Mafia 95: The Daily Newspaper

[dupti]

Vote Count:

Valyrian(1): Kryllian (#189)
Reticence(1): Valyrian (#198)
Cruelle(1): Virothe (#219)

Not voting (5): Cruelle, Graeham, Largehorn, listo, Reticence

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 3:

[Largehorn]

Alright...

I've thought about it and I think I'm going to

Vote: Valyrian

I wanted to make sure that I gave him last night to do more than just one post and gone. He didn't come back. I'm honestly not sure how much pressure is going to get out of him (especially if he never comes back).

As for other's, at this point I have to agree with Danner's assessment of Virothe and Listo. That unfortunately makes me think that Virothe is scum... I just can't trust him.

No one else feels off. We've got people playing pretty "standard" them games. Guess this means I'm do for a reread as well.

[Kryllian]

I think my main issue with 3 right now is if the neutral went their way it would become 8v4 but if it went our way its 9v3. Guess its just one of those things with a neutral role being able to get a new win con...

I've been struggling with that exact conundrum. Either way it would swing the balance to town or scum depending on how the third party landed. Perhaps the mod expected Crackle to go out before he could align given he was due an early lynch and expected that it wouldn't be an issue.

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I agree that if it is 3 scum we need to be cautious as two town voting on a third townie could cause a quick lynch.

For those who haven't voted can you at least throw out a FOS so we can imply pressure on that person without a formal vote?

[Deleted]

I've been struggling with that exact conundrum. Either way it would swing the balance to town or scum depending on how the third party landed. Perhaps the mod expected Crackle to go out before he could align given he was due an early lynch and expected that it wouldn't be an issue.

I think it was meant to swing both ways. So early game Crackle would more than likely pick town. If the VT died it would free Crackle to pick another player possibly scum if it was later in the game given that scum percentage sometimes gets higher as the game goes on. I wonder if he would appear innocent then guilty if he had been investigated twice.

I am very unsure about today. For some reason I feel like the people who report for the paper are supposed to be town, yet obviously we know at least one of them is not, who has not been identified because they didn't claim the article. So I would say for sure the Mafia can post in the paper, how many articles can they post? One that we know of, what if there is another? We have also speculated the mafia can stop the paper going to print, not sure if they can or not it could also be one of Largehorn's examples.

Still hoping Val comes back.

As Kryll said could we be careful not to put anyone at L2 please. Easier if you state you intention to vote rather than vote.

[Reticence]

As for other's, at this point I have to agree with Danner's assessment of Virothe and Listo. That unfortunately makes me think that Virothe is scum... I just can't trust him.

D:

You're going to have to explain this one to me. Didn't you say that Danner suggested Virothe was town? Or am I missing a joke?

I think it was meant to swing both ways. So early game Crackle would more than likely pick town. If the VT died it would free Crackle to pick another player possibly scum if it was later in the game given that scum percentage sometimes gets higher as the game goes on. I wonder if he would appear innocent then guilty if he had been investigated twice.

Possibly, but that leads into concerns I have about the setup.

With twelve starting players, 3 scum comes out to 25% and 2 comes out to 16.6%. At first glance, 3 seems more likely, but both scenarios require additional tweaking in order to reach a reasonable scum-to-town ratio. Crackle's role definitely qualifies as anti-town, but that leaves us with four possibilities:

2 scum + town freelancer = 17%
2 scum + scum freelancer = 25%
3 scum + town freelancer = 25%
3 scum + scum freelancer = 33%

Only one of these scenarios satisfies the standard rule of thirds. Now, Crackle did have the capacity to switch teams to fiddle with the ratio as the game went on, but there are a couple things to keep in mind based on his role-card:

1) His client did not know his identity, so he could not coordinate with them at all without claiming.
2) He could switch teams, but only if his current client died. So not only is his team losing the deceased, but they are immediately losing Crackle and hoping that he gets hired by another member of their team (if they even know he's there).
3) He could only have two clients before he was locked into a survivor win condition.

Ultimately, his role is rather self-balancing in a vacuum, but in the context of game flow it strikes me as exceptionally swingy, so it's difficult to imagine that the game is balanced around the assumption that he fulfills part of the scum ratio. Because of this, I can't shake the feeling that even if there are three scum, there is also something else out there that isn't town, which complicates the day even further.

I'm confident that Listo is town. I'm wary about Virothe, but leaning town for him as well. Despite my internal conflicts, I am still most uneasy about Largehorn and am likely to vote for him again unless I find something more compelling.

[Largehorn]

D:

You're going to have to explain this one to me. Didn't you say that Danner suggested Virothe was town? Or am I missing a joke?

Virothe is too good as scum is what that meant. It's the Israel 10th Man protocol. The "too good to be true".

I'm hedging my emotions just in case he isn't what I believe him to be, so the knife hurts just a little less as it enters my back. You won't see me voting Virothe unless something crazy happens. I was just tossing it out there.

[Graeham]

I was hoping Val would have made a followup post by now. We've still got roughly 24 hours until the deadline so there's plenty of time...but I do hope Val shows up again soon.

