Outlaw: 7.1.5 Optimal Roll the Bones Use

[Swol]

Updated 1-27 with rotation improvements and new tests!
With some rotation tweaks, legendary items have a much larger effect on the outcome of the simulations.

Hey all, it's been a while since I made a theorycraft post in the rogue forums. I've seen some threads here and there suggesting new logic for what the best buffs to keep on RtB are. A lot of folks are suggesting that you really want to roll until you get True Bearing, unless you get a really lucky 3 or 6 buff combo. So, I decided to gather a ton of data points to help answer the question.

First, I used an 880 ilvl rogue with no specific legendaries, set bonuses, or "special" trinkets. I overrode the stats such that all secondary stats were just about equal. Then, I changed the rotation to have three parameters in it:
Parameter 1: How many buffs will you keep rolling to obtain?
Parameter 2: Will you keep two buffs if you have Shark Infested Waters, regardless of True Bearing setting?.
Parameter 3: Will you keep any buff combination with True Bearing? 0 means no, 1 means yes.

A value of 2,0,0 for Parameter 1 and 2 and 3, respectively i: Roll until you get 2 buffs, don't ever save a single buff. A value of 2,0,1 would have you roll until you get 2 buffs OR True Bearing (meaning it would keep a single True Bearing buff). A value of 3,1,1 would roll until you get at least 3 buffs or any combination of 1 or 2 buffs with True Bearing or any 2 buff combo with Shark. A value of 3,0,1 will roll until you get a least 3 buffs or any combination of 1 or 2 buffs with True Bearing.

Then I ran a batch of simulations that varied those three parameters:
http://www.askmrrobot.com/wow/simula...db1aa8c649654d

You can see that rolling for at least 2 buffs is still the best, although saving a single True Bearing buff or not are almost the same damage. Rolling away a two buff combo that doesn't have True Bearing is a slight DPS loss. Rolling away a two buff combo that doesn't have True Bearing or Shark is also a DPS loss.

After some discussion the last couple days with folks in the rogue discord and subsequent posts in this thread, I've done a set of tests for the following conditions:
Greenskins/Quick Draw (Best is keep any 3 buffs or TB. Keeping any 2 buffs is arguably within margin of error):
http://www.askmrrobot.com/wow/simula...451f4288040a3e

Mantle/Ghostly Strike (Best is to keep any 3 buffs or TB)
http://www.askmrrobot.com/wow/simula...9d4ce44db0f250

Greenskins AND Mantle/Quick Draw (Best is to keep any 3 buffs or TB)
http://www.askmrrobot.com/wow/simula...19cdb669a91a36

Greenskins and Mantle and Convergence of Fates/Quick Draw (Best is to keep 3 buffs or TB)
http://www.askmrrobot.com/wow/simula...cef4f7c5e7837a

I also ran a test with greenskin/mantle and varied quick draw/ghostly strike and did some random stat samples to make sure that the stats I used in the simulations above didn't influence results. It looks like stats only had very minor influence on the results - there are a few stat combinations where you wouldn't want to ditch two buff combos, regardless of true bearing:
http://www.askmrrobot.com/wow/simula...7c496f3ed30bc5

So, I'm going to update our default outlaw rotation to use the following logic for Roll the Bones:

With no Legendaries:
Roll until you get True Bearing or two Buffs.

You might be able to get a very, very slight theoretical DPS increase by always going for two buffs, but, keeping True Bearing is so close that you'll never notice in-game and it will increase your quality of life.

With Mantle of the Master Assassin:
Roll until you get True Bearing or three Buffs.

The results from Greenskins were so close between rolling for 2 or 3 buffs that I'm keeping the suggestion at 2, since that is a lot less annoying to play. It seems like the item that really changes the logic is Mantle of the Master Assassin.

Feel free to hit me up with questions and I will try to answer them.

[Alfador]

Probably too complex for practical simming but as a matter of course wouldn't the logic on true bearing be somewhat situationally dependent? It's kind of an eyeball test but while I was still actively maining outlaw I kind of took the tack that I'd roll out of True Bearing in cases where I could not expect to fully or reliably take advantage of an extra Adrenaline Rush for example (near the end of fights, or in fights with noteworthy off-target time) and stay in it in the cases where I could.

[elfporn]

@Swol Does rtb use change with the bracers? The general thought is that TB becomes significantly more valuable with the legendary bracers than without, leading to fishing for TB or 3, or just TB itself.

[Swol]

@Swol Does rtb use change with the bracers? The general thought is that TB becomes significantly more valuable with the legendary bracers than without, leading to fishing for TB or 3, or just TB itself.

I ran my test with the bracers:
http://www.askmrrobot.com/wow/simula...c486f976d32d04


Still not seeing a gain by fishing so hard for True Bearing.
@Alfador: I've tried putting in more logic around True Bearing to roll it away if you won't get full AR or CotDB CDR from it... but that never seems to come out to a gain, on average. If someone has some clever logic they think would work, I'd certainly try it out.

[Deleted]

Try bracers+shoulders+Convergence of fates (trinket)+tripple fatebringer relics.

[Swol]

Try bracers+shoulders+Convergence of fates (trinket)+tripple fatebringer relics.

http://www.askmrrobot.com/wow/simula...1202cd0eb5eb91

Still not better to get rid of two buffs!

[Kuroii]

this has been known for a while ? that you always keep 2 buffs or TB? maybe for ask mr robot it hasnt been updated but it def has been like this for a while

[Zoopercat]

@Kuroii there are a lot of theories out there. One example of the TB/3 that was referenced can be found here: https://us.battle.net/forums/en/wow/...?page=1#post-2

Swol was also one of the people behind the early Roll the Bones buff analysis that set the 2 buff 'recommendation' in motion. Here's a blog post that talks about it, back from July.

