The Brexit aftermath thread

[Edge-]

The days of Theresa the appeaser are numbered as she holds the minority view to remain in the EU, reluctantly serving the will of the people, leaving but not believing in it. The next PM due very shortly will not hold that view, will represent the majority view and voter confidence in the Brexit negotiations will return and soar.

So...still clinging to fantasies, then. That's disappointing.

[Kiri]

I plan for both, but I guess I'm just a sucker who enjoys not being caught with his pants down in case things don't go as hoped.

You have a real fucking weird world view, dude.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.



And Germany is spending "all its time"? Come off it, your arguments are entirely based off of you literally making shit up now.

And yes, businesses do have plans for best and worst case scenarios.



*ehem*

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-br...KBN1D726R?il=0



You were saying?

Not sure if you are actually trying to convince Dribbles here...
He's so far gone, the UK could decide to nuke itself and he would hail it as a positive because people from the EU would not want to go there anymore.

[Nigel Tufnel]

The next PM due very shortly will not hold that view, will represent the majority view and voter confidence in the Brexit negotiations will return and soar.

next pm odds

next pm odds are actually in favour of Corbyn

what i can't for the life of me understand is why Jacob R-M is in fourth place

how it's possible that this catholic fascist can even be considered a viable option as leader of this country illustrates, plainly, how fucked the UK is - we vote on the basis of novelty alone. Anything to stick two fingers up to the establishment

[Slant]

You want more? I have already given you several. But sure you want more I am obliged, warning there are thousands.

Leaked German military doc predicts EU collapse

Feel free to ask for more, always happy to help.

I'm not sure how someone can be daft enough to think wargames are real. When you watched Wargames, did you miss the bit where the military does this type of thing all the time? When I was conscripted back in the day (and with me brother, too), they openly told us that current wargames of that time (90s) absolutely had options for a Russian attack. The game plan was literally to use German troops as cannon fodder until "the real army" from the US fixes the invasion for us.

As you know, that never happened. But military people aren't really fond of going into crisis situations without a plan. So while they're sitting in their bases, training for an eventuality that hopefully never happens, they're also planning theoretical scenarios. Mostly to just train the process of planning campaigns but also because... it's one less plan that they have to draw up should something happen.

But why I'm explaining this to you, I have no idea. You will now come back with some genius non-sequitur and dismiss everything I said because... reasons.

[Mormolyce]

The days of Theresa the appeaser are numbered as she holds the minority view to remain in the EU, reluctantly serving the will of the people, leaving but not believing in it. The next PM due very shortly will not hold that view, will represent the majority view and voter confidence in the Brexit negotiations will return and soar.

How quickly we turn on our own side lol.

[Slant]

Are you seriously suggesting that America has drawn up military plans for the collapse of the United States? The United Kingdom for the collapse of Britain? Australia for the collapse of Australasia?

Isn't it worrying that the head honchos of the EU spend more time and effort on its collapse than its success? No wonder survey after survey shows europeans becoming more miserable as Britons become more and more content since the Brexit vote.

Obligatory link I suppose... The UK's life satisfaction ratings have improved since the Brexit vote, official stats show

YES! That is what the military does. Every single fucking day. I bet you a trillion quadrillion gadzillion Euros that the US miltary has actual plans in their shelves should the NRA actually follow through and start a civil war. I bet you every planet on the universe that the US has and updates on a daily basis plans to invade North Korea at a moment's notice, with detailed logistic campaigns and down to the minute missile target allocation in every major military centre of North Korea that is known to the US.

What the fuck do you think the military does all day except train and plan for war? Do you think they're some sort of hippie scout group camping out in woods a lot? Jesus, the disconnect from reality is painful to witness...

- - - Updated - - -

There is a subtle difference though, if the US does have such plans, unlike the EU they are not plastered and publicly leaked all over the internet on an almost weekly basis about their impending demise. Doesn't do much for the citizens moral. Nobody seriously speculates about North Carolina leaving the USA whereas there is constant chatter about the next to exit the EU, word has it one country is already on its way out...

So glad my world is the optimistic Brexit world rather than that dank depressing, collapsing in their own words, EU world.

Nobody but the craziest lunatics takes such plans serious. It's funny that they got leaked and some people are embarassed about it, hence the posting on news sites. But actual concern? Nah. That's for the crazy conspiracy nuts. Hi Dribbles. Yes, Germany still would like to be Overlord of the world. Absolutely. This is all part of our plan hatched by our secret Emperor Adolf I.

