Russian invasion of Ukraine

[YUPPIE]

Because that's not how the US government works, you're seemingly confusing it for Russia.

how can we stop Russia then?

They're still getting money to wage their war from business venues, North Korea and Iran are funneling weapons despite us already knowing, and worst of all, Ukraine has noted lack of interest is setting in.

And for how people will say we're killing the shit out of Russians in Ukraine, they just keep coming back like zombies. The aforementioned all-out final assault on Kyiv I kept alluding to up to now from December? Just today in some grim news, Zelenksy has noted IT IS COMING.

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nears the one-year mark, Kyiv is sounding an increasingly urgent warning: President Vladimir Putin is preparing a major new offensive as troops amass on the border.

[Corvus]

You misunderstand how sanctions work - they don't instantly destroy an economy.

russia is sellings it oil and gas at near cost. They are basically making no money from it but have to keep selling as if they stop then their wells freeze up and last time that happened it took years and western tech and expertise to reopen them again. Which they won't get this time.

Likewise there are many, many other areas which are gradually degrading as they can't get western tech to keep up with repairs. russia doesn't make ball bearings for starters and they are essential components in many things. Their entire rail network is dependent on western tech. Their air industry is dependent on western tech.

They are now spending one third of their budget on the war. All other services are suffering as a result. Healthcare, education, pensions, civil servants pay, all is being impacted by 1) the shrinking budget and 2) the expanding war budget. There is only so long that can go on before things really break.

The NK and Iranian markets are tiny compared to the markets they have lost.

And they admitted to thier population shrinking by more than half a million last year. Given russia lies, expect it to be higher. Their demographics were already in a terminal state but this is just accelerating it.

[Yunru]

you got a source for that? Specifically the wounded?

https://www.minusrus.com/en

Its only source with this numbers tho. So it not 100% true for sure.

[YUPPIE]

I'm not sure why this thread is gaining so little traction or why there is relative apathy with this event about to happen: I mentioned it several times already, but here's full (new as of today) context and speech with citations

Ukraine warns Russia massing 500,000 troops on border for offensive

Ukraine is warning that Moscow is regrouping hundred of thousands of troops on the border for a massive new offensive, just weeks before the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday gave a stark message to the West when he forecast that the Kremlin was building up its forces to take “revenge.”

“Now Russia is concentrating its forces. We all know that. It is preparing to try to take revenge, not only against Ukraine, but against a free Europe and the free world,” Zelensky said at a press conference alongside European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, as reported by Agence France-Presse.

“Officially, they announced 300,000, but when we see the troops at the borders, according to our assessments it is much more,” Reznikov said.

And senior Ukrainian defense ministry official Yuriy Sak told NBC News Thursday that officials are worried Moscow’s military is preparing for a soon-to-come assault aimed at turning the war in the Kremlin’s favor.

“We should understand that the threat of a new and another offensive will remain until we defeat Russia,” Sak said.

Western and Ukrainian officials have long warned that Russia is planning a renewed spring offensive after a series of embarrassing defeats in summer and fall and a near stalemate over the winter.

But the warnings are picking up ahead of the war’s one-year anniversary on Feb. 24.

Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, tweeted Thursday he had spoken with U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley about a new Kremlin offensive.

Russian forces, which have made significant advances around the eastern city of Bakhmut over the past two weeks — their biggest gain in the war since summer — are looking to finally take the city and push past the incremental gains into bigger battlefield wins.

Moscow is hoping the hundreds of thousands of reservists and new conscripts it called up in the fall will allow it to reconstitute military units depleted last year.

Driving the timeline forward is a small gap between newly pledged Western battle vehicles and tanks and when Ukraine will actually take possession of the weapons, experts predict
---------

[Yunru]

You misunderstand how sanctions work - they don't instantly destroy an economy.

russia is sellings it oil and gas at near cost. They are basically making no money from it but have to keep selling as if they stop then their wells freeze up and last time that happened it took years and western tech and expertise to reopen them again. Which they won't get this time.

Likewise there are many, many other areas which are gradually degrading as they can't get western tech to keep up with repairs. russia doesn't make ball bearings for starters and they are essential components in many things. Their entire rail network is dependent on western tech. Their air industry is dependent on western tech.

