SpaceX did it

[Deleted]

His first company, PayPal, is worth $52 Billion.

His second company, Tesla, approached a $700 Billion dollar market valuation last year: before the short sellers attacked. The reason it did so is because the market generally believes it may end up replacing large segments of the auto industry if the rest of the industry refuses to react (which may also be who is now short-selling it so hard). Small though they are at the moment, even a conservative estimate of their growth indicates they may be about the size of Apple in 10 years: and that's assuming they don't consume the entire auto industry.

SpaceX is still private, but Google spent $900 Million for 7.5% of the company, giving it a rough valuation circa about a year ago of $12 Billion - they've made historic progress in the last year though: they're likely worth significantly more now.

So yea - by the time Elon Musk is old and grey, at this rate - he'll have all the monies. And a large swimming pool full of coins so he can Scrooge McDuck into them, built into his palatial pleasure-craft, in scenic low orbit over Venus.

I didnt know he was behind PayPal for example you see.

[Reeve]

All of his companies have been successively some of the most successful companies in the last 15 years - so essentially money is not an issue because he makes it faster than he can spend it - and the way he spends money is to repeatedly go 'All In' on his next big idea.

Paypal and SpaceX have been successful. Tesla and Solar City still haven't turned a profit.

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His first company, PayPal, is worth $52 Billion.

His second company, Tesla, approached a $700 Billion dollar market valuation last year: before the short sellers attacked. The reason it did so is because the market generally believes it may end up replacing large segments of the auto industry if the rest of the industry refuses to react (which may also be who is now short-selling it so hard). Small though they are at the moment, even a conservative estimate of their growth indicates they may be about the size of Apple in 10 years: and that's assuming they don't consume the entire auto industry.

Even if he takes over the ENTIRE auto industry in the US, $700 billion is wildly overinflated. GM and Ford together don't even reach $100 billion. Even adding Fiat/Chrysler in there, you barely break $100 billion.

Toyota is about $150 billion, Honda is $49 billion, Hyundai is $39 billion, Kia is $19 billion, VW is $58 billion, BMW is $48 billion, Daimler (Mercedes) is $65 billion, Mazda is $8.4 billion.

I'm sure there are a few I'm missing, but it would be an unbelievably Herculean feat to take over the business of ALL of those companies, and the companies in question would have to decide not to change their business models AT ALL. And you still only add up to about $536 billion. $700 billion was completely ridiculous. Even at current market prices, it's a bit silly. Even if Tesla ramps up to their promised 150k deliveries per year by 2020, that's completely dwarfed by GM's sales in 2015 of more than 17.5 million units. Yet Tesla is currently valuated at $33 billion, within spitting distance of GM's $46 billion.

Apple did what it did for a few reasons:

1) It was entering a market that essentially didn't exist yet. Blackberries were around, but only used by businesspeople for the most part, and had nowhere near the capabilities of a touchscreen smartphone.
2) Due to both the newness of the product category and Apple's market position as a highly innovative premium brand, they could get massive profit margins on each unit sold.

Tesla isn't making massive profits on each car. If anything, they're taking a loss on each unit sold right now. I have high hopes for Tesla, and think Musk is REALLY good for the world, but Tesla is not going to become Apple.

[Yvaelle]

Paypal and SpaceX have been successful. Tesla and Solar City still haven't turned a profit.

I don't think either were expected to profit yet though, Tesla's only just now beginning to make cash cow vehicles - up until now it's been about proving concept, improving tech, and building production capacity. I have no doubt Solar will take off soon too, and wouldn't be surprised to find it isn't intended to profit yet either. It's important to view all his companies as tech startups - big and visible as they are - they don't begin making money until after years of development.

It's also important to view them from the perspective of who is running them - Musk is an 'all in' kind of guy - and none of these are his only company: so he doesn't need any of them to be individually profitable - he has a portfolio of other companies supporting them. Contrary to someone running a single company, where they need to make it profitable to retain investors - Musk can pour any revenue he makes into further investment and run profitless companies: that instead grow extremely quickly (and yet investors won't panic). So it's a pretty unique position he's in - compared to even companies like Amazon or Apple (where any other companies they possess are trivial by comparison - Musk has a diverse portfolio).

Even if he takes over the ENTIRE auto industry in the US, $700 billion is wildly overinflated. GM and Ford together don't even reach $100 billion.

Didn't mean to imply it was worth $700B, I leapt to explaining why it approached such an incredible number.

[Reeve]

I don't think either were expected to profit yet though, Tesla's only just now beginning to make cash cow vehicles - up until now it's been about proving concept, improving tech, and building production capacity. I have no doubt Solar will take off soon too, and wouldn't be surprised to find it isn't intended to profit yet either. It's important to view all his companies as tech startups - big and visible as they are - they don't begin making money until after years of development.

