Baltic states and Russia : is there a real risk ?

[caervek]

the threat of Russia's break up in the next 15 years+ is as big a threat to American security as can be quantified.

Good job the chances of that happening are so ridiculously low that it's not even worth preparing for then

[Fadeslol]

Well Skroe, you're trying to argue the American military was ever focused on being efficent and productive and not just a large money making scheme by Miltairy companies.

Edit: Also, External Steel production comes 90% from Russia, as Chinese steelworks are corrupt, cannot make fit to order and usually just buy Russian Steel they can pawn off at a higher price.

Actually Working with Russia would be more profitable than feeding the corrupt Chinese economy.

After all, I never heard of Russians being chewed up by escalators.

Well we know Gulf of Tonkin and and WMDs were both lies and hey they put us into 2 wars.

[Deleted]

The gravest mistake the West can make is to assume that the thinking of Russian supremacists would follow conventional logic and reason. They don't care about their reputation or economical impacts. They are literally bullies who gain twisted pleasure from ruining the lives of other people.

Do you get your news from comic books? Serious question.

[Deleted]

1550 nuclear weapons, a state of decline, and an aggressive foreign policy.

There is history behind this. When the Soviet Union broke up, the United States and Europe worked exceptionally hard to contain the spread of ex-Soviet nuclear weapons and also contain the spread of the technical expertise of ex-Soviet engineers and scientists. The nightmare scenario is that a bankrupt Russian state would be unable to pay everyone in the USSR's employ and nuclear, biological, chemical and other weapons experts would find themselves free agents, and aggressively courted by rogue states (especially North Korea, Iraq and Iran at the time) to kick start their own weapons programs.

Many joint Russian-West science and engineering programs came as a direct result of this in what amounted to a "keep the Russians in their jobs" program. Take for example, the American Atlas V, powered by the Russian RD-180. Why would the US do this? Because a rocket engine for a space vehicle is also a rocket engine for a ballistic missile, and we need a lot of space vehicles. Or the ESA-Russian Mars 96 failed mission. Same thing. Or utilizing Russian plutonium for American nuclear reactors.

If Russia breaks up like the USSR did in years ahead, there will be a similar scramble for what remains of their technical talent, in addition to successor states possessing arms and industry like Ukraine did. One of the highest priorities of US foreign policy is to contain the spread of nuclear weapons and the knowledge of how to make them. Thus, the threat of Russia's break up in the next 15 years+ is as big a threat to American security as can be quantified.

But you're arguing that going down this path that is causing Russia to break up is a good thing. How about, I know this may be shocking, America stops trying to kill an economy it's afraid of dying.

This is literally America's political meddling hitting itself in the ass. You have had decades to make Russia an ally and you have a great opportunity with Putin being the most Pro-west person in Russian Politics since forever.

Or are you utterly convinced without direct Military and economic strangleholds, the evil commie USSR will return in the same way the Evil British Empire might?

[Fadeslol]

I don't mean to be rude but why don't you, just focus on China then. We kinda have Russia more than covered over in Europe, we, well, we don't need you.

I know this flies in the face of the Team America World Police protectors of the world etc doctrine that has been drill into most Americans over the years but we honestly do not need your help to contain or if required defeat Russia. Your politicians just make a big fuss about it because it's an easy way to fund things and because it avoids offending Chinese relations why outing them as your real threat/rival.

Russia is doing nothing to the US. We need to focus on China before they get more out of control. I don't want to be team police, i want to kill ISIS, put China in check and have peace throughout the world

[Skroe]

First i want to say i do respect you but i disagree

I'm not running out of ammo. EU means nothing to us and is dieing. We don't answer to the EU nor any country in the world.

I don't know how you figure what I said amounts to "answering to the EU" (which is in trouble, but isn't dying). It's a simple fact that Russia's largest trading partner, the EU, will not remove sanctions anytime soon. That has nothing to do with what the United States does or does not do. Even if the US removed all it's sanctions (it wont), and Europe kept theirs, the result would be the vice upon Russia's head would remain in place.





