Russian invasion of Ukraine

[ati87]

No, political posturing is pretending this is a new or unique situation in order to get upset about it just because it’s happening where it is, and being done by who it is.

We didn’t care enough to intervene when they annexed Crimea from Ukraine or that they actively support the ongoing civil war around Luhansk. This isn’t something new happening. Frankly it’s weird we suddenly give a shit now.

Well this really isn't a argument you know. Just because NATO didn't get itself involved with a non member at that time doesn't really mean that it's free game for everything afterwards.

What kind of argument is this anyway?

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Again, Russia has built up similar amounts of troops along the Ukraine border multiple times over the past decade.

2014: Ukraine’s estimate of the number of Russian troops at the border is 88,000, a spokesman for the Ukrainian National Defense and Security Council, Yarema Dukh, told CNN on Thursday.

2017: And the RUSI analyst said while Lithuania and Ukraine have put the estimated figure at around 140,000 troops, the true number may well sit around the middle.

Saying that another country should attack pre-emptively is the worst.

Your kind of making my argument you know, did you even read your own articles?
Russia building up troops right after taking over Crimea would have been worrisome as stated in that specific article.
THe 2017 event wasn't that much better.

I mean dude, if this was done by countries of equal strength we would have had war by now. If North or South Korea did this crap the other side would have most likely responded by now.

[Skulltaker]

this joe biden character is so strange. Every day he vows sanctions and grave actions on Russia if they invade Ukraine for a while now, but it always ends with a reassurance no American troops will be partaking in any battles.

what does that even mean? They contradict one another.

What it means in Biden's head is that he has made a grand display of power on the international stage and the homefront at the same time. He thinks he seems strong to the world by babbling about Russia and aid to Ukraine, but at the same time tries to reassure the people of the US that he won't send another few hundred kids to their death in another armed conflict they have no business to die in.

It blew up in his face to some degree, though, because most of the world can see what he's doing.

[DarkAmbient]

one day left
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pm...u-s-state-dept
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-...arus/100829840
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...source=twitter

it's coming

It's your big day today. What time do you reckon it'll kick off?

[Skulltaker]

It's your big day today. What time do you reckon it'll kick off?

Being the grand Strategist that he is, Vladimir Putin will wait until the Ukrainian forces gather for their afternoon tea and toasted bread. He'll also mass attacks on their weekends. It worked well for Gaius Iulius against the British.

[zealo]

this joe biden character is so strange. Every day he vows sanctions and grave actions on Russia if they invade Ukraine for a while now, but it always ends with a reassurance no American troops will be partaking in any battles.

what does that even mean? They contradict one another.

That you can't imagine ways to sanction a country without literally sending troops in says more about you than it does Joe Biden.

[Crispin]

this joe biden character is so strange. Every day he vows sanctions and grave actions on Russia if they invade Ukraine for a while now, but it always ends with a reassurance no American troops will be partaking in any battles.

what does that even mean? They contradict one another.

No they don't. I suggest you google what sanctions mean.

[Jessicka]

Well this really isn't a argument you know. Just because NATO didn't get itself involved with a non member at that time doesn't really mean that it's free game for everything afterwards.

What kind of argument is this anyway?

UK and US pretending they're world police for the last 80 years (three centuries in fact for UK), doesn't actually make them world police and doesn't make NATO world police just because they're in it either.

On NATO specifically, many NATO countries actually depend on Russia economically and for energy, and don't actually want to fight a war with Russia. Therefore suggesting NATO, as a defensive alliance, can or would actually do something aggressively against Russia is nuts. Even Putin suggesting it is fucking nuts, but he knows that and he knows people like to think it - even a lot of people in NATO, especially in the US and UK like to think it and like to play that card, which then actually gives him some credence.

It's all kind of bullshit, sovereign states can and will do whatever the fuck they want, within the limits of their military capability or other influence, to deter others who don't like it from stopping them. That's just how it works, how the UK, US, France, or any other Imperialist country has tried to play at being world police forever. The US and UK are just used to their being the only ones to be able to do it for such a long time without much opposition.