[Largehorn]

Ultimately, his role is rather self-balancing in a vacuum, but in the context of game flow it strikes me as exceptionally swingy, so it's difficult to imagine that the game is balanced around the assumption that he fulfills part of the scum ratio. Because of this, I can't shake the feeling that even if there are three scum, there is also something else out there that isn't town, which complicates the day even further.

I'm leaning toward it being more likely that there is either 3 scum + Crackle or 2 + Crackle + Another Freelancer. That's really just my gut though for much the same reasons you listed here.

[Virothe]

Virothe is too good as scum is what that meant..

Well, I don't think there is a thing as "to good" at being scum, and my scum play was always built on just not changing how I played the game from one faction to the other or doing different enough stuff each game so that it made it harder for people to recognize me as town vs scum me.

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I'm leaning toward it being more likely that there is either 3 scum + Crackle or 2 + Crackle + Another Freelancer. That's really just my gut though for much the same reasons you listed here.

Problem with this is, while Scum don't need an "Assured" recruit, there would have been a much greater chance of both freelancers joining town and that seems inherently lopsided. Maybe a freelancer + Mafia Recruit, but I can't really see it being 2 side swappers.

Also guys with less than a day left we need some pressure out in the next bit here if we're hoping to get something non-last minute out of people.

[Largehorn]

Well, I don't think there is a thing as "to good" at being scum, and my scum play was always built on just not changing how I played the game from one faction to the other or doing different enough stuff each game so that it made it harder for people to recognize me as town vs scum me.

Yeah, basically what I meant. It's just paranoia. I'm a very paranoid person XD

Problem with this is, while Scum don't need an "Assured" recruit, there would have been a much greater chance of both freelancers joining town and that seems inherently lopsided. Maybe a freelancer + Mafia Recruit, but I can't really see it being 2 side swappers.

I didn't necessarily mean a side swapper, but maybe another third party. I could see the mafia recruit though being a definite option. I'm really leaning more toward the 3 + Crackle.

[Virothe]

Yeah, basically what I meant. It's just paranoia. I'm a very paranoid person XD

I didn't necessarily mean a side swapper, but maybe another third party. I could see the mafia recruit though being a definite option. I'm really leaning more toward the 3 + Crackle.

Paranoia in this game isn't the worst thing to have, but I haven't played for like a year at this point so I would say my current skill is more TBD than anything

And ya the 3+crack is my guess, but until we start hitting scum it's hard to say ><

[Reticence]

Vote: Largehorn

Let's see if history repeats itself.

Virothe is too good as scum is what that meant. It's the Israel 10th Man protocol. The "too good to be true".

I'm hedging my emotions just in case he isn't what I believe him to be, so the knife hurts just a little less as it enters my back. You won't see me voting Virothe unless something crazy happens. I was just tossing it out there.

Oh, I see. It sounded like you were spinning reads around, which was not helping my opinion of you.

[Largehorn]

Oh, I see. It sounded like you were spinning reads around, which was not helping my opinion of you.

Yeah. No worries. Sorry for the momentary confusion there.

[Kryllian]

So I've been puzzling though who could have performed the N1 Kill - Looking at possible players still in the game.

Unlikely

listo - He was tracked and went nowhere. This doesn't negate the possibility he's scum who didn't kill that night but at least clears him N1.
Large - Interviewed Ret so unlikely he can interview at night and kill.
Greaham - submitted the joke so unlikely he can do that and kill.


Possible N1 Killers

Cruelle
Kryllian
Reticence
Valyrian
Virothe

Obviously I can clear myself so my vote will go to one of the other four unless someone sees a way to clear one of them that I'm not thinking of offhand.

[Reticence]

Large - Interviewed Ret so unlikely he can interview at night and kill.

I was interviewed during the day, so that's not exactly a reliable alibi.

[Largehorn]

Large - Interviewed Ret so unlikely he can interview at night and kill.

In an effort to be fair and honest, I can submit my interview question at any point doing the Day/Night cycle. It will only be put into the paper though if the person I ask responds before the beginning of the next day. I don't actually have a "Night action".

It's just the interview question which can be done at any time and writing the articles.

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I was interviewed during the day, so that's not exactly a reliable alibi.

Yeah... what he said.

[Kryllian]

Fair enough. Technically that puts Large back on the possible NK list. I willing though to believe for balance that if he submitted a question during the day he can't also take action at night Unless he's part of a very small scum squad and needs all the advantages he can get.

[listo95]

listo - He was tracked and went nowhere. This doesn't negate the possibility he's scum who didn't kill that night but at least clears him N1.
Greaham - submitted the joke so unlikely he can do that and kill.

In case it wasn't obvious Graeham did the wuh wuh I did the joke.

[Kryllian]

you're right Listo, brain not functioning after working all day. I've been thinking Wuh Wuh and putting it together with Sunggyu and that makes me think of Shoggoth and i'm going insane.

Did you submit your joke at night or during the day?

[listo95]

you're right Listo, brain not functioning after working all day. I've been thinking Wuh Wuh and putting it together with Sunggyu and that makes me think of Shoggoth and i'm going insane.

Did you submit your joke at night or during the day?

I can submit day or night. That joke I put in during the day.

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If the paper had come out today the joke would have been

Where does Red Velvet like to eat?
Wendy's