Legendary items drop bug?

[OrcsRLame]

Can someone post some theoretical numbers on the chance 1 person gets 2 legendaries? Like .01% from mythic boss an 1% from cache?

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Just something so this can be visualized.

If the chance of getting a legendary is .1% from a mythic boss, then the chance of getting two legendaries from mythic bosses is .00001%. because it is .1% of .1. One in 10 million chance if I'm not mistaken. I'm pretty shit at math so I may have fucked up somewhere.

[Axelond]

We have plenty of proof that the bad luck prevention only seems to kick in after receiving your first legendary. What about all the people saying it's just RNG actually post one numerically accurate guild that has at least 10:1 people with 1 legendary compared to 2.

If legendaries are a 1% (they are not) we should have 100 people with 1 legendary to every person with 2 legendaries.
Right now people are trying to debate if the ratio is 1:1 and can barely find examples of guild that meet that criteria.

Pull whatever numbers you want from wowprogress, armory, this thread any numbers will yield the results that legendaries are bugged. Before you blindly say everything is working fine provide anything at all and I will be impressed and may believe you.

People said the exact same thing about Sha of Fear mount "rng is rng" few weeks later blizzard hotfixes it saying the drop was bugged. They fucked up drop rates in the past don't see why this is so hard to believe for some people.

[Deleted]

Can confirm that i'm seeing the same results, more persons with 2 legendary than with 1 .

[Penguintamer]

My guild's got a druid with 2 legendaries, a hunter with 2 legendaries, and a warrior with 1.

[kamuimac]

Our guild has been chain running mythics since week 1.
Myself I have run 3 full mythic clears (3 110 chars) each week since week 1 (including the court of stars).

In our guild, 3 people have gotten legendaries (in this order: first a monk, then a druid, and then a DH).
1 week later, the monk gets his second legendary, then the druid gets his second, and then the DH gets his second (i.e. in the same EXACT order, and basically in a linear time frame between the drops).

So far, nobody else has gotten a legendary.
I know this is a small sample size, but the two other friends on my friendlist who have legendaries, have ALSO gotten 2. I do not know a single person who has 1. They either have 2 or 0.

I'm wondering if anyone else has any similar experiences, as it would be annoying if there was some kind of bug involved with the drop chance of legendaries.

its pure rng - i know 2 people with 2 + legendaries already while ive seen 0 - rng is rng and its brutal at times.

unfair rng will be main there of this expansion especially with how blizzrd pushed personal loot.

and people looking into "patterns" its like with gambling addicts they loose fortune because they belive that with long enough unlucky streak the big win has to come - not it doesnt - we dont know what the unlucky protection is atm - it may be as well having to kill 300-500 mythic dungeon bosses before it kicks in while others iwll have lucky streaks of 10 legendaries out of those 500 bosses.

[Adramelch]

and people looking into "patterns" its like with gambling addicts they loose fortune because they belive that with long enough unlucky streak the big win has to come - not it doesnt - we dont know what the unlucky protection is atm - it may be as well having to kill 300-500 mythic dungeon bosses before it kicks in while others iwll have lucky streaks of 10 legendaries out of those 500 bosses.

It's not a "he has 2, I have none, so there must be a bug" thing though. We're talking about heaps of guilds (if people are to believed, that is) where there's more people having 2 than the people that only have 1, which is unreasonable, regardless of RNG.

[kamuimac]

It's not a "he has 2, I have none, so there must be a bug" thing though. We're talking about heaps of guilds (if people are to believed, that is) where there's more people having 2 than the people that only have 1, which is unreasonable, regardless of RNG.

30-40 is not heaps - its statisticlly irrelevant - if you had a sample of 100k + guilds then i would treat it seriously - even if you had 1000 x guild sample it could still fit within standard deviation.

[Overdispersion]

30-40 is not heaps - its statisticlly irrelevant - if you had a sample of 100k + guilds then i would treat it seriously - even if you had 1000 x guild sample it could still fit within standard deviation.

What are you talking about. In a +1M population, a sample size of 500 would already give a very small margin of error with high confidence level.

100k+ guilds? Do you know how large sample size that is?

[Cracked]

30-40 is not heaps - its statisticlly irrelevant - if you had a sample of 100k + guilds then i would treat it seriously - even if you had 1000 x guild sample it could still fit within standard deviation.

As I said, I could understand an odd guy with 2 legendaries. But at this point, I know 16 people in total who have gotten A legendary, 14 of which have also received a second one. Even with such small sample, you can deduce that something is off. And going off of what others are saying, people have the same experience throughout. Saying this is statistically irrelevant is stupid.

[Yoshimiko]

Looking for patterns in RNG is exactly how shit like this gets found. https://www.twitch.tv/nescardinality/v/89269921

RNG is not like rolling the dice IRL. Computers don't do random, they can't. When something is not random enough, such that patterns start to emerge, there's usually something very broken concerning the code. It's not apophenia when you're dealing with computers.

RNG is EXACTLY like rolling dice IRL. If you know all of the factors(algorithm), you can compute the results.

On topic: 21 out of 23 people I spoke with, with legendaries have two or more. Somethings fucky. Some fun stats: I've ran 113 heroics and 18 normals at ~4 bosses each, and I've seen 1 legendary drop. That'd put it around 1/2,260 for heroic drop rate. Assuming what I've seen is unlucky, and it's actually 1/1000, and the average player with a legendary has ran 100 heroics, roughly 1/1,000,000 players would have seen two legendaries. The odds are astronomically low that 21 of 23 people would hav efound a second legendary.

