Russian invasion of Ukraine

[YUPPIE]

I wouldn't say that's bad shit. I would say they have every goddamn right to.

it's bad in the sense we're about to see a whole lot of death and destruction in one go.

The Ukrainians have been planning forever for this moment, so this is where some of the fiercest fighting will commence.

[MCMLXXXII]

But I thought you would appreciate some real gore? Some scary shit, unlike your profile pic.

[Cynical Asshole]

it's bad in the sense we're about to see a whole lot of death and destruction in one go.

The Ukrainians have been planning forever for this moment, so this is where some of the fiercest fighting will commence.

Already Russians can't do shit anymore in Ukraine. Taking Bakhmut was their last ditch effort, and it didn't even swing the course of the war even by a bit, they just took possession of an utterly destroyed city. Their drones and rockets are all shot down by Patriot systems, barely any of them make it through and they just cost money that Russia can ill afford. And Ukraine is now going to have F-16s.

Quiet capitulation is a thing. It's when you lost and you know you lost, but you won't retreat nor publically admit that you lost.

Medvedev and Shoigu can yell and threaten as much as they want, no one is impressed. What, moving some nukes to Belarus? Hahaha, who cares? Everyone knows they won't use them. They can't use them lest NATO will involve directly with boots on the ground in purely defensive positions, however, any attack on NATO troops means the start of WW3 and Putin doesn't have the balls and neither does he want his legacy to be Hitler 2 - despised and loathed by the entire world for centuries, and nor does China want to be dragged into it.

Putin's next step is more conscriptions, he's got nothing else, his forces are spent. We'll see how well that will go with the populace.

[Gorsameth]

Already Russians can't do shit anymore in Ukraine. Taking Bakhmut was their last ditch effort, and it didn't even swing the course of the war even by a bit, they just took possession of an utterly destroyed city. Their drones and rockets are all shot down by Patriot systems, barely any of them make it through and they just cost money that Russia can ill afford. And Ukraine is now going to have F-16s.

Quiet capitulation is a thing. It's when you lost and you know you lost, but you won't retreat nor publically admit that you lost.

Medvedev and Shoigu can yell and threaten as much as they want, no one is impressed. What, moving some nukes to Belarus? Hahaha, who cares? Everyone knows they won't use them. They can't use them lest NATO will involve directly with boots on the ground in purely defensive positions, however, any attack on NATO troops means the start of WW3 and Putin doesn't have the balls and neither does he want his legacy to be Hitler 2 - despised and loathed by the entire world for centuries, and nor does China want to be dragged into it.

Putin's next step is more conscriptions, he's got nothing else, his forces are spent. We'll see how well that will go with the populace.

What would he be arming those new conscripts with?

[Calfredd]

What would he be arming those new conscripts with?

At this point? Cooking utensils.

[Cynical Asshole]

What would he be arming those new conscripts with?

Oh I'm sure Russia still has plenty of basic hardware like tanks and rifles, not to mention planes.

[draynay]

Oh I'm sure Russia still has plenty of basic hardware like tanks and rifles, not to mention planes.

Putting untrained teenage conscripts into planes so they can be fodder for German AA guns doesn't sound very cost effective.

[Azadina]

Oh I'm sure Russia still has plenty of basic hardware like tanks and rifles, not to mention planes.

Yeah, T34's. They're not getting far with them.

[Elder Millennial]

Oh I'm sure Russia still has plenty of basic hardware like tanks and rifles, not to mention planes.

"Plenty" is debatable. They might have numbers or tonnage, but the utility of the gear and the Russian's ability to maintain it is what's in question.

Here's a couple of things we know for a fact.

1. Ukrainian air space is heavily contested and the Russians lack the ability to operate inside Ukrainian airspace. Even over areas they technically control there's only a very limited area in which they can operate near the front lines. The effectiveness of ground based long range radar controlled air defenses coupled with MANPADs has seriously been underestimated before this conflict. We haven't really seen a real near pear or pear modern war in a very long time. What we know now, is that in a near pear fight the attrition rate on anything flying would be exponentially higher than it has been previously estimated. Western air power is decades ahead of the Russians in technological capability and practical skills (they fly more and in general have been fighting more than the Russians for decades), but it's now recognized that in a near pear conflict like let's say US v China, the attrition rate on jets and bombers would be absolutely horrendous.

So the Russians mostly use their planes not as close air support but as long range artillery. Essentially fly to the edge of contested airspace, fire off missiles and turn. On the odd cases when they do absolutely have to try and fly close air support (they are really bad it) they fly low and engage in some weird maneuvers that makes accurate fire near impossible due to the limitations of their targeting systems because they are incredibly vulnerable to MANPADs. So they generally just won't do close air support.

Planes are incredibly maintenance intensive, yes even the Russian ones. The bulk of the Russian airforce is flying 30 to 40 year old airframes, the average jet needs dozens of hours of routine maintenance for every single hour of flight under normal conditions, the situation is much much worse when they fly combat operations. Their ability to keep their jets flying is ...questionable. Even assuming they have the alleged 1000+ airframes, there are questions about how many of those are 1. air worthy 2. can be maintained. Analysts guesstimated the real number to be closer to about 300 to a maximum of 400 jets and bombers that were operational...about 12 months ago. Realistically, that number has been halved since then. Not necessarily because they've been shot down, but because they can't maintain them.

This also explains why they never actually achieved air superiority when the invasion started. On paper, the Russians outnumbered the Ukrainian air force something like 7 or 8 to one (remember you can't deploy every single air worthy plane you have at the same time in one place), tho the real number was most likely only something like 3 or 4 to 1. That ratio coupled with Ukrainian air defenses meant the Russians never could achieve air superiority. They still probably maintain that 3 or 4 to 1 ratio...but it's a number that will inevitably start dwindling as this war drags out and more and more planes are used up by simple attrition, end up cannibalized for parts etc.