Fyi: I know a lot of people don't recognize Swol's name. That's mostly because he does a ton of theorywork behind the scenes, and then I mention it to a few people who spread it from there. He doesn't care about getting credit, he just likes providing interesting information and tools. But he's super smart and loves to dig into these types of questions

[rtfmx9]

Swol,

did you have a chance to estimate how much of a dps loss is to use SnD instead or RtB since changes made in 7.1.5 to SnD energy regen? I've been hearing that it's huge loss but my experience has been that loss is negligible in realistic situations and rarely huge except in possible streak of lucky rolls (extremely rare case)?

Any opinion on this supported by some theorycrafting numbers would be appreciated. Thanks!

[Hodag]

Swol,

did you have a chance to estimate how much of a dps loss is to use SnD instead or RtB since changes made in 7.1.5 to SnD energy regen? I've been hearing that it's huge loss but my experience has been that loss is negligible in realistic situations and rarely huge except in possible streak of lucky rolls (extremely rare case)?

Any opinion on this supported by some theorycrafting numbers would be appreciated. Thanks!

This is a question that we need to discuss. 95+ parses will be difficult to pull off (or will they, once people start experimenting?), but it seems like SnD is totally viable ST and Cleave/AoE (especially Cleave/Aoe if you have gloves). Looking at the *very* few SnD users on NH right now, it's pulling 80-90%...consistently.

[Swol]

Here is a batch I ran on a character with greenskin, mantle, and convergence:
http://www.askmrrobot.com/wow/simula...c50638614fea14

I had it randomly sample 100 stat combos for Slice and Dice and Marked for Death as lvl 100 talent. There are some Slice and Dice data points that are within 2% of the best data point with Roll the Bones, so, depending on what you personally consider "viable" it seems like you could easily play with SnD now and do competitive damage. Seems like you'd want to go heavier on Mastery and try to dump Haste/Crit though.

[Hodag]

Here is a batch I ran on a character with greenskin, mantle, and convergence:
http://www.askmrrobot.com/wow/simula...c50638614fea14

I had it randomly sample 100 stat combos for Slice and Dice and Marked for Death as lvl 100 talent. There are some Slice and Dice data points that are within 2% of the best data point with Roll the Bones, so, depending on what you personally consider "viable" it seems like you could easily play with SnD now and do competitive damage. Seems like you'd want to go heavier on Mastery and try to dump Haste/Crit though.

Fantastic work, Swol. I'm a heroic raider, so within 2% is completely viable. Is there anyway to get stat weights for SnD, or is it pretty much going off of hunches from here?

[Deleted]

Some stuff i still dont like about this simulations:

- Secondary stats chosen for these sims are completly unwordly, nobody would ever gear like that
- not chosen Pistol Shot Talent even with bracers

Both changes the value of certain RtB buffs.

Also im missing the real parameter how its actually supposed to be played.
-> TB no reroll no matter of buff size
-> keep single SiW or any combination with it when artifact+adrush are in range to be used
-> no reroll on 3or higher buff size no matter which buffs

[Won7on]

Here is a batch I ran on a character with greenskin, mantle, and convergence:
http://www.askmrrobot.com/wow/simula...c50638614fea14

I had it randomly sample 100 stat combos for Slice and Dice and Marked for Death as lvl 100 talent. There are some Slice and Dice data points that are within 2% of the best data point with Roll the Bones, so, depending on what you personally consider "viable" it seems like you could easily play with SnD now and do competitive damage. Seems like you'd want to go heavier on Mastery and try to dump Haste/Crit though.

Very interesting. I think Nightblooming Frond would bring SnD even closer since that trinket stacks up insanely fast with the 100% attack speed. I'll have to give that a try.

FWIW, I think most people with Greenskin's run Quick Draw, though.

[Euphrum]

What you did the greenskin test without quick draw?

Could you test greenskin+ring please (with quick draw)

[rtfmx9]

I had it randomly sample 100 stat combos for Slice and Dice and Marked for Death as lvl 100 talent. There are some Slice and Dice data points that are within 2% of the best data point with Roll the Bones, so, depending on what you personally consider "viable" it seems like you could easily play with SnD now and do competitive damage. Seems like you'd want to go heavier on Mastery and try to dump Haste/Crit though.

Thanks for this analysis! It really is very helpful. From what I can tell it looks like mastery, versatility, crit, haste is the order for SnD. I wonder how all new NH trinkets play into this but those numbers look promising for those who want to avoid repeated single buff re-roll frustration and are not living on the top 1% edge of mythic raiding.

[Swol]

I ran another batch and added Quick Draw to the talent combos. Here are the results:
http://www.askmrrobot.com/wow/simula...1f685954416090

It looks like when you have Greenskin's, the DPS gap between Marked for Death and Slice and Dice is much more substantial. But, it still looks like you would want to run with Ghostly Strike when using Slice and Dice.

Here I ditched the special legendary items and Convergence of Fates trinket, and did the comparison again:
http://www.askmrrobot.com/wow/simula...ce138e70b9cdd4

In this one the gap between the two talents is much smaller.

[Feilong]

wow/simulator/report/d36e8fa027cf416c961202cd0eb5eb91

Still not better to get rid of two buffs!

Could you also run this logic comparison with Quick Draw talented? Thank you!

[elfporn]

Could you also run this logic comparison with Quick Draw talented? Thank you!

he did /10char

[Feilong]

he did /10char

Quick draw was run to compare SnD vs MFD, but AFAIK it was done with the 2 buff or TB logic. I don't see a comparison between 3 buff / TB and 2 buff / TB with bracers and quick draw.