Russian invasion of Ukraine

[zorkuus]

I mean they "could" it would just end up with the same happening to them. Which is why they won't go there.

At this point I'm not so sure about their nukes either. Or about their competency to use theem.

[Heathy]

I think escalation just prevents it, there was a video posted a bit back about the potential for them to drop a nuke but in reality even tactical nukes aren't really that tactically useful.

likewise the russian army is barely capable of operating on a regular battlefield, they would be flatly unable to perform on a nuclear battlefield. putin is a bit of a nut case though so there is the uncertainty principle, based around him potentially doing anything but, it probably wouldn't pay off.

[Iphie]

Even then the Serbian government had to be aware. It's not going to be blind to arms exports to a country that is openly supplying Ukraine would end up in Ukraine.

I'm guessing they're still pissed at Wagner advertising in Serbia.

You might be right.

[jonnysensible]

lol ukies got hacks on : https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/st...28391627644928

[zorkuus]

lol ukies got hacks on : https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/st...28391627644928

Or the ruZZkies got stormtrooper aim.

[Corvus]

russia was predicting a 2.9 trillion ruble deficit for the year. By the end of February they are already at 4 trillion. And thats going by the cooked figures. They can keep pumping money into the system to keep it going but that can't last forever.

And nor can russia's supply of equipment. They have only one factory that can make tanks, and only 20 a month reportedly. Meanwhile they are loosing well over 100 a month. Down at Vuhledar, visual confirmed losses from their repeated failed attempts now stand at around 130 armoured vehicles. And they still keep trying.

[ringpriest]

At this point I'm not so sure about their nukes either. Or about their competency to use theem.

Their ICBMs and SLBMs were in iffy shape at the end of the Cold War. (America's were likely never as reliable as their generals liked to pretend either, but were certainly in better shape than the Soviet Union's by 1990.) What the actual reliability of both Russian delivery systems and warheads are like after a decade of Yeltsin and two decades of Putin, I cannot imagine.

The catch, for any Russian opponent planning a counterforce first strike, is that there's no good way to know which ones will fail, so you still have to try and get everything and hope you can deal with whatever remnant actually launches.(Actually trying would be a roll of the dice with human civilization's survival riding on the outcome, and thus foolish in the extreme. IMNSHO.)

The flip side is that Putin likely doesn't know either. (That's probably why we haven't seen a saber-rattling nuclear test on Kola Peninsula.) And if Russia tries a nuclear strike on Ukraine and it fails the value of the Russian strategic deterrent immediately collapses.

[Iphie]

Nobody wants to find out, but given the corruption it is very unlikely that stuff has been properly maintained, and even the inspections under New START could have been faked. The last sentence is certainly one of two reasons not to attempt a nuke strike...well, one of 3 actually, but the third is not something the russians control:

1. Order strike, fail miserably result: deterrent gone, putin gone
2. Order strike, order refused result: putin gone.

3. Order strike, order obeyed, strike succesful, NATO responds, putin gone.

Any rational actor sees that using, or trying to use, nukes has more downsides that upsides.

[Veggie50]

Also, aside from the iffy state of the ICBM’s, it is not unlikely that the nuclear warheads themselves have not been sufficiently maintained.

Those things can’t just be shelved, there goes a LOT into keeping them full of big boom potential

[Flarelaine]

We cannot really prevent posters from dropping "NUKES!" in the thread occassionally, but please move back to discussing actual events.

[Iphie]

Something is going down in Briansk, Rosguard deployed with MLRS GRAD against...*checks notes*...the Russian Volunteer Corps?

[Corvus]

Man, this stinks of false flag - a group of men looking far too clean and with far too much yellow tape on have occupied villages on the russian side of the border, taken hostages and videoed themselves calling for an 'uprising.' They haven't even hidden their faces. And like clockwork there are calls in russia for a response to the 'attack' to declare a full scale war against the 'terrorist regime that has occupied Ukraine.'