[QUOTE=Fadeslol;43681776]
"Trump can unilaterally vacate some of them, but will he expend the political capital to do so"
We don't know that, we will have to wait and see[/quote

No. We actually do know that, and I've l inked repeated articles to that effect with direct quites from Republican and democrats in Congress regarding their plans, and more than that, votes within the last two months, post election.

The anti-Russian feeling in the US government is historic in nature, and has only been renewed by Russian actions in Ukraine and Syria, coupled with Barack Obama's inept handling of both. Do you honestly believe even the election of Trump could get people to change their deeply held beliefs over what Russia represents to us? It won't. It won't do anything else.

Word on the street is, in March, Congress will slap Russia with even more sanctions. Congress is going to give Trump about a month before forcing his hand. You should read the things I linked carefully.

"Russia is not a winning bet, when even his own political allies consider them the enemy."
Russia is better than China. Russia hasnt done anything to us, China has. Also political allies thing is politics. People back stab eachother all the time.

Russia hasn't done anything to us you say?

Let me show you a map.



And this is out of date. You can put a big circle on top of Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean, and soon Iran as well.

Russia and it's proxies are building a wall, namely to keep the United States from being able to project power into Eurasia. Haven't done anything? Putin's agenda is to use area denial weaponry to essentially push the US back into North America. And keep in mind these weapons, like the S400, are designed specifically to defeat us.

Do you honestly think some faustian bargain fighting ISIS is worth the United States losing the freedom of action in Eurasia? That's insanity. That's selling the farm to buy a shed.

[Deleted]

Do you honestly think some faustian bargain fighting ISIS is worth the United States losing the freedom of action in Eurasia? That's insanity. That's selling the farm to buy a shed.

So tell me Skroe, Why are most of those missiles in Russia itself, and placed defensively around Russia, While America has done the exact opposite. No need to offend you, But Americans have been a detriment to Europe as much as Russia has during the latter half of the century. In fact, the current Immigration wave is entirely your fault.

[Slant]

Slant are you kidding me dude?
China is expanding in the South China Sea. They threaten Japan now. You're right about the bad blood.

"Unlike Russia, who just annexed a pretty hefty chunk from a sovereign nation."
Maybe the EU shouldn't encourage the over throw of an elected govt. That's what started everything. And Crimea was part of Russia and there was a vote. Granted it was done by the Russian Govt. Go in there and do another vote with US observers

"China's threat is financial and technological, if anything. But they're quite content to do that from their home soil. Military action not needed. If the US is worried about China, it's more about cyber warfare than traditional military. "
I'm not saying Military action, i'm saying putting them into check. Also their Military is up to date.

I'm not kidding you. China isn't "expanding". They're dealing with what they consider their own all along. You need to go back in history quite a few centuries, if not millenia, to see what places they call their own, but once you've done that, you have a pretty clear picture of what they're actually interested in. Hint: It's not Japan itself. Those rocks they're fighting about? Ironically, they're just that... rocks. You couldn't even live on them. Most of them anyway. This drama about "China pushing into the South China Sea" is a bit ridiculous, if you ask me. It's not even the same ballpark as European expansionism, you can squabble over it if you like, but this is not really worth talking about. The most interesting debate regarding that is still and will always be Taiwan. And it's a pretty good example on how the Chinese mind ticks.

Your spiel about the Crimea is getting old. Russia just made a grab and that's it. Blame the EU if you like, ignore the thousands of Ukrainians protesting for that change. Perhaps the EU didn't reject any political possibilities enough. But then, nobody told the EU that they should forbid another nation to make a democratic decision. Our bad. We'll make sure to conform to Russian imperialistic ideology from now on... on, right, we don't actually give two fucks about what Russia wants. Guess we'll continue to be the free Western world that doesn't let authoritarian regimes tell us what to do.