[Vorkreist]

Except where US and its allies do it all the time around Korea and the South China Sea of course. There's some contention as to whether it was even enough for a 'full scale' invasion, you don't send a force where that contention exists if that's your actual intent. It was, and may yet be (the withdrawal could be just of support units that no longer need to be there), an incursion to annex/support/whatever the land already held in Ukraine by forces loyal to them. Never anything they expected NATO to get too excited about. I shouldn't need to explain to you the difference between the geopolitics of Israel which exists in a perpetual state of war, and Russia rattling sabres and testing the water on its border; and the west's reaction to that as a distraction from domestic issues.

Except those are always exercises for response against potential Chinese invasions. Your cringe tankoid speech is leaking.
The same whataboutisms to derail from the oppressive regimes wanting the invasion and annexation of sovereign countries. What about US soooy. US did booboo in the past so any deranged invasions from Russia or China should be fine. Think about US!
Russia has all the grounds to invade sovereign nations because NATO is not world police! Its about NATO not being world police instead of the deranged idea of invading Ukraine.

[Jessicka]

Except those are always exercises for response against potential Chinese invasions. Your cringe tankoid speech is leaking.
The same whataboutisms to derail from the oppressive regimes wanting the invasion and annexation of sovereign countries. What about US soooy. US did booboo in the past so any deranged invasions from Russia or China should be fine. Think about US!
Russia has all the grounds to invade sovereign nations because NATO is not world police! Its about NATO not being world police instead of the deranged idea of invading Ukraine.

It doesn’t make any invasion okay, but when the only people you actually need to convince are your own populace that point is pretty moot since how you do that is going to vary massively depending on nation and point of view.

And no NATO is not world police, nor is Russia. But both have interests beyond their borders that they will attempt to police. NATO just happens to have specific pretext requirements (an attack on any nation in NATO), while nation states can make up any old bullshit.

[Mekh]

It doesn’t make any invasion okay, but when the only people you actually need to convince are your own populace that point is pretty moot since how you do that is going to vary massively depending on nation and point of view.

And no NATO is not world police, nor is Russia. But both have interests beyond their borders that they will attempt to police. NATO just happens to have specific pretext requirements (an attack on any nation in NATO), while nation states can make up any old bullshit.

Is this a @Shalcker alt?

[wunksta]

Your kind of making my argument you know, did you even read your own articles?
Russia building up troops right after taking over Crimea would have been worrisome as stated in that specific article.
THe 2017 event wasn't that much better.

I mean dude, if this was done by countries of equal strength we would have had war by now. If North or South Korea did this crap the other side would have most likely responded by now.

I'm not making excuses for Russia, they have done a lot of horrible stuff. But while troop build up on the Ukrainian border is a shitty move it has happened several times, so it's not a 100% accurate indicator of invasion. It's Russia trying to get what they want without starting an actual war. They keep trying to intimidate NATO and Ukraine without suffering any losses. This game of chicken could end and Russia could invade to make a point, but I think it's unlikely as this would be a huge problem in the international eyes and Russia would likely end up worse for it. Ukraine pulling the trigger first would also be insane, even if they were equal strength. It's like someone getting in your face and threatening you to hit them, you can't give into that stuff as it just ends badly for everyone.

I'm more concerned with the ongoing covert operations Russia does that undermines nations, like the cyberwars, political cointelpro and supporting separatist movements etc.

[XDurionX]

this joe biden character is so strange. Every day he vows sanctions and grave actions on Russia if they invade Ukraine for a while now, but it always ends with a reassurance no American troops will be partaking in any battles.

what does that even mean? They contradict one another.

The chance that any NATO-soldier will set a foot into Ukraine are zero. Nada. Zilch.

You do know what sanctions are, don't you?

