Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

There will still need to be some form of negotiated cease fire unless your plan is for them just just be shelling and shooting at each other from opposite sides of the boarder for the next few years.

Which is not unlikely to happen anyway, border skirmishes. Unless of course some serious guarantees come from third countries. But yes, SOME sort of negotiation will be needed for a ceasefire and a peace agreement.

[Slant]

There will still need to be some form of negotiated cease fire unless your plan is for them just just be shelling and shooting at each other from opposite sides of the boarder for the next few years.

I mean, Russia's about to run out of ammo as it is, I'd like to see them keep up a constant barrage in border fires. Like they could afford it. Military equipment production is halted because they're lacking western components, by the way. Just sayin'. People apparently still overrate the country and can't fathom just how deep the muckhole actually is.

[Specialka]

Hahahaha, yes, they left ammo, military equipment and fucking food trucks in an orderly retreat to regroup... absolutely, that's how military strategy works. Is this the same logic as "hey, let's send our worst troops into first contact, you know.. to soften the enemy up!"

Amazing lmao

Oh yes, they totally fucked up and all have seen that Russia is a paper tiger compared to western military (while Russia was claiming the contrary). The issue here is that Ukraine is not a western military (though supplied and trained by us).

They have been able to inflict significant losses to Russia, no doubt about that, but the difference is still huge. Putin won't let go, he can't let go. That is not the "Russian way".

[Gorsameth]

There will still need to be some form of negotiated cease fire unless your plan is for them just just be shelling and shooting at each other from opposite sides of the boarder for the next few years.

Yes that is likely what will happen.

A cease fire is up to Russia, they leave Ukraine and don't come back, we have a cease fire. Its entirely up to Russia, if Putin is unwilling to admit defeat and retreat there will be no peace because Ukraine certainly doesn't seem to be considering laying down their arms to get shot and raped.

These atrocities by the Russian army make it less likely for a deal to happen, not more likely.

[Slant]

Which is not unlikely to happen anyway, border skirmishes. Unless of course some serious guarantees come from third countries. But yes, SOME sort of negotiation will be needed for a ceasefire and a peace agreement.

There won't be a peace agreement. Russia won't do it, because they've lost all sanity. And Ukraine is not going to give them one inch. But once NATO arrives, things will calm down really quickly, I'm sure.

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Oh yes, they totally fucked up and all have seen that Russia is a paper tiger compared to western military (while Russia was claiming the contrary). The issue here is that Ukraine is not a western military (though supplied and trained by us).

They have been able to inflict significant losses to Russia, no doubt about that, but the difference is still huge. Putin won't let go, he can't let go. That is not the "Russian way".

I get that. But I also get that if your two options are "Fight and risk your life" and "Don't fight and definitely die after being raped." there's not really a choice to be made. Ukraine will keep going until all Russians are gone. In fact, a discussion that's more relevant and more probably to be had in the future is... how to stop Ukraine from ethnically cleansing themselves of pro-Russian people?

Also let's not forget the logistical side of this war. Crimea is a fucking long way away from Russia. And the UK just pledged another round of weapons. By the way, these 800 Javelins? That's more than Russia has tanks in theater. They can and are using Javelins on trucks and apcs, because they can... unlike Russia, who stopped MLRS barrages because they ran out of ammo.

There's only one way this is going, and it's definitely not going to end with Ukrainian concessions. And yes, I would bet with you on that. First few days I wasn't sure. Now? Ukraine is able to pick their fights, Russia is reacting. They kicked Russian ass in a defensive scramble, and now they're on the offensive and can actually pick fights they like. This is a different game now.

[Specialka]

There won't be a peace agreement. Russia won't do it, because they've lost all sanity. And Ukraine is not going to give them one inch. But once NATO arrives, things will calm down really quickly, I'm sure.

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I get that. But I also get that if your two options are "Fight and risk your life" and "Don't fight and definitely die after being raped." there's not really a choice to be made. Ukraine will keep going until all Russians are gone. In fact, a discussion that's more relevant and more probably to be had in the future is... how to stop Ukraine from ethnically cleansing themselves of pro-Russian people?

You can't stop that. It happened in France as well (during the Liberation), and there is not really something you can avoid (and imo, it has already started).

[Slant]

You can't stop that. It happened in France as well (during the Liberation), and there is not really something you can avoid (and imo, it has already started).

I don't blame them, but it mustn't become too bad... there's already a generation of kids growing up that know nothing but hate for anything Russian.

[Iphie]

There won't be a peace agreement. Russia won't do it, because they've lost all sanity. And Ukraine is not going to give them one inch. But once NATO arrives, things will calm down really quickly, I'm sure.

Ok, maybe not a peace agreement at this time, but at the very least a de-escalation, withdrawal and some form of agreement.

I get that. But I also get that if your two options are "Fight and risk your life" and "Don't fight and definitely die after being raped." there's not really a choice to be made. Ukraine will keep going until all Russians are gone. In fact, a discussion that's more relevant and more probably to be had in the future is... how to stop Ukraine from ethnically cleansing themselves of pro-Russian people?

Re: cleansing, I think the west will show REALLY quickly what they think of that if Ukraine does that, and that won't be very pretty.

edit: after the war, right now things happen which are bad and must be addressed but there's more pressing business.