- - - Updated - - -

...literally fucking how?

Do you ever plan ahead for things? Do you view this as a beneficial, proactive measure or a sign of weakness?

When you said that, I had an epiphany about dribbles. He's the type of person that would absolutely walk off the cliff secure in the knowledge that if he does so confidently enough and really believes it, he will actually grow wings and fly away. It's the doubters and unbelievers only that get smashed to bits when they fall. :P

- - - Updated - - -

And Germany is spending "all its time"? Come off it, your arguments are entirely based off of you literally making shit up now.

And yes, businesses do have plans for best and worst case scenarios.

The ironic bit is, today economic wisemen handed a paper to Merkel warning her about Germany overperforming too much. So while we're planning for worst case scenarios that will ruin us, we're simultaneously planning for the case in which we overheat and are doing too well.

It's like a Government of a modern democracy can do two things at once! Amazing, innit?

[dribbles]

<snip snipetty snip>
The ironic bit is, today economic wisemen handed a paper to Merkel warning her about Germany overperforming too much. So while we're planning for worst case scenarios that will ruin us, we're simultaneously planning for the case in which we overheat and are doing too well.

For sure all those poor mediterranean people struggling for their next loaf of bread will be delighted at news the German economy is booming, hopefully when Juncker comes calling for more EU contributions to make up for the British withdrawal those very same Germans will have no problems digging a little deeper....

I'll tell you whats ironic, it could very well be the failings in German democracy that deliver the kind of Brexit many millions want. Picture this, no effective German government who can carry out meaningful Brexit negotiations until Spring 2018. Theresa May limps on until then somehow, at which point she falls and perhaps a new UK general election or Conservative leadership contest which takes us to after summer 2018. Tick tock we are out of time, no deal and a hard brexit. How can people like me who wanted that all along lose?

I'll even raise a glass of liebfraumilch to that!

[Shkar]

Some more examples of disaster preparation:

http://www.nytimes.com/1989/03/28/bu...l?pagewanted=1
http://www.nytimes.com/1982/08/13/us...-atom-war.html
http://trib.com/news/state-and-regio...0f58c00bd.html
http://blogforarizona.net/post-apoca...rizona-senate/

[zealo]

An amusing quote from Germany's finance minister, Peter Altmaier, regarding the stand-off:

Altmaier said: “My answer was, listen, when a couple marries for 40 years, [they have] three children and they have a house, a home, two cars and a boat and decide to get divorced, it is fairly difficult for this couple to have a win-win situation for both sides. It is something that is perhaps a win-win situation for the lawyers.”

source

Two cars and a boat?

Really?

Because, clearly, that's what most people can relate to. How many of us own a fucking boat?

What analogy would he come up with if it were the EU negotiating a Greek exit?

Two spas and a goat?

A boat doesn't have to mean a full on yacht in an analogy like this.

It really isn't that unreasonable or unlikely for someone middle class to be in possession of a boat if they live near a coastline or lake.

[Slant]

For sure all those poor mediterranean people struggling for their next loaf of bread will be delighted at news the German economy is booming, hopefully when Juncker comes calling for more EU contributions to make up for the British withdrawal those very same Germans will have no problems digging a little deeper....

I'll tell you whats ironic, it could very well be the failings in German democracy that deliver the kind of Brexit many millions want. Picture this, no effective German government who can carry out meaningful Brexit negotiations until Spring 2018. Theresa May limps on until then somehow, at which point she falls and perhaps a new UK general election or Conservative leadership contest which takes us to after summer 2018. Tick tock we are out of time, no deal and a hard brexit. How can people like me who wanted that all along lose?

I'll even raise a glass of liebfraumilch to that!

So, you basically admit you wanted disaster just for your personal amusement right from the start? Kinda proves my preconception about the typical Brexiteer right. The thing you're not aware of is... the EU will have had 2 years to prepare for Brexit economically. They don't need a deal. A deal would be nice. But no deal would really work, too. See, nobody gives a shit about 20 or 80 billion more or less in a budget that is just about 17 trillion, give or take short change of a couple billion. But long term economic developments? Those are key. And the EU is continuing to hammer out trade deal after trade deal. Not just with Britain, but with bigger fish, like Australia, down the road the US... Canada's already in the bag. This is the EU positioning itself at the centre of a global trade network that Britain will want access to.

