SW:TOR First-Week Subscriptions - Game Going Downhill?

[swdan]

Where are they? Making profit. Sure, not the numbers that WoW's making, but they're still making enough profit to continue supporting the playerbase and releasing new content.

as i know they are going f2p?

[Last Starfighter]

Ahh...there it is. So you're telling us you tested beta end game HOWEVER, your first post originally states that you somehow got away with your free month without choosing a subscription option. Which, anyone currently in the game knows you that wouldn't have happened. However this here, this gold quote is more the truth than we could have hoped for it seems. You played beta. Beta client =/= retail release.

There it is folks. OP claims the game is going downhill based off of his experience in playing the beta and his own comparisons to the game from WoW.

People like him can't stand to think that many people are going from wow to swtor. He can't stand it. It enrages him. So, just like anything else, people like him can't wait a few years to see where it actually is. Because they need the satisfaction now. They need to think they are getting people to believe their bullshit so they can stop sitting at their computer nerdraging. The OP most likely hasn't played. Beta or live. He skims over a few threads, and then gets pieces of info, and comes on here nerdraging.

---------- Post added 2011-12-31 at 10:42 AM ----------

dude do you have a life? like holy shit who gives a fuck

No. No he doesn't.

[Seezer]

This week, Bioware released a press statement stating that they had "1-million active users" and that they had shattered all previous MMO subscription records for launch. That's great for Bioware, but when the actual statement is analyzed, Bioware does not mean 1-million purchased subs, but rather 1-million active users, many of whom could potentially be riding the 30-days free time period that comes with the game. Now, of course, some people are reporting that you need to first purchase time to redeem that 30-days of free game-time, but I personally did not have to do that. My 30-days free was given to me after I put my game-code in. No credit card or other billing method was input from me.

SOURCE:
http:[SPACE]//www[SPACE].swtor [SPACE].c[SPACE]om/news/press-release/20111223


Remove spaces within parentheses.


Analyzing the trend that emerges from previous MMO launches, it is obvious that as the new-game stupor wears off of many players, and also as the holidays come to a close, many gamers will stop playing. Some may even stop playing because they are disappointed with the game altogether. Given all of the aforementioned information, the only logical deduction that can be contrived from this is that subs will eventually nose-dive below 1 million. This is worrying news to anyone still enjoying the game and hoping for long-term vitality, such as I, since nose-diving subs means a nose-diving ability for Bioware to produce content since their over-all revenue will nose-dive.

Where does this leave Bioware? How many REAL PAID subs do you think they really have? If you are going to speculate, at least provide a substantive origin for that speculation.


Also, another alarming logistical issue facing Bioware is this:


Given that ~$300 million was spent on this game. They currently have "1-million active users." This means that:

Assuming that all copies sold were the normal copy, and not the limited edition copy (since the limited edition sales are assumed to be neglible within the over-all picture.)

THE FOLLOWING IS A CALCULATION OF *GROSS* SALES.

+
$59.99*(1-million) = 59,990,000.
$14.99*(1-million) = 14,990,000.
= $74980000

This is their gross sales. This is also overly-generous number due to the fact that it assumes that every one of their "active-accounts" purchased as sub (which was not required as mentioned earlier in this post), and this also assumes that they all purchased the 1-month sub, which is most profitable for Bioware, since the 3-month deal actually works out to $13.99 per month, identical to WoW's payment system.

This means that as of now they have $74,980,000 gross. When you take out the retail cut from the box sales, the actual number is easily 30%-40% lower. This means that Bioware has 300 million - 74,980,000 left to make TO BREAK EVEN. That number divided by 14,990,000, assuming that their subs stay at current levels AT LEAST (they will very likely just decline), and also assuming that the most profitable payment plan will be chosen by subscribers, Bioware will have to have 15.01067 months of >/= 0.00% growth to BREAK EVEN FROM THEIR INITIAL PRODUCTION COSTS. Only after that will they be making a profit.

No profit for a corporation in the marketplace = bad news and lack of corporate motivation. My calculations do not even factor in the added debt that Bioware will accumulate while it pays its customer service/content production/etc staff while the game runs. It does not even FACTOR IN the costs of server upkeep.

Bioware is in some uncertain waters for the moment, and things are looking as optimistic as a M1-Abrams tank would be for a kitten.





TL;DR: Bioware's lack of logistical forethought and lack of expected perpetuated success over the next 15 months means that this game is headed downhill fast. Read the BOLDED calculations for elaboration on this. Better yet, read the post and educate yourself.





Overall source:

htt[SPACE]p[SPACE]:/[SPACE]/en.[SPACE]wikipedia.[SPACE]org/w[SPACE]iki/Star_Wars:[SPACE]_The_Old_Republic#Development

Remove "[SPACE]."



