Prediction: WoW Down to 5.7 Million Subs

[Tierbook]

Well if we look at past Sub trends we see this


It should be noted that the largest drop in subs is in the quarter before the new expansion, we have at least 1 more quarter to go after the February 6th number drop so ya......

[Advo]

This latest announcement won't be a significant drop, perhaps to 7 million or so.

The next quarter, though, is going to be a like a bomb exploding. I can easily see a 2 million sub loss, which will likely mean that warlords will be launched before its 100% finished.

[Osmeric]

The next quarter, though, is going to be a like a bomb exploding. I can easily see a 2 million sub loss, which will likely mean that warlords will be launched before its 100% finished.

Especially with the large ban wave that has apparently just gone out.

[Ronduwil]

I no longer know anyone that plays in real life (from about 30) and 1 person left in my guild from 200.

That sucks, but this could be more of a demographic shift problem than a Blizzard problem. When WoW released I refused to play, even though many of my younger friends were playing. Why? Because I had two very young children who I knew were going to need me to be available pretty much from the time I got home until the time I left for work the next day. Four years later they were much more independent and I finally felt like I was able to pick up the game. Now the situation is quite the opposite. My younger friends who formerly played WoW are now busy starting families of their own and have wisely prioritized that over their gaming habit. Now I'm the guy updating them on my latest WoW experiences while they shake their heads wondering where all their time went. Some of those people will possibly pick up the game again, but I suspect many won't. That's OK.

As for your realm being dead, if your'e playing alliance on a 5:95 server I see why you would think that, but I think you may be surprised if you were to roll a horde character on that realm. Server imbalance isn't something that Blizzard can or should fix. Many players like server imbalance, and that's why they gravitate to unbalanced servers. If Blizzard were to forcibly attempt to correct that players would be pissed, and the problem would eventually return as players found yet another server on which to turn slightly skewed balance into a high imbalance.

They could give game back to the real fans. Many would come back then. Subs wouldn't stop until after 2 years. I think they have gone for this. I hope.

Sorry, but my experience says otherwise. Every former "real fan" that I've spoken to has cited time as the #1 reason they don't play. It has nothing to do with the game. You could see the temptation in their eyes when Blizzard had the $15 for everything up to MoP deal going in December, but ultimately they didn't bite. Why? Time. Plus, "give game back to the real fans" is so nebulous a concept that I have no idea what that even means.

[greysaber]

i'm going to say it'll be a marginal increase. i'm seeing more and more people logging in that i haven't seen in a while.

[Airwaves]

Wouldn't be surprised. People aren't going to stick around while there is no new content like they have in the past.

[Themerlin]

This is my prediction for the next conference call which is just a few weeks away. I know anecdotal evidence is anecdotal, but my bro's high pop servers that he plays on never have que times anymore. Two of the realms he plays on have lowered to medium pop, and several of his guild mates have stopped playing.

I have several other friends who have stopped playing for various reasons. I don't think its just the SOO burnout, i think its legitimately people getting sick of this game, or just plain bored.

What is your prediction?

I predict that around 6 million subs will be lost, but then around 8 million Daleks will replace them, ...finally some reliable players.

[Deleted]

with the new character models WoW will stabilize at around 9.000.000 subs

[Pann]

Especially with the large ban wave that has apparently just gone out.

The ban wave seems like a smart move on Blizzard's behalf, it allows a bit of a PR smokescreen if the losses are very high and, no doubt, many of those that were banned will be back with their instant level 90s from pre-ordering WOD which is, also, a nice little boost in revenue when they buy starter WOW again.

[Tierbook]

I predict that around 6 million subs will be lost, but then around 8 million Daleks will replace them, ...finally some reliable players.

Are you crazy? That would lead to a way more PvP focused game as they only wish to exterminate peoples

- - - Updated - - -

with the new character models WoW will stabilize at around 9.000.000 subs

I sincerely doubt over a million people will rejoin the game for better character models...

[Pann]

I think the sub numbers went up personally, seems like more realms are full and queue times have been getting longer recently.

Who knows

Queue times going up on high population realms are most likely due to players from low pop realms using the lull in content between now and WOD to level a new character now they can transfer heirlooms.

[Celista]

This is my prediction for the next conference call which is just a few weeks away. I know anecdotal evidence is anecdotal, but my bro's high pop servers that he plays on never have que times anymore.

I was in a 1200 person queue yesterday for Area 52 (US).

[Themerlin]

Are you crazy? That would lead to a way more PvP focused game as they only wish to exterminate peoples

We need that attitude in Alliance, I would gladly welcome all Daleks willing to fight for the cause.

I sincerely doubt over a million people will rejoin the game for better character models...

You would be surprised...

[Ryuda]

Other. I know more players who skipped all of Mop and are leveling and gearing a toon now than bitching people leaving. A lot of people are real excited for mop. I think the burn out will be offset by returning players for once. Im usually a downer but this time with flex more are returning than leaving.

I agree, I'm seeing people in my guild/on my server that I haven't seen online since end of Wrath, early Cata period...predict basically stable maybe, 250k flex or so. And I know more planing to return once pre-order comes out to get the free 90 boost.

[Theendgamelv3]

Interesting, because the high pop server I play on has had queue times for the first time in months this week.

2 servers I have toons on had queues to get in as well. I don't know else where, but Illidan seems to be doing better than fine in terms of server pop. I don't think the loss is huge. Then again we are in that time between expansions so there could be a big loss as well.

[Dakara]

I honestly don't care how many they lose.

Once they get down to the "will never quit, no matter what" fanbase, the game will stabilize. And yes, such a fanbase exists, and has existed in every successful MMO to date. Heck, people still loyally play Diablo 2.

I'm not sure how many players that will be, but could be in the order of 1-2 million. Regardless, once all the crybabies are gone, the game will stabilize. I'm not pining for the days of Classic/TBC, but I don't enjoy this model of pushing out content more and more frequently while bloating the game with useless fillers (like pet battles and farming).

[Sharuko]

I predicted 500k-600k loss last time and I was completely wrong. But this time I don't think they will lose too much maybe 100k-200k. Mainly because they were on Conan and the publicity they got from the NSA probably gained them quite a few amount of new subs. And the holiday sales where WoW was less than $10 bucks also helped.

[ro9ue]

5.7 I think is a bit low. Over 6 sounds more reasonable.

[shadowmouse]

Blizz will start a campaign that will raise subs 1.5 million by encouraging people to alter their sig to read:

Subscribe to WoW and piss in Jaylock's Cheerios.

[dacoolist]

This is my prediction for the next conference call which is just a few weeks away. I know anecdotal evidence is anecdotal, but my bro's high pop servers that he plays on never have que times anymore. Two of the realms he plays on have lowered to medium pop, and several of his guild mates have stopped playing.

I have several other friends who have stopped playing for various reasons. I don't think its just the SOO burnout, i think its legitimately people getting sick of this game, or just plain bored.

What is your prediction?

Jaylock our signature is the greatest.