It's also important to view them from the perspective of who is running them - Musk is an 'all in' kind of guy - and none of these are his only company: so he doesn't need any of them to be individually profitable - he has a portfolio of other companies supporting them. Contrary to someone running a single company, where they need to make it profitable to retain investors - Musk can pour any revenue he makes into further investment and run profitless companies: that instead grow extremely quickly (and yet investors won't panic). So it's a pretty unique position he's in - compared to even companies like Amazon or Apple (where any other companies they possess are trivial by comparison - Musk has a diverse portfolio).



Didn't mean to imply it was worth $700B, I leapt to explaining why it approached such an incredible number.

Gotcha, I still disagree with the reasoning that brought it up towards that number. I expanded on why above.

As for the diversified portfolio of companies, that's basically what Alphabet is doing. Which is cool. It means we get to see lots of really good ideas that may not be immediately profitable. It lets Alphabet push forward things like driverless cars.

[Yvaelle]

Gotcha, I still disagree with the reasoning that brought it up towards that number. I expanded on why above.

As for the diversified portfolio of companies, that's basically what Alphabet is doing. Which is cool. It means we get to see lots of really good ideas that may not be immediately profitable. It lets Alphabet push forward things like driverless cars.

Agreed - and you're right about the size of the car industry (and that it's unrealistic to consume it all), but we missed that Tesla is not just about cars - it's really about batteries. Tesla's are sexy batteries with wheels - and that's great for getting people excited about coppertops: but if Tesla really goes big, it'll be by changing the game on batteries. The Gigafactory already does that, if only through sheer economy of scale and lean production methods - but if their research wing pans out, that Tesla logo will be inside everything.

[Reeve]

Agreed - and you're right about the size of the car industry (and that it's unrealistic to consume it all), but we missed that Tesla is not just about cars - it's really about batteries. Tesla's are sexy batteries with wheels - and that's great for getting people excited about coppertops: but if Tesla really goes big, it'll be by changing the game on batteries. The Gigafactory already does that, if only through sheer economy of scale and lean production methods - but if their research wing pans out, that Tesla logo will be inside everything.

Yeah, I mean that's a real possibility, indeed. I'll be curious to see what ends up happening.

Though if Musk gives in to his penchant for giving away his patents, manufacturing of the high tech batteries in question may move to China.

[Afrospinach]

Paypal and SpaceX have been successful. Tesla and Solar City still haven't turned a profit.

Yeah, I do not think Musk is flush with cash at all, at least not like Yvaelle is suggesting ie able to self finance everything that comes to mind. Spacex nearly went under. He also appears to be able to attract investment and that is the real key.

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/...-boat-landing/

http://www.davemanuel.com/net-worth/elon-musk/ - has a bit more detail about stuff than say, wikipedia.

[Reeve]

Yeah, I do not think Musk is flush with cash at all, at least not like Yvaelle is suggesting ie able to self finance everything that comes to mind. Spacex nearly went under. He also appears to be able to attract investment and that is the real key.

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/...-boat-landing/

http://www.davemanuel.com/net-worth/elon-musk/ - has a bit more detail about stuff than say, wikipedia.

$11.7 billion in net worth is pretty freaking massive. Bill Gates only has $81 billion. But I'm sure that's mostly in equity in his companies.

[Yvaelle]

Yeah, I do not think Musk is flush with cash at all, at least not like Yvaelle is suggesting ie able to self finance everything that comes to mind. Spacex nearly went under. He also appears to be able to attract investment and that is the real key.

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/...-boat-landing/

http://www.davemanuel.com/net-worth/elon-musk/ - has a bit more detail about stuff than say, wikipedia.

I didn't say that all that money is his Afro - only that the companies he's built have all done extremely well: when Tesla for example gets enormous market valuations - that doesn't mean it all belongs to Musk - only that people believe that much in him. That's why he gets investors so easily - because people the world over are throwing money at him as fast as he can take it.

[Reeve]

I didn't say that all that money is his Afro - only that the companies he's built have all done extremely well: when Tesla for example gets enormous market valuations - that doesn't mean it all belongs to Musk - only that people believe that much in him. That's why he gets investors so easily - because people the world over are throwing money at him as fast as he can take it.

Also important to note that a lot of the people throwing money at him are probably doing it as much or more because they believe in his vision than because they think it'll make them tons of money.

[Yvaelle]

Also important to note that a lot of the people throwing money at him are probably doing it as much or more because they believe in his vision than because they think it'll make them tons of money.

