7 days till the *hit hits the fan. Or maybe not?

[bcbully]

Feb. 9th is the big day for Acti-Blizz investors. I think any positive growth will be huge for the future of the game both short term and long. On the other hand a report of 1mill+ lost will be catastrophic. Especially in light of another game gaining 60k+ players a week since launch. If you were an investor would you pull that money and send it else where?

Investors need to hope that Bobby Kotick selling 45% of his Acti-Blizz shares is not a harbinger of things to come.

/discuss

edit - they moved the date back a day.

[Shalashaska Ocelot]

Blizzard still has Diablo 3, Starcraft Heart of the Swarm, and Pandaland coming out this year, I somehow think that despite the fact they may have hit a bit of a speed bump with lost wow subs, they'll be just fine.

[Deleted]

Especially in light of another game gaining 60k+ players a week since launch. If you were an investor would you pull that money and send it else where?

which is this game? i hope you don't mean the tortanic.

[coldfiredragon]

Also I think 4.3 has done a LOT to bring people back. All the people I knew that quit quit because the raids and dungeons were way harder then Wrath and they did not want something hard. A good number came back with the new easy dungeons and LFR.

[bcbully]

Blizzard still has Diablo 3, Starcraft Heart of the Swarm, and Pandaland coming out this year, I somehow think that despite the fact they may have hit a bit of a speed bump with lost wow subs, they'll be just fine.

Very very good point.

---------- Post added 2012-02-02 at 12:47 AM ----------

which is this game? i hope you don't mean the tortanic.

yeah... that one.

[Deleted]

yeah... that one.

well, that game already lost 300k players from launch, and that only looking to band-aid numbers made up by EA to try to hide the hemorrage.

on topic i expect a slight decrease, as always near the end of an expansion.

[bcbully]

well, that game already lost 300k players from launch, and that only looking to band-aid numbers made up by EA to try to hide the hemorrage.

on topic i expect a slight decrease, as always near the end of an expansion.

If numbers go up from 1mill to 1.7mill, I don't think you can say it has lost.
OT-looking at warcraftrelms it looks like activity is lower than it was at the end of BC.

[Deleted]

If numbers go up from 1mill to 1.7mill, I don't think you can say it has lost.

huh? it sold 2 million copies but atm they "estimate" 1.7 million subscribers. if maths is not an opinion its a net 300k loss.

[Kevyne-Shandris]

Well, this was pretty accurate in predicting the other sub losses...

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weeklyactivity.php

[Dhurn]

I don't think investors will be scared off if WoW only loses another 400k-500k. Nobody expected the 10 million+ surge to last forever, and Blizzard stock as a whole is still very promising with the release of big ticket games right around the corner. If they lose somewhere in the 1-1.5million range though, could be cause for concern because that says a lot about people's shifting attitude toward Blizzard as a whole if even the Annual Pass can't keep numbers somewhat steady..

[Kakokun]

huh? it sold 2 million copies but atm they "estimate" 1.7 million subscribers. if maths is not an opinion its a net 300k loss.

Which is a pretty decent job for a new MMO with minimal content right now and lots of issues. WoW didn't exactly peak overnight either you know.

[Linzo]

I know your not worried about blizzards money bro

anyways, I find it amusing that Biodrones are cheering for a 15% SWTOR sub loss in a month. Not counting the people still on their Free month of course.

[Deleted]

Which is a pretty decent job for a new MMO with minimal content right now and lots of issues. WoW didn't exactly peak overnight either you know.

its barely more than rift with a much superior budget, i wouldnt call that a noteworthy success.
it will end up as a niche game.

as for unofficial data xfire is quite stable for wow (swtor is dropped massively).

[Deleted]

i expect another large drop, but it depends on how many people blizzard netted with the annual pass.

[Ryme]

Has always proved to be indicative of the general swing of things - However, with the 1 year lock in deal, subscriptions numbers may be higher than what active player counts show.

[Araella]

Investors need to hope that Bobby Kotick selling 45% of his Acti-Blizz shares is not a harbinger of things to come.

No worries. I'm sure Kotick isn't the type to sell half his stock if he had the suspicion that his baby was going to tank.
On the plus side, if Kotick is giving up on WoW, maybe he will also finally give up on his infinitely qualified (/sarcasm) anal parasite, Ghostcrawler.

[Mad_Murdock]

If you were an investor would you pull that money and send it else where?

Investors need to hope that Bobby Kotick selling 45% of his Acti-Blizz shares is not a harbinger of things to come.

/discuss

Go look at Activisons full report. Call of Duty MW3 is doing pretty darn good. It's outpaced Avatar the movie in getting to $1.billion. In 16 days. That's going to help Activisions Q4 report by a fair amount
http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertco...e-than-avatar/

Has an investor, I'd look at the whole picture.

I do expect more WoW sub losses, though the Annual pass may stemied that loss a bit. We'll see in a few days. As others have noted, WoW may be struggling, But D3 and SC2 Xpac can offset that. Lots of numbers to pour through.

[Kakokun]

its barely more than rift with a much superior budget, i wouldnt call that a noteworthy success.
it will end up as a niche game.

as for unofficial data xfire is quite stable for wow (swtor is dropped massively).

You're talking like over 1 million players is a minor thing. I don't think you really understand todays MMO market. 1 million players is a pretty big thing. That WoW reached the amount of players that it did is an enormous feat.

[Adramalech]

Expecting more losses to be honest. Expecting any game to maintain such a huge number of subscriptions at the same time is quite foolish. It is already impressive that WoW did for so long, but obviously it won't last forever.

[bcbully]

huh? it sold 2 million copies but atm they "estimate" 1.7 million subscribers. if maths is not an opinion its a net 300k loss.

o.o? I see a net 700k gain in 5 weeks.. oh well.

---------- Post added 2012-02-02 at 01:10 AM ----------

I know your not worried about blizzards money bro

anyways, I find it amusing that Biodrones are cheering for a 15% SWTOR sub loss in a month. Not counting the people still on their Free month of course.

There were 1 million pre launch now there is 1.7 million 5 weeks later. The 700k was gained after launch. Not defending or pubbing, but this is a no spin zone :P

---------- Post added 2012-02-02 at 01:11 AM ----------

Go look at Activisons full report. Call of Duty MW3 is doing pretty darn good. It's outpaced Avatar the movie in getting to $1.billion. In 16 days. That's going to help Activisions Q4 report by a fair amount
http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertco...e-than-avatar/

Has an investor, I'd look at the whole picture.

I do expect more WoW sub losses, though the Annual pass may stemied that loss a bit. We'll see in a few days. As others have noted, WoW may be struggling, But D3 and SC2 Xpac can offset that. Lots of numbers to pour through.

As I said to the second poster, very good point.