Scottish Parliament backs referendum call

[Kalis]

And we don't face a "massive slashing of public spending" with brexit?

Not on that level, no.

The UK is economically strong enough to leave the EU without huge adverse consequences, this is primarily due to the strength of our London-based financial services sector, Scotland does not have an equivalent of that.

There is no rational economic argument for Scottish independence, arguably there is an emotional one. Heart or head, your choice.

[Deleted]

Running it into the ground? Just call her Jimmy Krankie and save me the trouble mate. I have no party loyalty but lets not pretend Scotlands suddenly come under hard times because of a government that literally puts Scotland first.

But whatever, ignore the fact its an independence party that got voted into power again, hence why shes doing this.

Scotland hasn;t actually run aground because the Union is propping it up.

Without a fiscal transfer of £15 billion from the rest of the Uk into Scotland, the Scottish Government's policies would be utterly unaffordable. Free prescriptions, dental and eye checks, baby boxes, elderly care, university tuiton...why else do you think Scotland runs such a huge deficit? It spends massively more than it raises.

If the rest of the Uk spent like that, it;s deficit would be 10% too, only there'd be no cheque courtesy of next door to make it go away.

In recent years educational attainment in Scotland has fallen below the UK average. It;s growth has been one third of the UK overall growth. Scotland wildly overspends. It has a population aging faster than the rest of the UK's because the birth rates are so low, and migrants moving to the Uk don't go to Scotland. Life expectancies remain well below Uk averages.

Putting Scotland first seems to translate into getting a fat wad of cash from the union and using it to keep up otherwise unaffordable, populist measures of dubious merit.

As to why she is doing it, it;s obvous. It has very little to do with the EU - that;s just a convenient pretext, it has nothing to do with improving life in Scotland, the voters do not want independence and even more do not want a referendum.

This is just political opportunisn by a party whose only real interest is independence, at any cost, using any excuse handy.

[Rockyreg]

If I recall correctly, the level of public spending that would need to be cut is approximately the amount spent on the Scottish NHS (£10-15bn).

To be fair, if she can pull off independence on an EU membership ticket without lying about the severity of the economic restraints it would impose, I would be bloody impressed by her.

I don't think that you need to have a budget deficit below 3% to join the EU, I think thats just for joining the Euro. All the same I'm not sure the EU would be overly happy with a country that has a larger budget deficit than Greece joining.

I actually think after a decade or two Scotland would be fine as an independent country but it will hurt like hell economically and make a 'hard brexit' look like a paradise. But, as with Brexit, economics are not the deciding factor for a large amount of people.

I still think to win she really needs the EU/UK talks to breakdown or a really terrible deal, which is why as has been the case she hasn't been let anywhere near the negotiations.

[Deleted]

And we don't face a "massive slashing of public spending" with brexit?

No. The Uk doesn;t run a 10% fical deficit. Scotland does. (Wales, at 29% and N. Ireland at 34% are even worse)

The Uk is not dependent on the EU sending it money to balance the books. We pay in more than we get out.

Scotland is dependent on the UK and takes out massively more than it puts in.

Moreover, the Uk is not bound by artificial debt and deficit rules demanded by a club it is applying to join.

Scotland trying to join the Eu would be.

Cutting a 10% deficit to 3% would involve cuts and tax rises on an unprecedented scale. Bigger than those in Greece. The Uk has barely done "austerity" at all. George Osborne would look like Santa Claus compared to the cuts/taxes a newly independent Scottish government would have no choice but to implement.

A 10% deficit is unsustainable. No one will buy sovereign debt because of the default risk. Scotland would need to offer ruinous yields to try to entice buyers. That would push up it;s deficit even more. Then there are the startup costs.

Scotland would have no international reputation as a debtor, and it;s credit rating would probably be cut to junk. That's a huge "DON'T BUY" sign.

Greece suffered the same...it didn;t go bust cos the Germans bailed it, but with loans that have to be repaid, with some very nasty conditions.

[Rockyreg]

Running it into the ground? Just call her Jimmy Krankie and save me the trouble mate. I have no party loyalty but lets not pretend Scotlands suddenly come under hard times because of a government that literally puts Scotland first.

But whatever, ignore the fact its an independence party that got voted into power again, hence why shes doing this.

Of course an independence party got voted into power, nearly 50% of the electorate want independence so they are not going to vote for any other party.

The SNP are not doing a great job though on things that are devolved to them. Lets hope if you do win the independence referendum you can get a proper government back in.

[Kalis]

I don't think that you need to have a budget deficit below 3% to join the EU, I think thats just for joining the Euro. All the same I'm not sure the EU would be overly happy with a country that has a larger budget deficit than Greece joining.

I thought new members had to agree to the Euro.

I actually think after a decade or two Scotland would be fine as an independent country but it will hurt like hell economically and make a 'hard brexit' look like a paradise. But, as with Brexit, economics are not the deciding factor for a large amount of people.