[B][U]Citation of NUMBERS:



htt[REMOVE]p://ww[REMOVE]w[REMOVE].1[REMOVE]up.[REMOVE]c[REMOVE]om/n[REMOVE]ews/ea-louse[REMOVE]-blows-lid-old-re[REMOVE]public-budget-warhammer-failure [REMOVE]

Wait...wait...wait. You're actually only counting 1 single month in subs? ROFL. 1 single month? Your $74980000 number is totally invalid. That's all based off of a single month. And hey, for a single month. That is massive. For a brand new game. Now add in the other 11 months in the year. Add in more people buying copies off the game. Because you know, and I know. That it's just that feckin' good. Almost everyone in my guild is playing it now after a few of us started talking about it. And they're loving it. Say hello to the new Sheriff in town bud. And dry them tears.

[mirthen]

I can personally disprove all of your calculations by offering one fact.... people are still buying the game. Myself, i just paid for the game (the $80 digital deluxe version) 24 hours ago round about. that is after the first week sales. I also know a few people who are "on the fence" on buying the game, and are leaning towards buying it. My wife however is in those prelaunch numbers as she paid for it on the 10th of dec. I very much plan on going into my first "paid" month of play after my 30 days are up.

People will continue to buy the game today, tomorrow, and far off into the future. Some are waiting to see if it holds up, some waiting for friends to tell them how good/bad it is, some might not even know they want it yet. All of the 10+ million WoW subscribers did not pick up the game on launch day of vanilla. Myself, i started into WoW shortly before the end of BC when LK was on the horizon.

I enjoy the game, a lot. I don't know how long i will enjoy playing it, but i will continue to play until that pleasure has passed. Maybe next month, or perhaps next year.... maybe 5 years.... who knows.

[Deleted]

Wow, just wow, reading this thread is like watching a train wreck in action. It is so horrible that you want to look away but you just can't.

I have never seen anyone go to such lengths to... I hardly even know exactly what the OP has been trying to achieve with this thread.

You, OP, are ridicilously funny to watch, it's like sitting in a safari jeep watching the animals do their worst. You're a mythomaniac.

[Blznsmri]

I rofl'd down three flights of stairs as I read this...

OP: Don't edit wiki pages to support your arguments.

Detectivekr: You're my hero.

[Uncle Julian]

So you're trying to stay a long-term strategy is a bad idea? I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. Even if they lost subs and no merchandise income, let's say it moves up from 15 months to 2 years: it's still a money-maker in the long run. I'm far to lazy and uninterested to read your links and nit-pick every detail, but from what I read it seems you just aren't a fan of Star Wars/Bioware/EA or something which is fine as it is your opinion, but I don't see it affecting my high opinion of a fun game

[saberon]

Isn't it considered exceptional if a new business turns a profit within 12 months?

And you're claiming that because SW:TOR failed to turn a profit on day 1 it will a) no longer be popular and people will quit, and b) Bioware made a huge mistake?

Are you actually making those claims?

[Deleted]

not this thread again

[Alanar]

This week, Bioware released a press statement stating that they had "1-million active users" and that they had shattered all previous MMO subscription records for launch. That's great for Bioware, but when the actual statement is analyzed, Bioware does not mean 1-million purchased subs, but rather 1-million active users, many of whom could potentially be riding the 30-days free time period that comes with the game. Now, of course, some people are reporting that you need to first purchase time to redeem that 30-days of free game-time, but I personally did not have to do that. My 30-days free was given to me after I put my game-code in. No credit card or other billing method was input from me.

SOURCE:
http:[SPACE]//www[SPACE].swtor [SPACE].c[SPACE]om/news/press-release/20111223


Remove spaces within parentheses.


Analyzing the trend that emerges from previous MMO launches, it is obvious that as the new-game stupor wears off of many players, and also as the holidays come to a close, many gamers will stop playing. Some may even stop playing because they are disappointed with the game altogether. Given all of the aforementioned information, the only logical deduction that can be contrived from this is that subs will eventually nose-dive below 1 million. This is worrying news to anyone still enjoying the game and hoping for long-term vitality, such as I, since nose-diving subs means a nose-diving ability for Bioware to produce content since their over-all revenue will nose-dive.

Where does this leave Bioware? How many REAL PAID subs do you think they really have? If you are going to speculate, at least provide a substantive origin for that speculation.


Also, another alarming logistical issue facing Bioware is this:


Given that ~$300 million was spent on this game. They currently have "1-million active users." This means that:

Assuming that all copies sold were the normal copy, and not the limited edition copy (since the limited edition sales are assumed to be neglible within the over-all picture.)

THE FOLLOWING IS A CALCULATION OF *GROSS* SALES.

+
$59.99*(1-million) = 59,990,000.
$14.99*(1-million) = 14,990,000.
= $74980000

This is their gross sales. This is also overly-generous number due to the fact that it assumes that every one of their "active-accounts" purchased as sub (which was not required as mentioned earlier in this post), and this also assumes that they all purchased the 1-month sub, which is most profitable for Bioware, since the 3-month deal actually works out to $13.99 per month, identical to WoW's payment system.

