Mafia #70: D&D

[Graeham]

Not sure how much time is left, someone give me an update so I know if I should vote before I sleep

There's just over 16 hours left as of this post.

[Xanjori]

The problem is I don't really know who else to push if not Kurenai. His defence of LH and votes are what lead me to track him, we have him as a confirmed killer. He can claim to be town-aligned but I have a hard time believing it when one of his abilities was basically what was used to frame Arialla.

Other people I am willing to consider pushing are Dendrek, Celtic and Catta. Frankly because I haven't had any reason to trust them yet.

Also Allowyn, for the same reason.

Fuck all of you basically.

Except some of you, I trust some of you.

But I'd still let my wolf eat you.

[KurenaiXIII]

The problem is I don't really know who else to push if not Kurenai. His defence of LH and votes are what lead me to track him, we have him as a confirmed killer. He can claim to be town-aligned but I have a hard time believing it when one of his abilities was basically what was used to frame Arialla.

Other people I am willing to consider pushing are Dendrek, Celtic and Catta. Frankly because I haven't had any reason to trust them yet.

Also Allowyn, for the same reason.

Fuck all of you basically.

Except some of you, I trust some of you.

But I'd still let my wolf eat you.

It's not out of the question for someone else to have a similar ability. As I said, I never used that ability, since it was problematic at best. It's definitely a strange role to be town-aligned, I won't disagree with that. I thought so when I got the rolecard and I think so now.

[Deleted]

The problem is I don't really know who else to push if not Kurenai. His defence of LH and votes are what lead me to track him, we have him as a confirmed killer. He can claim to be town-aligned but I have a hard time believing it when one of his abilities was basically what was used to frame Arialla.

Other people I am willing to consider pushing are Dendrek, Celtic and Catta. Frankly because I haven't had any reason to trust them yet.

Also Allowyn, for the same reason.

Fuck all of you basically.

Except some of you, I trust some of you.

But I'd still let my wolf eat you.

And why don't you trust me baby?

I'll post properly later

[Xanjori]

And why don't you trust me baby?

I'll post properly later

I get that we should have lynched Blood because otherwise we end up with the same AFKers shit every game. But at the same time it can easily be seen as a deflection off Large. Now I'm giving you credit because you've been very vocal in the past few games in making sure AFKers die, but of course believing in coincidence is a bad.

I don't exactly distrust you completely, but I have no reason to trust you yet. I think there is only one person I trust, and they don't even know it.

[Allowyn]

Some of my robo text applies to you too.
So do you believe graeham was actually targeted/killed both nights instead of neither and being "feign death" like he's claiming? And that he has the power to end it whenever he wants (13 hours into D4, 90 minutes into D6)?

A theory I entertained was graeham + valyrian (+potentially another) were either a SK pair or small mafia team vs a larger other team [red] where graeham cant be NKed and valy cant be lynched (maybe a third cant be tracked/investigated/etc). Remember in danners MMMM game there was a small purple mafia with better powers but hit harder if killed, and a larger red mafia with more abilities to choose from and size advantage [and in that game the small purple mafia won by staying hidden -- and a Sk team of 2 existed]. But graeham and valy seem to have had conflicting agendas, and i'm not sure it fit my reads well enough to pursue.

If graeham is lying he's an SK/scum that has a difficult time being NKed and is frustrating the mafia night actions. In that scenario he's potentially dangerous to town but also soaking kills, so its a mixed bag. If graeham is telling the truth then we only had 1 kill N3 and 0 kills N5 which could set the stage differently. He seems to be more of a scum problem right now but not willing to relegate it permanently to that either.

I tried finding the robo text you specified and I came up with nothing so I may be missing the content?

Eitherway here are my thoughts:

I'm pretty much 99.99% behind my theory that Graeham is only able to die during a day lynch due to the way he's posting. Almost daring us to kill him at night, and nearly mocking as it seems to me in how he talked day the next day. Makes me also think he's a neutral role with a goal entirely outside of “mafia win” or “town win”?

Allowyn - Seems to be keeping to the shadows somewhat but when he/she?? is here, nice big posts.

Yeah nah I didn't post much this game. I've been trying to not drunkpost because lats time I went full retard and after someone I knew was town. Granted I was a mafia then but if that wasn't a stupid way to paint a target across my back than I don't know what is.