[Mifuyne]

4 legendaries dropped so far, 1 person has found 2.

[Fevyz]

30-40 is not heaps - its statisticlly irrelevant - if you had a sample of 100k + guilds then i would treat it seriously - even if you had 1000 x guild sample it could still fit within standard deviation.

30-40 is indeed not heaps. The interesting part is when you know 30-40 people in your guilds friend/social group that have 2 legendaries on the same character. I personally know of 15 ish people on my friendlist alone.

[Aggrophobic]

30-40 is not heaps - its statisticlly irrelevant - if you had a sample of 100k + guilds then i would treat it seriously - even if you had 1000 x guild sample it could still fit within standard deviation.

Statistics is not really your thing, is it?

[Hoofnmouth]

3 guild legendaries, 3 different users.

This is how it is in my guild too.

[OrcsRLame]

30-40 is not heaps - its statisticlly irrelevant - if you had a sample of 100k + guilds then i would treat it seriously - even if you had 1000 x guild sample it could still fit within standard deviation.

It is statistically significant because it's astronomically unlikely. For every 100 people that have a single legendary, there should be 1 that has 2. If the drop chance is 1 in 100, then it's a 1 in 100,000 chance for someone to have 2. If it's a 1 in 1000 drop rate, then it's a 1 in 10,000,000 chance for 1 person 2 have 2 legendaries. If it's a 1 in 10,000 drop rate, then it's a 1 in 1,000,000,000 chance for someone to have 2.

My 5 man premade alone has done enough to be statistically significant. Over 4500 boss kills between us and we haven't seen shit, not to mention an Emissary bag every day and 3 the first day.

30-40 guilds/people are statistically relevant when you're talking about an occurrence that has like a 1 in 30-40 billion chance of happening. Assuming no one in this thread is a liar, it's more likely that you would be struck by fucking lightning, twice, than for these drops to have played out how they have. In order for the data to match expectations, for every 1 person that has 2 legendaries, you would need to provide 100 counterexamples of people that have a single legendary.

In other words, something be fucked.

[-Nurot]

My guild's got a druid with 2 legendaries, a hunter with 2 legendaries, and a warrior with 1.

Same in my guild, medium pop realm, the lower population faction. The major guild on our side, and 1st for progress last expansion, and 1 person has 2 legendary items and another has 1. Everyone else is out of luck. Usually 35-40 people on at a time, and if I had to guess at least 200+ active.

[yamix]

It is statistically significant because it's astronomically unlikely. For every 100 people that have a single legendary, there should be 1 that has 2. If the drop chance is 1 in 100, then it's a 1 in 100,000 chance for someone to have 2. If it's a 1 in 1000 drop rate, then it's a 1 in 10,000,000 chance for 1 person 2 have 2 legendaries. If it's a 1 in 10,000 drop rate, then it's a 1 in 1,000,000,000 chance for someone to have 2.

My 5 man premade alone has done enough to be statistically significant. Over 4500 boss kills between us and we haven't seen shit, not to mention an Emissary bag every day and 3 the first day.

30-40 guilds/people are statistically relevant when you're talking about an occurrence that has like a 1 in 30-40 billion chance of happening. Assuming no one in this thread is a liar, it's more likely that you would be struck by fucking lightning, twice, than for these drops to have played out how they have. In order for the data to match expectations, for every 1 person that has 2 legendaries, you would need to provide 100 counterexamples of people that have a single legendary.

In other words, something be fucked.

Not sure that something is broken, or if this is intended behaviour, but something does seem to work in a way we don't expect.
Also, I've seen a video of someone struck by lightning twice, again, not that it's terribly common, but... possible.
To contribute, my guild has probably around 30 active at the moment and I know of 1 person with 1 legendary, and it's the 15% proc on CC ring - our boomkin got it week one. Just checked the log and I see no further legendaries in the last week.

[yeto]

It is statistically significant because it's astronomically unlikely. For every 100 people that have a single legendary, there should be 1 that has 2. If the drop chance is 1 in 100, then it's a 1 in 100,000 chance for someone to have 2. If it's a 1 in 1000 drop rate, then it's a 1 in 10,000,000 chance for 1 person 2 have 2 legendaries. If it's a 1 in 10,000 drop rate, then it's a 1 in 1,000,000,000 chance for someone to have 2.

My 5 man premade alone has done enough to be statistically significant. Over 4500 boss kills between us and we haven't seen shit, not to mention an Emissary bag every day and 3 the first day.


30-40 guilds/people are statistically relevant when you're talking about an occurrence that has like a 1 in 30-40 billion chance of happening. Assuming no one in this thread is a liar, it's more likely that you would be struck by fucking lightning, twice, than for these drops to have played out how they have. In order for the data to match expectations, for every 1 person that has 2 legendaries, you would need to provide 100 counterexamples of people that have a single legendary.

In other words, something be fucked.

how do you get to 100,000 form 1 in 100^2?

[shonist]

the prot warrior of my guild has 2, anyone of us have one. only him, and 2 on the same day -.-

[Deleted]

4 legendaryes, two of them on same guy.