China's military is hardly up to date. And how else do you want to put them into check? The US is all about hardware and heavy equipment, China's got the upper hand in cyber warfare. Mostly because they got a headstart in professionalising hacking, while the US still seems unsure on how to approach the subject. I'm still waiting for that big "Chinese Gvt. hack" initiated from the US. There are cyberattack maps on the web that show real time data of these attacks, they go FROM China TO the US but rarely FROM the US TO China.

[Deleted]

I'm not kidding you. China isn't "expanding". They're dealing with what they consider their own all along. You need to go back in history quite a few centuries, if not millenia, to see what places they call their own, but once you've done that, you have a pretty clear picture of what they're actually interested in. Hint: It's not Japan itself. Those rocks they're fighting about? Ironically, they're just that... rocks. You couldn't even live on them. Most of them anyway. This drama about "China pushing into the South China Sea" is a bit ridiculous, if you ask me. It's not even the same ballpark as European expansionism, you can squabble over it if you like, but this is not really worth talking about. The most interesting debate regarding that is still and will always be Taiwan. And it's a pretty good example on how the Chinese mind ticks.

Your spiel about the Crimea is getting old. Russia just made a grab and that's it. Blame the EU if you like, ignore the thousands of Ukrainians protesting for that change. Perhaps the EU didn't reject any political possibilities enough. But then, nobody told the EU that they should forbid another nation to make a democratic decision. Our bad. We'll make sure to conform to Russian imperialistic ideology from now on... on, right, we don't actually give two fucks about what Russia wants. Guess we'll continue to be the free Western world that doesn't let authoritarian regimes tell us what to do.

China's military is hardly up to date. And how else do you want to put them into check? The US is all about hardware and heavy equipment, China's got the upper hand in cyber warfare. Mostly because they got a headstart in professionalising hacking, while the US still seems unsure on how to approach the subject. I'm still waiting for that big "Chinese Gvt. hack" initiated from the US. There are cyberattack maps on the web that show real time data of these attacks, they go FROM China TO the US but rarely FROM the US TO China.

I love how you're against Russia and Crimea but you're defending China's south sea grabs.

[The Emperor]

All this idiocity is just fear mongering, I have friends in Russia, they would never support annexation "out of pure malice" like some idiot said here, you must understand the events in Ukraine in context, and that is, The West actively supported the coup there, with the sOle reason of pissing off Russia and trying to cut off it from its once strategical partner, Ukraine.
That's why Crimea happened, Russia couldn't risk another Nato country at its border. Not because Putin is Hitler incarnate as warmongering liberals would have you believe

[Skroe]

But you're arguing that going down this path that is causing Russia to break up is a good thing. How about, I know this may be shocking, America stops trying to kill an economy it's afraid of dying.

This is literally America's political meddling hitting itself in the ass. You have had decades to make Russia an ally and you have a great opportunity with Putin being the most Pro-west person in Russian Politics since forever.

Or are you utterly convinced without direct Military and economic strangleholds, the evil commie USSR will return in the same way the Evil British Empire might?

I'm arguing it's an inevitable thing. Good or bad is irrelevant. There is no rescuing Russia from it's decline (which was the point in the very first link I posted on page one). It is something that is a fact and we need to construct policy to respond to that fact.

In the long term? Yes I think it is a very good thing. It would enable perhaps the final demilitarization of Europe, and the eventual removal of a strategic threat to the United States. But between now and then is a years of instability and grave danger.


If you think this is wise policy or not really has more to do if you prize stability as a sacred cow about all other things. Some people in US foreign policy do. I generally do not. I would say in fact one of the key failures of US foreign policy in the last 20 years is to place goals over the next 2-4 years above goals for the next 20-40. The US used to be the master of playing the long game. We got lousy at it.

