Republican Election 2016 - Donald Trump Megathread [OFFICIAL]

[Celarent]

I am and am not surprised something like this was released so early. Clinton would want to stop Trump from skating along through everything thrown at him since Monday before last, and shock drops on her have started and will continue.

Thing is, on one hand it's preaching to the choir. Dems and NeverTrumpers will be scolding, but. . . they're out of the picture. The first step almost anyone takes in declaring for Trump is acknowledging that he's an ass, and the rest will rationalize. This isn't Ted Cruz. This is the guy who has had multiple wives and puts his name on everything. And it's oldish at 11 years, which doesn't make it irrelevant but does make people think back in their own lives to when they've heard this talk before. And how it's just kind of a thing unless you're sheltered.

Also - surely Clinton realizes this? - her husband changed the paradigm about personal and political life with the Lewinsky scandal. At best, Bill is seen by the public as "that lovable hillbilly horndog," and at worst has a floating rap sheet for sexual violence. So her "This man cannot be president" tweet signature on the release either assumes people have no memory or reveals she didn't think this through. Trump's as teflon as Bill, and Michael Moore was right - a lot of voters want somebody, anybody to be a battering ram (Molotov per Moore) aimed at D.C.

When Trump actually prepares, he's got a good memory. If he's been pushed, Sunday could see an exhaustive list of assault claimants and encounters tossed into public discourse in a way no GOPer ever has, and Clinton's reflexive "save me, entourage" automaton smile. Conversation probably shifts hard away Monday.

[Gaidax]

Also - surely Clinton realizes this? - her husband changed the paradigm about personal and political life with the Lewinsky scandal. At best, Bill is seen by the public as "that lovable hillbilly horndog," and at worst has a floating rap sheet for sexual violence. So her "This man cannot be president" tweet signature on the release either assumes people have no memory or reveals she didn't think this through. Trump's as teflon as Bill, and Michael Moore was right - a lot of voters want somebody, anybody to be a battering ram (Molotov per Moore) aimed at D.C.

He will basically shoot himself with that, just you wait for Sunday.

There are 2 simple truths here:

1. People are not voting for the spouse of the candidate
2. Whatever he will throw at her about Bill Clinton can be reflected back simply by acknowledging he did wrong and that US should not make same mistake second time.

The idea that Hillary is going to go out of her way to defend her husband is infantile at best, I'm not even talking about the fact that she can simply throw a couple of one-liners and this overgrown child - Donald will again get off the track and stumble going defensive as he likes.

Heck, I am not even sure it's in his interest to grill her on that - she is the injured party and throwing trash on cheated woman will certainly not be in his interests, his standing with women voters is shit as is and it's about to get even worse if she spins this in becoming a victimized woman in the debate.


Basically, "you are an asshole" is much stronger argument than "your husband is an asshole", it's plain obvious. I'm not even talking about the other ammo she has with whole taxes deal and the women as a whole.

[Breccia]

The more liberals cry and throw a hissy fit over this guy the more i want to vote for him.

Um....it's the GOP having the hissy fit, dude. Cruz, Priebus, etc etc. The Democrats are mostly laughing hysterically.

[Gaidax]

Um....it's the GOP having the hissy fit, dude. Cruz, Priebus, etc etc. The Democrats are mostly laughing hysterically.

I really wonder how GOP is going to wash this shit off once he loses... expel him? Lay low and forget the whole thing ever happened and hope US population is dumb enough to do so too (well they are it seems)?

[Heltoray]

And there are still people defending him.
What the actual fck...

[Celarent]

I think you jumped on what I wrote to deflect, Gaidax, and missed the point. (Also may not be as clear to those under 35.) Bill Clinton changed the personal standard for presidents by being president and remaining president, taking damage only for lying under oath - not the sex - and being slightly radioactive during the 2000 election. This is irrespective of Hillary Clinton condoning Bill's behavior, and the weak moral position it puts her in. This is literally just what Americans expect a president can or cannot be. Thus, "haha, sex comments! Gone!" is overambitious.

[Spectral]

The Democrats are mostly laughing hysterically.

I'm sure many of the strategists and other career political operatives are, but a lot of rank and file Democrats are engaging in an awful lot of bed-wetting over the possibility of Trump winning. There are a decent number of people that are genuinely upset about it.

[Gaidax]

I think you jumped on what I wrote to deflect, Gaidax, and missed the point. (Also may not be as clear to those under 35.) Bill Clinton changed the personal standard for presidents by being president and remaining president, taking damage only for lying under oath - not the sex - and being slightly radioactive during the 2000 election. This is irrespective of Hillary Clinton condoning Bill's behavior, and the weak moral position it puts her in. This is literally just what Americans expect a president can or cannot be. Thus, "haha, sex comments! Gone!" is overambitious.

In any case, I just do not see how he can mount effective offense based on that, especially against Clinton who seems to be well prepared to handle this. I will be surprised if Sunday won't end up a decisive victory for Clinton there.

Trump's position is very weak and vulnerable with 2 scandalous stories unfolding since the start of October. It does not matter whether he was right or wrong, but the whole no taxes paid deal resonates strongly with voters, even if it was legitimate, while the whole women case is a serious fuckup on his part that is literally indefensible (I certainly hope he won't go the "everyone doing this" lane, as it is just bad).

