BfA could be a lot further away then we think

[Taedae]

Content this expac was also spread really thin, which means they actually tried to stretch it for a reasonable release (8 months after 7.3 release)

Yeah, I agree with that.

[Dawnseven]

1) You can't speculate based on the full history of WoW because things changed, and 2) Blizzard almost always goes well beyond everyone's best guess (forget earliest hopes), but that said, Legion beta started in mid-May and launched at the end of the August. That was 3 1/2 months. No matter what you thought of it specifically it was pretty robust and certainly needed a lot of testing. WoWChakra's interview with Shani Edwards & Ray Cobo noted that "the team is hoping to start beta early next year". Now, they said the same sort of thing for Legion (and the speculation thread was nearly breathless with anticipation every single day after Feb 1) so take it with a grain of salt, but if Blizz actually DID start beta in 1Q I think they COULD release in 2Q (doubtful) or 3Q easily. The point being, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that it we're looking at 4Q. We'll have to see when beta starts and how early "early" is. I'm thinking April/May beta and Aug/Sept release again. IF it's that then hey ... 9-10 months for a final raid tier is much better than 14.

[Nyel]

Like I said, you children make shit up in your heads, then bitch about the stuff you make up. And yes, 'children'. Adults dont do this.

Children? I'd say we are realists, not children. I find it absurd that we are still discussing this topic after the last 7 years. It's ridiculous that some guys really regurgitate the same nonsense again and again after every expansion announcement.

- - - Updated - - -

1) You can't speculate based on the full history of WoW because things changed, and 2) Blizzard almost always goes well beyond everyone's best guess (forget earliest hopes), but that said, Legion beta started in mid-May and launched at the end of the August. That was 3 1/2 months. No matter what you thought of it specifically it was pretty robust and certainly needed a lot of testing. WoWChakra's interview with Shani Edwards & Ray Cobo noted that "the team is hoping to start beta early next year". Now, they said the same sort of thing for Legion (and the speculation thread was nearly breathless with anticipation every single day after Feb 1) so take it with a grain of salt, but if Blizz actually DID start beta in 1Q I think they COULD release in 2Q (doubtful) or 3Q easily. The point being, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that it we're looking at 4Q. We'll have to see when beta starts and how early "early" is. I'm thinking April/May beta and Aug/Sept release again. IF it's that then hey ... 9-10 months for a final raid tier is much better than 14.

What has changed? Nothing has changed. Guys like you said it after Cataclysm, after MoP, after WoD and you're saying it again now - nothing changed. It will be the usual drought with the usual release frame of +24-26 months of an expansion.

Legion beta was bad. They didn't listen to any feedback. Most of the feedback about specs was neglected. They haven't even patched all specs into a somewhat similar state, more than one year after release.

Release in Q2? When? Only 6 months of Antorus? And another feature patch 7.3.5 in between? Come on. If anything is an indicator that BfA will launch towards the end of the year it's 7.3.5 which will give you an improved alt leveling experience to counter the usual drought.

[clevin]

Children? I'd say we are realists, not children. I find it absurd that we are still discussing this topic after the last 7 years. It's ridiculous that some guys really regurgitate the same nonsense again and again after every expansion announcement.

You mistake me. I'm not saying it will be soon and I agree that people should expect about what we've gotten in the past. But you're the one making predictions that aren't likely and you're the one interpreting a vague statement with supposed exactitude.

The best way to figure out a likely release date is to look at when they've released beta post-announcement and about how long beta usually is.

IF they don't combine alpha and beta, beta tends to be about 5 months. MoP was the longest at 6. So, if they do a beta (not alpha, BETA) on March 1 it's very likely we'll see launch around August or September. If they drop beta in April, take 5 months onto that and you're at September. Etc, etc. From this you can see that it's VERY unlikely we get a launch in summer unless you think the beta (again, BETA, not alpha) drops in January or early February. It's much more likely to be July-Sept. It *could* move into October (which would make your Q4 technically right) but that would mean beta in May which feels late. November or later feels too pessimistic - that would set beta around June or July and IIRC they've never had that large a gap between announce and beta.

But calling 'In 2018' as any given date now is, yes, childish, esp if you then get upset about it.

[Nyel]

You mistake me. I'm not saying it will be soon and I agree that people should expect about what we've gotten in the past. But you're the one making predictions that aren't likely and you're the one interpreting a vague statement with supposed exactitude.

The best way to figure out a likely release date is to look at when they've released beta post-announcement and about how long beta usually is.

IF they don't combine alpha and beta, beta tends to be about 5 months. MoP was the longest at 6. So, if they do a beta (not alpha, BETA) on March 1 it's very likely we'll see launch around August or September. If they drop beta in April, take 5 months onto that and you're at September. Etc, etc. From this you can see that it's VERY unlikely we get a launch in summer unless you think the beta (again, BETA, not alpha) drops in January or early February. It's much more likely to be July-Sept. It *could* move into October (which would make you're Q4 technically right) but that would mean beta in May which feels late.

But calling 'In 2018' as any given date now is, yes, childish, esp if you then get upset about it.

I don't get upset about anything, I know Blizzard. I'm playing WoW since 2006. I experienced every launch of every expansion and I remember every statement they made about content drought, faster content, annual expansions etc. All of these statements are empty phrases, have always been empty phrases and will always be empty phrases. It's Blizzard. It's not like they've become a totally different studio in the last 2 years. "In 2018" does mean they don't know when they'll release it. And that means that they are far away from being able to tell anything about it which means that it will happen later than sooner.

