Version 2 of Senate GOP Trumpcare Out: Pre-Existing Condition Discrimination Is Back

[Skroe]

I simply love it when the Trump loyalists claim that Democrats are in a civil war. It's projection at its finest.

The far right wants to kill people to get the biggest tax cuts on the wealthy possible.

The center right wants to kill a few people for modest tax cuts and brownie points with constituents.

The moderates are decent people who want a working health care system.

And they're all screaming their heads off at each other over how to accomplish each of their individual end games.

The very first thing I said after Trump won in November was that the Republican Civil War that was expected to be unleashed in his defeat was delayed, not prevented, because the strains and contradictions were not resolved. They were papered over by better than expected results in the House and Senate (where Republicans still lost seats) and Trump's win.

We're seeing now the cracks re-opening. Because Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, John McCain and Susan Collins existing in the same party makes zero sense.

I've wanted this Civil War for years, pre-Trump. The Tea Party crazies and Libertarian nutjobs have got to go.

- - - Updated - - -

How confident are you in this. Because I'm going to bookmark and hold you to this if the repeal legislation gets introduced.

I don't share you faith in the slightest, especially since this grants them a legislative "win" (participant award) while also providing them with over a year to try to figure out a solution that they can at least get 51 of their own party behind.

Otherwise they're gambling with the midterms, and at this point I think they're dumb and desperate enough to do just that.

I'd love to be wrong, though.

McCain's out for weeks and they'll never get Susan Collins, Dean Heller and Lisa Murkowski to vote against an Obamacare repeal that would decimate Medicaid expansion in the exact same way without the promise of a replacement. Hell the only way Murkowski was even dabbling with voting for the now-dead plan was with the so called "Klondike Kickback".

That's four votes down right there.

It comes down to this: Republicans want a "legislative win", but a flat out Obamacare repeal would mean that some Republicans would take a bullet, so to speak, to deliver it for the President. In this case, that President is going to be Trump. That simply isn't going to happen.

Other reasons it's dead:

- McConnell much rather deal with tax reform than this issue. He won't spend political capital on this when he'll need it on that. That's been true since the beginning.

- The debt ceiling needs to be raised in the next 3 months, and Republicans will need Democratic votes to pass it in the House since the Freedom Caucus will never vote for it. This means Democrats have tremendous leverage to force policy changes about pretty much whatever they want, at the risk of the country defaulting. In other words, exactly what Republicans did to them a few years back.


The only angle to truly get how McConnell's mind works on Obamacare Repeal is to realize he thinks of it the way most of us do: it's been a 7 year con that's been used to mobilize the base with something that was never going to be delivered. McConnell has to put on the show, but he'll not shed a tear when the effort dies and Republicans never talk about it again, having served its purpose to get Republicans back into the majority. He much rather talk about income and corporate taxes.

[Omega10]

Obamacare repeal without replace won't pass either. It'll fail, just like this, for the same reasons.

I also am not so confident of this.

The only angle to truly get how McConnell's mind works on Obamacare Repeal is to realize he thinks of it the way most of us do: it's been a 7 year con that's been used to mobilize the base with something that was never going to be delivered.

I hope you are correct about this. But even if it was meant to be a con all along, it has been an entirely effective one, and the momentum for republicans to finally achieve their dream of an Obamacare - free America still burns strong in a LOT of people. There will be a lot of pressure on wavering republicans to vote for the repeal.

[Skroe]

Also a full repeal bill would likely be impossible to put to a vote under reconciliation rules, which would mean that 60 votes would be needed to end debate (since its legislation).
Which means Democrats will filibusterer it. Which means Republicans now have somebody to blame for the failure to repeal Obamacare again.
You know who is counting on exactly this? Mitch McConnell. He wants this effort to fail and die, but he doesn't want his finger prints on it.

[Wyrt]

Knew it. Republicans will burn this motherfucker to the ground, then huddle up and point fingers and start blame game. Moderate Democrats will eventually collapse to their health care bill.

