Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Edge-]

Under Abe? definitely. And the SDF is said to be scary as fuck

Who says that?

[Saradain]

Well, this isn't a topic dedicated to discussing Japan due to their lack of involvement, so we can talk about it in PMs or just close it.

On topic for today's headline: Ukraine formally admits to losing Soledar to Russia in a crushing defeat

Ukraine has officially admitted to withdrawing troops from the eastern town of Soledar on Wednesday, after a months-long bloody battle. But Ukrainian army spokesman Sergui Tcherevaty did not specify when it took place.

"After months of difficult fighting... the Ukrainian armed forces left [Soledar]," he said.

"[To] retreat to prepared positions."

Recent weeks have seen vicious fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces in the salt mining town, which sits in the hotly-contested Donbas region.

Stop lying, again and again.

Crushing defeat my ass, your own source doesn't even use the words, only you always will, to shill for russians.

Tcherevaty said the retreat was "controlled" with "no encirclement or massive capture of our soldiers", and denied that soldiers had leaked information about its fate.

He claimed Ukrainian troops "inflicted incredible losses" on the Russians, and emphasised that Kyiv's strategy was to "wear out the enemy".

A long-ass fight over a town of what, 10k people? I guess the Abrams and Leopards have more russians to kill soon

[zealo]

This thread isn't really about east Asian geopolitics directly, but Japan having a constitution that explicitly outlaws wars of aggression shouldn't alone be used to make any judgments on what their military is capable of under that fig leaf of a legal fiction.

[Milchshake]

OMG i want to hug the person that did this.

[YUPPIE]

Even though people are confident Ukraine will regain it, Soledar was indeed a huge loss for Ukraine and it shouldn't be downplayed how much they lost there to go on the backfoot - not to mention their sheer reluctance to admit it even now quite a while after the fact. I'm not even shilling for Russia at all, but one of the things that people shouldn't be elusive over is when Ukraine loses time and now. And they do lose.

This war has been awful for Ukraine and is very difficult. It's not the one-sided Uganda vs Tanzania-like stomp people desperately try to make it out to be on media.

When they lose battles, we must know.

[jonnysensible]

Soledar was indeed a huge loss for Ukraine and it shouldn't be downplayed how much they lost there to go on the backfoot. I'm not even shilling for Russia at all, but one of the things that people shouldn't be elusive over is when Ukraine loses time and now. And they do lose.

This war has been awful for Ukraine and is very difficult. It's not the one-sided Uganda vs Tanzania-like stomp people desperately try to make it out to be on media

if ukraine loses Bakhmut and soledar they have literally lost 5km of land in what 3 months? In an area that isn't greatly important. The idea its a huge loss is insane.

Its also a controlled withdrawal not a rout. To the next defensive line. Nobody actually knows the state of the forces on the Russian or Ukranian side outside of their commanders.

[Elder Millennial]

OMG i want to hug the person that did this.

Complete tangent.

That looks like bran new ammo, in a Russian caliber, with English factory labeling. That's some of that ammo Romania/Bulgaria/Slovakia etc have been churning out for Ukraine.

[KrayZ33]

Nah. Germany would like nothing better than to keep the status quo and keep buying cheap gas, and Russia falling apart may lead to huge issues with the supply chains of Russian resources. Obviously they can't buy the resources with the war going on, but they may not be able to buy them ever again if Russia falls and turns into Africa 2.0. So the best case scenario for Germany (or at least it seems that's what they are thinking) is ending the war ASAP with a change in Russian leadership, but also letting them save some face.

For USA, it's because of China. China already has huge influence over Russia that will only grow as the West continues to isolate it, but actually breaking Russia's back means it will fall right into China's grasp. If Russia even survived, it would be a glorified vassal to China as opposed to being a player in its own rights (though we already know Russia isn't a first rate player, but it sees itself as such). If it doesn't survive, Siberia will basically be up for grabs and you can be certain China will be there first. They are already there, actually. So if Russia falls apart, you're counting on a small possibility that USA and EU can actually get the new states into their own sphere of influence rather than letting them fall to China.

So there's a lot to lose for the West if Ukraine wins. Obviously from moral standpoint Ukraine has to be supported as much as possible and Russia has to be punished hard, but that's not what politics is about. Just beating Russia isn't hard, either, we all knew it has 0 chance against NATO before the war. The issue is whether Russia can be beat without benefitting China too much, or if there's even a realistic scenario in which China isn't the biggest winner. Point being, at this point Russia isn't really a subject in the eyes of either USA or China, but it's one of the most important objects and possibly one that will decide the power struggle between them in the long run.

I find it weird to assume that Germany wouldn't be able to buy gas then?
Wouldn't it just get even cheaper and easier if Russia is falling apart? You could easily spread your influence then as well as a very important buyer in a weak goverment. It's not like warbands will be roaming around just because the russian federation falls apart.
On top of that, the infrastructure is already there as well.

[YUPPIE]

Nobody actually knows the state of the forces on the Russian or Ukranian side outside of their commanders.