Again, there is still 7.3.5. If Antorus opening would be the end of Legion I'd agree that a "Summer" (=Q3) release could happen. But there is 7.3.5 and 7.3.5 is all about giving us the illusion of content to counter the usual drought. How can you not see this? Why the hell should they give us 7.3.5 with Battle for Azeroth features if the expansion will be released mid 2018? It doesn't make any sense. 7.3.5 is their way to give us some BfA stuff that's already done to have something for the drought. I mean it's not even a bad idea to be honest, it just shows how lazy Blizzard is.

I am absolutely sure BfA will launch in November. Please quote me on that in 7-8 months when they announce the release date, if I'm wrong I'll happily acknowledge it.

[Brewhan]

Q4 2018 sounds likely probably december 30th for the memes

[Dawnseven]

What has changed? Nothing has changed. Guys like you said it after Cataclysm, after MoP, after WoD and you're saying it again now - nothing changed. It will be the usual drought with the usual release frame of +24-26 months of an expansion.

Legion beta was bad. They didn't listen to any feedback. Most of the feedback about specs was neglected. They haven't even patched all specs into a somewhat similar state, more than one year after release.

Release in Q2? When? Only 6 months of Antorus? And another feature patch 7.3.5 in between? Come on. If anything is an indicator that BfA will launch towards the end of the year it's 7.3.5 which will give you an improved alt leveling experience to counter the usual drought.

And some of "you guys" can't be pleased no matter what. /shrug To each his own. You're right. Nothing has changed. The team is the exact the same size, has the same people, etc.

The WoD beta was 22% shorter than the MoP beta. The Legion beta was 18% shorter than the WoD beta, but nothing has changed. Does that mean that BfA's beta will be ~20% shorter? No. Does it mean that it will be the same, or longer? No. It doesn't mean anything. But if the last beta was 111 days, and people are inclined to want to pull something out of their ass for the purposes of speculation, it's as good a guess as anything else. What's the basis for assuming a 35-50% increase?

[Nyel]

And some of "you guys" can't be pleased no matter what. /shrug To each his own. You're right. Nothing has changed. The team is the exact the same size, has the same people, etc.

The WoD beta was 22% shorter than the MoP beta. The Legion beta was 18% shorter than the WoD beta, but nothing has changed. Does that mean that BfA's beta will be ~20% shorter? No. Does it mean that it will be the same, or longer? No. It doesn't mean anything. But if the last beta was 111 days, and people are inclined to want to pull something out of their ass for the purposes of speculation, it's as good a guess as anything else. What's the basis for assuming a 35-50% increase?

Has nothing to do with being pleased or not. I'm pleased with the game itself but not with Blizzard or their design approaches. Why not? Because they let us down every single time since Cataclysm.

[styil]

And some of "you guys" can't be pleased no matter what. /shrug To each his own. You're right. Nothing has changed. The team is the exact the same size, has the same people, etc.

The WoD beta was 22% shorter than the MoP beta. The Legion beta was 18% shorter than the WoD beta, but nothing has changed. Does that mean that BfA's beta will be ~20% shorter? No. Does it mean that it will be the same, or longer? No. It doesn't mean anything. But if the last beta was 111 days, and people are inclined to want to pull something out of their ass for the purposes of speculation, it's as good a guess as anything else. What's the basis for assuming a 35-50% increase?

It doesn't matter how long the beta is. What matters is how long the Alpha + Beta is.

And historically, the Alpha + Beta cycles have been similar in duration.

[Kithelle]

The more that we hear about BfA, the more it seems like this expansion may be a lot further away then we think. Consider the following:

1. The novel for BfA has been delayed to June 2018.
As the novel is tied closely to the expansion, this suggests that BfA could also be delayed to keep the time between the release of the book and the expansion the same.

2. They have mentioned that the goal is to release BfA in 2018.
This goal is something they are trying to aim for, but not something they are certain that they will achieve, which opens up the possibility of a 2019 release date and leads us to point 3:

3. The Legion cinematic released at Blizzcon announced a Summer 2016 release date.
The BfA cinematic released in the same event did not announce a Summer 2018 release date. If they were sure about a Summer release for Legion at the time of Blizzcon, you'd think that if BfA was going to be released in Summer 2018 it'd also be announced at Blizzcon.

4. Many basic gameplay features shown at Blizzcon very incomplete.
- zero class changes
- almost all dungeons not really in development
- almost no info on warfronts
- island content very early stages of development

5. No sign of Alpha, let alone beta
And there is still patch 7.3.5 to test for a couple of months before we even begin those.

Putting all of this together, it seems like it is almost a given that BfA might be a lot further away than we think. Spring (Sept+) 2018 is almost a certainty, but Winter 2018 is now also a possibility.

I don't see what the novel has to do with it, Jun 2018 is still months before if they released BfA on the same day as Legion.
2018 is a very broad term, though 2019 may be possible if the shit hits the fan.
They obviously don't have a date set like they did with Legion...and even then they were pushing it...Legion was pretty close to fall 2016
0 class changes because they already said they're not planning to make many major changes to classes.
Obviously BfA isn't as developed as Legion was...hence the later alpha and later release date

[Sastank]

A fall release. Oh no! Panic! Quit WoW! Aaaaahh