Allowyn
Day 1: 18 posts, Votes: Rixis, Listo
Day 2: 3 posts, Votes: N/A
Day 3: 3 posts, Votes: Allowyn, Blood Fox
Day 4: 4 posts, Votes: Arialla
Day 5: 0 posts, Votes: N/A
Thoughts:
I think a couple of posts that Allowyn had Day 2 are weird, one of which she calls all people who are “blaming” the Kurenai defenders scum, and the other was the post after day 2 was over, in which she was upset that she missed an opportunity to vote. It felt like it was for town points, and it’s all the more suspicious when actual scum was lynched that day. Content has been pretty lacking since Day 2, she advocated a Blood Fox lynch over Large, thinks Graeham is in a third party faction, but otherwise I didn’t pick up much. By the way, the whole “I’ve been drunk and raiding that’s why I’m not here” line? She used it last time and was scummy mcscum.

Verdict: I’m definitely leaning scum for Allowyn, and if there are scum teams I think she is a good candidate to be on Large and Jynx’s team.

Hey I have been drunk and raiding. If you doubt that I can post my logs and then pictures of all my recipts from buying beer. >_>

And D5 happened to fast. I had work that day. (I can post screenshots of my work log from then too if required :P)

But seriously I'm not going to post drunk again if I can help it, in my eyes it was a mistake and while probably great for scum, wouldn't be good for town this time around unless I was to secure a lycnh against someone I know is scum.

For my personal thoughts:

Dendrek is to be protected 100% at all costs.

Xanj has proven himself to be safe in my eyes. I don't question his town affiliation.

Val is safe. Paladin buddies.

Celtic I can't get a read on, not enough posts. :\

Senna, you're really active and you're doing your post break down thing but it's a little more indepth than usual? So i'm not sure if you're actively chasing town from a known invest style role or if you're scum. I'm still on the fence for you.

Kurenai seems to me to be playing this game the same way he did last game; keeping to the shadows. I'm leaning scummy.

Arialla is confirmed safe.

Virothe I'm fencing. I don't know a lot of you well enough to read outside out of one or two games so i'm really not sure here.

Robo is so afk we should probably just policy lynch.

Graeham I reckon is scum. And can only be day killed. See above.

Anakso is a policy lynch in my eyes.

Catta is whimsical and entertaining but I'm leaning town?

Crackle you've had too much good input to get rid of. Even though I feel you're using a bit of misdirection? Though I could just be reading your posts wrong.

Raza you I'm not sure of. I'm leaning town but you could very well be playing goodscum by seeming to investigate everything, questioning all, and fluffing the rest. At least that's the way I'd scum read you. Or I could just be very bad at town-trying-to-lycnh-scum reads.

Kryllian I haven't seen post enough to get a feel for so I have no clue here.

I think that's everyone.

Vote:Kurenai as I'm not sure I'll wake up in time to vote.

FoS: Graeham. Anakso and Robo for the lack of posts.

I sorta spewed this out without going over or consolidating a lot of it but I'm on a time limit, so please ask me for clarification points in a post quote so I know what to address exactly so I can then reply to you in turn asap.

[Anakso]

As of this post you're only 5 posts ahead of me btw Allowyn, I might not have been posting up a storm but every post I do make is my opinion on whats happening or a vote I believe in, it's not like my opinion has been totally absent from the game. Everyone else posting analysis managed to analyse me, there is definitely enough of a record there for that so I don't see how you could just classify me as a policy lynch. Robo I get though.

[Razamith]

I tried finding the robo text you specified and I came up with nothing so I may be missing the content?

For my personal thoughts:
(reads)

The robo text is referring to the part where we cant afford a mislynch (if town) on an semi-afk player who isn't providing content. Your post above helps -- thanks for sharing your reads. I agree on some of your analysis/reads but disagree with some others. I have a question on a few of them:

- Dendrek: what makes you 100% protect on him? I see plenty enough to doubt (maybe not enough to earn "lean scum" at least currently) but i put him no where near 100%. Unless you've got an unshared reason or I tremendously missed something.
- Val: uh i guess that's a claim of paladin, but what makes you think he's "safe"? There could easily be an anti-paladin especially how we often see the counterparts to classes turn up one scum one town (though not always).
- Arialla: again the term i dont like here is "confirmed safe". I have my read on ari situation but I certainly cant "confirm" it with knowledge available to me. Are you basing this on believing val completely?

The rest i vary in agree or disagree in part or whole but that's why they're reads.