Ukraine sure, but we have some definitive proof Russia has it down bad. There's so much different gore VODs of Russian soldiers being destroyed all over the internet that does lend credibility to the claim they're down 100k+ at least

[jonnysensible]

Ukraine sure, but we have some definitive proof Russia has it down bad. There's so much different gore VODs of Russian soldiers being destroyed all over the internet that does lend credibility to the claim they're down 100k+ at least

the lines arent moving much and the capacity for either side to capture or assault each other dont seem that high. Both sides are still largely reconstituting forces. Artillery fire rates are down heavily.

The tanks will allow Ukraine to commit to combined arms offensives. More artillery shells are good as well, both sides will start rationing soon.

Not alot is going on atm really, the west will keep propping up Ukraine and Russia is facing profound problems at home. (murders and criminals who have served 6 months with Wagner are coming home, crimes involving firearms are up like 600% lol, society is becoming feudal, sanctions are biting).

[YUPPIE]

Russia is facing profound problems at home. (murders and criminals who have served 6 months with Wagner are coming home, crimes involving firearms are up like 600% lol, society is becoming feudal, sanctions are biting).

do you have any proof Russia at home is in chaos? I always thought Moscow was still in its own little harmonious bubble, oblivious to the worse.

[Corvus]

Soledar is a bit of a trap for russia. They expended huge resources taking it and now find themselves with Ukraine on the high ground to the west of it shelling them mercilessly with no cover left to speak of.

[Airlick]

I find it weird to assume that Germany wouldn't be able to buy gas then?
Wouldn't it just get even cheaper and easier if Russia is falling apart? You could easily spread your influence then as well as a very important buyer in a weak goverment. It's not like warbands will be roaming around just because the russian federation falls apart.
On top of that, the infrastructure is already there as well.

I just said we don't know if cheap gas would be available if Russia broke apart, not that it definitely wouldn't. If Russia falls apart peacefully, basically like Soviet Union, and no shenanigans between the new countries themselves AND between them and Germany ensue, then sure, the gas would flow. But even in a peaceful scenario they may be conflicted and block the pipes, it's something Russia even did or threatened to do before the war, no reason to believe its successor states couldn't do the same to their neighbours and their partners. Plus we're talking about likely shithole countries led by a bunch of Kadyrovs, because that's what they would really be for at least decades, not developed democracies. You can reference Africa as to who's better at dealing with warlords and corrupt governments, China or the West.

And then you got the less peaceful scenario with Russia actually trying to keep its minority republics under its control, which would basically be Chechnya 3.0 for it, except happening in 20 places at the same time. The infrastructure wouldn't be likely to survive that.

So yeah, all in all, if we disregard morality and just want cheap gas, then having Russia survive intact is definitely the safest outcome. It's potentially not the very best outcome, but there are also far worse possibilities.

[Corvus]

Man, russia is crying so hard about the tanks. On one hand it is a massive escalation, and on the other hand they are no big deal and will easily be destroyed. Classic fascism.

russia's spokesdrunk is now saying that it is part of NATO's pre-planned war against russia. So NATO's plan was to make russia invade then spend 11 months trying not to send tanks before giving in and doing so in he face of russia's genocide?

[YUPPIE]

Man, russia is crying so hard about the tanks.

Yes, they are very pissed, but (interestingly) no one is afraid of Russia's responses.

[Breccia]

My only issue with the US/German agreement to deliver tanks is that it wasn't done sooner. Simply put, moving tanks and training crew takes time, and it's late January. I don't know the logistics of Russia, say, rushing ill-equipped soldiers into the field in the depths of winter, or shoving in a ton of armor in the early muddy days of spring. I would just feel better if the tanks were up and ready before Russia had any chance to realistically take advantage of their absence.

That's it. I'm happy Ukraine is getting these top-of-the-line items and still do not believe Russia will nuke us for it.

[Corvus]

At least one russian seems to understand the significance of western tanks - he is saying that even the basic export model of the Abrams is superior to anything russia has in serial production, and that they lack 3rd gen ATGMs like the Javelin, and that older ATGMs are the bulk of their forces Also that russian tanks are using older soviet ammo, which is sufficient at close ranges against Ukrainian tanks but putting them at a disadvantage against Western tanks.

[Edge-]

Yes, they are very pissed, but (interestingly) no one is afraid of Russia's responses.

It's not actually that interesting.

What's Russia gonna do, sail a few of their warships into US/German harbors and then sink them?

[YUPPIE]

It's not actually that interesting.

it was interesting before and now to a degree when Russia waved the nuke and invasion (we're gonna invade YOU next) threats for defiance, people would scramble to not displease them too much. We can see that in Schol even now.

But nowadays, people just don't seem to care all that much. Kazakhstan in particular, despite having Russian forces oppress civil unrest prior to the war, has just been verbally shitting on Russia non-stop since. And Kazak is not a superpower or anything powerful.

Russia has yet to do anything truly meaningful to make the world at large fear them, since its raping and murdering of civilians seems to only anger and disgust than scare anyone.

[Corvus]

On the subject of superior Western tank tech, this is how impressive the gun stabilisers are on the Leopard.