When Russia breaks up, it will be the story of the decade and cause absolutely dangerous and wide reaching geopolitical upheavals. But a decade of that is probably better than dealing with a nuclear armed basket case in perpetuity. You want to know how Russia will be disarmed? Nuclear weapons are expensive. The smaller the Russian state gets, the less likely it is going to be able to afford it's nuclear arsenal. If the successor state to the Russian federation has 60 million people instead of 140 million, it'll find it's capacity to afford a nuclear arsenal, at best, in the low hundreds.

[Confucius]

nothing's gonna happen.

[caervek]

Your spiel about the Crimea is getting old. Russia just made a grab and that's it.

Russia didn't make a grab, Ukraine had a coup and in the confusion Crimea saw it's chance to escape and so held a referendum on reunification. People can complain that it could have been handled better (and it could have) but lets not forget that last time they held such a referendum Kiev sent in the military to depose their government and annex the region so I think we can excuse them for not waiting this time.

[Deleted]

All this idiocity is just fear mongering, I have friends in Russia, they would never support annexation "out of pure malice" like some idiot said here, you must understand the events in Ukraine in context, and that is, The West actively supported the coup there, with the sOle reason of pissing off Russia and trying to cut off it from its once strategical partner, Ukraine.
That's why Crimea happened, Russia couldn't risk another Nato country at its border. Not because Putin is Hitler incarnate as warmongering liberals would have you believe

It's people falling for the Pro-War Tactics again and again. Russia is a beaten horse yet we're still told about how they could destroy us at the push of a button. No shit, that's what nukes do, ALL the big boys have nukes, Why are we not scared of them too?

[Flarelaine]

I'm not kidding you. China isn't "expanding". They're dealing with what they consider their own all along.

Russians say the same about Crimea and the Baltics...

[Strear]

Maybe in Hungary, but not in places like Latvia and Crimea. I don't think a Hungarian should throw stones at that idea though.

Estonia, Latvia had more russian citizen after they became part of USSR, demographics show that. Even in Crimea, there were only 33 percent of russians in 1897 (65 % in 2014). So yes, of course " conquered " lands (mostly border countries) see lots of the " conquering " country people come to " assimilate " the new territory, and it's the actual chinese strategy with Tibet to drown it with chinese building the railway to send more " Han " there.
It's part of the matter in fact ... Some will use that argument " Yes but 30 % of the population is nationality, they are our brothers, let's take that brother-country back " and will ask their " brothers " to cry, claim they're not considered where they are, not equals ...

[Deleted]

I'm arguing it's an inevitable thing. Good or bad is irrelevant. There is no rescuing Russia from it's decline (which was the point in the very first link I posted on page one). It is something that is a fact and we need to construct policy to respond to that fact.

That's downright false. Open up the Gas routes again, trade with them for steel instead of China. BAM, we have a Russia whose Economy will be growing again and people like you won't need to worry about a desperate wolf eating his children.

Also, Russia breaking up into what exactly? At best, Russia might shrink, but Russia is a very old Political idea. It sounds like you very much think in the Cold War logic.

[Fadeslol]

[QUOTE=Skroe;43681882]I don't know how you figure what I said amounts to "answering to the EU" (which is in trouble, but isn't dying). It's a simple fact that Russia's largest trading partner, the EU, will not remove sanctions anytime soon. That has nothing to do with what the United States does or does not do. Even if the US removed all it's sanctions (it wont), and Europe kept theirs, the result would be the vice upon Russia's head would remain in place.

"Trump can unilaterally vacate some of them, but will he expend the political capital to do so"
We don't know that, we will have to wait and see[/quote

No. We actually do know that, and I've l inked repeated articles to that effect with direct quites from Republican and democrats in Congress regarding their plans, and more than that, votes within the last two months, post election.

The anti-Russian feeling in the US government is historic in nature, and has only been renewed by Russian actions in Ukraine and Syria, coupled with Barack Obama's inept handling of both. Do you honestly believe even the election of Trump could get people to change their deeply held beliefs over what Russia represents to us? It won't. It won't do anything else.