-----------------

As for the lynch, besides the fact that we're having a hard time building pressure elsewhere (i almost voted robo earlier to get him incentivized to add more thoughts, but didn't and time in day is waning -.- ) here's where i sit with kuri which is where my virtual vote is:
- Kuri's playstyle/tone of posts make me read as lean town. I've seen scum kuri get upset easier. Now D1 kuri WAS very upset but i can see the reasoning so i vascillate there.
- Kuri's vote record and post timing is solidly lean scum. If he's scum he's gotta be aligned with jynx/large (even moreso if arialla is town)
- Kuri's situational history is being a barely not lynched D1 train and being tracked to graeham and claiming an unrealized kill. Its either neutral or lean scum overall.
- Kuri's claim is certainly scum sounding. The lurker vig is easily justified as town but the other two are pretty anti-town. Poison assassination cured by a "doctor" just screams as a way to hit someone without them dying if you're tracked to them or similar. There could be a town kill role but I imagine it would be closer to a true vig or have a failsafe built in or something (or the lurker vig part alone). Appear as another on visit (which i THINK you're implying you just visit them and dont do anything when you disguise?) is another that has so little town applications. Now of course listo is example of not town sounding that we got burned on, but maybe you're hoping that flies too. The biggest problem with just labeling full scum is justifying why you'd claim specifically the disguise ability when its not relevant (unless trying to be truthful town).

In the end i have to be ok with this lynch. It gives us info on D1 trains (town kuri would mean robo appears suspicious as not being on two town trains similar to large, and scum kuri would mean listo voters especially first 1/2 could be scrutinized heavier). Either way you'd flip if graeham doesn't die and no one claims cleansed poison then he's pretty clearly a questionable character, likely 3p. We also can see who argued this lynch early if you flip town, or who argued against if you flip scum.
I wouldn't be wholly opposed to looking at another train with 9 hours left, but the evidence would need to be compelling. I dont have the warmest feeling about this lynch.

[Senna1251]

Hey I have been drunk and raiding. If you doubt that I can post my logs and then pictures of all my recipts from buying beer. >_>

And D5 happened to fast. I had work that day. (I can post screenshots of my work log from then too if required :P)

No, I don't doubt it, just as I didn't doubt you last game when you said you were drunk and raiding. However that doesn't prove nor disprove that you're scum, all we have is the anti-town behavior of not being around. Though I read what I wrote again and I see why you thought I didn't believe you. I didn't write that line very well.

Many people took a hit post on Day 5, so I haven't taken lack of activity Day 5 specifically into account for anyone. I also was a lot more lenient as far as voting records for Day 5 except for the last 3 or so people who voted Large and ended the day early.

So i'm not sure if you're actively chasing town from a known invest style role or if you're scum. I'm still on the fence for you.

Can you clarify what you meant by this post?

Val is safe. Paladin buddies.

Hmmm, I don't know what to make of this soft claim and Val defense. First off, in a roleplay sense it wouldn't make sense for a Paladin to be scum in my eyes, but maybe others could chime in their thoughts on it. However, strictly from a gameplay sense and the history of this game not taking in RP, we have 2 instances in which people defended scum due to similar abilities and/or roles. First off day 2 Arialla defended Jynx because they had similar roles. Then day 4 Monkz defended Largehorn because they were both barbarians. History of this game would suggest if you are both Paladins then either you or Val are more likely to be scum, but RP does have a factor in this game. We also have one confirmed instance of 2 town having same class (Uggor and Lysah were druids).

[Razamith]

Therefore I think it may be best for people to let the poison do its work tonight so I'm not conveniently exploited as a lynch when the stakes are much higher later on in the game.

Still would like to know why you were seen N2. If town and you know you're poisoned, there's very few reasons i could see why to "withhold" this info, unless it cant be explained with your claimed abilities. Plus there's no way we'll lynch you today with the poison claim, but the paranoid part of me thinks you may say that and conveniently end up alive tomorrow.

[Kryllian]

@Senna1251 Thank you for putting that all together. I'm trying to go person by person and see if my recollection matches yours or where I differ but I probably won't get that post together until next game day.

If Graeham does survive to the next day I think he rises to the top of the lynch trains. His feign deaths and poisoning seem a little too contrived at this point as it's kept him off the lynch trains three days in a row now.

The more I think about the rogue ability to appear as someone else makes me question the list of people seen in the open the past few nights (Arialla's kill of Dupti, the big group seen in the flash) as he could have appeared as any of those people. I'm also wondering if his admission of having poisons and that appear as someone else skill is to get lynched and keep someone on his scum team with more powerful abilities out of the line of fire today.

[Razamith]

I'm trying to go person by person and see if my recollection matches yours or where I differ but I probably won't get that post together until next game day.

You almost sound confident you know you'll be living tomorrow.

The more I think about the rogue ability to appear as someone else makes me question the list of people seen in the open the past few nights (Arialla's kill of Dupti, the big group seen in the flash) as he could have appeared as any of those people. I'm also wondering if his admission of having poisons and that appear as someone else skill is to get lynched and keep someone on his scum team with more powerful abilities out of the line of fire today.