[jonnysensible]

Man, this stinks of false flag - a group of men looking far too clean and with far too much yellow tape on have occupied villages on the russian side of the border, taken hostages and videoed themselves calling for an 'uprising.' They haven't even hidden their faces. And like clockwork there are calls in russia for a response to the 'attack' to declare a full scale war against the 'terrorist regime that has occupied Ukraine.'

nah its legit they are just from the russian volunteer corps, looks like they popped across the border took pictures and went back.

[Iphie]

Russians be smoking again apparently:

Military Il-76MD aircraft exploded during test at the plant in Ulyanovsk killing 1, wounding 5 more engineers

Source is livemap linking to a russian telegram channel.

(included for the sake of completeness: https://t.me/bazabazon/16139)

[Corvus]

Something appears to have gone bang near Moscow. Given this is russia, it might be unrelated given how often things catch fire. But it is also the site of a lot of military manufacturing of rockets and the like.

The 'incident' in Bryansk has been labeled 'terrorism' by pootie even though nothing really happened. Still smells a it fishy, given the group involved isn't associated with the Ukrainian military and oppose pootie because they don't think he is extreme enough. It also only has about 50 members - most russians fighting against russian aren't in it. Their stated goal is a russian ethnostate ruled by the czars again.

[Iphie]

Something appears to have gone bang near Moscow. Given this is russia, it might be unrelated given how often things catch fire.

The 'incident' in Bryansk has been labeled 'terrorism' by pootie even though nothing really happened. Still smells a it fishy, given the group involved isn't associated with the Ukrainian military and oppose pootie because they don't think he is extreme enough. It also only has about 50 members - most russians fighting against russian aren't in it. There stated goal is a russian ethnostate ruled by the czars again.

....I...what? A case of, the enemy of my enemy is...not my friend, then?

[Edge-]

Something appears to have gone bang near Moscow. Given this is russia, it might be unrelated given how often things catch fire. But it is also the site of a lot of military manufacturing of rockets and the like.

The 'incident' in Bryansk has been labeled 'terrorism' by pootie even though nothing really happened. Still smells a it fishy, given the group involved isn't associated with the Ukrainian military and oppose pootie because they don't think he is extreme enough. It also only has about 50 members - most russians fighting against russian aren't in it. Their stated goal is a russian ethnostate ruled by the czars again.

Uh...Gary Oldman from Air Force One?

Also, are these the folks that Putin is saying are apparently Ukrainian saboteurs or something? I saw a headline about him complaining about Ukrainians maybe blowing something up deep in Russian territory and was like...why would you complain about that? Isn't that a bit embarassing?

[Xyonai]

....I...what? A case of, the enemy of my enemy is...not my friend, then?

I say let the fascist idiots kill each-other; they're too numerically small to make any real change to the country so not worried about them getting hands on Ruskie Nukes, but given Russia's military aptitude these fifty guys might be able to remain a thorn in Putin's side for a good long while.

[Kaleredar]

Uh...Gary Oldman from Air Force One?

Also, are these the folks that Putin is saying are apparently Ukrainian saboteurs or something? I saw a headline about him complaining about Ukrainians maybe blowing something up deep in Russian territory and was like...why would you complain about that? Isn't that a bit embarassing?

Now to be fair, Putin doesn't have a lot of narrative options when something within Russia's borders explode. He can either say it was:

1) Ukrainians, implying they are strong enough to reach within Russia to deal damage to Russia directly
2) Internal Russian resistance, implying that not all of Russia is going along with Putin's grand plan and that they exist in sizeable enough numbers to inflict harm in Russia
3) An accident, implying Russian incompetence


None of these really fit the "Russia stronk" narrative. At least the "it was Ukraine" talking point keeps Russian attention focused on fighting Ukraine.

[callipygoustp]

Crowd erupts in laughter at Russia's top diplomat after he claimed the Ukraine war 'was launched against us'

That's the India G20 crowd.