7.1.5 PTR - Fire Mage - Flamestrike Single Target - December 25th, 2016

[Pewpewwindeeps]

So, I did a lot of math on Flamestrike on PTR. A different thread sparked my interest and I had to find out for myself.

Skip to the bottom of this post for video proof that the Flamestrike single target build is legit.

For those of you that want to read some of the math that I did regarding the value of casting Flamestrikes no matter the situation, go ahead and read this whole post (maybe some of my math or assumptions are wrong, please correct me if you see any mistakes).

Flamestrike Total Damage Test
1) 255.8k Flamestrike, 22.9k Aftershocks, 310.4k Flame Patch, 43.4k Ignite = 632.5k total damage
2) 255.8k Flamestrike, 41.1k Aftershocks, 380.8k Flame Patch, 46.2k Ignite = 723.9k total damage
3) 255.8k Flamestrike, 48.7k Aftershocks, 512.0k Flame Patch, 47.4k Ignite = 863.9k total damage
4) 124.2k Flamestrike, 21.6k Aftershocks, 384.1k Flame Patch, 22.7k Ignite = 552.6k total damage
5) 124.2k Flamestrike, 43.5k Aftershocks, 357.8k Flame Patch, 26.1k Ignite = 551.6k total damage
6) 646.9k total damage
7) 760.0k total damage
8) 631.4k total damage
9) 685.7k total damage
10) 658.3k total damage
11) 680.1k total damage
12) 551.2k total damage
13) 779.8k total damage
14) 576.9k total damage
15) 549.7k total damage
16) 502.5k total damage
17) 683.3k total damage
18) 621.2k total damage
19) 552.4k total damage
20) 636.8k total damage

All of these are + 7.36k if using Conflagration Flare Up addition. We will not use Conflagration Flare Up to make Flamestrike look weakest as possible when using Flame Patch.

Pyroblast Total Damage Test
1) 216.9k Pyroblast, 33.8k Ignite = 250.7k total damage
2) 446.9k Pyroblast, 69.6k Ignite = 516.5k total damage
3) 216.9k Pyroblast, 33.8k Ignite = 250.7k total damage
4) 216.9k Pyroblast, 33.8k Ignite = 250.7k total damage
5) 446.9k Pyroblast, 69.6k Ignite = 516.5k total damage
6) 250.7k total damage
7) 250.7k total damage
8) 516.5k total damage
9) 250.7k total damage
10) 250.7k total damage
11) 250.7k total damage
12) 250.7k total damage
13) 250.7k total damage
14) 516.5k total damage
15) 516.5k total damage
16) 516.5k total damage
17) 250.7k total damage
18) 250.7k total damage
19) 516.5k total damage
20) 516.5k total damage

Average total damage for casting 1 Flamestrike = (632.5+723.9+863.9+552.6+551.6+646.9+760.0+631.4+685.7+658.3+680.1+551.2+779.8+576.9+549.7 +502.5+683.3+621.2+552.4+636.8)/20 = 642.0k average
Average total damage for casting 1 Pyroblast = (250.7+516.5+250.7+250.7+516.5+250.7+250.7+516.5+250.7+250.7+250.7+250.7+250.7+516.5+516.5 +516.5+250.7+250.7+516.5+516.5)/20 = 357.0k average

On average, casting Flamestrike instead of Pyroblast equates to 1.79 times more damage.

Say we cast 2 average Fireballs instead of a Flamestrike, and we weren't using Flame Patch talent and using Unstable Magic, and used Conflagration instead too (making Fireball the most OP it can be):

Unstable Magic Calculation for average = Fireball Damage * 0.5 * 0.25 = 12.5% extra Fireball damage
Conflagration Flare Up Calculation for average = 4 Conflagration Ticks per Fireball = 10% chance 4 times to deal 18.4k (as shown on my character on PTR) damage = 1.84k per tick at 4 ticks = 7.36k Flare Up per Fireball

Fireball Total Damage Test
1) 102.4k Fireball, 15.9k Ignite, 8.2k Conflagration + 12.8k Unstable Magic + 7.36k Flare Up = 146.7k total damage
2) 210.9k Fireball, 32.8k Ignite, 8.2k Conflagration + 26.4k Unstable Magic + 7.36k Flare Up = 285.7k total damage
3) 102.4k Fireball, 15.9k Ignite, 8.2k Conflagration + 12.8k Unstable Magic + 7.36k Flare Up = 146.7k total damage
4) 210.9k Fireball, 32.8k Ignite, 8.2k Conflagration + 26.4k Unstable Magic + 7.36k Flare Up = 285.7k total damage
5) 102.4k Fireball, 15.9k Ignite, 8.2k Conflagration + 12.8k Unstable Magic + 7.36k Flare Up = 146.7k total damage

92.3k DPS non-crit
179.7k DPS crit

Average total damage for casting 1 Fireball = (146.7+285.7+146.7+285.7+146.7)/5 = 202.3k

Average total damage for casting 2 Fireballs, then = 404.6k

Fireball is about half the cast speed of Flamestrike.