Town Kuri has already said he didn't use that ability, while scum Kuri could be possibly responsible for either a wrong name N2 or the arialla line or neither, but is still odd to claim it when irrelevant to his defense (being tracked to graeham).

[Kryllian]

Actually I'm surprised that I've stayed alive this long. Maybe people felt bad for lynching me first last game and have given me leeway. I was expecting to be NK'd last night as a gut feeling so that probably means tonight is my turn. But simply put I'm at work so there's no way I'm going to be able to put together my thoughts compared to Senna's in the next 7 hours. Plus my work computer sucks for large posts. The MMO-page tends to crash and cause a chrome lockup when I try to do large posts on it.

[Graeham]

Still would like to know why you were seen N2. If town and you know you're poisoned, there's very few reasons i could see why to "withhold" this info, unless it cant be explained with your claimed abilities. Plus there's no way we'll lynch you today with the poison claim, but the paranoid part of me thinks you may say that and conveniently end up alive tomorrow.

I'm a wizard who specialises in necromancy. I visited Listo to revive him as an undead thrall. If I secure three they protect me from an incoming night kill. Why was I so reluctant to speak of this? Well, simply put I knew both town and scum would leap at the chance to try and lynch me if I claimed to be a necromancer early on. I was prepared to be lynched early on for different reasons (a mini breakdown, in short) but then I decided to try and see the game through until the end...and promptly managed to make good use of my ability to feign death...twice.

I knew that unless a third party killer showed up dead I wouldn't be able to claim and count on surviving...so unless Kurenai flips a third party killer there's little point in my poison being cured tonight as I'll only be exploited tomorrow as a convenient lynch...assuming people don't push a lynch on me today, that is.

That's why I've been inclined to be so 'anti-town' by being evasive.

[Dendrek]

Other people I am willing to consider pushing are Dendrek, Celtic and Catta. Frankly because I haven't had any reason to trust them yet.

I'd like to know why me.

[Kryllian]

Graeham - Is this kill protection from the Thralls the same as the Feign Death you mentioned earlier and what we've seen with you dying then coming back meaning you were targeted for NK's twice?

[Virothe]

Virothe I'm fencing. I don't know a lot of you well enough to read outside out of one or two games so i'm really not sure here.

I bet it helps too that I've been planted in the ground by day 3 for over half a year at this point too :P

I understand the need for it people, I do! But that doesn't mean I can't be bitter about it!

Also; I asked for time last night and then forgot to check back. I fell asleep watched old re-runs of Naruto..... I'm not sure which of these I'm more ashamed about but I feel pretty shamed regardless.

[Razamith]

Graeham said earlier he had an ability which needed to be used three times, so this is separate from it. Graeham does your feign death prevent anything? IE: kills, targeting, whatnot? I would like you on record if you come up town we know you were/weren't night targeted and account for missing kills, and if you come up scum we have to consider all options. To your credit the feign death ability being announced in thread as so high profile that it would kinda suck as a scum ability. Unless i dont believe its "feign death" and rather vests/zombie blocks/undead 3rd party.
Same caveat of use best judgement on answer if it reveals anything.

[Graeham]

Graeham - Is this kill protection from the Thralls the same as the Feign Death you mentioned earlier and what we've seen with you dying then coming back meaning you were targeted for NK's twice?

I didn't die. The key is in the ability name - feign death. Nobody has targeted me so far (aside from Kurenai and the flavour text I received last night implies that I was indeed poisoned). The kill protection is a one off affair and requires me to revive three dead players...but I found myself reluctant to use the spell once it became clear that I would be a target of interest due to the required build up.

What's interesting, though, is that my role is aligned with town (which people will see as of tomorrow when I actually turn up dead). I don't want anybody to cure me tonight unless Kurenai flips third party scum. I'd prefer not to be left alive to be lynched in the end game and cost town the game.

Both scum flips so far haven't really stood out as 'evil' roles. So there's actually a good chance Kurenai may be telling the truth about being a town aligned assassin...but I'm unwilling to give him the benefit of the doubt simply due to his ability to pose as somebody else. That would help solve the Arialla mystery...because if he flips town there's actually a good chance that Arialla is scum after all.

[Razamith]

Also; I asked for time last night and then forgot to check back. I fell asleep watched old re-runs of Naruto..... I'm not sure which of these I'm more ashamed about but I feel pretty shamed regardless.

Has your opinion of robo changed with my reveal from the orb and/or yesterday/today's events?

- - - Updated - - -

I think graeham has answered my question with his reply to kryll. If we assume or if he confirms turning up town (tomorrow or later) that's 2-3 unaccounted for kills