Turkish news agency openly blames USA for coup (????)

[Deleted]

I personally have come to believe that some part of this was staged, some generals bought in to the idea that was fetched to them seriously and they went with it thinking ''the people and army will rise''.

It was so, so ineptly run and organized. Taking over TV studios only to abandon them... not cracking down on the internet... all those are ''dummies 101 how to coup'' rules.

That might by the case. However, what's interesting is how turkey official line is now against the US which is a stand turkey rarely took in the recent past.

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turkey is no Iraq or Libya...they got +/- the 10 strongest military force in the world

Another war of on European borders. That's cool

[wooters]

Well, if we want to speculate:

What if the US actually was involved, and Erdogan was tipped off by Putin that it would happen? This coup has seriously damaged Turkey's standing with its Allies, something Russia benefits from. Imagine Turkey was to leave Nato and hook up with Russia. Free movement into the mediteranean for Russia's fleet, loss if a strategically important lauch site for US Nukes, another sizable pro-russian force right next to the EU...

you show your cluelessness with history here...as Russia is turkeys arch enemy of old, and pretty much still is. it is as likely as china will aid the world in taking down n.korea

[Fruujik]

That might by the case. However, what's interesting is how turkey official line is now against the US which is a stand turkey rarely took in the recent past.

It's irrelevant.

[Deleted]

It's irrelevant.

This is actually the topic of this thread.

[Fruujik]

This is actually the topic of this thread.

And?

The point I'm making is that Erdogan barking at US is irrelevant. It has happened before. Even from much closer allies.

It' irrelevant. Nothing is going to change. First and foremost, this is all aimed at the domestic audience. I doubt Obama and his office is even aware of these statements. The Turks did not plan and will not do what the US has asked them to do for years now - actively engage ISIS.

[Deleted]

And?

The point I'm making is that Erdogan barking at US is irrelevant. It has happened before. Even from much closer allies.

It' irrelevant. Nothing is going to change. First and foremost, this is all aimed at the domestic audience. I doubt Obama and his office is even aware of these statements. The Turks did not plan and will not do what the US has asked them to do for years now - actively engage ISIS.

It has happened before?

[Fruujik]

It has happened before?

It has. To a lesser degree with Turkey but very much to other European countries.

You pay too much attention to rabble rousing, headline making news and very little to what are the national interests and strategies of said countries.

[Deleted]

It has. To a lesser degree with Turkey but very much to other European countries.

You pay too much attention to rabble rousing, headline making news and very little to what are the national interests and strategies of said countries.

Sorry, you said something like this, aka erdogan openly siding against the US, is something that happened before. Please provide examples.

[Kuntantee]

Sorry, you said something like this, aka erdogan openly siding against the US, is something that happened before. Please provide examples.

It didn't happen before. We don't know if he will take a stance now. Considering he's corrupt to the root, I doubt he would openly go against USA.

[Fruujik]

Sorry, you said something like this, aka erdogan openly siding against the US, is something that happened before. Please provide examples.

What a way to twist the narrative.

First of all, he`s throwing out an accusation that has no merit. And I said to a lesser degree. Your premise of ''openly siding against the US'' - siding to who? Barks and hysterical remarks are not shifts in policy or anything like it.

It`s callled... *gasp* R - H - E - T - H - O - R - I - C.

Amazing, I know.

[Deleted]

It didn't happen before. We don't know if he will take a stance now. Considering he's corrupt to the root, I doubt he would openly go against USA.

Exactly, and that's why I really think we're walking in uncharted territory here.
The usual developments would be economic and political pressure to remove him from power but I relly doubt the West can take another set of sanctions on, especially cause that would push Turkey away from Europe again and that is NOT something we want to do.

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What a way to twist the narrative.

First of all, he`s throwing out an accusation that has no merit. And I said to a lesser degree. Your premise of ''openly siding against the US'' - siding to who? Barks and hysterical remarks are not shifts in policy or anything like it.

It`s callled... *gasp* R - H - E - T - H - O - R - I - C.

Amazing, I know.

So has he ever came up with such rethoric in the past, specifically aimed at the US? Dont worry, Kuntantee has already answered that for you.

[Fruujik]

Exactly, and that's why I really think we're walking in uncharted territory here.
The usual developments would be economic and political pressure to remove him from power but I relly doubt the West can take another set of sanctions on, especially cause that would push Turkey away from Europe again and that is NOT something we want to do.


So has he ever came up with such rethoric in the past, specifically aimed at the US? Dont worry, Kuntantee has already answered that for you.

Why the fuck would we want to remove Erdogan from power? What the fuck are you even on about?
European powers and Obama came out to support him as coup was happening - not after it.

No one cares what he does domestically. No one cares if he murders all those generals.

Once again, you took something I never said and demanded me to give evidence for a premise which I never made in the first place.

[Deleted]

He knows that the US can't attack Turkey as long as it's in NATO, so he can stand up against them with impunity. Also, if the US launched an attack on Turkey, Erdogan could just trigger Art.5 and the rest of NATO would be obligated to kick out and then attack the US.

[Deleted]

He knows that the US can't attack Turkey as long as it's in NATO, so he can stand up against them with impunity. Also, if the US launched an attack on Turkey, Erdogan could just trigger Art.5 and the rest of NATO would be obligated to kick out and then attack the US.

It's almost as if some cockroaches have moved into someone's home.

[Shalcker]

He knows that the US can't attack Turkey as long as it's in NATO, so he can stand up against them with impunity. Also, if the US launched an attack on Turkey, Erdogan could just trigger Art.5 and the rest of NATO would be obligated to kick out and then attack the US.