So, with my current cast times:
Flamestrike = 3.21s
Fireball = 1.59s
Pyroblast = 3.61s

Damage per second time would be:
642.0/3.21 = 200.0k DPS while casting Flamestrike
202.3/1.59 = 127.2k DPS while casting Fireball
357.0/3.61 = 98.9k DPS while casting Pyroblast

This all assumes that you will never get a Hot Streak proc.

However, the math is simple for calculating the benefits of using Hot Streak on Pyroblast or Flamestrike.

Hot Streak using 1 global cooldown means that each Pyroblast and Flamestrike would use their full amounts for damage per execution time, making Flamestrike 1.79 times more valuable than Pyroblast to use at instant speed.

Since Flamestrike cannot proc Hot Streak, the damage calculation is simple: Always 200.0k DPS.
The absolute best scenario for Hot Streaking is 2x Fireball crits into a Pyro that crits into a Fireball that crits into a Pyroblast that crits, etc.
So, start off with 2x Fireball into back and forth Pyroblasts and Fireballs forever.
Fireball = 1.59s cast + Pyroblast = 1 GCD cast (1.2s at 25% haste) means that in 2.79s you get 802.2k total damage contribution resulting in 287.5k DPS. At 100% crit rate. Let that sink in a little bit.

Hardcasting Fireballs with Hot Streak Pyroblasts that ALWAYS CRIT is only 1.43 times better than just hardcasting Flamestrikes.

Now look at the scenario where the average fire mage will be: 50% crit.

Let's say you already have the Hot Streak.
(Scenario 1)
Fireball Crit = 285.7k damage
Pyroblast Non-crit = 250.7k damage
Total = 536.4k damage per 2.79 seconds = 192k DPS

or

(Scenario 2)
Fireball Non-crit = 146.7k damage
Pyroblast Crit = 516.5k damage
Total = 663.2k damage per 2.79 seconds = 237.7k DPS

In scenario 1, in order to get back to the 287.5k DPS mark that always critting ensures, we would have to crit on two Fireballs in a row, and a crit Fireball by itself is only 179.7k DPS (285.7/1.59s cast time).
So we've spent, in scenario 1, doing the following:
2.79 seconds of 192k DPS.
3.18 seconds of 179.7k DPS.

This results in, scenario 1, of a net DPS of ((2.79s*192k)+(3.18s*179.7k)/5.97s) of combat time = (535.68+571.45)/5.97s = 185k DPS.
If we fail to crit on a single Fireball, our DPS drops down to 185k DPS for 5.97 seconds. We would be better off by 15k DPS to just be casting Flamestrikes should we ever fail to crit on a Fireball.

In scenario 2, in order to get back to the 287.5k DPS mark that always critting ensures, we would have to crit on just one Fireball, and a crit Fireball by itself is only 179.7k DPS.

In summary: For every Fireball that does not crit, we lose 107.8k DPS for 1.59 seconds from our peak DPS.

With our peak DPS of 287.5k DPS in full crit mode, the following would ensue:

(300 second fight full crits)
----------------
86.250 Million damage at full crits = 287.5k DPS

(300 second fight one failure to crit)
----------------
(2.79s * 192k DPS) + (297.21s * 287.5k DPS) = 85.984 Million damage = 286.6k DPS

I lost 900 DPS just by not critting with only ONE Fireball. I don't know about you guys, but I don't crit with my Fireballs.....quite a lot on PTR.


One more PTR example data:

Single Target
Only casting Flamestrike for 3 minutes: 35.3 million contribution from Flamestrike = 196k DPS (this counts only Flamestrike, Flame Patch, Aftershocks, and Ignite)
Only casting Fireballs and Pyroblasts(when procced) for 3 minutes: 32.954 million contribution from Fireball + Pyroblast = 183k DPS (this counts Fireball, Pyroblast, Ignite, Unstable Magic, Conflagration, and Conflagration Flare Up)

3 Minute Test Using Full Rotations (to the best of my ability, all the same gear)
Flamestrike (Conflagration, Shimmer, Rune of Power, Flame On, Frenetic Speed, Flame Patch, Kindling) = 426k DPS
Normal (Conflagration, Shimmer, Rune of Power, Flame On, Frenetic Speed, Unstable Magic, Kindling) = 414k DPS
Flamestrike Modified (Pyromaniac, Shimmer, Rune of Power, Flame On, Frenetic Speed, Flame Patch, Meteor) = 463k DPS

Don't believe me? Try it. Use the [@cursor] macro for Flamestrike and see for yourself.

Patch 7.1.5 is on the background downloader already. This might make it live, and it will be gross if that's the case. I am 100% sure that this is unintended.

Video proof of the ridiculousness: https://youtu.be/COXwhxLqUoE

[Methnor]

Thank you for this testing and information, got a question though:

Only casting Fireballs and Pyroblasts(when procced) for 3 minutes: 32.954 contribution from Fireball + Pyroblast = 183k DPS (this counts Fireball, Pyroblast, Ignite, Unstable Magic, Conflagration, and Conflagration Flare Up)

During this testing, did you use Fire Blast to proc Hot Streak, or was this just casting Fireballs and using Pyro if you happen to naturally crit twice?

