Might as well start now....
As you know Blizzard reported extremely disappointing sub numbers for Q3. What will the results for Q4 be?
Im going to say 1 mil - 1.5mil sub loss for the following reasons....
1) Accelerating sub losses i believe will result in a vicious sub loss cycle especially on dying realms...Blizz doesnt seem to care and people i think will not pay $100+ to transfer their main and alts to a realm where they can actually play the game
2) TOR will be released as a direct sub competitor to WOW at a time when wow is the weakest and vulenrable it has ever been in its history
3) Compelling other single player**edited**/ non MMO games from many genres...Skyrim, BF3, MW3
4) Patch 4.3 looks to be much of the same....except for transmog which i doubt will be enough to stem the tide...keep in mind Q3 saw the release of firelands and resulted in INCREASED sub losses.
5) Blizzcon/MOP beyond a shadow of a doubt has divided the community more than any previous xpac....although it will peek the interests of many, i doubt they will resub in Q4 just to play 4.3 and then have their gear/gains erased with a new xpac (assuming they resubbed just for MOP in general)
6) Diablo 3 coming out early next year and the hyper power juggernaut GW2 shortly after may prevent people from wanting to continue to invest time in WOW if they already had made the decision to definitely move on to those games....
These are my opinions and i believe the net effect will be devestating....what do you guys think?