Word on the street is, in March, Congress will slap Russia with even more sanctions. Congress is going to give Trump about a month before forcing his hand. You should read the things I linked carefully.






Russia hasn't done anything to us you say?

Let me show you a map.



And this is out of date. You can put a big circle on top of Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean, and soon Iran as well.

Russia and it's proxies are building a wall, namely to keep the United States from being able to project power into Eurasia. Haven't done anything? Putin's agenda is to use area denial weaponry to essentially push the US back into North America. And keep in mind these weapons, like the S400, are designed specifically to defeat us.

Do you honestly think some faustian bargain fighting ISIS is worth the United States losing the freedom of action in Eurasia? That's insanity. That's selling the farm to buy a shed.

"No. We actually do know that, and I've l inked repeated articles to that effect with direct quites from Republican and democrats in Congress regarding their plans, and more than that, votes within the last two months, post election."
Congress under Obama. GOP control everything, things will change

"The anti-Russian feeling in the US government is historic in nature, and has only been renewed by Russian actions in Ukraine and Syria, coupled with Barack Obama's inept handling of both. Do you honestly believe even the election of Trump could get people to change their deeply held beliefs over what Russia represents to us? It won't. It won't do anything else."

Ukraine was caused by the EU and Syria, tell the west to stop backing ISIS and fight ISIS. Once you have the land secure, then you have the upper hand and the moral high ground to get Assad out of powers and pull the Russian troops back.

"Word on the street is, in March, Congress will slap Russia with even more sanctions. Congress is going to give Trump about a month before forcing his hand. You should read the things I linked carefully."
Congress is controlled by the GOP now, Ted Cruz is going to the Supreme Court and Trump will get another Trump Republication.

"Russia and it's proxies are building a wall, namely to keep the United States from being able to project power into Eurasia. Haven't done anything? Putin's agenda is to use area denial weaponry to essentially push the US back into North America. And keep in mind these weapons, like the S400, are designed specifically to[I] defeat us." We already have advanced weapons to beat the Russians and they know that. First you say Russia is nothing but now you're saying they are expanding i dont get it.

"Do you honestly think some faustian bargain fighting ISIS is worth the United States losing the freedom of action in Eurasia? That's insanity. That's selling the farm to buy a shed" China is a bigger threat to the Eurasia and if we ally with Russia we have nothing to worry about.

[Slant]

Russia didn't make a grab, Ukraine had a coup and in the confusion Crimea saw it's chance to escape and so held a referendum on reunification. People can complain that it could have been handled better (and it could have) but lets not forget that last time they held such a referendum Kiev sent in the military to depose their government and annex the region so I think we can excuse them for not waiting this time.

None of which has anything to do with the EU, so I don't really care. But yes, I guess your interpretation is valid. Especially the bit about how it could have been handled better.

[Skroe]

So tell me Skroe, Why are most of those missiles in Russia itself, and placed defensively around Russia, While America has done the exact opposite. No need to offend you, But Americans have been a detriment to Europe as much as Russia has during the latter half of the century. In fact, the current Immigration wave is entirely your fault.

Because Russia's defense strategy is "border defense" and the US's strategy is "forward defense."

Forward defense is congruent with the US's economic place in the world. As the world's largest economy and most powerful country, our interests are chiefly defined by our extremely wide economic interests, which are global in nature. So we've shaped a military to defend those interests over the decades, where those interests lie. US military power is first and foremost, a naval and aviation power, which allow it to ensure trade.

To put it another way, the manner in which the US conducts it's defense strategy, where our border so to speak, is the Russian border, rather than the coast of the US, is an emergent property of it's economic and political role in the world. As China rises over the next 20 years to challenge the United States' global position, we're likely to see the same thing of them, because them having such a defense strategy would be an emergent property of their position.