Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Yunru]

I remember some people before being pretty confident that Russia's economy would start to collapse around May if the war kept up. Are we seeing any signs of that yet, or are they managing to prop it up a bit longer?

It is colapsing. Prices are double pretty much for everything now. Right now they are passing dolar limits and other bullshit laws to make Ruble artificialy worth at same price, but it wont last long.
Since they cant import or export anything, the money doesnt flow.
Once more people leave country with dolars and gold (or anything else worth), i can see a german situation happening.
Oil/gas ban is the final nail into a coffin. No money = no war.

[Gaidax]

This describes the second "non-fantasy way" as you called it recently: a ceasefire without peace. To begin with, Russia loses all land they conquered since 24 Feb, then negotiations happen, but until territorial integrity is restored, it's a ceasefire not peace, meaning sanctions will stay, skilled Russians will keep fleeing, only Soviet models of cars will be produced in Russia, and Zelensky will demand $600 billion in reparations in addition to Crimea during the negotiations, to end the "North North Korea" ceasefire status. Ceasefire condition is not peace condition.

I am not terribly sure why you thought that any sort of peace agreement will be coming any time soon.

The whatever talks that go on and that will eventually happens in a good faith will lead first and foremost to armistice and ceasefire with a shortlist of mutual demands.

Peace agreement is a whole other level that will take years to manifest if at all, that's when the serious money and borders back and forth will go on.

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I remember some people before being pretty confident that Russia's economy would start to collapse around May if the war kept up. Are we seeing any signs of that yet, or are they managing to prop it up a bit longer?

It is a process that will take years. People who thought that Russia will go belly up in 2 months are as much on crack as Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is.

It's the same thing as with Soviet Union - it took 2 decades of troubles to finally bring it to a point where it ate off West hands. This time it will be a lot faster, but it won't be tomorrow or this year.

[Iphie]

Now is NOT the time to dillydally Sweden.

[Bakis]

Now is NOT the time to dillydally Sweden.

Some fringe groups, like the Green Youth and above and others want a referendum on the matter. None of them really noteworthy though.
Only noteworthy one is Vänsterpartiet (the most leftist political party 8,1%) but if S decide in favor which all point towards then good luck with those 8.1%

Finland and Swedenes defenses is so extremely tight woven today that there arguably is only one outcome that Finland and Sweden join together.

Sweden is perfect as far as NATO is concerned given the landmass and position as a staging point (and deterrent) if an assault on the baltic states happens.
And if Finland joins NATO then Finlands prime responsibility will be towards NATO and it is now towards Sweden and vice versa.
Finland is in a sense forcing Swedens hand on NATO.
About time we fucking join. In regards to Sweden & Finland Putins era showed that there is no other solution offering the same degree of security.

And as far as integration both countries are more incorporated and fit for the way NATO operate than most of NATOs current members.
If any of them decide to join a formal invitation by NATO will not take more than at longest a fortnight.

[Secret Arcade]

The NATO opposition within the Social Democrats was not really a secret, but many members seem to have changed their stance and it will basically be down to the party board to decide. The timeline has changed at least and the meeting they were supposed to have on the 24th has been moved to the 15th. That aligns well with both Finland's decision and with a NATO meeting so they may already have made up their minds.

There still needs to be a vote in parliament though, and they haven't even reached consensus on whether simple majority is enough or if 75% is required.

[Twdft]

I'm asking native German speakers to clarify something.

As you may remember, some time ago Polish and Baltic leaders visited Kyiv, and German President, known for past ties to Putin, was told he wasn't welcome. Recently German Chancellor Scholz said he won't visit Ukraine if they don't want to see the President, and for that Ukrainian ambassador in Germany called Scholz some sort of sausage, it made Russian news as "ambassador insults Scholz". Can someone explain nuance, what exactly was said? What consequences can we expect, or it was nothing?

"offended liver sausage"
A rather mild insult, actually I wouldn't even call it an insult but more like a colorful choice of words.

https://www.dict.cc/?s=Beleidigte+Leberwurst

[Bakis]

"offended liver sausage"
A rather mild insult, actually I wouldn't even call it an insult but more like a colorful choice of words.

https://www.dict.cc/?s=Beleidigte+Leberwurst

That mess is all weird. Ukraine is in no position to diss parts of the German leadership regardless the presidents previóus shortcumings .
It will blow over, it is both parties interests which make it even more annoying that it happened in the first place.

[Skulltaker]

I'm asking native German speakers to clarify something.

As you may remember, some time ago Polish and Baltic leaders visited Kyiv, and German President, known for past ties to Putin, was told he wasn't welcome. Recently German Chancellor Scholz said he won't visit Ukraine if they don't want to see the President, and for that Ukrainian ambassador in Germany called Scholz some sort of sausage, it made Russian news as "ambassador insults Scholz". Can someone explain nuance, what exactly was said? What consequences can we expect, or it was nothing?

Scholz is a spineless bland piece of shit pushover. I wouldn't entrust him or any other member of his cabinet with as much as a burnt matchstick.

