Quinnipiac Poll July 13: Trump tied or beating Clinton in OH, FL, and PA

[akris15]

Not suprising this was after the FBI indictment situation and before Bernie endorsed her. Expect Trump numbers to be high until after the Democratic Convention because of possible VP pick and the convention bump this/next week.

Trump should have had a bigger bump from the FBI announcement than a statistical tie because honestly she should have received an indictment so him barely beating Clinton after that in the poll snapshot should be worrying for the republicans.

[Masark]

lmao this picture on Trump's twitter is awesome, I gotta give it to him (or rather to the guy who posted it)

I might be old, but that looks pretty obviously shooped.

It is shopped.

http://www.snopes.com/hillary-stupid-shirt/

She's wearing a plain white shirt in the original, as well as in other pictures from the event.



https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/sta...02663521636352

[Tijuana]

It is shopped.

http://www.snopes.com/hillary-stupid-shirt/

She's wearing a plain white shirt in the original.



https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/sta...02663521636352

That crowd sure looks smaller zoomed out though.

[Kokolums]

Elections have been pretty stable for a long time. It keeps coming down to Ohio and Florida. The current political map has been the same since the 1992 election. That was the first time you saw the democrats holding a coalition of the northeast + the pacific states, with the battle being fought on the midwestern states.

2016 will be the 7th election with the 1992 map.

[Tijuana]

Elections have been pretty stable for a long time. It keeps coming down to Ohio and Florida. The current political map has been the same since the 1992 election. That was the first time you saw the democrats holding a coalition of the northeast + the pacific states, with the battle being fought on the midwestern states.

2016 will be the 7th election with the 1992 map.

Except Pennsylvania. That isn't normally in play, is it? I certainly don't recall it ever being discussed as a swing state.

[KrazyK923]

Probably because the GOP has spent 25 years talking about how she's the devil.

But I find it hilarious people think Trump has even a chance.

[Polyxo]

This seems to be more of an outlier regarding Quinnipiac polling strategies than anything else.

[Wells]

This seems to be more of an outlier regarding Quinnipiac polling strategies than anything else.

Quinnipiac is a good outfit, but that doesn't preclude outlier results. I think the 538 interpretation is the right one, that earlier polls were a little too optimistic in favor of Clinton, but not significantly.

[akris15]

Quinnipiac is a good outfit, but that doesn't preclude outlier results. I think the 538 interpretation is the right one, that earlier polls were a little too optimistic in favor of Clinton, but not significantly.

We need to remember these were taken during the time of the FBI announcement. That clearly did (and should) hurt her but its impact will soften up a bit with regards of how the general public thinks as we head to November. In addition next week Trump will probably make a bigger lead following his VP pick and convention since all the focus will be on him. If he doesn't get this convention bump then that will be a major red flag for republicans. After the Democrats do their thing Clinton will probably bump back up to where she was about 2 weeks ago unless something major happens between now and the Democrat Convention.

[Celista]

Isn't Quinnipiac the only poll that Trump was winning in from a couple weeks ago?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/president/

Looks like Clinton's still ahead in most of them.

MADMAN
A
D
M
A
N

Are we playing Scrabble?

[akris15]

Isn't Quinnipiac the only poll that Trump was winning in from a couple weeks ago?

You are probably thinking of Rasmussen which is noted to have a heavy Republican bias. Quinnipiac is one of the better polls out there.

[Celista]

You are probably thinking of Rasmussen which is noted to have a heavy Republican bias. Quinnipiac is one of the better polls out there.

Oh so I am. Welp, that sucks.

[ControlWarrior]

Probably because the GOP has spent 25 years talking about how she's the devil.

But I find it hilarious people think Trump has even a chance.

How many Trump votes can I put you down for?

[Tempguy]

My ex went there. Nice school.

Seeing as how she is really smart, yet oh so stupid in her own ways, I question this poll.

Actually, I question all polls so damn soon. Why even bother? Why not give me a poll on who you think the next NBA champions will be since we are into making polls so early?

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The US is a pretty conservative country, any GOP nominee has a good chance at winning the elections, and with Hillary's polling, record, and public opinion it wouldn't take much for her to lose.

If only there was a candidate that consistently polled better against Trump.

Any word on where the Libertarian candidate is? Is he going to be allowed into debates or did he not reach his magic number?

You don't know the U.S. When it comes to politics, No GOP president has a chance at winning ever since Bush. Even then, Bush lost the popular vote. And an argument can be made that the only reason the GOP has congress is due to gerrymandering.

The party is all but dead at this point.

[Nfinitii]

A lot can still change for the polls, I think the most interesting part of all this is the spending. The polls r close in these states when Trump has barely spent any money compared to Hillary.

This was an interesting point in the primaries where the other republicans spent way more money than Trump and lost. Especially Bush the establishment favorite.

[akris15]

Oh so I am. Welp, that sucks.

These numbers are expected honestly after the FBI announcement last week.

[ControlWarrior]

My ex went there. Nice school.

Seeing as how she is really smart, yet oh so stupid in her own ways, I question this poll.

Actually, I question all polls so damn soon. Why even bother? Why not give me a poll on who you think the next NBA champions will be since we are into making polls so early?

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You don't know the U.S. When it comes to politics, No GOP president has a chance at winning ever since Bush. Even then, Bush lost the popular vote. And an argument can be made that the only reason the GOP has congress is due to gerrymandering.

The party is all but dead at this point.

Forgot to mention 31 governors are Republican, and only 18 are Democrats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ates_governors

One party is definitely becoming more irrelevant.

[akris15]

A lot can still change for the polls, I think the most interesting part of all this is the spending. The polls r close in these states when Trump has barely spent any money compared to Hillary.

This was an interesting point in the primaries where the other republicans spent way more money than Trump and lost. Especially Bush the establishment favorite.

Its an interesting thought but lets be honest here he's getting alot of free advertisement from Cable News because of all the stuff he says. Basically if you add up all the air time Trump has gotten its basically equal to what his opponents bought for advertisement.

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Forgot to mention 31 governors are Republican, and only 18 are Democrats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ates_governors

One party is definitely becoming more irrelevant.

That's more due to most governor races are ran on off year elections and its no secret Democrats have issues having people come out on none presidential years.

[Tempguy]

Forgot to mention 31 governors are Republican, and only 18 are Democrats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ates_governors

One party is definitely becoming more irrelevant.

Good luck with that.

When Hillary is looking better than your nominee, I don't think a party is in a position to say that they have strong presidential prospects.

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Both side gerrymander, it just depends on who's in charge.

I really hope Clinton and the DNC take Trump more seriously than the GOP. At this point I agree with you, he doesn't stand much of a chance, but I'd still give him a 40% chance. It's still early in the presidential race, and I feel like a few more bombshells will happen before November 8th.

I just want to be clear. I lean conservative. I am just calling em as I see em. The GOP has a choice now. Double down on crazy and get more Trumps hijacking the party, or admit they pandered to their tiny crazy minority for far too damn long.

By the way it looks, they aint changing so they can kiss the white house goodbye for a couple generations.

[akris15]

By the way it looks, they aint changing so they can kiss the white house goodbye for a couple generations.

The sad part was even if you went with someone like Rubio this would have been an easy election for the Republicans to win but now there is a strong chance they are even going to lose the senate because they went too far down this populist path.