kept the fireplace. Mostly because I love to cook sausage on the open fire during the winter.

But yeah in some places, substantial subsidies for solar panels are a very effective green solution.

I have mixed feelings about residential solar panels/battery/geothermal. They are wonderful solutions only for those who can afford them. Multiple rebates and subsidies for the panels, batteries, heat pumps, electric water heaters, the stovetops and ovens. From all levels – Federal, State, County, City and the utility company. Unfortunately, all these went to the people that needed them the least. There is even a 30% Federal Tax rebate for electric fireplace up to $2,000. Good till 2032.

The other dark side is that solar adopters have traditionally been wealthier, given the high up-front cost of installing a solar system, and in a way, the other less wealthy customers are unfairly subsidizing the ever-increasing grid maintenance costs for these solar customers.

[Shadowferal]

Prisoner describes guards fainting and 129 degree temps during brutal Texas heatwave

Roughly 70 out of the state’s 100 prisons don’t have widespread air conditioning – many lack any form of AC – according to an investigation from Texas Tribune. This leaves inmates to suffer through heat so severe it’s often fatal, according to incarcerated people and criminal justice advocates.

"I have lived without air conditioning in this cell for the past seven summers,” Kwaneta Harris, who is housed at the Lane Murray Unit prison in Gatesville, wrote in The Appeal on Friday. “I wasn’t even allowed to shade my window from the sun. On a hot day in July, cells regularly reached 110 degrees.”

Ms Harris said she’s witnessed guards fainting and seen temperatures measured at 129F inside of the facility.

Climate scientists warn that we are entering the “era of global boiling,” in which what were once record-breaking high temperatures will become commonplace, putting numerous people at risk.

Heatwaves are known as “silent killers” and kill more people than other forms of extreme weather driven by global heating.
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I thought torture was condemned.