Exclusive: Trump surges in support, almost even with Clinton in national U.S. poll

[Deleted]

A person can only hear others say violent things about "niggers" and "faggots" (and other groups, and other terms to refer to those previous groups) before they start to wonder why the fuck people would want to hurt entire groups of people they've never even met.

At least sane people.

I just assume the kids of these people don't question mommy and daddy and that's how the ideology gets passed on.

WTF? Have no clue at all as to why you posted what you did or how it is any way relevant to what I posted.

BTW - I have never heard Trump use the words you have in posted in quotes. In fact, YOU are the only one using those words. I certainly didn't.

I sincerely hope Trump is elected for no other reason than I know it will piss you off to no ends.

[Blobfish]

Indians in New Delhi are Praying for a Donald Trump win
They will make him a Wonderful Curry when he visits India

[Cthulhu 2020]

How can you continue to make this argument? He's been likened to Hitler, Satan, and Voldemort on Twitter already and he ignores it. Ironically, the only people he pokes at on Twitter are people who are themselves easily goaded.

Because he's promised 25,000 troops on the ground in the middle east, and as I said, has an ego that's more easily bruised than an over ripe peach. I have enough respect for our troops not to put them at the will of a lunatic.

[breadisfunny]

Indians in New Delhi are Praying for a Donald Trump win
They will make him a Wonderful Curry when he visits India

your making me hungry.

[Reeve]

this was in reference to the poll earlier that had trump leading compared to every other had hillary 5+, the same poll that had Romney winning in a landslide.

edit: the rasmussan from late april specifically.

Note it's important to recognize that there's a difference between Rasmussen and Rasmussen Reports. Rasmussen isn't great, but it's not terribly horrible. Rasmussen Reports is pretty bad.

[tankbug]

People tend to come to their senses before election day.

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I firmly believe.. one of the best places on the net to be the day after Trump wins (if he does.) is right here watching the saltyness!

Most of us are busy building fallout shelters that day.

[Cthulhu 2020]

WTF? Have no clue at all as to why you posted what you did or how it is any way relevant to what I posted.

BTW - I have never heard Trump use the words you have in posted in quotes. In fact, YOU are the only one using those words. I certainly didn't.

I sincerely hope Trump is elected for no other reason than I know it will piss you off to no ends.

I'll feel sorry for our troops, since Trump is a lunatic with an easily bruised ego who has already promised 25,000 troops on the ground in the middle east to wage war on ISIS. A lot of good people will get hurt and killed for no other reason than Trump is a narcissistic egomaniac.

But other than that I know Trump has very little power as president, with the legislative and judicial branches there to block his lunacy. If he gets elected, I honestly hope the Republicans hold onto both the house and the senate, just so we get to watch the conservative factions tear each other apart. If Democrats hold the two houses then it will just be a non stop barrage of how the Democrats are unpatriotic treasonous traitors for blocking Trump's "greatness".

[Reeve]

But other than that I know Trump has very little power as president, with the legislative and judicial branches there to block his lunacy.

He gets to select the next SCOTUS justice. That's a pretty major power.

And there's a fair amount you can do with executive orders and enforcement priorities.

[Kryos]

Please America, don't elect this egomaniac.

[unbound]

Would someone be so kind as to explain this for those uninitiated? Does this mean Trump is relatively close with the popular vote, but there's a wider gap in the electoral college?

It means that when it comes down to the election itself, the overall US average doesn't matter. Even in elections with blowout results (e.g. 2012 when Obama blew Romney out of the water, 332 to 206), the popular vote is pretty close (e.g. 2012 Obama got 51.06% of the vote vs Romney's 47.20%).

The reality is that the election will come down to the votes in 7 states due to how the electoral colleges are distributed and how strong the leads are for either candidate in particular states (e.g. Clinton will take California, Trump will take Texas, etc): Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Virginia, Michigan, and Florida...and Clinton (at least as of last week when I hunted down those state polls) has strong leads in 3 of those states, moderate leads in 3 more states, and a small lead in the last state.

[Narwal]

Would someone be so kind as to explain this for those uninitiated? Does this mean Trump is relatively close with the popular vote, but there's a wider gap in the electoral college?

It means that if you look at old polling data from weeks ago (note the dates), that clinton has a higher average in the polls than the 2 points in this latest poll.

