I don't particularly understand this topic. Sure I understand the question. But you tell us that you are a seasoned guildleader, yet you do not know if you are late to the party or not and it is would be hard or not. And sure I am coming at you right now for asking this question because I would expect a seasoned leader to know this stuff. But appearantly you don't which either means that I have far higher standards from what I regard as a guildleader. Or you overestimate yourself as being seasoned. Or you might be seasoned (as in being a leader for a long time) but not a very good one.
I am sorry I wrote this - was not my intention to put you down or something.
Now as I am a good and seasoned guildleader (or so other people tell me from years back to now):
It depends if you have time to organise your guild in time or what your goals are.
If you want a casual guild (that raids) and have no expectations to clear a certain difficulty within the normal amount of time, you can start recruiting whenever. Just make sure your guild is fun for your recruits. Good atmosphere etc.
If your guild wants to make sure it downs every content piece available (raidwise), then without good raiderfriends to start a core with, you are pretty much fucked. You are better of to join another guild and try to make officer there etc.