They are now spending one third of their budget on the war. All other services are suffering as a result. Healthcare, education, pensions, civil servants pay, all is being impacted by 1) the shrinking budget and 2) the expanding war budget. There is only so long that can go on before things really break.

The NK and Iranian markets are tiny compared to the markets they have lost.

And they admitted to thier population shrinking by more than half a million last year. Given russia lies, expect it to be higher. Their demographics were already in a terminal state but this is just accelerating it.

Well they dont have to sell those, they can just direct them into ocean to avoid damage to them. And they will probaly do that once sanctions stats for other countrys that buy their gas and oil.

[Veggie50]

Yuppie knows, he just doesn’t wanna hear any of it. So many of his posts are structured like this;

“Look at how arrogant and foolish russia is for stating [Insert russian propaganda].

They kind of have a point though… because [Insert misinformation].”

It’s honestly quite nausiating.

[Saradain]

Yuppie knows, he just doesn’t wanna hear any of it. So many of his posts are structured like this;

“Look at how arrogant and foolish russia is for stating [Insert russian propaganda].

They kind of have a point though… because [Insert misinformation].”

It’s honestly quite nausiating.

Can't wait for Tweek to evolve to an adult and start shilling NFTs instead.

Endless misinformation, endless twisting facts.

Now it's mega super hyper doomsday all out assault on Kyiv, then it'll be just Donetsk area anniversary zerg rush, and I would guess the previous claims will be either edited to hide the bullshit or plain ignoring anyone pointing out the misinformation and the cycle begins anew.

[YUPPIE]

With the alleged state of their economy and shrinking demographic, how does Russia has this capacity to send 500k more troops to the grinder? Most of them will die. That's why I stylize it as a "final assault" because if this fails, a lot of possibilities may open up from Russia's losses.

[Edge-]

With the alleged state of their economy and shrinking demographic, how does Russia has this capacity to send 500k more troops to the grinder? Most of them will die.

Yes, that's the point. You've found it out.

[Kaleredar]

Yuppie knows, he just doesn’t wanna hear any of it. So many of his posts are structured like this;

“Look at how arrogant and foolish russia is for stating [Insert russian propaganda].

They kind of have a point though… because [Insert misinformation].”

It’s honestly quite nausiating.

Now now now, I'd say that's but one of three mad-libs style frameworks they use.

Other ones include:

"Look at how [insert country acting on its own volition to support Ukraine] is [providing support to Ukraine/doing thing Russia doesn't like.] Doesn't that risk Russia finally pulling the gloves off to take action and [insert nonsensical threat of force Russia has zero capacity to carry out]?"

or:

"Look, [insert Russian, or Russia-aligned country's, mouthpiece] said this: [insert quote of tired and trite hollow threat.] Truly, this bodes poorly for Ukraine and their western allies. [reasoning withheld]"

[Saradain]

Now now now, I'd say that's but one of three mad-libs style frameworks they use.

Other ones include:

"Look at how [insert country acting on its own volition to support Ukraine] is [providing support to Ukraine/doing thing Russia doesn't like.] Doesn't that risk Russia finally pulling the gloves off to take action and [insert nonsensical threat of force Russia has zero capacity to carry out]?"

or:

"Look, [insert Russian, or Russia-aligned country's, mouthpiece] said this: [insert quote of tired and trite hollow threat.] Truly, this bodes poorly for Ukraine and their western allies. [reasoning withheld]"

[Insert meaningless leader of a shithole with no other power than abusing the fair and democratic right of delaying decisions because Putin told so] & [Insert EU/NATO/Good guys did it anyway, making Putin sad]

VOWS. WITH VENGEANCE.

[Corvus]

There is a reason we keep mentioning russian demographics and how even before this it was in dire straits. This is the demographic pyramid from BEFORE the war started.



See how bad the numbers are for the under 30s males? Now take away all those that are now dead, crippled or fled the country - and then take out another half million that they want to mobilise and will suffer similar straits. Yeah, russia's demographics are going to go from merely dire to catastrophic.