Bitch McConnell is like trying to see how awful he can be before his state kicks him out of office, yes?

[Breccia]

I'd say that Trump specifically ran on the basis of keeping healthcare provisions like ensuring people can get reasonable insurance despite pre-existing conditions but that would imply I was surprised that the GOP backtracked here.

Trump promised a plan that would cover more people, with better coverage, for less money.

Which is impossible. Well, until we go single-payer.

Then he outsourced this to the House and Senate. You've seen three strikes. They're out of ideas.

[Omega10]

Also a full repeal bill would likely be impossible to put to a vote under reconciliation rules, which would mean that 60 votes would be needed to end debate (since its legislation).
Which means Democrats will filibusterer it. Which means Republicans now have somebody to blame for the failure to repeal Obamacare again.
You know who is counting on exactly this? Mitch McConnell. He wants this effort to fail and die, but he doesn't want his finger prints on it.

Seems like an effective political strategy for republicans for the future. We'll see if this comes to pass. Your suggesting that repealing Obamacare is meant to be a political talking point for republicans for years to come - maybe decades!

[Skroe]

I also am not so confident of this.

You're the first person to say this, and I don't understand why.

We have a number of moderate Republican senators - more than was needed - who said they would not vote for Obamacare repeal unless the bill replaced it with certain things that protected popular items on it, like pre-existing conditions and medicaid expansion. The first bill failed because it didn't cover it their level of satisfaction. The second bill got closer, but still fell well short. But the key theme is, these moderates won't vote for a bill that just demolishes Obamacare without something in its place.

And now McConnell is going to put up a bill that JUST demolishes without even the pretext of building - kicking that can to the future - and you people are skeptical that it doesn't in fact have better chances? With the Mike Lee / Ted Cruz wing sure. But it's going to lose the same people who were against the first bill and more sympathetic to the second version.

That is the core problem for Republicans. While the far right wants simply Obamacare's repeal, that never had the votes without the center right or center. And the center-right and center's position never had the support of the far right.

To put it another way, flat out repeal, that doesn't address Medicaid, or pre-existing conditions, has the worst chances of them all, because Senators won't be able to even have a veneer of saying "we're improving healthcare by fixing Obamacare". It's pure base-feed. It only has a better chance if you think all Republicans in the Senate are Secretly Mike Lee and Ted Cruz, and are just waiting for the bill to go full destroyer, which simply isn't the case.

[Breccia]

I share @Skroe 's opinion that a flat-out repeal might not happen, but not for the same reasons. It might be impossible.

The reason the TrumpCare versions we've seen have Medicaid cuts, is because anything the GOP wants to pass needs to be deficit-neutral or better, to prevent the filibuster. Depending on the CBO score, removing all the ACA taxes might not do that. Should that be the case, the GOP needs 60 votes to pass a repeal, which they're never going to get.

"Repeal now, replace later" is a dangerous weapon to leave lying around on your coffee table. Some sick kid might shoot you in the 2018s. There is currently a large quantity of evidence that the GOP can't find a working health care plan now, despite 7 years of trying. Expecting them to find one later, when they have no pressing reason to at all, is laughable. But, again, it might not be an issue.

[Skroe]

I share @Skroe 's opinion that a flat-out repeal might not happen, but not for the same reasons. It might be impossible.

The reason the TrumpCare versions we've seen have Medicaid cuts, is because anything the GOP wants to pass needs to be deficit-neutral or better, to prevent the filibuster. Depending on the CBO score, removing all the ACA taxes might not do that. Should that be the case, the GOP needs 60 votes to pass a repeal, which they're never going to get.

"Repeal now, replace later" is a dangerous weapon to leave lying around on your coffee table. Some sick kid might shoot you in the 2018s. There is currently a large quantity of evidence that the GOP can't find a working health care plan now, despite 7 years of trying. Expecting them to find one later, when they have no pressing reason to at all, is laughable. But, again, it might not be an issue.

That was my follow up post!