That being said, the Ukrainian ambassador is an annoying little brat that's overstepping, and if we had any sort of leadership with either guts or any skill here in Germany they'd tell him to mind his manners and his position.

[Deus Mortis]

Today in my daily posting of shit on fire in Russia, I bring you a fire blazing through Dzerzhinsky industrial zone.


https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarR...e_dzerzhinsky/

[zealo]

The NATO opposition within the Social Democrats was not really a secret, but many members seem to have changed their stance and it will basically be down to the party board to decide. The timeline has changed at least and the meeting they were supposed to have on the 24th has been moved to the 15th. That aligns well with both Finland's decision and with a NATO meeting so they may already have made up their minds.

There still needs to be a vote in parliament though, and they haven't even reached consensus on whether simple majority is enough or if 75% is required.

It's looking more and more like the only reason it's taking even this time is because S needs to figure out how to make it happen in a manner that involves their party membership at least somewhat.

The social democrats does not want NATO to become an election issue, cause that might very well hand the opposition the next election in September with the way opinion polling is looking.

[PhaelixWW]

I think I saw a video claiming that part of the timing for the war is explained by the fact that Ukraine's birth rate was actually turning around into positive so Putin may have felt he has to act.

Uh... I don't think so. It would appear that Ukraine is actually declining faster than Russia.






That whole area of Eastern Europe and Russia is declining.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Uh... I don't think so. It would appear that Ukraine is actually declining faster than Russia.






That whole area of Eastern Europe and Russia is declining.

And the main reason Western Europe is not declining as fast is that we're draining the youth of Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa...

[PhaelixWW]

And the main reason Western Europe is not declining as fast is that we're draining the youth of Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa...

Well, that population growth map for the world only included births/deaths, not migration. Click on the link for the one that includes migration right below.

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By the by, what time is it in Moscow right now?

Everyone's favorite Russian shill is back from vacation as of this morning, so I expect the page count ITT will shoot ahead again soon.

[Iphie]

well, that population growth map for the world only included births/deaths, not migration. Click on the link for the one that includes migration right below.

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by the by, what time is it in moscow right now?

Everyone's favorite russian shill is back from vacation as of this morning, so i expect the page count itt will shoot ahead again soon.

21:20 (9:20 pm)

[Makabreska]

Everyone's favorite Russian shill is back from vacation as of this morning, so I expect the page count ITT will shoot ahead again soon.

Oh shit, can't wait! Guy keeps refreshing the thread daily, he defo comes prepared with another set of crap to spew.

More and more rumours about Ukrainian prisoners being "trained" to "perform" during 9th parade. That would be such a ridiculously psycho and not even a soviet move, but ancient times one. What's next? Gladiators fight with some lions feeding in the meantime?

[zealo]

Well, that population growth map for the world only included births/deaths, not migration. Click on the link for the one that includes migration right below.

- - - Updated - - -

By the by, what time is it in Moscow right now?

Everyone's favorite Russian shill is back from vacation as of this morning, so I expect the page count ITT will shoot ahead again soon.

He were browsing the board just a a few minutes ago as we speak, it could happen any moment now.

[Voidism]

It's looking more and more like the only reason it's taking even this time is because S needs to figure out how to make it happen in a manner that involves their party membership at least somewhat.

The social democrats does not want NATO to become an election issue, cause that might very well hand the opposition the next election in September with the way opinion polling is looking.

Also think that they might want people to pressure them so they can point to the people. "The people demanded it!"

[Polyxo]

We could have just looked at their military budget I suppose, which is what, 1/10 of what the US spends?

Yeah, but it's nowhere near 1/10th of the performance grade.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Well, that population growth map for the world only included births/deaths, not migration. Click on the link for the one that includes migration right below.

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By the by, what time is it in Moscow right now?

Everyone's favorite Russian shill is back from vacation as of this morning, so I expect the page count ITT will shoot ahead again soon.

Young immigrants tend to have more children than natives, especially compared to the very large cohorts of elderly natives.

It is well documented that my country and Germany, which for a while were precursors in negative natural growth, got a huge boost following the Subprime and Eurozone crisis as they attracted scores of young professionals away from the collapsing economies of Southern Europe, resulting in a huge influx of population of prime child rearing age finding good economic prospects.

Our population was about 7.5M at the time, and next year we'll be nearing 9M. That was over about a decade and a half. Now in the course of two months we've received about 50k Ukrainians, mostly women and children...

[Mayhem]

Young immigrants tend to have more children than natives, especially compared to the very large cohorts of elderly natives.

It is well documented that my country and Germany, which for a while were precursors in negative natural growth, got a huge boost following the Subprime and Eurozone crisis as they attracted scores of young professionals away from the collapsing economies of Southern Europe, resulting in a huge influx of population of prime child rearing age finding good economic prospects.

Did they all become swiss citizens? Because as far as I can tell, Switzerland doesn't have birthright citizenship, Germany on the other hand does and they are in the negative so, somehow I doubt your explanation.