[Megathread] Wildstar - Now F2P

[wombinator04]

NCSoft Earnings Report......Wildstar not doing too well.





Calling anyone at Carbine to "leak" the source code, or something that allows the community to preserve Wildstar.
We don't need this to be yet another game NCsoft closes forever.

[carnifex2005]

Q1 2016 report should be dropping any day this week, could be the make or break for a classic NCSoft sunset.

As it stands, Daewoo's quarterly earnings forecast for NCSoft puts WildStar in at $2bKW or $1.7m USD. That translates to $566k per month in WildStar revenue if the forecast is correct.

According to NCSoft the 70man layoff in March represented 40% of Carbines employees which means they are down to roughly 45 employees (from 115, was 200 in 2014)

To pay 65k salaries to 45 employees would cost $243k per month. Definitely possible. That leaves 323k per month for operating costs, development, marketing, etc.

But WildStar really can't underperform in the next report because they are already at rock bottom revenue levels, there isn't room for any more layoffs or development cutting, poor performance this round could be the nail in the coffin.

Well this quarter Daewoo totally missed on revenue for Wildstar. It was only $1.3bKW. Far worse than even they thought. Wonder why the huge drop? Anyways, I would be shocked if this game lasts to the next quarter.

Looking at the various NCSoft games on this chart, you can see how truly tiny Wildstar is in comparison...

[Edge-]

Well this quarter Daewoo totally missed on revenue for Wildstar. It was only $1.3bKW. Far worse than even they thought.

Not really "far" worse, $2B KWN is stupid low to begin with, so hitting $1.3B, while a big % decrease isn't super significant. And as at least I expected, Daewoo overestimated WS. They're pretty reliable, but with WS they seem to consistently overestimate revenue a bit.

Wonder why the huge drop? Anyways, I would be shocked if this game lasts to the next quarter.

Because the F2P bump from last quarter is over and things are stabilizing again, very standard financial behavior. In terms of lasting beyond next quarter, it depends on when the Steam version launches and how it performs. Not to mention what NCsoft's expectations are/what the hard lines are in terms of revenue necessary to remain open. Things don't look good (it's at half the revenue of CoH when that was closed) but if NCsoft doesn't have anything else to invest the money into and can make a bit off of it then it may have a chance.

[Usagi Senshi]

Lineage continues to surprise me as it is complete dogshit compared to II IMO.

Also, WTB Aurin Warrior.....

[Jinxz]

Good Bye Wildstar, RIP. =(

[Graeham]

It's such a shame. The game has - or perhaps had - a huge amount of potential. It had one of the best systems for player housing in a game. The actual setting, music and lore is pretty great too. Then there's neat stuff like the way gravity works in Farside. I remember playing the game at launch and being super excited about all the weird and wonderful new zones and types of content that could be added...

...and yet so little actual content was added over time.

[nomorepriest]

I loved wildstar I did the attunements before they nerfed them all..
However everyone I played with quit and then I quit.. It went free to play and I started up for 2 days and didn't know what to do next..

Sad to see it fall.. If it was more popular it would be my game of choice even if it was Pay to play.

[Deleted]

Could the steam release be in jeopardy considering those earnings?

[Davemetalhead]

I would think the Steam release is the final throw of the dice at the Last Chance Saloon.

[Deleted]

I just started playing again and it should all be over? :S

I hope the steam release turns out good.

[Deleted]

http://store.steampowered.com/app/376570/ just says 2016 on steam. who knows if it will actually happen ? but NCSOFT knew about those numbers before they laid off 70 staff. Would have thought they would have closed the game then if they had given up all hope.

[Nehezbegar]

Well the problem is even if they put the game on steam, it does mean nothing. They can have bigger player base, but the most important thing is how many % of the ppl who will come in will stay and pay for stuff. This comes to the problem that they will focus more on monetization than content and this will close the death circle .

Anyways i hope they can pull back from this hell they are in, cuz the game is good and it would be a shame to loose it.

[Deleted]

Because the F2P bump from last quarter is over and things are stabilizing again, very standard financial behavior.

That's euphemistic. They went from 2.7 billion won to less than 1.3 billion within a single quarter. Depending on how expensive the f2p transition was, they might very well not even made that money back.

Not around for the CoH closure, but was there a period when they no longer accepted subscriptions before, or did it come very much ad hoc?

