Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Ettan]

I wonder if this was made when Trump was president and the idea of him at least attempting to pull the US out of NATO seemed realistic if he won a second term.

That was never his real aim. The whole trump stick was that he wanted to lessen the military expenditure of the us.
As the us historically and in the present always has taken the vast burden of maintaining the power of nato.
The 2% expenditure of gdp was agreed upon commonly back in 2006 but was never really followed through on by member states.

Trump wanted to make that mandatory (not just him tbh many of the less dovish nato members wanted to make that mandatory).
Like a pay your bills or else we let the wolves eat you.
It worked somewhat but not very well sadly. As no major threat presented itself clearly, it was hard for governments to defend the extra expenditure.
And worse yet it was a very lose threat, the option never presented itself as something realistic. (Strategically the loss of such vast/ important territories would always mean it was never going to be a genuine option).

Now the climate is somewhat different you could say lol, and we can thank Putin for that.
Shame that we needed something like this to wake up.

But understandable at the same time, we in europe have enjoyed the american peace for so long that people have come to believe it is something natural.

[Flarelaine]

To be fair, the first part, the expanded military cooperation has already happened.

But yeah, the NATO countries are not going to happen. It's amazing how disconnected they are and how delusional they are about this stuff.

Hindsight is 20/20. If this document sets out the first phase to be finished in 2022, then it was authored before the invasion and probably years earlier. They expected Ukraine to roll over. We know it did not happen but it was not altogether unrealistic - if they had succeeded in taking Kyiv in a coup de main, the decapitated country may have become paralysed long enough for their purposes. That in turn would have created a different picture for NATO. Especially if they counted on Trump holding the US back from intervening.

- - - Updated - - -

Seems like it was mostly SALT stuff I missed.

There was certainly a lot of salt. Such a lot as you would need if, say, someone was to warp in a few spaceships full of popcorn.

[Shadowferal]

SALT as "Strategic Arms Limitation Talks?" Which in turn led to START; Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties, which proposed limits on multiple-warhead capacities and other restrictions...

[Makabreska]

That's really kinda the case everywhere, isn't it? I mean the US does it, the Netherlands, the britts, pretty much everyone.

But it was Russia who had a systemic doping plan going on in which even Ministry of Sport was involved. "Win at all cost" is ruskies mentality. Gotta show their supposed supremacy, even if cheating.

[Iphie]

But it was Russia who had a systemic doping plan going on in which even Ministry of Sport was involved. "Win at all cost" is ruskies mentality. Gotta show their supposed supremacy, even if cheating.

Clearly you've missed the DDR... I'm not saying russia didn't do it but boy were they put to shame by them.

[Gorsameth]

Clearly you've missed the DDR... I'm not saying russia didn't do it but boy were they put to shame by them.

And if the DDR still existed and competed we would be all for banning them.

I fail to see how this is not just whataboutism.

[Makabreska]

Clearly you've missed the DDR... I'm not saying russia didn't do it but boy were they put to shame by them.

And what it has to do with anything? We are talking about here and now. And here and now is Russia being so goddamn systemically corrupt that they can't even compete fairly in sport. Good riddance.

[zorkuus]

Clearly you've missed the DDR... I'm not saying russia didn't do it but boy were they put to shame by them.

You're unwittingly engaged in ruZZki whataboutism. tsk tsk

[Forogil]

You're unwittingly engaged in ruZZki whataboutism. tsk tsk

I thought it was a subtle diss of Russia - not even good at cheating.

[Zaydin]

Just curious: What do people think the odds are of Russia utterly collapsing when Putin dies? He's spent decades arranging Russia as being incapable of functioning without him leading it, after all, and his successor will not have the same kind of influence he does. Wouldn't be the first country that had been ruled by a dictator for decades that fell apart when the dictator died; see also Tito and Yugoslavia.

[Xyonai]

Just curious: What do people think the odds are of Russia utterly collapsing when Putin dies? He's spent decades arranging Russia as being incapable of functioning without him leading it, after all, and his successor will not have the same kind of influence he does. Wouldn't be the first country that had been ruled by a dictator for decades that fell apart when the dictator died; see also Tito and Yugoslavia.

I don't predict a full collapse; it has enough industry and resources to keep limping along after Putin's out of power and could - maybe - work itself back up to a quasi respectable regional power if they give up on antagonizing literally every other country within arm's reach. If Putin's not elected out, and dies in office, I can see a massive shitshow happening to find a successor, though.

[Santti]

Just curious: What do people think the odds are of Russia utterly collapsing when Putin dies? He's spent decades arranging Russia as being incapable of functioning without him leading it, after all, and his successor will not have the same kind of influence he does. Wouldn't be the first country that had been ruled by a dictator for decades that fell apart when the dictator died; see also Tito and Yugoslavia.

