The difficulty of having either reform or revolt in North Korea.

[sarahtasher]

Let's concede the obvious first : a confrontation between the USA and North Korea have a very obvious outcome. That outcome also involve grievous costs for the US.

That said, what are the chances that the North Korean nomenklatura accepts, even during duress, to underdo a regime change ? (I don't think I'm stretching the truth much by suggesting that threatening the regime presumably come with hopes of convincing moderates that the Komrade is a bad horse). After all, Eastern Europe saw the previous nomenklatura switch rather easily to capitalism...

It's going to be much harder to implement in North Korea, alas, for a simple reason : the North Korean elite is more and more aware already that there is a gap between the life standards of even an unskilled South Korean worker and a North Korean. They are not going to turn against the Kims for material goods, because the said elite is also perfectly aware that South Koreans are going to devour them alive.

After all, a Eastern German in 1990 did not had relatively useless skills in technology, management, information, and the like. There was a gap between East and West Germany, but a matter of years, not decades. If you are a North Korean factory manager, what are the chances that you can remotely compete against someone from the South ? (If only because in the South, the factory actually products stuff, while most North Korean industry have bouts of inactivity).

To take a biblical metaphor, the average North Korean bureaucrat is not going to support regime change from a bowl of lentils. Not because of communist conviction, but because they known damn well that they will be at the bottom rung of the society if they are not shot (FTR, the economic privileges of the North Korean elite are apparently quite modest-a North Korean ''fat cat'' does not live much better than a Western blue collar worker ...)

[Tijuana]

I continue to be amazed that people think Best Korea is a threat to the US army. The last time they fought in a war was when? The last time they fought us? They have no experience, inferior equipment, inferior strategy, and inferior moral standing. They are only a threat to their neighbors while we land.

[NED funded]

I'll admit I have little knowledge on this topics. But shouldn't the elite be fine as long as they own land? I can see North Korea devising a plan in which they do something like the chinese did with TVEs.

EDIT: Corrected some stuff.

[MonsieuRoberts]

Great vid that'll educate you on what's going on over there, how it all came to be (Stuff I didn't really know) & a bit of what's next:



It really is a tough question. No one seems to want to handle/help a post-communism North Korea.

[sarahtasher]

I continue to be amazed that people think Best Korea is a threat to the US army. The last time they fought in a war was when? The last time they fought us? They have no experience, inferior equipment, inferior strategy, and inferior moral standing. They are only a threat to their neighbors while we land.

OP.

Let's concede the obvious first : a confrontation between the USA and North Korea have a very obvious outcome. That outcome also involve grievous costs for the US. (TLDR : you will win, but it will cost a lot. And I would add that North Korea is likely perfectly able to inflict a few hundred fatalities)

[Tijuana]

The post seems about political, not martial, difficulty. But good hustle.

It was in reference to this obviously: "Let's concede the obvious first : a confrontation between the USA and North Korea have a very obvious outcome. That outcome also involve grievous costs for the US"

Good game. /ass slap

[sarahtasher]

It was in reference to this obviously: "Let's concede the obvious first : a confrontation between the USA and North Korea have a very obvious outcome. That outcome also involve grievous costs for the US"

Good game. /ass slap

Yes, so to be clear : the obvious outcome is the US winning. Happy ?

[Tijuana]

OP.

Let's concede the obvious first : a confrontation between the USA and North Korea have a very obvious outcome. That outcome also involve grievous costs for the US. (TLDR : you will win, but it will cost a lot. And I would add that North Korea is likely perfectly able to inflict a few hundred fatalities)

Is a couple of hundred fatalities really GRIEVOUS COSTS? Get serious...

Our primary concern for invasion would be the South Koreans in Seoul, who are sitting under a potential rain storm of artillery.

To the diplomacy angle, I don't think we really care who the hell runs that country, as long as they are not building nukes with money that could feed their starving people. That is what makes Kim so stupid. He could run that country until he dies, if he just puts the nuclear program down. As much as we would like to think differently, humanitarian reasons have never been, and never will be, enough reason for a foreign invasion.

[sarahtasher]

Is a couple of hundred fatalities really GRIEVOUS COSTS? Get serious...

Our primary concern for invasion would be the South Koreans in Seoul, who are sitting under a potential rain storm of artillery.

Nope, a few hundred casualties are not grievous costs. Trillions of dollars for the operation, however, are.

[Sky High]

the cost of getting that entire peninsula up on it's feet after the the dust settles is enough to make me not want to get involved at all.

[Blur4stuff]

South Korea has made/revised plans more than once for reunification. I would love to see the creation of Korea, but bombing the shit out of North Korea isn't going to have some glorious outcome. Again, I think it's a case of people being excited to see bombs drop without having to worry about their own ass suffering the consequences. Like those cheering on the bombs in Syria and Afghanistan along with anyone who excused everything Obama did. And then there's the maniacs who treated the Iraq invasion like a concert or movie.