Hahaha, very funny

But conflicts between NATO members sadly don't work like that (as has been proven with Cyprus).

[Elegiac]

He knows that the US can't attack Turkey as long as it's in NATO, so he can stand up against them with impunity. Also, if the US launched an attack on Turkey, Erdogan could just trigger Art.5 and the rest of NATO would be obligated to kick out and then attack the US.

More than likely they'd give Turkey the finger and join the US.

[Deleted]

He knows that the US can't attack Turkey as long as it's in NATO, so he can stand up against them with impunity. Also, if the US launched an attack on Turkey, Erdogan could just trigger Art.5 and the rest of NATO would be obligated to kick out and then attack the US.

ehm.... wat?

[Fruujik]

More than likely they'd give Turkey the finger and join the US.

This. US can be unforgiving and I would hate to live a in country that would try to form a coalition against the worlds only superpower.

Hasn't worked in the past.

[Skroe]

I've thought about this. @Skroe would be the right person to butt in and spread some facts, but here's what I'm thinking... assuming that Turkey waves bye bye and goes over to Russia, we have two things that NATO would sorely miss: 1. Airbases and 2. Controlling the bosporus.

About airbases, well the US pretty much has floating airbases wherever they want. Much of their combat operations happen from the persian gulf. It's the rest of NATO that has to rely on Turkey allowing them to use their air bases. So that's a bummer.

About the Bosporus... I realised that the only reason Turkey controls it is because of the tiny, tiny speck of land they have on the European continent. Should a war break out with Turkey on the wrong side, it actually takes no more than a couple well aimed air-ground missiles to destroy the bridges and cut off Istanbul from Turkish mainland. Actually sacking the European side of Turkey would be a joke. And that would give NATO control over the Bosporus straight back. So... I may have overestimated the value on Turkey in that aspect in the past.

This is of course a gloves-off scenario.

Well a few things.

Yes the US has floating airbases (carriers)... but using foreign airbases is so much cheaper. Like unbelievably. Aircraft carriers cost upwards of $300 million, per year, to operate (the same way your car has an annual operation costs: fuel + repairs). And just in terms of efficiency and cost savings, it is far preferably to bomb ISIS or whoever using B-52s or B-1Bs that can loiter for over half a day and carry huge amounts of fuel and weaponry, then have to send small F/A-18Es, that have to refuel in air every couple of hours, and carry a handful of bombs, to do the same. In every respect, anywhere, operating from land bases is desirable as a cost savings measure.

All you need for a B-52 after all is a hanger, a big runway and some equipment to fuel and load it. The US started it's anti-ISIS campaign from a carrier, but worked hard to get access from Turkey, because it didn't want to tie up a carrier there for a couple of years, and wanted to do it cheaper. This mirrors, by the way, the run up to the Iraq War, when Turkey declined the US request to use their territory. The initial invasion was far more expensive and difficult, because the US wasn't allowed to just drive and fly across the border.

In terms of nuclear weapons (you didn't bring this up but somebody else did), Turkey is home to 50 of the B61 nuclear bombs. If ever moved out of Turkey, they'd be moved somewhere else, and the absolute worse case scenario is that they are stored on carriers again, like they were doing the Cold War (modern US carriers usually don't carry nuclear weapons, Cold War warships did).

And there are even more exotic options if push came to shove. The US has played with, periodically, over the the last 20 years, the Seabase concept: basically building a bunch of these massive, rectangular, modular barges and strapping them together. They'd forum a gigantic runway, far larger than a carrier, that they could land and fly C-17s, C-130s and F-15Es off of. The cost isn't crazy - $4 billion, a third of a carrier (they're considerably simpler), and the chances of the US ever building once except in an emergency is remote, but it goes to show, there are options of all sorts.

In terms of theoretical replacements to Turkey, the US is building up an expanding presence in Romania. The advantage of Turkey during the Cold War as it's proximity to Russia's "soft underbelly" (as opposed to Western Germany, where striking Russia would have been like striking its most defended part). From Turkey you can easily fly and bomb the Russian (Soviet) industrial heartland and war making capability, across the black sea. At one time this meant Ukraine, but now it means what is just across the Russian-Ukrainian border. Furthermore Turkish bases were critical for B-1B and B-2s to go deep behind enemy lines and look for mobile launchers. Theoretically, the US could do the same with Romania.

Insofar as Turkey specifically is concerned, it will never go over to Russia. In fact, just a month before the coup, at the NATO summit, Erdogan managed to get a major concession out of NATO - that it would base a permanent Naval Force in the black sea to guard against Russian aggression. NATO didn't do this during the Cold War. Erdogan wanted it, and he got it.

Turkey and Russia may share some superficial similarities, but their history makes Turkey abandoning NATO for them extremely unlikely. If anything Turkey is going to do what it always does, which is publicly make a scene and a grand show of it all, and privately be rather reasonable.

It will be up to Obama and his successor to make sure Erdogan knows what the limits of his performance are.

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He knows that the US can't attack Turkey as long as it's in NATO, so he can stand up against them with impunity. Also, if the US launched an attack on Turkey, Erdogan could just trigger Art.5 and the rest of NATO would be obligated to kick out and then attack the US.

I've seen some ass backwards shit in my day....

[Kuntantee]

USA attacking Turkey, NATO defending Turkey...Turkey forming a coalition to fight USA. Do you bunch ever make sense?

@Skroe
This time tho, Erdogan might consider this whole thing as an existential threat to himself. I've already told you people are convinced that this has something to do with USA and Erdogan is among them. Dunford is coming to Turkey, to find a middleway or to show him his place?