Mage fireball crit chance bugged? b(logs)

[aesthir]

Hey guys,

I've been looking at my logs to improve my play, and I've noticed that on average, my fireball seems to crit way less than my actual crit chance in game.

The reason for this post is to check whether others have also noticed this in their logs, or if I am maybe missing something obvious.

My crit chance is 62%, and simming myself shows that my fireball should have an 74% crit rate (variance around that obviously). However, over all our encounter on today's raid, my fireball crit 48%logs today. I am assuming here that Critical mass is not reflected in the 62% crit in your char screen. Therefore, due to both critical mass and enhanced pyrotechnics, I would expect my fireballs to on average crit MORE than 62% (i.e. like the 74% shown by the sim).

If I check other logs from our farm raid, my fireball crit 55%, which is better but still to low, especially considering the 74% crit rate in sims Farm raid logs

Pyroblast crits seem to be accurately reflected by the sims.
I have a feeling that one of the passive abilities is not working correctly, resulting in a decreased fireball crit %.
When checking logs of other mages on warcraftlogs, it seems to me that even the top ranking ones, often have fireball crit %'s lower than what you would expect based on the passive talents and their gear.

Any thoughts? Please no RNG bro comments, I'm the same guy who made the original post about legendary items droprate being bugged and as I said then: this post is to discuss and highlight a potential problem.

[waat]

yours seems really low

just looked through a few recent logs and i'm 75-80% crits on fireballs overall, and my crit chance on paperdoll is 60%

[Charge me Doctor]

Can't confirm or deny, but i often notice 3+ stacks of "bad luck protection" of fireball buff while having 60%+ (depending on top card of crit trinket). Like, way more often that i should, CiS, fireball, fireball, fireball, fireball, CiS, fireball(crit). Maybe it's extreme case of being unlucky, but yesterday it happened, like, 5 times through various boss fights on m+, and skada logs gave me ~60% fireball crit chance, like it wasn't counting in critical mass.

Since i didn't really paid any attention outside of looking for excuses to be outdamaged by a feral on a boss fight to this issue, i'll look further into it today, since it's not only me who encountered this issue

[Deleted]

Interesting.. I will try to log tonight's raid and see how mine looks.

[Koraah]

Checked my logs from heroic EN last night, my char screen says 60% crit.
Over 750 casts of fireball exactly 60% crit.
I'll sim my char when I get home and compare

[Deleted]

Will try this myself, definitely sounds like critical mass modifier is not being applied to fireball by the early look of things.

[Belturone]

Did you happen to have taking over the Blast Furnace minor trait recently ? I could have sworn that this was blatantly messing with the overall critical chance of the ones affected by Critical Mass formerly.

Anyway, something seems to go awry each time characters are transitioning from an instance to another and altering the reliability of the stats in the process (like critical chance actually appearing like diminished in the character's sheet and through various monitoring tools when rapidly switching from one set to another and entering new instanced areas).

This is anecdotally felt, for the record.

[aesthir]

Did you happen to have taking over the Blast Furnace minor trait recently ? I could have sworn that this was blatantly messing with the overall critical chance of the ones affected by Critical Mass formerly.

Anyway, something seems to go awry each time characters are transitioning from an instance to another and altering the reliability of the stats in the process (like critical chance actually appearing like diminished in the character's sheet and through various monitoring tools when rapidly switching from one set to another and entering new instanced areas).

This is anecdotally felt, for the record.

Yea, I've got blast furnace. Some very anecdotal evidence but if I hit the raid boss training dummy with ONLY fireball (i.e. not a normal rotation) for 10minutes, I did end with 73% crit (i.e. pretty close to the simmed 74%).
I just don't seem to be anywhere near that value in actual raid logs though :/

[SirreASDF]

Err, in the logs OP linked, if you click the arrow next to fireball it shows 67.8% for the first log and 72.4 on the second? It seems to clump up unstable magic and Conflagration (which seems like they cannot crit), into the number shown on the top Fireball row..

Now, I don't play a mage, and I have no real idea how Fire works, but could that be it?

[Obsession]

Err, in the logs OP linked, if you click the arrow next to fireball it shows 67.8% for the first log and 72.4 on the second? It seems to clump up unstable magic and Conflagration (which seems like they cannot crit), into the number shown on the top Fireball row..

Now, I don't play a mage, and I have no real idea how Fire works, but could that be it?

That has a lot to do with it, he's at ~68% crit in logs on fireball.

[aesthir]

Yep thats it, thanks!
Whelp, that was silly, had no idea unstable magic would be clumped under it...