[Edge-]

Could the steam release be in jeopardy considering those earnings?

Nope, they just released news about changing cash shop currencies to support it: http://www.wildstar-online.com/en/ne...ng-protobucks/

That's euphemistic. They went from 2.7 billion won to less than 1.3 billion within a single quarter. Depending on how expensive the f2p transition was, they might very well not even made that money back.

Not around for the CoH closure, but was there a period when they no longer accepted subscriptions before, or did it come very much ad hoc?

That's not euphemistic, that's standard F2P behavior. The first quarter is always a huge bump and has a noticeable dropoff afterwards. Same thing happened with HoT's launch quarter and the following quarter. In WS since their revenue is so low to begin with the drop, while relatively small in terms of actual dollars (comparatively for the size of NCsoft) it looks bigger due to it's % dropoff.

Agreed about them potentially not making money off of it, I mean the recent round of layoffs pretty much confirmed that the very small revenue bump was not enough.

Not sure what your last bit is about, maybe not enough coffee yet.

[Kelimbror]

Additionally, Carbine made some mistakes early on that will continue to damage their revenue for many quarters to come. But those same actions may be what continues to get the game played right now, so who knows what the right way to go is? I'm specifically referring to the box promotions they had. I think the idea was to increase potential retention and widen the audience, but the end result was simply that the niche of players they already had gobbled them up like crack and now have subscriptions paid for a year+ without having to pay for it.

I'm one of those people, because I got almost 1.5 years in subscription at $5 a box. This means I got a 66.66% discount on the sub fee which was money they likely needed just to keep the lights on back then. Since then, they haven't had much of merit in the cash shop for a subscriber to buy...so I've spent very little. Additionally, the subscription itself isn't even enough of an incentive so there's no way I would renew.

Similarly, my wife had over 1.5 years of a sub and then won a free year from a housing contest sponsored by Carbine. Granted, she's spent *too* much money on the game since then...but it's not enough.

[catcommando]

Nope, they just released news about changing cash shop currencies to support it: http://www.wildstar-online.com/en/ne...ng-protobucks/

I don't have enough coffee in my brain. Does the appearance of these Protobucks mean that at some point Carbine is going to leave NCSOFT's stable and be their own entity? Or there is no chance in hell of that happening? Or is it just some kind of elaborate bookkeeping?

[Deleted]

Getting ripped off by Protostar just sounds better

( maybe they had to change it for steam Cat )

[Edge-]

I don't have enough coffee in my brain. Does the appearance of these Protobucks mean that at some point Carbine is going to leave NCSOFT's stable and be their own entity? Or there is no chance in hell of that happening? Or is it just some kind of elaborate bookkeeping?

Nope, not at all.

I've seen some folks talking about that, but this is a change that has nothing to do with that. They changed currencies specifically for Steam so that NCsoft doesn't lose 30% on any NCoin sold through Steam, as they're usable across the rest of their games. This way they can keep cash shop sales for WildStar specific to that game and not let it impact their other titles.

It's likely one of the driving reasons behind why they removed both L2 and Aion from Steam, both of which were brought back somewhat recently. Now that they have B&S performing very well for them in the West they don't want to cut into any potential revenue for that game.

[Deleted]

If it all goes pear shaped in the end, I just hope the steam release will give 1,000's who have not, the push to step onto Nexus! Wildstar is not the game for all...some will love it and some will hate, but it will be a crying shame to never see it.

[Deleted]

If it all goes pear shaped in the end, I just hope the steam release will give 1,000's who have not, the push to step onto Nexus! Wildstar is not the game for all...some will love it and some will hate, but it will be a crying shame to never see it.

I really hope so too, have big hopes for steam launch and I know I might be hoping too much but still.
Game is struggling a bit now, at least for pvp. Bg queues are long, lots of pvp players are leaving. I'm not contributing as I should either, been in Overwatch beta and will play quite a lot of Overwatch when it's launched. But I don't see myself leaving the game, when I play on my own Wildstar is where I want to be so I really hope Steam gives a very much needed boost in population.

Those quarterly report numbers aren't good at all :/ And like said, a lot is probably those cheap boxes that made players subscribed for many years to come, and with increased omnibits drop for subscribers those subscribers can get most of the things they want for free in the cash shop. Especially since the cash shop isn't exactly flooded with stuff either.