- - - Updated - - -

Interestingly, Netanyahu has been dropping some hints that Israel is considering sending weapons to Ukraine, which is a change of direction. Predictably, Moscow has 'threatened' Israel not to do so.

[Iphie]

There is a reason we keep mentioning russian demographics and how even before this it was in dire straits. This is the demographic pyramid from BEFORE the war started.



See how bad the numbers are for the under 30s males? Now take away all those that are now dead, crippled or fled the country - and then take out another half million that they want to mobilise and will suffer similar straits. Yeah, russia's demographics are going to go from merely dire to catastrophic.

- - - Updated - - -

Interestingly, Netanyahu has been dropping some hints that Israel is considering sending weapons to Ukraine, which is a change of direction. Predictably, Moscow has 'threatened' Israel not to do so.

Funny what a little help from Iran can do, eh?

Those demographics are interesting btw, if you go and have a look at the various ethnicities within the russian federation it gets even worse for some minority groups, Belarusians, Germans and Ukrainians are well below sustainable levels, their demographics are inverted pyramids.

Given that an estimated 1 million men of military age fled, about 500000 are now involved in the conflict, be it as fertilizer or mobik or whatever and that before the war a lot of smart people already left if they had the means (money, marketable skill, marriage, etc.) I'd say that the lower end of the pyramid will be very narrow and after the war there will be a surplus of russian mail order brides. (If people are even interested in those)

[YUPPIE]

Israel is supporting Ukraine all of a sudden (compared to their neutrality before) likely because Iran, now officially stating Israel was behind the attacks on their drone factories, swore vengeance on them.

[Kallisto]

Israel is supporting Ukraine all of a sudden (compared to their neutrality before) likely because Iran, now officially stating Israel was behind the attacks on their drone factories, swore vengeance on them.

Israel attacked Iran for Israeli reasons, Ukraine benefitting is a secondary. It's likely they had word Iran was going to supply Hamas or Hezbollah and decided to get in first. Israel doesn't need an excuse to strike at Iran, Iran has given so many reasons in the past 40+ years even before the war in Ukraine.

[Corvus]

Visually confirmed russian heavy equipment losses by Oryx now stand at over NINE THOUSAND.

[YUPPIE]

I know it's not new, but Russia has an obsession with Moldova lately. In light of the all-out assault on Kyiv impending, Lavrov stated Moldova is "assuredly" next after Ukraine in a speech threatening them.

In an interview to Russia Today CEO Dmitry Kiselev, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the West “has got its sights” on Moldova as a country that will “follow Ukraine’s path” by turning into an “anti-Russia.”

Lavrov’s insinuations, particularly about President Maia Sandu and her alleged desire to join NATO, were met with sharp criticism from Moldova’s Foreign Ministry. Its spokesman Daniel Voda underscored how familiar and threatening Lavrov’s language sounded. “It is clear,” he tweeted, that Lavrov’s statements “are part of the already well-known threatening rhetoric of Russian diplomacy.”

“The question is not whether the Russian Federation will launch a new offensive in the direction of Moldovan territory, but when it will happen: either at the beginning of the year, in January, February, or later, in March, (or) April,” Musteata told TVR Moldova. “This is a real and very high risk.”

“Judging by the information we have… Russia can go further to create a corridor with the Transnistrian region, which is the territory of Moldova,” Musteata said.

[Gabriel]

With the alleged state of their economy and shrinking demographic, how does Russia has this capacity to send 500k more troops to the grinder? Most of them will die. That's why I stylize it as a "final assault" because if this fails, a lot of possibilities may open up from Russia's losses.

It doesn't. Russia is killing itself with this war.

[Corvus]

Pfft, there is zero chance russia can do anything to Moldova because they will never get anywhere near there. At this point it'd be easier to list who russia hasn't threatened with attacking.

And while Moldova isn't in NATO, attacking them would draw in Romania at the least given they were one country once until the USSR split them apart and there is talk of reuniting.

[YUPPIE]

Pfft, there is zero chance russia can do anything to Moldova because they will never get anywhere near there.

everything hinges on the battle upcoming in Ukraine.