BREXIT - leave or remain?

[Floopa]

You guys have really felt abandoned over there, haven't you? I mean, your parliament is nuts and your MPs don't care - I am starting to see why you would incline to vote "Leave".

I am sorry if this is sounding like an interview, I am genuinely curious. What do you intend to get out of a "Leave" vote?

i now live in woking (south of england, near london - very strong place to live for the work i do. voted 56% in favour of remain) and my hope is that by leaving the EU we face harsh economic times ahead - but no worse than 08's recession - and afterwards we will be in a superior situation. the EU is not a sustainable model. you keep bailing out countries which have no interest in being a beneficiary towards the EU (greece as a prime example). how do you expect people in countries to react when you have to tell them "well we have to give our money to another country to fund their incompetence", i certainly am not happy with it.

[alexw]

Most people on these forums have no clue about economics, and especially not the economic theory behind trade agreements. His argument makes no sense.

By the way in a north-north trade agreement (ie between developed countries like the EU) - the relatively poorer countries gain more than the richer based on income convergence. This is because countries with more extreme relative advantage (Germany) are more vulnerable to the effects of preferential trade agreements.

Actually his economic reasoning is 100% spot on. Its you and slant that are wrong because you simply do not understand macro-economics. You are under the erroneous impression that it functions like an individuals spending (because that is all you really know). It doesn't.

[klogaroth]

You guys have really felt abandoned over there, haven't you? I mean, your parliament is nuts and your MPs don't care - I am starting to see why you would incline to vote "Leave".

I am sorry if this is sounding like an interview, I am genuinely curious. What do you intend to get out of a "Leave" vote?

A lot of people I know who have voted leave don't actually, at the core of things, seem to be especially disenfranchised with the EU in particular, but more the entire political system. They see this as their best chance to shake things up.

This is from a declining former industrial town in the North West of England.

[alexw]

Why can't young people and the working class unite and vote in a party?

Very different outlooks and viewpoints. Also many of the working class are part of the over 50's who are gaining from that asset price inflation. So although they are with the young on other things a lot of them are also very pro asset price inflation.

[Slant]

Actually his economic reasoning is 100% spot on. Its you and slant that are wrong because you simply do not understand macro-economics. You are under the erroneous impression that it functions like an individuals spending (because that is all you really know). It doesn't.

Oooh, you used a big boy word! Are you sure it means what you think it means?

[alexw]

I didn't stamp my foot and said it's not going to happen. Germany knows how important fiscal transfers are. We do it within Germany all the time. I'm fairly certain the EU could do it on a European scale and Germany would support it. If the conditions are right. And a fiscal union should be a non-negotiable condition of this. You can't expect to actually tie Germany's fate with a rope to a country like Greece without some checks and balances involved. This is by the way essentially what Germany did with Greece. This kind of deal (we pay, but we'll make sure you don't waste the money like you did before) is basically a bilateral fiscal union as far as this one specific deal is concerned.

Those two go hand in hand. They have to. They cannot be seperated.

Then answer the question I asked. What year within the next decade do you expect the fiscal transfers to begin. Its a pretty simple question. If you can't answer it then well its obvious that you don't see those transfers happening thereby proving me correct.

[Slant]

Then answer the question I asked. What year within the next decade do you expect the fiscal transfers to begin. Its a pretty simple question. If you can't answer it then well its obvious that you don't see those transfers happening thereby proving me correct.

Never? Have you actually followed the conversation?

[Cairhiin]

Actually his economic reasoning is 100% spot on. Its you and slant that are wrong because you simply do not understand macro-economics. You are under the erroneous impression that it functions like an individuals spending (because that is all you really know). It doesn't.

I do understand macroeconomics perfectly fine. It was part of my field of study.

[alexw]

The Labour party built its power on the working class, but with the death of Liberal Democrats they've shifted to target the disenfranchised student and "liberal" voters, at the expense of there working class base. Which is why we've seen more areas that are typically Labour areas, begin to vote for the more right wing UKIP.

The problem is that labour has become progressive on social issues not on economic ones. Its on economics where the working class and the young see eye to eye. Not on social issues. If labour was smart it would have advanced the idea of a mass house building program. Asset taxes to fund education. Etc.

[TheTaurenOrc]

I think Floopa is conveying the most common sentiment of why people voted to leave.

The media and the Remain campaign have focused on the far right that were enticed by the opportunity for tighter immigration. Its an easy target but is a disservice to tarnish everyone as a racist or bigot because of the vocal few. The largest victory's for leave were in Labor strong holds; the good working class people salt of the earth types, that in any other election would have been seen as saintly and the back bone of Britain.

Its no coincidence that if you map income inequality and leave votes, they match. London and pockets of the South East are in a bubble, and those outside it have been ignored and trodden down for years and years. This should have been no shock to the Torys, and goes to prove how ignorant to the plight of working class the Remain campaign was.

How idiotic were they to say we aren't sending the EU £350M a week its only £147M a week! (after rebates and other expenses we would otherwise pay). Ah yes the average voter whos benefits were just cut 6 months ago is really going like that!