"It will be shit for 10-20 years, but with a bit of luck we might end up roughly where we are now."

[Rockyreg]

That is one massive maybe. The reason the snp dominate Scottish politics is because the mainstream parties have little credibility north of the border. Labour are in a state of disarray, the tories have had little support in Scotland for many decades and the lib dems are an irrelevance to uk politics as a whole.

If the uk wants to "crush the rebellious Scots" it will have to offer an alternative to our Holyrood sitting government, and that's not going to happen this side of 2021.

As you know, only a little bit of resistance will prevent a majority at Holyrood. She could poll 40% in the next election and probably not have the majority to call another referendum.

[sarahtasher]

You can say what you want, but Scotland rather, ahem, complex history with England does not allow to say with a sleight of hand that this desire for independance is petty.

(After all, the Scots made abundantly clear after the ''Glorious'' Revolution what they thought of William ''the Dutch')

[Rockyreg]

I thought new members had to agree to the Euro.

I think that was part of the plan, but al this recent 'two-speed' Europe talk I think will allow the necessary flexibility.

"It will be shit for 10-20 years, but with a bit of luck we might end up roughly where we are now."

She should stick that in the next manifesto.

[Kalis]

You can say what you want, but Scotland rather, ahem, complex history with England does not allow to say with a sleight of hand that this desire for independance is petty.

(After all, the Scots made abundantly clear after the ''Glorious'' Revolution what they thought of William ''the Dutch')

Britain is in the 21st Century*, not the 17th.



*Apart from the Isle of Wight.

- - - Updated - - -

Tell me exactly what Im supposed to do, as a Scot, who has no voice, nor will ever have a voice in this United Kingdom.

The Scottish have proportionally more representation than the English. And more devolved powers.

[Rockyreg]

I'd love a complete reshuffle of how we do democracy honestly, party politics and FPTP isnt exactly democratic. But yes, get the keys to the house before you redecorate.

I would prefer a more proportional system personally as you get less sweeping changes every time a government on the other side of the political spectrum gets in with a majority. I don't think there a perfect system though as they all have pros and cons.

[Deleted]

The question now is not if Scotland will leave the Union its when. Kicking it down the road is avoiding the fact that it will happen much like NI leaving.

[Deleted]

So after being schooled by several posters we're still on the defecit argument?

The deficit won't vanish because peopel deny it exists. Remember, the Scottish Government's own published statistics show that deficit is there, it is real, and it's not going away. Spending in Scotland is massively higher than revenue raised.

Indeed, it is actually England with a lower than Uk average deficit that is holding Uk deficit down, because of England's huge population.

Tell me exactly what Im supposed to do, as a Scot, who has no voice, nor will ever have a voice in this United Kingdom.

What nonsense. You have exactly the same voice as I do in England. In fact, given that Scottish constituencies are smaller than English ones, you actually have more voice than I do. Strictly speaking there shold be fewer Scottish MP's than their actually are - or more English ones. If you based it on population.

Everyone in the Uk has a vote, last time I checked the Scots had one person, one vote, same as everyone else.

This stopped being about economics a long damn time ago. And I would have thought that my country voting to stay, would have had more of an impact than a fucking tax variable.

I thought you were worried about your best interests? Well, you won;t have any interests if Scotland's economy went down the toilet upon the glorious revolution, and my guess is that people would stop worrying about waving their Saltires and start worrying about their mortgages pretty damn fast.

Remember that old phrase in the American elections

It's the economy, stupid

The SNP are trying to turn this into a "blood and flag" routine because they have zero grounds for arguing that independence would improve the everyday lives for the Scottish people.

Thje novelty of independence would vanish the moment the new Scottish Fiannce Minister stood up and admitted, terribly sorry, we are broke, so we're going to have to cut from public spending the equivalent of the entire NHS Scotland budget and raise VAT to 30%, and income tax to 25% because now we're free of nasty, horrid bullying Westminster they dont; seem very keen on unconditionally sending us a cheque worth 10% of our entire GDP every year.

- - - Updated - - -

I think that was part of the plan, but al this recent 'two-speed' Europe talk I think will allow the necessary flexibility.

Nope, it's in the accession treaties and the only way to get rid of it is to amend the treaties. Which would require unanimous approval from all Eu countries (including the UK until we formally leave in 2019).

And no one wants to re-open the treaties. It would invite a free for all with every country wanting to put in it's own special clauses. It would consume a huge amount of time and effort, not least because every national legislature would be required to pass every detail. And there would be demands to subject it to referenda - certainly in Denmark, who had a referendum over an associative agreement with Ukraine, probably France and other too, the Irish consitution requires a referendum. There'd be a worry that a country would vote no and stuff the whole process causing huge embarassment, remember how the EU constituion went?



She should stick that in the next manifesto.[/QUOTE]

[Deleted]

I thought new members had to agree to the Euro.



"It will be shit for 10-20 years, but with a bit of luck we might end up roughly where we are now."

That could also be the slogan for brexit :P