Except, instead of having the bargain full access to full privileges of being in the EU and dictating terms as they used to, Britain will be on the other side. You know, the side that has a gdp of 2.6 trillion and is trying to manhandle advantages out of the side that has a gdp of 15 trillion. Yes, please. Do try. Do give it all the best you have. Try to blackmail the EU into concessions like you used to. You'll realise how it feels to be the small side dish to the actual meal of a trade deal with the US soon enough. But apparently, that is what you want, right?

[Mayhem]

Are you trying to spin a positive into a negative? You appear to be gloating that that is a bad thing? Most Brexiteers have never had any confidence in the chances of an EU/British deal - that's good news, no it's great news. As a no deal gets nearer and nearer the happier the people in the UK will be, that survey bears it out. True to form the EU has never negotiated anything of consequence with a major power in 40 years, what makes you think they will start now?

The EU is negotiating with Japan, that's an economy double the size of the UK while it is holding the hand of the UK to not also shoot it's other foot, and knee, and belly, and head.

Tick tock tick tock, we are really waiting for the formation of that German coalition before any chance of an EU deal, you guys have another slice of Black Forest Gateaux and take as long as you like, wait a minute, in fact why not have another election? As long as you continue with no government until after March 2019, you are making the majority of Brits very very happy.

You made it clear that you have no knowledge and no interest in learning how other countries governments work, no need to repeat your ignorance with every other post, we are all aware of it.

- - - Updated - - -

The days of Theresa the appeaser are numbered as she holds the minority view to remain in the EU, reluctantly serving the will of the people, leaving but not believing in it. The next PM due very shortly will not hold that view, will represent the majority view and voter confidence in the Brexit negotiations will return and soar.

But i thought the majority don't want any negotiations at all, damn you change your stance within four posts. Also, weren't you saying just a few pages ago that Theresa Mays government is strong and stable?

[Noradin]

Yes, but most couples don't own a boat.

You'd be surprised how many do have one.
And the analogy is apt. The EU is not some random run of the mill treaty between two average countries. The EU is wealthy, as are its member states.
Maybe he should have mentioned a swimming pool, a plane and a golf course, too, to make it more fitting. Or a small castle. Like Versailles.

[Mayhem]

Yes, but most couples don't own a boat.

He should have said kettle or vacuum cleaner or bloody cd collection.

No, it's not about what an average couple owns, but about how hard it is to split valuable items between two parties in a way that both win. Nowhere is it meant to represent an average couple and i have no idea why you think this would be necessary.

[dribbles]

So, you basically admit you wanted disaster just for your personal amusement right from the start? Kinda proves my preconception about the typical Brexiteer right. The thing you're not aware of is... the EU will have had 2 years to prepare for Brexit economically. They don't need a deal. A deal would be nice. But no deal would really work, too. See, nobody gives a shit about 20 or 80 billion more or less in a budget that is just about 17 trillion, give or take short change of a couple billion. But long term economic developments? Those are key. And the EU is continuing to hammer out trade deal after trade deal. Not just with Britain, but with bigger fish, like Australia, down the road the US... Canada's already in the bag. This is the EU positioning itself at the centre of a global trade network that Britain will want access to.

Except, instead of having the bargain full access to full privileges of being in the EU and dictating terms as they used to, Britain will be on the other side. You know, the side that has a gdp of 2.6 trillion and is trying to manhandle advantages out of the side that has a gdp of 15 trillion. Yes, please. Do try. Do give it all the best you have. Try to blackmail the EU into concessions like you used to. You'll realise how it feels to be the small side dish to the actual meal of a trade deal with the US soon enough. But apparently, that is what you want, right?

Quite the economist you are, I just hope the EU is not working to your figures. You see they have nowhere near a budget of 17 trillion except in your dreams maybe. Let's make it simple so you understand.

Imagine the EU as one big company with lots of branches, subsidaries if you will representing the 28 nations. Only a handful of those make any kind of profit for the EU plc, at least 20 make a loss and in effect are parasites to the EU host. If they were supermarket branches they'd have been shut down, sold off or liquidated in a quick fire sale to any business stupid enough to want them.

Here is the elephant in the room for you, most successful developed economies don't have these parasite nations hanging on bleeding them dry of funds and resources. America plc doesnt have them, your lauded Japan plc doesn't have them, China, Australia,Canada pick any they just don't have them. Soon the UK won't have their burden to hold them back either, the only conglomerate trying to compete with those that will have them is the EU.

How you think going forward the EU will be able to compete held back by 20 ball and chain countries makes the mind boggle. Good luck with that.

