UK in 2030: older, more unequal and blighted by Brexit, report predicts

[Tennis]

Britain faces a decade of disruption after Brexit with low growth, stagnating incomes for the poor and the public finances at breaking point, according to a bleak analysis by a leading thinktank.

The report, Britain in the 2020s, by the Institute of Public Policy Research, says Brexit will “profoundly reshape the UK … painful trade-offs are almost certain. Growth is expected to be lower, investment rates worse, and the public finances weaker as a result of Brexit.”

The analysis, which draws on data from the OECD, the ONS and numerous economists and researchers, forecasts a 30% increase in the number of over-65s in the population by 2030, and a doubling of the number of over-85s. It predicts that the proportion of the population that is non-white will climb to more than one in five within 12 years.

By 2030 households will on average be £1,700 worse off per year than they would have been if Britain had stayed in the EU, with a persistently falling currency driving up prices and hitting the living standards of poorer people the hardest, according to the report.

Low-income households are predicted to see their earnings rise by just 2% between now and 2030, leaving them little better off than a generation before. Meanwhile, the average FTSE 100 chief executive’s pay is forecast to soar to £9.5m by 2030 – 350 times the median income, up from a multiple of 144 today.

The report’s author, Mathew Lawrence, said the IPPR had taken a neutral position during the run-up to the EU referendum, and the report simply highlighted how Brexit would exacerbate challenges around inequality and low productivity that the UK was already facing.

New barriers to trade after Britain leaves the EU are likely to drive the currency down and to increase costs, the report says.

Government finances may buckle under the strain of NHS and pension spending as Britain ages and Brexit reduces the tax base. The 65-plus population will rise to 15.4 million by 2030, from 11.6 million today, while the working-age population will rise by just 3%.


The IPPR predicts a £13bn shortfall in the funding of adult social care alone by 2030 as the government struggles to finance care for elderly people in their homes.

Pressure on schools, hospitals and infrastructure will also increase as Britain’s population continues to grow rapidly despite a short-term post-Brexit reduction in EU migration. The report forecasts that the UK will have the fastest growing population of any major country in Europe, overtaking France’s population by 2030 and Germany’s in the late 2040s.

The IPPR also predicts a more diverse country, with the non-white proportion rising from 14% in 2011 to 21% by 2030 and to more than a third of the population by 2050.

Vast numbers of workers in the UK face losing their jobs as automation progresses, with the economy soon hitting “peak human” before robots and artificial intelligence take over, the IPPR argues.

It forecasts that 2m jobs in retail will disappear by 2030 and 600,000 will go in manufacturing.

Britain in the 2020s will continue to see a hollowing out of middle-income jobs, with large numbers of well-paid jobs in a few industries – largely in London and the south-east – offset by a growing precariat of poorly paid, often self-employed workers. “There will be more self-employed workers in the 2020s than public sector employees,” the report says.

It says the rest of the world also faces a slowdown in economic growth, partly as population growth slows and partly because of climate change.

It also forecasts crises for China. By 2030 the country will have 17 of the top 50 cities in the world ranked by GDP, but its rapidly ageing population, credit bubbles and political uncertainty will undermine its rise and ensure the US remains the dominant global power.

Keir Starmer MP, the shadow Brexit secretary, said: “This report shows once again the clear dangers of a hard Brexit and the importance of ensuring we get the best possible Brexit deal that protects jobs, the economy and living standards.

“It also reminds us that there are wider and profound challenges facing the Britain in the years and decades to come - both to our economy, society and our place in the world. Labour has an obligation to future generations to find progressive and effective responses, and to help bring Britain back together after a deeply divisive referendum.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business...eport-predicts

Wow. A really stark look at the future. I can't feel much sympathy for them when they literally chose this path. Hopefully this can be a lesson to others.

[Spectral]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instit...olicy_Research

The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) is a leftwing[1] thinktank based in London in the UK.

A leftwing thinktank is against Brexit? Holy shit, that's news!

[Deleted]

Anyone surprised (beside people that lives in UK) ? I think not.

[Tennis]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instit...olicy_Research

A leftwing thinktank is against Brexit? Holy shit, that's news!

Ha nice try with your misdirect but this is hardly the only think tank predicting doom.

[tehealadin]

https://www.theguardian.com/business...eport-predicts

Wow. A really stark look at the future. I can't feel much sympathy for them when they literally chose this path. Hopefully this can be a lesson to others.

Yea, a whole 52% of those eligible to vote. Gives a clear, unambiguous look at the national feeling on the issue.

And yea, this will be a stark lesson to others. Do as you are told. Not by them, by us. Or else. Don't get me wrong- I think there is a lesson here. Just not the one you think it is. One that several other European countries may be about to not get either.

[TrumpIsPresident]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instit...olicy_Research

A leftwing thinktank is against Brexit? Holy shit, that's news!

I Googled mapped the address on that Wiki and it looks like the "think tank" /lulzroflz is being run out of an apartment building.

[FS-]

Wow. A really stark look at the future. I can't feel much sympathy for them when they literally chose this path. Hopefully this can be a lesson to others.