[DarkAmbient]

Jens Stoltenberg of NATO says Russia is actually increasing its troop numbers on the border, despite Russia's claims to the contrary https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1493878378344198149

No-one was shocked by this

[Orange Joe]

one day left
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pm...u-s-state-dept
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-...arus/100829840
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...source=twitter

it's coming

What time? I'm waiting...........

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Is this a @Shalcker alt?

No not even close.

[jonnysensible]

An attack would look like :

invasion day -14
= stockpile vast amounts of diesel and aviation fuel and ammo. set up field hostpitals.
= cyber attacks
= gps spoofing/jamming

invasion day -7
= submarine deployments
= increased electronic warfare on the front line + surveillance
= full domestic social media blackout (no more videos of Russian troops moving etc)

invasion day -24hours

= little green men
= drones everywhere

Vlad seems to be playing Schrödinger's war at the moment. Until some of these other conditions come into play I won't be too worried, but big cyber attacks are occurring atm.

[Kreuger]

Estonia with todays warning:

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/sta...31984238149651

Feb 16 (Reuters) - Russia is continuing to move troops to the Ukrainian border and is likely to launch a "limited" military attack against the country, the head of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service said on Wednesday.

The attack would include missile bombarding and the occupation of "key terrain" in Ukraine, Mikk Marran, Director General of Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service said.

[Biglog]

Be cautious of political sites trying to frame Russia attacking or pulling back as a victory for Putin and a failure for Biden. it's easy to spin propaganda. But reality is that Putin's goal was not having Ukraine in NATO. NATO this week has said their aspirations to join NATO are unchanged. NATO is making it clear Ukraine isn't disallowed from joining. Nothing Putin wanted has been achieved. Russia spent a lot of money moving forces around and has accomplished nothing so far. Ukraine is the only one that has benefitted from the Russian military theatrics. So anyone trying to frame it as somehow a failure by the West is ignoring the facts. It was an expensive bluff by Putin that so far has been a failure with no productive outcome for Russia at all, plain and simple.

In fact the West has left Putin in a position that you always want to put an adversary in, which is a lose-lose situation.

If Russia invades, it will solve the Ukraine problem but doesn't really alter NATOs threat to Russia at all, and actually increases it as NATO builds-up militarily in response. Russia will be hit with massive global sanctions, be outcast as a world leader, and incur a massive cost in money and lives in an urban war. NordStream2 will not be functional one way or another. NATO doesn't have missiles in Ukraine and had to plans to do so even if Ukraine joined NATO, so there is no net security gain to Russia whatsoever. It does make an ironclad case for NATO countries that Russia is an expansionist threat that will require NATO to upgrade, enhance, and grow it's military capabilities though.

On the other hand, if Russia doesn't invade, they wasted a bunch of money moving their army around and recklessly pushed the world to the closest brink of large-scale war in 50 years by trying to bully a smaller neighbor into subjectivity. And gained nothing.

I'd like to hear exactly what the failure by the West is, since reality doesn't seem to line up with that. All the US has said is that Russia has built-up massive forces on the border and they could invade anytime so US citizens should leave asap. It's not up to the US to predict what day Russia could decide to invade, and that's a very odd expectation that the US government should somehow be aware and inform the public in advance. It's not a weather prediction. Can you imagine German citizens in 1944 reading newspapers and angry because the government hasn't told them before it happened specifically what day the Allies will land on the beaches of Normandy? That's the strange line of thinking that a lot of people have descended into in 2022.

[Orange Joe]

this joe biden character is so strange. Every day he vows sanctions and grave actions on Russia if they invade Ukraine for a while now, but it always ends with a reassurance no American troops will be partaking in any battles.

what does that even mean? They contradict one another.

So what time zone we looking at? They better hurry as they only have about 6 more hours if we are going by est.

[JohnBrown1917]

I'm so surprised Russia did not invade today!

[Ihavewaffles]

The russian foreign ministry has called on western media outlets to publish a full list of dates on which Russia will invade Ukraine for the year ahead, so Russian diplomats can schedule their vacations accordingly.