Originally Posted by
Arikan
To start with let’s give Trump the benefit of the doubt and the best possible starting position. First we’ll assume he wins the general election (obviously). Second we’ll assume that between now and taking office he has the time to actually sit down and consult with engineers and settles on a consistent size of the wall, which currently varies anywhere from 35 to 80 feet tall and various widths. Third we’ll assume that he then settles on a consistent number for a cost estimate of the project; Trump’s estimates vary between 4-15 billion and non-Trump estimates vary between 10-70 billion. The final number he produces is irrelevant to this discussion, we just need to assume he produces a consistent figure. Fourth we’ll even assume that Mexico is willing to write the United States a check, which is a huge assumption but remember we’re putting Trump in the best possible position to build his wall.
So once he’s been sworn in, what happens? Serious planning needs to begin. Where along the border will the wall go? Who will be in charge of building it? What infrastructure (roads to the location etc) needs to be built first to accommodate construction? Who will be supplying the raw materials (a project of this size will require a fair percentage of the annual national production of things like cement so decisions will have to be made to either A) fund and source production of more or B) determine what other national projects like bridge and road construction and maintenance get cut). All of this will need to be hashed out, and even though Trump has told us over and over how smart he is and that he has all the best words working through these things is going to take time. Even if he brings in teams of his own people, it’s still a process and will have to operate as the massive bureaucratic project it is. The planning for construction projects on this scale never moves quickly even when it’s a single private company, which this won’t be. We’re looking at months, minimum, and that’s incredibly optimistic.
Once you’ve got your proposal hashed out and have started planning in earnest Trump is going to need approval. Assuming he gets it, it will still take time. Congressional approval, when there are many in Congress who will push back hard against it. Approval to use the land not directly controlled by the federal government, or jumping through the hoops required to force acquisition of that land (sure to go over well). Clearing environmental hurdles. And so on. Even if Trump is able to railroad all of the planning and approval through, the most absurdly optimistic estimate of being able to break ground is about a year after Trump takes office. Two years would be a much more reasonable estimate, especially given how strong opposition is to the project, and could very well take much longer. But again we’re giving Trump the benefit of the doubt and putting him in the best possible position, so we’ll say a year and hope like hell no major crisis comes up that diverts attention and resources. The Affordable Care Act took longer than a year for Obama to shove through and that required far fewer peripherals than the wall (funding from another national government, supply chain, including almost every other government agency, etc.) and its very likely the wall will meet even stronger resistance internally before approval.
We’re also going to need funding. “But wait,” you say, “Mexico will pay! You even said at the beginning that we’re assuming Mexico writes a check!” Sure. Its unlikely that Mexico will fund the wall but we’re going with the best possible scenario. That still has limits. First Trump is going to have to provide the Mexican government a number, and that will have to be done before construction begins. Approval of his project isn’t going to happen unless the funding he’s promised is in place and he’s not very well going to be able to get elected then turn around and say, “Actually we’re paying for the wall.” and expect it to still happen, or at the very least without adding another year onto the planning timeline to secure funding that he promised would not need to be provided. So Mexico is going to get a number before the project starts. Trump can very well promise that the wall will be built ahead of schedule and under budget, but even with the benefit of the doubt on a project of this scale delays are inevitable. They’re simply going to happen.
So what happens if the project goes over budget? We can’t keep crawling back to the Mexican government with our hand out needing more money, and we also can’t keep trying to extort or strongarm them into paying, there’s a runway on how long those sorts of things can be effective. Its not like Mexico is going to write a blank check, no government would agree to that. Even if the project stays at or under budget, we’re still going to need funding. Once the wall is built, its built. Its there. It needs to be staffed and maintained, year after year after year. We’re going to be paying for that, and funding for that will likely need to be in place as part of the overall approval process. “Mexico will pay!” No they won’t. Even in the most optimistic scenario for Trump, no national government is going to agree to fund a project of this scope for another country into perpetuity. “We’ll pay for construction”, a dubious assumption at best, is not the same as “We will pay all the costs associated forever and ever.” That won’t be happening.
Now construction has started. So how long will that take? Well, the fence authorized by the Secure Fence Act in 2006 still isn’t complete and has become a bureaucratic quagmire and money sink, and that’s just a fence. Trump’s mighty wall is a much more gargantuan undertaking. Building it will take longer than putting up a fence. First there are very real limits on how much can be done in a year, from production of required raw materials to building infrastructure to accommodate construction (everything from making roads in remote areas to constructing temporary housing and utilities for work crews). Also remember that all the manpower and resources going into the wall will be manpower and resources that won’t go elsewhere, so you’re capped there as well. Pouring more into the wall at the expense of crucial highway maintenance, for example, is not going to happen.
Assuming construction goes smoothly and assuming costs don’t start running over and assuming no natural disaster or national crisis diverts attention/resources and assuming anything completed is not vandalized and requires repair/rebuilding, five years is pretty optimistic (the amount of time it took to complete the exterior of the Burj Khalifa from the date of breaking ground). And that’s with a very generous assumption that groundbreaking can begin one year after Trump takes office. So that’s six years, meaning two years into Trump’s second term, so now we also have to assume that he will win re-election or that whomever comes in after will continue the wall (extremely unlikely, as if he is voted out it will be a Democrat replacing him). And remember this is with the rosiest of goggles on and being aggressively over-optimistic in all of our assumptions.
This perfect scenario still requires a Trump second term to even consider the wall’s completion. A more grounded scenario, or any minor hiccup in this picture-perfect Trump Wall Program, starts to stretch that timeline out. Imagine we’re two years in and we still haven’t broken ground. Imagine Mexico refuses to pay and Trump’s detailed plan to extort them into doing so doesn’t work or, even if it does, Mexico is slow to pay and only gives money in small increments (a very plausible scenario presuming we can pry any money from them at all) dragging out the whole process. Imagine weather and construction delays creeping up over this multi-year project. Imagine some protestors sabotaging construction equipment, however you feel about that and whatever happens to the protestors its still a delay for the sake of our argument. Imagine the approval process drags on too long and mid-term elections happen and bring in a bunch of Democrats. Given a simple fence is unfinished after 10 years, the only unreasonable assumptions are the ones I used to give Trump the best possible footing for his wall.
And so on and so on. It will only take a handful of these realistic possibilities (as in, pretty much any scenario other than the magical perfect one presented) to drag this out for the entirety of Trump’s first term, which will then see him fighting for re-election on the basis of actually being able to begin what he promised over and over and over all throughout his first campaign, with possibly some construction beginning the last year of his presidency. Which means that even if he manages to scrape up another win the project will still likely go longer than his two terms, which means it won’t be finished before he’s out, which means our best-case scenario is a partially-completed, expensive slab of concrete slowly deteriorating along our southern border as a monument to national embarrassment and not doing a whole heck of a lot to Make America Great Again.
TL/DR:
Logistics. Mexico. Time. Hoops to jump through.
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