[Pewpewwindeeps]

Thank you for this testing and information, got a question though:



During this testing, did you use Fire Blast to proc Hot Streak, or was this just casting Fireballs and using Pyro if you happen to naturally crit twice?

This was only if I naturally got Hot Streak from back-to-back Fireballs. Fire Blast wasn't used in that instance of testing.

Edit: It should be stated that a test without using Fire Blast is not a good indication of the full capability of the rotation, but as I had not used Fire Blast with the Flamestrike-only test, I wanted to keep the minimalistic nature of the test in tact through both "rotations".

[Justpassing]

That's a lot of math...



On topic: Deffo get nerfed.

[Pewpewwindeeps]

That's a lot of math...



On topic: Deffo get nerfed.

LOL! And proud of it! :P

But yeah, I can't see this making it live, and if it does....well....I would be ashamed to be the person responsible for this hitting live servers.

[Karon]

I'd rather play with flamestrike as my main ability than playing frost or arcane.

Nice find, Gillian! xD

[Deleted]

Great find.. and totally hilarious... at least we shouldn't go oom with this spec lol

[Bonkaz]

Lmao this build just goes to show how much of a mess fire mage is as of the current PTR build

[Deleted]

That's a lot of math...



On topic: Deffo get nerfed.

It's funny you post a video of the Simpsons after commenting on the math. Singh wrote a book about the many mathematic references in the Simpsons.

On topic: Without delving into the maths, it is obvious that fire is utterly broken right now. I hope they fix this quickly.

[pkm]

Better get those m+ carries in before its too late!

[Deleted]

Thanks for this post, it's always refreshing to see a well reasoned post among the countless "umg fier deps is god or arcnane?1!". Hopefully developers pick up on this and do something about it and I echo the sentiment that Fire is in a really precarious position where a change ripples through the spec to affect something else in an unexpected way, like you have shown here. The spec needs a pretty big overhaul if they want to make int>crit.

[Bloodmagix]

Exciting stuff. Not rolling Frost or Arcane, so this gives me a little more hope.

Thanks for sharing and doing the math.

[Woobels]

Yeah, I posted this in another thread (probably sparked the interest here) and wasn't really capable of explaining it properly, thank you for this.

People on Discord are still in the process of fine tuning this playstyle, but right now this is what you do, Flamestrike's SP scaling is just way too fucking high.

[sjuk]

"Duh calm down guys its only ptderp not final yet uh fire will be op"

.once again blizz show their real face..

[Geldor]

Exciting stuff. Not rolling Frost or Arcane, so this gives me a little more hope.

Thanks for sharing and doing the math.

Why would this specifically give you hope? That must be 100% unintended. They'd never want an AOE spell being better on ST. So likely it gets nerfed and we'll be not better off. If not on the PTR then one, two weeks into the new patch, when people are running M+ with this.

The only scenario this would be good for us, is if they intend to bring the single target rotation above the FS spam. And that's kind of doubtful.

[skitzin]

I definately think this will get adjusted at some point to remove it from fire's ST damage.

[Bloodmagix]

Why would this specifically give you hope? That must be 100% unintended. They'd never want an AOE spell being better on ST. So likely it gets nerfed and we'll be not better off. If not on the PTR then one, two weeks into the new patch, when people are running M+ with this.

The only scenario this would be good for us, is if they intend to bring the single target rotation above the FS spam. And that's kind of doubtful.

Ah my bad, I'll just put everything down then and post that they will fix it. Sorry for having a tiny glimmer of hope that it's not.

[Pewpewwindeeps]

Yeah, I posted this in another thread (probably sparked the interest here) and wasn't really capable of explaining it properly, thank you for this.

People on Discord are still in the process of fine tuning this playstyle, but right now this is what you do, Flamestrike's SP scaling is just way too fucking high.

Thank you incredibly much for bringing this to my attention! If it wasn't for you, I don't think I would have even tried this playstyle, let alone crunched some numbers myself.

I had to get the word out to people. I think myself, and mostly every mage out there really truly hopes that Blizzard catches this before it goes live. (although.....I mean.....it's OP.....shhhhh, let's use it for a while *winky face* )

[Geldor]

Ah my bad, I'll just put everything down then and post that they will fix it. Sorry for having a tiny glimmer of hope that it's not.

haha, was not meant to be mean, but better hope for other things : ). This one, I guess all you can hope for is that you can use it for a few weeks, until this becomes common knowledge and 99% of fire mages are using FS and FP.

[Deleted]

Yeah, I posted this in another thread (probably sparked the interest here) and wasn't really capable of explaining it properly, thank you for this.

People on Discord are still in the process of fine tuning this playstyle, but right now this is what you do, Flamestrike's SP scaling is just way too fucking high.

it isnt really flamestrike, its the fact that you add a stacking 400% sp over 8 sec to it as well in flamepatch.