RCP Average 4/17 - 5/10 -- -- 47.3 41.6 Clinton +5.7
Gravis 5/10 - 5/10 1574 RV 2.5 48 46 Clinton +2
PPP (D) 5/6 - 5/9 1222 RV 3.2 47 41 Clinton +6
CNN/ORC 4/28 - 5/1 890 RV 3.5 54 41 Clinton +13
Rasmussen Reports 4/27 - 4/28 1000 LV 3.0 39 41 Trump +2
IBD/TIPP 4/22 - 4/28 814 RV 3.5 47 40 Clinton +7
USA Today/Suffolk 4/20 - 4/24 1000 LV 3.0 50 39 Clinton +11
GWU/Battleground 4/17 - 4/20 1000 LV 3.1 46 43 Clinton +3

However, if stick your hand in boiling water to check the temperature, whether you are burned or not is not based on the average temperature of the water over the last month, it's based on the temperature at the time you stuck your hand in. Voting is the same way, it's a measurement at a specific time. It is possible this poll is an outlier, however, you can't use data that is weeks old to make that claim. You would need other polls during this specific time frame to understand that. Of course a single poll is nothing to hang a claim on either, so in essence, no poll can be seen on it's own to say anything definitively. However, as other polls come out going forward this could be a point where a shift began.

So basically he/she was trying to convince you this is an outlier poll by utilizing data that can't accurately back that up.

[TZucchini]

We're a long way out from this election. A lot can, and will happen. While Hillary is firmly ahead in aggregate polling, I think it will definitely tighten up.

Here's an interesting situation that's unfolding:

Trump’s candidacy sparking ‘a surge’ in citizenship, voter applications.

[ringpriest]

People tend to come to their senses before election day.

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Most of us are busy building fallout shelters that day.

Or liquidating our US holdings. (It's really a tough call - now is not a particularly great time to sell real property (particularly on short notice), but if Trump gets elected its only going to get worse - and I've got little enough like or respect for Clinton that I'm starting to feel it might be time to make like it's Weimar Germany in 1932 and I should just take advantage of the fact that I'm fortunate that I can gtfo and gtfo. But, man is that a big decision. )

[Narwal]

We're a long way out from this election. A lot can, and will happen. While Hillary is firmly ahead in aggregate polling, I think it will definitely tighten up.

Here's an interesting situation that's unfolding:

Trump’s candidacy sparking ‘a surge’ in citizenship, voter applications.

I'm so confused, who are these people becoming citizens? Illegals? Why aren't / weren't they trying to become citizens in the first place?

[muto]

As amused I am with someone like Trump being able to get this far, I'm sort of scared.
It's like the Bushes weren't enough.

Trump is an outsider though unlike the Bushes. Trump is more of the "peoples" president whereas the others are "establishment" presidents. I think Trump winning could be good in a way. It would show Washington that we won't give in to their "establishment" picks. I'm not saying I think Trump would be a good President per say. I just think it would send a message. Trump also says what most Americans think but don't have the guts to say. He would be America's "Putin". I think if Hillary wins it will only be because of Bill.

[Narwal]

Trump is an outsider though unlike the Bushes. Trump is more of the "peoples" president whereas the others are "establishment" presidents. I think Trump winning could be good in a way. It would show Washington that we won't give in to their "establishment" picks. I'm not saying I think Trump would be a good President per say. I just think it would send a message. Trump also says what most Americans think but don't have the guts to say. He would be America's "Putin".

In before "Doesn't speak what I think" posters who believe they're the voice of Americans.

[akris15]

I'm so confused, who are these people becoming citizens? Illegals? Why aren't / weren't they trying to become citizens in the first place?

Actually the complete opposite of an illegal. A greencard is where a legal permanent resident that is a non citizen can apply for naturalization after 5 years living in the us legally. They also have to take a test most Americans can't pass

[Height]

It's the swing states that matter and Hillary looks to be ahead in the average poll there. Still, it's too early. Let's wait for the debates. I'd still wager Hillary is going to win the whole thing in the end if I were to make a bet.

I'm also scared when people say Trump says what most Americans think, because in my heart or hearts I definitely do not think those things. LOL. Maybe what the average white heterosexual male heartland blue collar american thinks? I know I'd dump a guy immediately if he said some of the things Trump has said. If that's what the average guy thinks of women, the average guy is a douche.

[akris15]

I would kinda like to see how the whole tax return thing plays out. While people on this board doesn't think it's an issue to older Americans it is and even if you look at yahoo comments and other tea party friendly websites even they are a bit upset about his choice.

[Lenonis]

General polling always seems to tighten up leading into the general election.

That being said when you dive deeper into demographic polling and do an overlay with the electoral college map you can still quite clearly see that Trump has an uphill battle to fight to win in November. It's by no means impossible but to claim that Trump is clearly going to win or even really that it's an even race at this point is ignoring all the evidence to the contrary. If nothing else, the Dems just naturally have an electoral college advantage.