[alexw]

LOL what a fucking joke. Germany with the 7th highest living wages on continental Europe, and you on here talking shit? gtfo sun

Amusing. You have zero clue on what you are talking about and decide to criticize me on economics the subject under discussion. Tell me what do you understand about household share of GDP, trade imbalances, capital flows, saving rates, and how they all interact? I'm willing to bet absolutely nothing.

[Wikiy]

The funny thing is that Britain will probably lose more money as a result of the hit the pound took (and generally the current and incoming economic state) than it has given to the EU (in total). Purest of ironies.

[alexw]

I can't even take this serious anymore... believe what you will...

Its not a case of belief it is a case of know. A specialism of mine is macroeconomics.

- - - Updated - - -

I have recently made it a habit to not click on blog links. 9 out of 10 of them are bullshit and the 10th is likely to spread trojans or some other shit. So yeah, no play. Sorry, buddy. Come again when you have a scholastic source.

Err that is a scholastic source. Its by the professor of economics Michael Pettis. He writes on economic world events in his spare time. The link I provided is to some of that which he included in his later book. If you knew anything about macroeconomics you would know he is well respected in this field.

[Repefe]

im sure this is why people are disillusioned with EU in wales and why wales voted, higher than any other country, to vote leave. we will stop accepting money from EU which goes to science/research and the UK govt will be forced to pump money into areas rife with unemployment, vandalism, crime etc

Reminds me of the article about Ebbw Vale. EU built college, leisure centre, train station, railway line, new roads, football pitch and there was a plan for a car factory and motor racing circuit to be built there. In the end ... they voted 62% leave.

Now they are wondering if/when government will replace EU in funding the region redevelopment.

Fingers crossed.

[TheTaurenOrc]

The funny thing is that Britain will probably lose more money as a result of the hit the pound took (and generally the current and incoming economic state) than it has given to the EU (in total). Purest of ironies.

It is, but those who voted leave had nothing to start with. Why would they care for stocks and currency that appear to have no bearing on their daily lives?

Thats why I was so infuriated by the Remain campaign, the message of stick with the status quo or things are going to get much, much worse was never going to resonate with the working class who already feel they have hit rock bottom.

[Ravenblade]

Oooh, you used a big boy word! Are you sure it means what you think it means?

Actually I think both sides are making good points, the problem is the same between Varoufakis and Schäuble. They are of different economic schools. In one school, investments and good trade balance wins, in the other one austerity and pro-business policy wins. Social vs. liberal economics so to speak. Economic schools are however like religions, there is an unbridgable gap between both. They can't get along well at all.

[alexw]

Oooh, you used a big boy word! Are you sure it means what you think it means?

Yes, use an ad hominem because you can't actually discuss the point I am making because you don't actually understand it as I have said.

[Wikiy]

It is, but those who voted leave had nothing to start with. Why would they care for stocks and currency that appear to have no bearing on their daily lives?

What kind of logic is this? Under this logic, I can then ask you why anyone who voted leave would care for the money that's being sent to the EU.

[alexw]

I do understand macroeconomics perfectly fine. It was part of my field of study.

Then you understand that it is unit labor costs which matter vis a vis trade competitiveness and not what the real or nominal wage is? Because the former factors in productivity while the latter does not? If so why are you saying that he is wrong on this point?

[ati87]

I think Floopa is conveying the most common sentiment of why people voted to leave.

The media and the Remain campaign have focused on the far right that were enticed by the opportunity for tighter immigration. Its an easy target but is a disservice to tarnish everyone as a racist or bigot because of the vocal few. The largest victory's for leave were in Labor strong holds; the good working class people salt of the earth types, that in any other election would have been seen as saintly and the back bone of Britain.

Its no coincidence that if you map income inequality and leave votes, they match. London and pockets of the South East are in a bubble, and those outside it have been ignored and trodden down for years and years. This should have been no shock to the Torys, and goes to prove how ignorant to the plight of working class the Remain campaign was.

How idiotic were they to say we aren't sending the EU £350M a week its only £147M a week! (after rebates and other expenses we would otherwise pay). Ah yes the average voter whos benefits were just cut 6 months ago is really going like that!

Don't try to distance yourself now from the racist arguments now the leave campaign used as their go to argument. The go to argument has always been how Polish people are welfare queens and how Turkish people would rape the English women.

Every argument they used somehow fell back to immigrants
something is to expensive...blame the immigrants
housing....blame the immigrants

The remain camp is just as bad, instead of calling out on their BS they half agree with the leave side and then act surprised afterwards.

The entire remain camp pisses me off TBH, the constant ''the EU is flawed and we should change it within'' is kind of insulting. The EU is functioning as it should, it works based on general consensus and if anything needs fixing is the ability's for other member's to punish member's that are clearly not working screwing up their own country and the EU as a whole.

The UK has never been a good and willing partner when it came down the EU. So please spare us how the EU has it's major flaws that only the UK can fix.