[Vankrys]

No of course I don't plan for failure, I plan for success, don't you? I guess it depends if you are a half glass full kind of person, or a half glass empty.

and the plan in case of referendum victory was for the UKIP leaders to GTFO.

nice plan

[Mayhem]

Quite the economist you are, I just hope the EU is not working to your figures. You see they have nowhere near a budget of 17 trillion except in your dreams maybe. Let's make it simple so you understand.

While his budget number quite obviously is wrong, your make it simple is as equally stupid, no wait even more stupid as you outright lie in it to make a point you don't even understand.

Imagine the EU as one big company with lots of branches, subsidaries if you will representing the 28 nations. Only a handful of those make any kind of profit for the EU plc, at least 20 make a loss and in effect are parasites to the EU host. If they were supermarket branches they'd have been shut down, sold off or liquidated in a quick fire sale to any business stupid enough to want them.

What you keep ignoring is this example is A: stupidly wrong and B: the subsidaries that make a profit are only able to do so because of the ones that don't because thanks to them they are as a whole big enough to make (sticking with your company analogy) better and more profitable offers.

Here is the elephant in the room for you, most successful developed economies don't have these parasite nations hanging on bleeding them dry of funds and resources. America plc doesnt have them, your lauded Japan plc doesn't have them, China, Australia,Canada pick any they just don't have them. Soon the UK won't have their burden to hold them back either, the only conglomerate trying to compete with those that will have them is the EU.

Here is the elephant in the room, you aren't even able to make coherent explanations when trying to make it simple.

First of, america plc has the very same problem as eu plc has, namely some states not making a profit, as has every other of your examples because there are no countries that consist of only profitable regions, you'd know that if you'd be interested in your own country, but you aren't because all you do is posturing and trash talking.

How you think going forward the EU will be able to compete held back by 20 ball and chain countries makes the mind boggle. Good luck with that.

Is anyone surprised that this boggles his mind?

[Slant]

Quite the economist you are, I just hope the EU is not working to your figures. You see they have nowhere near a budget of 17 trillion except in your dreams maybe. Let's make it simple so you understand.

[...]


How you think going forward the EU will be able to compete held back by 20 ball and chain countries makes the mind boggle. Good luck with that.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/...PPPC&grp=1&a=1

Okay, so I guess I'm having trouble with the fucked up ways English writes numbers. Let's put it into what the IMF says...

17,112.922 billions. What's another word for that? Wikipedia quotes it as 17.1 trillion dollars. I think I'll trust them enough to say that's what it is.

How I think the EU will go forward? As the centre of global trade, really. What else do you call something that has trade deals going into all directions making goods flow through Europe into all directions? How's it feel to watch Australian or Japanese goods pass through Europe, be used in producing other products that get sold to the US all the while passing the UK by? That's the prospect you're looking at. Do you think the EU will stop working on just improving it's economic power position because the UK decided to throw a fit?

[dribbles]

First of, america plc has the very same problem as eu plc has, namely some states not making a profit, as has every other of your examples because there are no countries that consist of only profitable regions, you'd know that if you'd be interested in your own country, but you aren't because all you do is posturing and trash talking.

Tsk tsk, I have been told off and not to compare US states to EU countries, but you are allowed? Ok then it must be ok here we go....

Here is a picture of a common method of transport that many people use to commute to work just outside many EU capitals in the 21st C



Presumably you will have no problem furnishing the same thing happening in many US states? No I wager not.

[Slant]

Tsk tsk, I have been told off and not to compare US states to EU countries, but you are allowed? Ok then it must be ok here we go....

Here is a picture of a common method of transport that many people use to commute to work just outside many EU capitals in the 21st C



Presumably you will have no problem furnishing the same thing happening in many US states? No I wager not.

Yeah I know. Cheap shot. Couldn't resist. :P

[Mayhem]

Tsk tsk, I have been told off and not to compare US states to EU countries, but you are allowed? Ok then it must be ok here we go....

And yet you kept comparing not only the US but pretty much every other country, despite the EU being not one single country.

Here is a picture of a common method of transport that many people use to commute to work just outside many EU capitals in the 21st C

Presumably you will have no problem furnishing the same thing happening in many US states? No I wager not.

I was using your example to show you that you are wrong but of course you ignore that part and stick to "ah so we are allowed to compare them?".

I mean, you went from profitable as a country to means of transportation of some of its citizens for reasons unknown. /golfclap

The unreasonable and outright made up stuff to successfully bash the EU is strong with this one.