2. Many of the same maintenance issues mentioned above also apply to the Russian armored forces. Russia has a very very limited production capacity. Also seemingly they aren't actually that focused on building more tanks, but rather on refurbishing or modernizing older chassis. At the cost and in the time of building a new T72 or something, they can fix up or at least make combat worthy 3-4 T60s in deep storage. Tho unlike with their planes they haven't been very conservative with their armor, so they ended up losing horrible amounts of it.

According to most recent analysis, in Ukraine, the Ukrainians are currently the more mechanized force. As shocking as this is.

The only area where the Russians seem to have retained dominance is artillery. Even there the attrition problems are starting to show. Remember those T50s that they have been sending to Ukraine? Well those aren't used as tanks, they are used as short range mobile artillery for indirect fire. Even there, they started using up their unholy stockpiles.

[Gorsameth]

Russia also skipped step #1 of establishing air control because they legit thought this was a 3 day operation and were expecting to take the country intact.
Its not for nothing that any Western air campaign in preceded by a large scale missile attack aimed at taking out air defence installations.

[Cynical Asshole]

So apparently Putin just whacked Lukashenko.

After a closed doors meeting with Putin, Lukashenko was rushed to the hospital. Nothing on media yet, just reports.

[YUPPIE]

So apparently Putin just whacked Lukashenko.

After a closed doors meeting with Putin, Lukashenko was rushed to the hospital. Nothing on media yet, just reports.

post a link at least before getting people's hopes up. Because I've been trying to find anything on this.

But anyway if Putin did kill Lukashenko, it'd be interesting because that means his servant talked back to him. I never pictured Lukashenko as someone that ever had any will of his own; only unfaltering loyalty to Putin.

[Cynical Asshole]

post a link at least before getting people's hopes up. Because I've been trying to find anything on this.

But anyway if Putin did kill Lukashenko, it'd be interesting because that means his servant talked back to him. I never pictured Lukashenko as someone that ever had any will of his own; only unfaltering loyalty to Putin.

Just heard on news, but when I rushed to hear more, they already changed the subject. Only other thing I could find is a Twitter post from some guy, maybe he knows more. https://twitter.com/PierreCrom/statu...57961501868033

[Makabreska]

Just heard on news, but when I rushed to hear more, they already changed the subject. Only other thing I could find is a Twitter post from some guy, maybe he knows more. https://twitter.com/PierreCrom/statu...57961501868033

Still nothing on the news, seems like a bullcrap.

[gondrin]

Regardless of posturing, when will others finally sanction Russia for nuclear scaremongering? That shit should never be considered "posturing" like it's harmless.

But Japan at least, with its fresh sanctions on Russia, have criticized them for this act.

Japan on Friday approved additional sanctions against Russia over its war on Ukraine, including freezing the assets of dozens of individuals and groups and banning exports to Russian military-related organizations.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told reporters the Cabinet approval shows Japan is in step with the rest of the Group of Seven countries that agreed during their summit in Hiroshima last week to maintain and strengthen sanctions against Russia.

He said Japan is committed to working with other G7 countries and the broader international community “to improve the situation” for Ukraine.

Matsuno also sharply criticized the signing of a deal between Russia and Belarus on Thursday formalizing the deployment of Moscow’s tactical nuclear weapons in its ally’s territory as a move that “further escalate tensions.”

“As the world’s only country to have suffered nuclear attacks, Japan finds Russia’s threats of nuclear weapons and their use absolutely impermissible,” Matsuno said. “Japan’s government demands Russia and Belarus stop actions that further escalate tensions as we continue to watch the development with strong concern.”

When it comes to nuclear weapons, it is a fools errand to use them in any way other than to saber rattle. North Korea does it constantly to demand food and other concessions and yet, they haven't launched anything nor will they. They know if they launch any nukes, their country would, for all intents and purposes, be wiped off of the map. Same with Russia. If they launched any nukes, that would the end of Russia.

I'm not saying it cannot happen. It just won't. Russia would have far too much to lose then to gain from using them. The only people that would actually use a nuke are the insane religious hardliners in parts of the world where they will behead people for petty crimes. But that is a topic that I will not get into so do not expect me to.

[Calfredd]

post a link at least before getting people's hopes up.

Because you can't wank to it until you know if it's true? Didn't stop you before when you kept screaming "nukes!"

[YUPPIE]

Because you can't wank to it until you know if it's true? Didn't stop you before when you kept screaming "nukes!"

if Lukashenko was killed by Putin, I think it adds up to the recent move of nukes to Belarus.

Not that I'm saying they plan to use them, but Putin is probably preparing to annex Belarus - hence the move signifying it as Russia now - and Lukashenko said "no".

[Cynical Asshole]

Found another source https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/statu...83898725482500

Multiple sources claim this. There must be something here.

[YUPPIE]

fuckk it might be true. If any of you were wondering how Russian forces vs Belarusian forces would look like in a hostile takeover, it may be happening

- - - Updated - - -

Found another source https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/statu...83898725482500

Multiple sources claim this. There must be something here.

damn, keep this thread informed.

[Gorsameth]

Come on... Lukashenko was ill before. The notion that Putin, who himself is supposedly very ill, personally whacked him in nonsense.
He may well be dead/dying/critical/whatever but lets not sensationalize things more then necessary.

And no, Putin is not annexing Belarus. The Belarusian army flat out refused orders to invade Ukraine previously so they are unlikely to go along with it and Russia is in absolutely no position to fight Belarus.