[Mormolyce]

Republicans oppose healthcare plans leaving party without majority

Two more Republican senators have said they oppose their party's replacement for President Obama's health system, making it impossible for the bill to pass in its current form.
Mike Lee and Jerry Moran say the new legislation does not go far enough in repealing the health legislation.
Republicans have been divided on the issue, with moderates concerned about the effects on the most vulnerable.
President Donald Trump made repealing Obamacare a key campaign pledge.
"Regretfully, it is now apparent that the effort to repeal and immediately replace the failure of Obamacare will not be successful," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said.
The Republican plan had kept key Obamacare taxes on the wealthy, while allowing insurers to offer less coverage and imposing sharp cuts to healthcare for the poor.
With the two new opponents, Republicans - who hold 52 seats - no longer have enough votes to pass the bill in the 100-member Senate.
The two senators simultaneously announced their opposition to the planned reforms, joining senators Rand Paul and Susan Collins, who were also against the bill.
Mr Moran said "we should not put our stamp of approval on bad policy" while for Mr Lee, "in addition to not repealing all of the Obamacare taxes [the bill] doesn't go far enough in lowering premiums for middle class families; nor does it create enough free space from the most costly Obamacare regulations."

Reacting to what is being seen as a significant setback, Mr Trump urged Republicans to repeal the "failing Obamacare now and work on a new healthcare plan that will start from a clean slate".

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40639909

*World's smallest violin*

[Breccia]

That was my follow up post!

You were saying they'll never make it to 50. And you could easily be correct.

I was saying, they might need to make it to 60.

Both could be correct, and both are hilarious. Are we tired of winning yet?

[Skroe]

You were saying they'll never make it to 50. And you could easily be correct.

I was saying, they might need to make it to 60.

Both could be correct, and both are hilarious. Are we tired of winning yet?

Noooooooooooo....

Also a full repeal bill would likely be impossible to put to a vote under reconciliation rules, which would mean that 60 votes would be needed to end debate (since its legislation).
Which means Democrats will filibusterer it. Which means Republicans now have somebody to blame for the failure to repeal Obamacare again.
You know who is counting on exactly this? Mitch McConnell. He wants this effort to fail and die, but he doesn't want his finger prints on it.

But yeah I agree with you. They'll never get 60 votes. Republican sites are saying 45 is a stretch. Breaking 40 could be a challenge.

[Breccia]

Republican sites are saying 45 is a stretch. Breaking 40 could be a challenge.

Heh...hahaha...HAHAHAHAHA!

Covfefe.

EDIT: CNN has a good piece that mentions that idea, if not those exact numbers. It goes into great detail about how the two "no" votes collaborated to say "no" at the same time, therefore, neither of them being the all-important third "no". The fact that their issues with TrumpCare 3.1 are not at all alike, yet they still did this, is particularly telling.

And, yes, overcooked steak is involved.

[Mormolyce]

Aaaaaaand it's dead.

Republicans divided after second healthcare bill collapses

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republicans in the U.S. Congress were in chaos over healthcare legislation after a second attempt to pass a bill in the Senate collapsed late on Monday, with President Donald Trump calling for an outright repeal of Obamacare and others seeking a change in direction toward bipartisanship.

"Regretfully, it is now apparent that the effort to repeal and immediately replace the failure of Obamacare will not be successful," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said in a statement.

Two of McConnell's Senate conservatives announced just hours earlier that they would not support the Republican leader's latest version of legislation to repeal portions of President Barack Obama's landmark 2010 healthcare law and replace them with new, less costly healthcare provisions.

With Republican Senators Mike Lee and Jerry Moran joining Senators Susan Collins and Rand Paul in opposition - and amid a solid wall of opposition from Democrats - McConnell no longer had enough votes to pass a Republican healthcare bill in the 100-member Senate.

It was the latest in a series of healthcare setbacks for Republicans, despite their control of both chambers of Congress and the White House.