This means that as of now they have $74,980,000 gross. When you take out the retail cut from the box sales, the actual number is easily 30%-40% lower. This means that Bioware has 300 million - 74,980,000 left to make TO BREAK EVEN. That number divided by 14,990,000, assuming that their subs stay at current levels AT LEAST (they will very likely just decline), and also assuming that the most profitable payment plan will be chosen by subscribers, Bioware will have to have 15.01067 months of >/= 0.00% growth to BREAK EVEN FROM THEIR INITIAL PRODUCTION COSTS. Only after that will they be making a profit.

No profit for a corporation in the marketplace = bad news and lack of corporate motivation. My calculations do not even factor in the added debt that Bioware will accumulate while it pays its customer service/content production/etc staff while the game runs. It does not even FACTOR IN the costs of server upkeep.

Bioware is in some uncertain waters for the moment, and things are looking as optimistic as a M1-Abrams tank would be for a kitten.





TL;DR: Bioware's lack of logistical forethought and lack of expected perpetuated success over the next 15 months means that this game is headed downhill fast. Read the BOLDED calculations for elaboration on this. Better yet, read the post and educate yourself.





Overall source:

htt[SPACE]p[SPACE]:/[SPACE]/en.[SPACE]wikipedia.[SPACE]org/w[SPACE]iki/Star_Wars:[SPACE]_The_Old_Republic#Development

Remove "[SPACE]."



[B][U]Citation of NUMBERS:



htt[REMOVE]p://ww[REMOVE]w[REMOVE].1[REMOVE]up.[REMOVE]c[REMOVE]om/n[REMOVE]ews/ea-louse[REMOVE]-blows-lid-old-re[REMOVE]public-budget-warhammer-failure [REMOVE]

Like some one already posted, gife it a few months.. it's new for most people.. and second, i dont get why u use all these expensive words.. u realy wanna show off who is the biggest nerd? or u just have way to much time at home..

leave it.. posts like this conclude nothing more then trolling.

[Deleted]

Like some one already posted, gife it a few months.. it's new for most people.. and second, i dont get why u use all these expensive words.. u realy wanna show off who is the biggest nerd? or u just have way to much time at home..

leave it.. posts like this conclude nothing more then trolling.

hes just another fail life shitter whos trying to impress "internetz" people with his grammar "skill"

[Mister K]

Mods would be nice if you could fix his links

Anyway 300million, someone needs to check for correct statements. Last I heard it was near 150Mill or so.

[Thornstar]

oh lord how is this not locked already? D:

[Mister K]

hes just another fail life shitter whos trying to impress "internetz" people with his grammar "skill"

No need to be a dick. But the OP is out of his mind, calculations are afterall calculations. Come back in a month or two and see in person how TOR is actually doing. Better yet, in a year we will see if its going good or crappin' it out.

[ButterToast]

hello mr 1 post troll the swtor forum guy.

the game had more preorders than that.
they had more people actually playing before launch day than that.

1 post ? I see he have 45 posts

[Mister K]

ye but the Schwartz is strong with this one

Haha no.1

Why would someone go through so much effort for this? It does NOT concern you, only Bioware. You can't judge a game that has only been out for like 2-3 weeks and say that it will flop, wait a year and see how it goes. Nuff said /thread

---------- Post added 2011-12-31 at 12:12 PM ----------

1 post ? I see he have 45 posts

Ever occurred to you he might of got his post count up from the time of his thread post till now?

[Deleted]

Whatever, keep running from the truth. A well-structured and reasonable post, and fanboys still try their best to tear it down. Your kind are the PRIME REASON why I can not wait for this game to go F2P and eventually close all servers. God speed.

If by fanboys you mean a forum full of people enjoying the game for what it is, a game. Something that hasn't happened for me at least in MMO games for years, yes we're fanboys.

Your wikipedia edit gave the game away mate, give it up.

[Mister K]

Who cares? The game is fun and I'm sure plenty of people will agree and continue to play.

It comes down to this. Who gives a flying ***** if you don't like the game? At the end of the day, if people enjoy it they will play it, I sure will because all other MMOs are terrible, oh and yes even WoW. After 5 years I got simply bored, never coming back unless to post on forums to update my realm posts which Il need to do next month since I haven't updated it for like 5 months...

[berserklover]

You started decent then ended horrible with the calculation. The game did not cost more than a movie (can't even believe you actually think a video would cost 280 million $, even as a MMO). Also EA already said that half a million subscriber was enough to pay for the game itself (you can read that anywhere). Lastly I know you think the big words are important to be taken seriously, sadly it's not. And like all the other other MMO ever made even wow, everybody always says that. Use to be the same topic about EQ Epicness and WOW failure, look now. Let's give it time and see what happens instead of "look I guess the future".

ps: not everybody is a fanboy, I hate star wars, the game however entertains me.

[Mister K]

http:[SPACE]//www[SPACE].swtor [SPACE].c[SPACE]om/news/press-release/20111223


remove space

You can still post links but they won't be clickable. Now go change your post since you already have more then 10 posts so the links are clickable, thanks man.