Originally Posted by
Skroe
American Foreign Policy has been incompetent for decades. It has a grand strategy - one that is over 100 years old - that it executes in such a shit-tastic, careless manner than the US has been lucky to not have a great power rival at the present because they'd eat us for lunch. We've gone from being the most serious people on Earth to emphatically non-serious.
What am I talking about? The key failure of US foreign policy is to separate core interests from ancillary or secondary interests, and properly allocating resources (of all types) proportionately.
Take for example, the War in Terror. In Response to 9/11, we went to war not once, but twice, nominally, to fight terror. Wars that have cost:
-$2 trillion
-Severely damaged national finances
-Killed 5000+ Americans
-Required massive and permanently redeployments of Troops from Europe to the Middle East and Central Asia
-Significantly aged our Military equipment
-Caused significant harm to the US's geopolitical position
-All but canceled the mid-2000s military upgrade.
We have fought those wars... successfully? No. ISIS rose in Iraq/Syria. The only reason the Taliban don't rule Afghanistan is because the US, insanely, is still there 16 years later.
In the mean time while the US military has spent the past 15 years retooling itself to fight insurgencies and terrorists, China and Russia have retooled themselves specifically to beat forces like ours. Because of the Iraq War specifically, the US military is incapable of a large scale military operation on the level of the Iraq War, probably until the late 2020s.
All of it is due to improper allocations of costs. 181 F-22s instead of 400? Iraq War spending. Carriers on a 5 year build plan instead of a 4 (a big deal)? War on terror spending. 450,000 US troops instead of 580,000? War spending... personnel costs have gone through the roof. Replacing 10,000 Tomahawk-C cruise missiles from 2003 with 2500 Toamhawk-Es? Operational war spending.
How many armored brigades did the US have in Europe until last year? Zero. Why? Iraq War.
This is just a microcosm of the larger issue. We treated terrorism and Al Qaeda like they were giants when they were gnats. It's not the only issue in which we do that. The result is, the things that do matter - like keeping China and Russia down and keeping the American-led Post World War II global order strong from threats - are greatly under-resourced.
Consider for example the inroads China has made into Latin America while America was distracted in the Middle East? And where was Obama's muscular response to Russian aggression in Ukraine?
The best way to describe America in 2017 is "the default superpower". It fulfills all the qualifications... despite itself. And a big reason for that is that every other potential rival has significant drags that make hinder their chances of challenging America's role of the global hegemon.
But the world has changed significantly since 2003. The gap between America's power versus other countries in the world, except for China, has widened to a significant degree for a lot of reasons. But America's gap versus China has sharply eroded as we've become embroiled in other concerns and not warded off the growing threat from them. Or to put it another way, China and America are pulling away from the pack, but the gap between the two gets narrower by the year.
I've been called a neocon on these boards on countless occasions, mostly by deeply uneducated people who have no clue what they're talking about. I'm anything but. I'm for a restrained American foreign policy... one that picks it's battles very carefully and is generally detached. And that's the key problem with American foreign policy. It picks its battles recklessly because it treats power like a god-given, bottomless resource rather than the easily deplorable, difficult to refill resource that has to be carefully nutured and judiciously extended.
America should be focused on the threats to the global order. It should not be spending billions of dollars and years at a time patrolling far-flung Muslim towns on foot. Years ago the New York Times editorial page lead a multiyear campaign against the F-22, calling the (then troubled) fighter a relic of the Cold War that would never be used in the Wars America was actually fight or would likely fight. And here we are in 2017 wishing we had a hell of a lot more F-22s and 15 years out from a successor, because the wars we turned out to be "likely to fight" in 2009 turned out to not be the wars we're "likely to fight" in 2017. In truth, America should have never stopped building F-22s as a matter of principle, not because of "neocon militarism" or crap like that, but because what the F-22 represents - an insurance of American Air Supremacy and an investment in the upkeep of the American-led global order - is consistent with what America's foreign policy agenda should be.
America simply needs to pick its battles way better. And I'll rank the threats, right now, broadly:
Russia > China >> Cyberspace > Space > North Korea > Climate Change-induced instability >>> Terrorism
But 10 years out, China is going to be the top of the list, with a lot of ">>>" before Russia. And that's because while we're playing games with ISIS and pretending 30,000 thugs and rapists are a threat to the world worthy of our attention, China is gearing up, specifically to push us out of the Western Pacific, and bring a close to American primacy of the region since World War II.
So what's more important? Fighting ISIS or warding off China's threat to a region that is home to countless core American interests, over half the world's GDP and is the most important geopolitical region on Earth? Now allocate resources appropriately. That's what it picking your battles means. And America has absolutely sucked at it for 25 years.