NOAA US Winter Outlook: Prepare for Another Warmer Winter

[melodramocracy]

I'm more than ok with this.

[Independent voter]

I've heard it caled "el nino" meaning a mischievous little boy but in the OP they call it "la nina" meaning a girl. Is there a difference or is it another attempt at being less sexist?

[Nerdgasm]

I've heard it caled "el nino" meaning a mischievous little boy but in the OP they call it "la nina" meaning a girl. Is there a difference or is it another attempt at being less sexist?

It's a similar phenomenon but with the opposite effects.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a

[satimy]

I've heard it caled "el nino" meaning a mischievous little boy but in the OP they call it "la nina" meaning a girl. Is there a difference or is it another attempt at being less sexist?

La nina is Pacific Ocean El Niño aka the Nino is Atlantic iirc

[Armourboy]

They *claim* a high accuracy rate, but really have nothing to back that up. They've also had some big flubs, like predicting a harsh winter for 2012. Which ended up being one of the warmest recorded winters for the U.S.

Last that I read it was somewhere around 85% accurate, which obviously leaves room for some off years. Nothing is exact, but considering how long they have been around if they weren't right a considerable amount of the time farmers and such would have stopped using them long ago.

Weather here in Tennessee seems pretty normal tbh. We don't usually get our first real " cold " snap ( meaning lows getting close to the 20's) until right around Halloween, and that seems to be right on schedule this year. Of course here its a bit tainted because people remember winters from when they were kids and think it's too warm. Problem is when I was a kid here we had some of the coldest, snowiest winters on record, so if that is what you " remember" then you are remembering an extreme and not a norm.

It will be interesting to see who is right this year because NOAA and the Farmer's Almanac seem to be on two different sides. Frankly I would come much closer to trusting the Farmer's Almanac than I would about anything else for around here at least.

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La nina is Pacific Ocean El Niño aka the Nino is Atlantic iirc

Pretty sure both are in the Pacific, it's just different names based on the cycle. El Nino is the strong warm cycle, La Nina is the weaker cooler cycle.

[derpkitteh]

global warm my shit up, fam

i want the leaves to stay green and to be able to go outside when i want.

fuck winter.

[Deleted]

Anyone got some reliable predictions for Europe for a change?

[Milchshake]

Anyone got some reliable predictions for Europe for a change?

Who does NOAA type work for the EU? It's nice having preeminent organizations like NOAA and NASA working on our weather and climate data. Hopefully they dont get hollowed out or privatized.

[satimy]

Last that I read it was somewhere around 85% accurate, which obviously leaves room for some off years. Nothing is exact, but considering how long they have been around if they weren't right a considerable amount of the time farmers and such would have stopped using them long ago.

Weather here in Tennessee seems pretty normal tbh. We don't usually get our first real " cold " snap ( meaning lows getting close to the 20's) until right around Halloween, and that seems to be right on schedule this year. Of course here its a bit tainted because people remember winters from when they were kids and think it's too warm. Problem is when I was a kid here we had some of the coldest, snowiest winters on record, so if that is what you " remember" then you are remembering an extreme and not a norm.

It will be interesting to see who is right this year because NOAA and the Farmer's Almanac seem to be on two different sides. Frankly I would come much closer to trusting the Farmer's Almanac than I would about anything else for around here at least.

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Pretty sure both are in the Pacific, it's just different names based on the cycle. El Nino is the strong warm cycle, La Nina is the weaker cooler cycle.

Ah yep you're right

[Garnier Fructis]

Last that I read it was somewhere around 85% accurate, which obviously leaves room for some off years. Nothing is exact, but considering how long they have been around if they weren't right a considerable amount of the time farmers and such would have stopped using them long ago.

They're right for basically the same reason that people find fortune tellers right despite them being full of shit: if your predictions are vague enough, you'll probably hit something close to your target.

[Armourboy]

They're right for basically the same reason that people find fortune tellers right despite them being full of shit: if your predictions are vague enough, you'll probably hit something close to your target.

Have you actually ever read one? Your thoughts make me think you probably haven't. They aren't vague, and in fact have more detail than most long term forecasts I've seen from just about any other source.

[lockedout]

This shit happens all the time in NJ. The only odd thing is the leaves not falling, but the weather seems normal to slightly above normal. My birthday is early November, when I was a kid (90s) we'd almost always have some kind of outside party.

Yeah it's called Indian summer.

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On the front page of MMO-C this was shortened to "NOAA US Winter Outlook: Prepare for Another War..."

The whites are coming. Protect the wall.

[shadowdasher]

Funny, I keep hearing it's going to be a colder wetter (snow) winter.

[Garnier Fructis]

Have you actually ever read one? Your thoughts make me think you probably haven't. They aren't vague, and in fact have more detail than most long term forecasts I've seen from just about any other source.

No, I haven't. I'm basing my posts on the stuff on their web page (which is painfully vague), and what scientists who actually study weather have said about it. Who I obviously consider to be more credible than people using dated methods to do what is essentially guesswork.

But if you've got some passages you could quote me or screenshot for me, I'd be genuinely interested.

[PACOX]

We had our first "cold" day in FL. I sure hope not.