I doubt Putin dying would change much. Might hasten Russia getting out of Ukraine, should that war still be going at that point, but I doubt him dying would have much affect on whether Russia collapses or not. Putin came from nowhere, and I'm sure there are plenty of people like him around the corner.

[Zaydin]

I don't predict a full collapse; it has enough industry and resources to keep limping along after Putin's out of power and could - maybe - work itself back up to a quasi respectable regional power if they give up on antagonizing literally every other country within arm's reach. If Putin's not elected out, and dies in office, I can see a massive shitshow happening to find a successor, though.

Do you really think Putin would ever allow the risk of actually being kicked out of office by voters to actually happen?

When Putin dies, what happens in Russia will depend on how much influence his handpicked successor has.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Just curious: What do people think the odds are of Russia utterly collapsing when Putin dies? He's spent decades arranging Russia as being incapable of functioning without him leading it, after all, and his successor will not have the same kind of influence he does. Wouldn't be the first country that had been ruled by a dictator for decades that fell apart when the dictator died; see also Tito and Yugoslavia.

It depends. If someone with enough weight behind them steps into his position, the structure that Putin has made use of could be enough to hold it together. The nightmare scenario would be if nobody has enough momentum behind them to step into that position and you have a group of wannabe Putins all consolidating their positions in small parts of Russia. The end result could be a whole bunch of small states with physical access to nuclear weapons (even if they can't properly use or maintain them).

It could get pretty ugly. Because I don't think Putin has given a moments thought to how the "handover" of power is going to look. He doesn't care if Russia burns to the ground once he's gone.

The plus side of all that is that Russia will never again be a threat to the eastern part of Europe, who'll probably join NATO pretty quickly to avoid troubles from any of those small parts of Russia seeking to expand their borders. But China might start gobbling up parts of what is currently eastern Russia, and who knows how that plays out.

Probably won't be a fun time whatever happens, for Russia itself or the rest of the world. That kind of uncertainty and conflict never is.

[zealo]

Just curious: What do people think the odds are of Russia utterly collapsing when Putin dies? He's spent decades arranging Russia as being incapable of functioning without him leading it, after all, and his successor will not have the same kind of influence he does. Wouldn't be the first country that had been ruled by a dictator for decades that fell apart when the dictator died; see also Tito and Yugoslavia.

Yugoslavia was a multicultural country in a way Russia really isn't.

Russians are the ethnic and cultural majority in most regions of Russia proper outside of some exceptions near the Caucasus in the south, I can't really see the state collapsing for the reasons as Yugoslavia.

[Corvus]

Did pootie pre-record his speech at 1 in the morning, because the audience looked half asleep and really struggling to stay awake, even with the threat of open windows.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...135031808?s=20

[Kallisto]

Did pootie pre-record his speech at 1 in the morning, because the audience looked half asleep and really struggling to stay awake, even with the threat of open windows.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...135031808?s=20

Was a special staying awake operation

[Edge-]

Did pootie pre-record his speech at 1 in the morning, because the audience looked half asleep and really struggling to stay awake, even with the threat of open windows.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...135031808?s=20

Who is this audience supposed to be? Lots of folks in suits and whatnot, then random monk and (I think) Russian Orthodox guy with a few military dudes behind them, navy and I assume army?

[KrayZ33]

Putin ASMR- so soothing, he fell asleep - forever.

[Gorsameth]

It depends. If someone with enough weight behind them steps into his position, the structure that Putin has made use of could be enough to hold it together. The nightmare scenario would be if nobody has enough momentum behind them to step into that position and you have a group of wannabe Putins all consolidating their positions in small parts of Russia. The end result could be a whole bunch of small states with physical access to nuclear weapons (even if they can't properly use or maintain them).

It could get pretty ugly. Because I don't think Putin has given a moments thought to how the "handover" of power is going to look. He doesn't care if Russia burns to the ground once he's gone.

The plus side of all that is that Russia will never again be a threat to the eastern part of Europe, who'll probably join NATO pretty quickly to avoid troubles from any of those small parts of Russia seeking to expand their borders. But China might start gobbling up parts of what is currently eastern Russia, and who knows how that plays out.

Probably won't be a fun time whatever happens, for Russia itself or the rest of the world. That kind of uncertainty and conflict never is.

I don't know that Putin doesn't care for what comes after him.
If he didn't care about the future of Russia he wouldn't be so fiercely fighting to keep its sphere of influence alive while his health deteriorates. He already has absolute power in Russia, if he only cared about himself he could live out the rest of his days in comfort and peace.
He wants a legacy, the glory of the USSR restored. That requires it doesn't all burn down the moment he falls over.