Everyone talking about how easy it would be to beat and replace/clean out North Korean government elements... I feel like none of you learned anything from the Iraq war and all of the bullshit supporters said before it started.

but Iraq isn't North Korea and we could do this and that different! You see, it wouldn't be the same.

Yeah okay Cheney jr

[Tijuana]

South Korea has made/revised plans more than once for reunification. I would love to see the creation of Korea, but bombing the shit out of North Korea isn't going to have some glorious outcome. Again, I think it's a case of people being excited to see bombs drop without having to worry about their own ass suffering the consequences. Like those cheering on the bombs in Syria and Afghanistan along with anyone who excused everything Obama did. And then there's the maniacs who treated the Iraq invasion like a concert or movie.

Everyone talking about how easy it would be to beat and replace/clean out North Korean government elements... I feel like none of you learned anything from the Iraq war and all of the bullshit supporters said before it started.



Yeah okay Cheney jr

It was a pretty good show at the start, you have to admit. But, the plot got dull early, and the rest was hard to watch.

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Noone gave a fuck about a single US soldier dying post-ww2, we're talking South Koreans here.

What are you on about? You think Americans don't care about battlefield casualties? If you don't, I can't imagine what your standard is, because no country would ever meet it, if we don't.

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the cost of getting that entire peninsula up on it's feet after the the dust settles is enough to make me not want to get involved at all.

Oh wow, I didn't know Xi Jinping posted here!

[Spiffums]

NK isn't a threat to the US. Their allies are a threat to the US. Remember in the Korean War that China fought with the North. I'm honestly just waiting for NK to piss of China and then China slaps the taste out of their mouths.

[Tijuana]

As it turns out, nation building tends to be rather expensive and we generally foot the bill for that.

Pretty sure we are out of that business for good. If we have to blow you up, it's on you to rebuild. Most of the places we would go to war these days, not much could be worse that what is now, so the power vacuum isn't as relevant as it was in Iraq. Take Syria for example. What's the worst that could happen? That a murderous dictator takes over and kills his own people with chemical weapons?

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NK isn't a threat to the US. Their allies are a threat to the US. Remember in the Korean War that China fought with the North. I'm honestly just waiting for NK to piss of China and then China slaps the taste out of their mouths.

Can we get that whole thing started please? lol

[Tijuana]

I'm not American. I'm talking about not caring about some random idiots getting themselves killed. All they can get is the Darwin's award for getting shat on in some jungle or desert on the other side of the world like morons.

I'd feel bad for South Koreans though.

Wow, what a callous thing to say. You must be fun at parties.

[sarahtasher]

Pretty sure we are out of that business for good. If we have to blow you up, it's on you to rebuild. Most of the places we would go to war these days, not much could be worse that what is now, so the power vacuum isn't as relevant as it was in Iraq. Take Syria for example. What's the worst that could happen? That a murderous dictator takes over and kills his own people with chemical weapons?

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Can we get that whole thing started please? lol

Okay, so the alternative to invading countries and not spending enough on rebuilding them (when the premise is in the first place ''bring stability) is invading countries and not pay for rebuilding at all. Groovy.

[RyanEX]

It was a pretty good show at the start, you have to admit. But, the plot got dull early, and the rest was hard to watch.

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What are you on about? You think Americans don't care about battlefield casualties? If you don't, I can't imagine what your standard is, because no country would ever meet it, if we don't.

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Oh wow, I didn't know Xi Jinping posted here!

He's not entirely wrong. During the Vietnam War, where a large number of soldiers were DRAFTED into fighting. When those soldiers were finally able to come home they came home to a country that hated them, and they were ostracised for years.

As for North Korea, assuming there is a "war" and Kim gets outed. Would the rest of the Northerners know what to do with their sudden "freedom"? This is always the problem in these kind of situations. We have a country that is built on generations of following the orders, regardless of how crazy they are, of their leader. Now you tell them they can make their own choices...not an easy thing.

[NED funded]

Okay, so the alternative to invading countries and not spending enough on rebuilding them (when the premise is in the first place ''bring stability) is invading countries and not pay for rebuilding at all. Groovy.

It's not like it would be our problem, that would be China's mess to clear.

[sarahtasher]

It's not like it would be our problem, that would be China's mess to clear.

If this is the plan, why invade in the first place ? To replace North Korea by China ?

[Tijuana]

Okay, so the alternative to invading countries and not spending enough on rebuilding them (when the premise is in the first place ''bring stability) is invading countries and not pay for rebuilding at all. Groovy.

Or, option three: Kick their asses, piss on their graves, then go home. We need to stop feeling guilty for winning wars. Just sayin...

In the absence of even the smallest amount of stability pre-war, you can't do any worse, and at least you remove the bad actor.