[Spectral]

I really wonder how GOP is going to wash this shit off once he loses... expel him? Lay low and forget the whole thing ever happened and hope US population is dumb enough to do so too (well they are it seems)?

Probably the same way parties have always handled failed candidates. Hell, it's not like Trump is even likely to fail on the same level that this guy did:



The idea that the GOP will need to make amends and repent its sins as a result of running a guy that'll lose by a pretty normal margin is pretty silly.

[Mafic]

Why are people falling for this trap and not discussing the tax issues with Trump aka he paid no taxes anymore? Is the media and people that easily distracted?

[Jtbrig7390]

How anyone can defend him at this point is beyond me.

While we all know he was a womanizer this just proves it. He shouldn't have ran for president in the first place. It will take Hilary dying or getting arrested in order for him to win.

Ill be impressed if he even shows up at the next debate. Anderson Copper is going to destroy him and ill be laughing the whole time. Don't get me wrong both Hilary and Trump are shit for the job but Hilary is the lesser of the two evils.

There isn't a snowballs chance in hell of him winning now. He has fully lost the woman's vote.

Edit: Also loved how he tried to go "Well ya I said it but bill said worse". What in the flying fuck does bill have to do with anything.

[Spectral]

You really think he'll lose by a "normal" margin? I think he'll lose by at least a 25 point difference and it'll be one of the biggest landslides in history.

If there a decently reliable, anonymous way to make this bet, I'd bet as much money as you'd be willing to put up. I'd peg the chance that it'll be a 25 point margin (would require 60-35 vote if 5 percent are third party) at <0.1%.

Even getting to double digits is pretty unlikely considering that the best polls-plus models are at ~4-5% currently.

If this is your honest projection, you seriously should bet a huge amount of money on Clinton somewhere.

[Breccia]

Why are people falling for this trap and not discussing the tax issues with Trump aka he paid no taxes anymore? Is the media and people that easily distracted?

Oh, the debate is still coming. Just because most people aren't talking about it right now, doesn't mean it's going away.

[pateuvasiliu]

but Hilary is the lesser of the two evils.

Getting people killed and compromising national security is less evil than cheating on your wife?

[Breccia]

Ill be impressed if he even shows up at the next debate. Anderson Copper is going to destroy him

Well
a) eh said in that "apology" that he was going to, possibly as Chris Christie held him at bridgepoint
b) it's a town hall style meeting, I'm not sure Cooper has a lot of avenues to "destroy" him, but he'll be zero help to Trump that's for sure.

[Jtbrig7390]

Getting people killed and compromising national security is less evil than cheating on your wife?

You can't prove she got anyone killed. Also do you expect Trump to be able to run emails better? He can't even run his dam twitter account.

All most have with Hilary is accusations, but we all know Trump is a tool.

[Jtbrig7390]

He can't figure out how to be discrete when mic'd. How can we trust him with national security if he will talk about sexually assaulting women while being recorded by NBC?

Right......

[Celarent]

In any case, I just do not see how he can mount effective offense based on that,

His response to judgment of his actions is either contrition (which he's done this morning, to whatever end) or defiance (which he, unlike most others, can probably pull off if he needs to). Again, however, a combination of the paradigm and Trump's known quantity makes it difficult to expand to a question of qualifications, however much Clinton desires.

Bringing up Bill's darker side and Hillary's silence on skirt-chasing and complicity in political cleanup, meanwhile, is tu quoqe as a response to 2005. (Tu quoque works often in politics, but that's beside the point.) However, on the larger issue, it's a fair point to make on handling "bimbo eruptions" and victim-shaming, and how that squares with Hillary's advertised persona (note: Hillary's also a known quantity, which is why she's had trouble breaking 45%).

[Breccia]

He can't figure out how to be discrete when mic'd. How can we trust him with national security if he will talk about sexually assaulting women while being recorded by NBC?

Are you talking about the time he walked out of his very first briefing ever, talking about a video he didn't see about a deal with Iran that wasn't what he said it was? Or the time he said intelligence officials were frustrated by their "body language" that they weren't allowed to make policy? Or is this about Trump's obvious Manafort-shaped ties to Russia?

[Threndsa]

I really wonder how GOP is going to wash this shit off once he loses... expel him? Lay low and forget the whole thing ever happened and hope US population is dumb enough to do so too (well they are it seems)?

I really wonder how GOP is going to wash this shit off once he loses... expel him? Lay low and forget the whole thing ever happened and hope US population is dumb enough to do so too (well they are it seems)?

Anyone not heavily involved with the campaign will just claim they were being loyal to the choice of their party. Which will be enough for some people. They don't really need to "expel" Trump because he was never really part of the party before the election. Trump goes back to being a billionaire asshat, who probably makes a lot of money off his loss, and the GoP are left picking up the pieces.

I think a lot of the more strongly involved individuals are going to have some fences to try and mend if they ever want to go anywhere. GOP needs to seriously look at restructuring through if it wants to win another presidential election. Starting with ousting, or at least ostracizing, some of the more wackadoodle members.