It also came after seven straight years of promising voters that they would repeal Obamacare if they were to control Congress and the White House, only to find that the public liked Obamacare more than their proposed substitutes, according to public opinion polls.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office has determined that the various versions of Republican healthcare legislation would result in anywhere from 18 million to 23 million people losing their health insurance.

However, Republicans argue that Obamacare is a government over-reach and costs too much money.

Major Blow

Monday's developments had an immediate impact on financial markets as Asian shares stepped back from more than two-year highs on Tuesday and the dollar extended losses. [nL3N1K907K]

In the United States, the latest setback delivered a major political blow to Trump, who has failed to win any major legislative initiative in the first six months of his presidency.

In response, Trump said on Twitter Congress should immediately repeal Obamacare and "start from a clean slate" on a new healthcare plan. He said Democrats would join such an effort, even though they have refused to have any part of an Obamacare repeal.

McConnell, apparently backing Trump's latest approach, announced that he would try to bring legislation to repeal Obamacare to the Senate floor in coming days, but with a two-year delay in implementation to assure a smooth transition.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1A228B

[ati87]

I share @Skroe 's opinion that a flat-out repeal might not happen, but not for the same reasons. It might be impossible.

The reason the TrumpCare versions we've seen have Medicaid cuts, is because anything the GOP wants to pass needs to be deficit-neutral or better, to prevent the filibuster. Depending on the CBO score, removing all the ACA taxes might not do that. Should that be the case, the GOP needs 60 votes to pass a repeal, which they're never going to get.

"Repeal now, replace later" is a dangerous weapon to leave lying around on your coffee table. Some sick kid might shoot you in the 2018s. There is currently a large quantity of evidence that the GOP can't find a working health care plan now, despite 7 years of trying. Expecting them to find one later, when they have no pressing reason to at all, is laughable. But, again, it might not be an issue.

yea but we are talking about Republicans.

They will argue based on dynamic scoring that destroying the ACA will create soooo much growth that the economy will grow in the double digits (if needed)

[Perkunas]

I share @Skroe 's opinion that a flat-out repeal might not happen, but not for the same reasons. It might be impossible.

The reason the TrumpCare versions we've seen have Medicaid cuts, is because anything the GOP wants to pass needs to be deficit-neutral or better, to prevent the filibuster. Depending on the CBO score, removing all the ACA taxes might not do that. Should that be the case, the GOP needs 60 votes to pass a repeal, which they're never going to get.

"Repeal now, replace later" is a dangerous weapon to leave lying around on your coffee table. Some sick kid might shoot you in the 2018s. There is currently a large quantity of evidence that the GOP can't find a working health care plan now, despite 7 years of trying. Expecting them to find one later, when they have no pressing reason to at all, is laughable. But, again, it might not be an issue.

You want to know why they can't find a working health care plan? Because Obamacare was THEIR plan originally.

[Kaleredar]

Aaaaaaand it's dead.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1A228B

Hmm...

https://youtube.com/watch?v=IoyvvEWHodk

[Perkunas]

Hmm...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IoyvvEWHodk

This is the bill that wont die. Don't celebrate until the turtle is no longer in charge of the senate. Somebody start leaving lovely pieces of lettuce in a trail from his home to the nearest creek.

[ati87]

You want to know why they can't find a working health care plan? Because Obamacare was THEIR plan originally.

Plus in all honestly in essence the ACA is the max what one could do unless you go full government run healthcare.

At best you can remove a thing or two like the taxes or maybe the children till X age getting covered by the parents plan but the mandate, minimum quality plans and pre-existing coverage all what makes the ACA a successes even though the right-wing will never admit that.

[Mormolyce]

This is the bill that wont die. Don't celebrate until the turtle is no longer in charge of the senate. Somebody start leaving lovely pieces of lettuce in a trail from his home to the nearest creek.

I expect them to try more shenanigans.

End of the day though, unless they do a 180 on everything they've talked about for 8 years and their entire election platform, they're going to be advancing a monumentally unpopular piece of legislation that will struggle to pass and if it does, will get them eviscerated next election.

Kobayashi Maru.