[Breccia]

There won't be a peace agreement. Russia won't do it, because they've lost all sanity.

Well...Russia's current leadership won't do it. And I'm not going into detail on how that might change.

[zorkuus]

Uh, hard no on that. Sovereign nations are sovereign. And Russia needs to be able to defend itself just like Ukraine has a right to self-defense.

Russia right now is the literal definition of a rogue nation. But whatever.

Ideally they should be demilitarized and totally isolated. but we don't live in an ideal world.

[Canpinter]

I don't blame them, but it mustn't become too bad... there's already a generation of kids growing up that know nothing but hate for anything Russian.

Also there's some significant risk of people just branding those they have personal issues with as pro Russian just to get rid of them

[Cynep]

You're in Donetsk, right?

I've read that Russia turned it into something akin to a Mad Max world. There are no jobs but government jobs, everyone is "encouraged" to donate their salaries to the Separatist "army", people are joining the Separatist "army" because there are no jobs. That Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Sumy saw all this first hand is putatively why they're resisting so fiercely.

Is this accurate at all?

Not very accurate. Mad Max is anarchy world, we have a military dictatorship, like the opposite. If people from our proxy government come and say "we want this", you give it to them or you're pretty much shot dead. But other than that, order is strictly maintained. Lots of young smart people with no roots fled in 2014 and keep leaving, which is a big problem. Most jobs are indeed for government, and they don't pay much, you could say that most of good-paying jobs are in the army. But private businesses are allowed to run. As long as you fly under the radar and they don't want your stuff, you're poor but OK. I must admit that the city was better maintained than during oligarch years, despite smaller budget.

[Poopymonster]

Well...Russia's current leadership won't do it. And I'm not going into detail on how that might change.

Toxicological Autodefenstration.
Magic 8 ball says "Avoid poisoned windowsills."

[Cynep]

Wanna bet that Russia will keep Crimea and that corridor ? And even maybe Dombass as a bonus ? That is how reality works.

You, among several others here, are misreading the situation. There is a partial parallel between Empire of Japan attacking Pearl Harbor and Russian Federation attacking Ukraine: both have turned public opinion in USA from apathy to approval of what their leadership already wanted to do: destroy the attacker country. Ukraine is just one theater of the larger conflict, this won't be over until Russia crumbles and a USA-friendly regime is in power there. Therefore, Zelensky doesn't need to do what Pétain chose to do. Collaborators lost, freedom fighters won.

So to quote you twice:

Wanna bet that Russia will keep Crimea and that corridor ? And even maybe Dombass as a bonus ?

Wanna bet that Russia will follow the fate of USSR and dissolve from inside, within your lifetime?

[Shadowferal]

Wanna bet that Russia will follow the fate of USSR and dissolve from inside, within your lifetime?

If that would happen I should hope that its dissolution is tightly controlled.

[Specialka]

You, among several others here, are misreading the situation. There is a partial parallel between Empire of Japan attacking Pearl Harbor and Russian Federation attacking Ukraine: both have turned public opinion in USA from apathy to approval of what their leadership already wanted to do: destroy the attacker country. Ukraine is just one theater of the larger conflict, this won't be over until Russia crumbles and a USA-friendly regime is in power there. Therefore, Zelensky doesn't need to do what Pétain chose to do. Collaborators lost, freedom fighters won.

So to quote you twice:

Wanna bet that Russia will follow the fate of USSR and dissolve from inside, within your lifetime?

Sure, I take that bet. It won't happen.

[Poopymonster]

If that would happen I should hope that its dissolution is tightly controlled.

It would have to be. Outside groups wouldn't let it happen all random and shit. To quote one of our most overly caffeinated posters.

THEY HAVE NOOOOOOOOOKS!111!111!1Eleven!1!1one1!11!

[Flarelaine]

Wanna bet that Russia will follow the fate of USSR and dissolve from inside, within your lifetime?

That is a scary thought. It has a certain allure right now, with the promise of an aggressor no longer to be feared...

...but I - dare I say we - thought the same in the nineties.

[Shalcker]

This is not a recreation court in some primary school. People dies here (though we could say that for the primary school in a different way). Losing is humiliation for Russia since they tried to sell us the illusion that Russia STRONK. So they won't stop until they got what they want, even if they have to level most Ukrainian towns (and unfortunately, they have the means to do so). We could hope they run out of money before that but how about the damage they will do before that ?

Both will have to compromise. Ukraine will probably have to forfeit Crimea and maybe Dombass as a bonus. Russia will also have a corridor to supply water and such to Crimea. And Russia won't go after the "denazification" (though we all know it was BS from the start).

The course is sadly already set toward maximalist goals - humiliating both Ukraine and their Western backers which openly call for military solution as the only way forward, like Borell recently saying in Kiev that the conflict "will be won on the battlefield", not through diplomatic efforts.

Loud calls for civilians to evacuate Donbass ASAP from both sides suggest that it will likely be set as example of how "gloves off" looks like.

On another note, Russian MoD already reported destruction of Slovakian S300 recently gifted to Ukraine.

[zorkuus]

The cancer is back.