Lol. You're way too brainwashed by jewish media. Brexit is a step toward UK sovereignty, who has been since long hijacked by an alien elite that does not represent the will or interest of the people (aka EU).
I feel pity for you. I bet you feel like a social warrior of sort, but in reality you are a sheep walking into the lion's mouth with a smile. And, the worst part, you want to drag other people with you too!
Do us a favour and stop posting this self-loathe "news", please. Instead, go outside do some exercise and get in shape for when we need real men in the front line. We are at war and you're but a tool of the enemy. Wake the f*** up!

[tehealadin]

Lol. You're way too brainwashed by jewish media. Brexit is a step toward UK sovereignty, who has been since long hijacked by an alien elite that does not represent the will or interest of the people (aka EU).
I feel pity for you. I bet you feel like a social warrior of sort, but in reality you are a sheep walking into the lion's mouth with a smile. And, the worst part, you want to drag other people with you too!
Do us a favour and stop posting this self-loathe "news", please. Instead, go outside do some exercise and get in shape for when we need real men in the front line. We are at war and you're but a tool of the enemy. Wake the f*** up!

What have the Jews got to do with this?

[ranzino]

And if a leftist says "water is wet", it's a conspiracy of course ?
it may depend on hard/cold/soft Brexit and with our without scotland, but neither choice is without consequences. And as of now nothing grants Brexiteers the sun shines off their asses long or short term, sorry.

[Deleted]

Firstly nobody can accurately predict the future especially a decade so what's the point discussing

[Theodarzna]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instit...olicy_Research

A leftwing thinktank is against Brexit? Holy shit, that's news!

Whhaaaaaa..... are you telling me they might have a bias? But... but.......

[Tennis]

I Googled mapped the address on that Wiki and it looks like the "think tank" /lulzroflz is being run out of an apartment building.

You don't seem to have been to London there bruv. Most businesses are run out of apartments.

[Krawu]

It's what can be expected to happen when you opt out of global progress because of nationalistic populism and fearmongering.

[Aeula]

So basically all this article is based on is the word of some left wing armchair economists who foretell doom and gloom?

[FS-]

What have the Jews got to do with this?

Jews own the mainstream media (CNN, Google, Facebook, MTV...) and run the banks and government (EU). They highly encourage "left-wing" policies (which is basically communism, no borders) for the sake of their own interests, not the people. Do you think these groups care about "war refugees" or "social justice"? LOL! That's just how they disguise it in order to gain people's support. When in reality, they finance terrorism and encourage racism between races in the backstage. What they really want is an Europe with people without identity and without means of fighting back (basically capital slaves), that's why you see massive immigration in most EU nations, which slowly destroys a country from within as we already can see in Sweden or Germany. Contrary to what they say, this is no "accident". Divide and conquer.
All the while Israel itself embraces nationalism, of course #OpenBordersForIsrael

Brexit is a huge win for us and they are very pissed off about it, you can tell Fear is their weapon.

If you want more detailed info, I can send it to anyone via PM. MMO-C already banned me for it...


[Infracted]

[Deleted]

Jews own the mainstream media (CNN, Google, Facebook, MTV...) and run the banks and government (EU). They highly encourage "left-wing" policies (which is basically communism, no borders) for the sake of their own interests, not the people. Do you think these groups care about "war refugees" or "social justice"? LOL! That's just how they disguise it in order to gain people's support. When in reality, they finance terrorism and encourage racism between races in the backstage. What they really want is an Europe with people without identity and without means of fighting back (basically capital slaves), that's why you see massive immigration in most EU nations, which slowly destroys a country from within as we already can see in Sweden or Germany. Contrary to what they say, this is no "accident". Divide and conquer.
All the while Israel itself embraces nationalism, of course #OpenBordersForIsrael

Brexit is a huge win for us and they are very pissed off about it, you can tell Fear is their weapon.

If you want more detailed info, I can send it to anyone via PM. MMO-C already banned me for it...

That's some paranoia

[FS-]

That's some paranoia

That's the conclusion any sane person would arrive, after meticulous study in politics and economics. Ever asked yourself "Why?" stuff happen (WW2, 9/11, middle-east wars...). You should start now. Reality goes deeper than what they show you on TV

[Azadina]

Jews own the mainstream media (CNN, Google, Facebook, MTV...) and run the banks and government (EU). They highly encourage "left-wing" policies (which is basically communism, no borders) for the sake of their own interests, not the people. Do you think these groups care about "war refugees" or "social justice"? LOL! That's just how they disguise it in order to gain people's support. When in reality, they finance terrorism and encourage racism between races in the backstage. What they really want is an Europe with people without identity and without means of fighting back (basically capital slaves), that's why you see massive immigration in most EU nations, which slowly destroys a country from within as we already can see in Sweden or Germany. Contrary to what they say, this is no "accident". Divide and conquer.
All the while Israel itself embraces nationalism, of course #OpenBordersForIsrael

Brexit is a huge win for us and they are very pissed off about it, you can tell Fear is their weapon.

If you want more detailed info, I can send it to anyone via PM. MMO-C already banned me for it...

Because BS conspiracy theories aren't allowed.

[FS-]

Because BS conspiracy theories aren't allowed.

I see... everything that is not shown on mainstream media is conspiracy or "fake news". Okay...

[igualitarist]

Damn, what happened to the good ol' left, who used to be anti globalization and anti free trade ? Now, suddenly those things are good ?