It's kind of both right? If everyone throws their money at someones vision, they can make it reality - so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Reeve]

So they just did it again, only this time the payload was going to Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit, and the rocket had to burn triple the energy to slow down. Still on an ocean barge, this time the landing was in the dark.

Also, last week Musk announced that his rockets have higher thrust capabilities than he had previously accounted for. As they use the rockets more, I guess they understand the capabilities better and can reduce the safety margin.

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/2...-first-thought

According to that article, the Falcon 9 had previously enviously been rated for 15 tons to LEO, and is now rated for 25.1 tons. For GTO, it's 5.3 tons and 9.15 tons respectively. That's a fucking massive increase, and Musk claims that it has nothing to do with hardware improvements.

If the Falcon Heavy makes similar gains after the first several flights, it'll put it on the same footing as the SLS block 1

@Skroe thoughts?

[Deleted]

Shalcker: Here is somthing for you. Remember then we did have a discussion at the beging of the year about the the Proton rocket, and you predicted a brilliant future for Proton.

http://spacenews.com/russian-governm...ash-and-loans/
"Khrunichev’s ability to generate substantial hard-currency revenue from commercial Proton launches was apparently insufficient to assure the company’s financial stability." Apparently the price was too low, and the Russian govermet have to save the company, and it will only get worse then SpaceX take more and more market shares.

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Anyone heard anything about if the landed stage are "airworthy" spaceworthy? its very silent from SpaceX, they start to get a big colection of used stage, and that might point that somthing is wrong....

[Ripster42]

Shalcker: Here is somthing for you. Remember then we did have a discussion at the beging of the year about the the Proton rocket, and you predicted a brilliant future for Proton.

http://spacenews.com/russian-governm...ash-and-loans/
"Khrunichev’s ability to generate substantial hard-currency revenue from commercial Proton launches was apparently insufficient to assure the company’s financial stability." Apparently the price was too low, and the Russian govermet have to save the company, and it will only get worse then SpaceX take more and more market shares.

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Anyone heard anything about if the landed stage are "airworthy" spaceworthy? its very silent from SpaceX, they start to get a big colection of used stage, and that might point that somthing is wrong....

Edit: Looks like the second is still mid-refurbishment.

The first was refired (that landed on land) and was certified flight worthy but is being kept in a museum. No idea on the 2nd, but there has been no chance of this 3rd to be refurbished yet.

[Shalcker]

Shalcker: Here is somthing for you. Remember then we did have a discussion at the beging of the year about the the Proton rocket, and you predicted a brilliant future for Proton.

http://spacenews.com/russian-governm...ash-and-loans/
"Khrunichev’s ability to generate substantial hard-currency revenue from commercial Proton launches was apparently insufficient to assure the company’s financial stability." Apparently the price was too low, and the Russian government have to save the company, and it will only get worse then SpaceX take more and more market shares.

Well, loans and delays in paying contractors are fairly common in Russia. They took loans to keep production and development going right there and then rather wait for government help (which sometimes takes years to materialize, like in this case). Some of it might have been wasted one way or another too.

If they are aiming at reducing debt load (or moving it to government banks where it can be written down later) then they are obviously aiming at increasing overall profitability.

This all has little to do with SpaceX taking their market share; it all depends on launch pricing, where Proton still seems to have slight lead.

[ringpriest]

Agreed - and you're right about the size of the car industry (and that it's unrealistic to consume it all), but we missed that Tesla is not just about cars - it's really about batteries. Tesla's are sexy batteries with wheels - and that's great for getting people excited about coppertops: but if Tesla really goes big, it'll be by changing the game on batteries. The Gigafactory already does that, if only through sheer economy of scale and lean production methods - but if their research wing pans out, that Tesla logo will be inside everything.

Imagine what happens once Musk get's his hands on these: "instead of lithium, researchers at UC Irvine have used gold nanowires to store electricity, and have found that their system is able to far outlast traditional lithium battery construction. The Irvine team's system cycled through 200,000 recharges without significant corrosion or decline."

[docterfreeze]

I'm surprised it didn't tip over, it looks really windy there.

[Ripster42]

I'm surprised it didn't tip over, it looks really windy there.

Makes you wonder if the barge compensated for the wind in its angle too with something that tall.

[Nerraw]

Edit: Looks like the second is still mid-refurbishment.

The first was refired (that landed on land) and was certified flight worthy but is being kept in a museum. No idea on the 2nd, but there has been no chance of this 3rd to be refurbished yet.

The 2nd one will likely be used on a flight in June or July.

[Ripster42]

The 2nd one will likely be used on a flight in June or July.

So what you're saying is that's the one we should really get excited over?