Could physical media actually die out?

[Korru]

I'll bite on one small piece of this idea, books.

Examples of literature date back to the early bronze age. This means we have nearly 5,000 year old books.

How long do you think the Facebook servers are going to remain operational? How many technology shifts will occur during the next 5,000 years, and how much data will shift each time? I think most of the data that is currently being stored has very little long term value. Some of the data we're storing, though, has great long-term value. Scientific journals, for instance, and publishing experimental data and the conclusions being drawn from that data. This would be of great value to future civilizations, so they can understand our times a little better.

My overall thought is that virtual and physical media will coexist. There is no great reason for only one to survive. We can find fantastic uses for both.

We upload our library to a satellite, I'm sure a satellite will last much longer than a book. :3

[Djinni]

We upload our library to a satellite, I'm sure a satellite will last much longer than a book. :3

Not accounting for metors, power fluctuations or a decaying orbit...

[Anakso]

True. I really see no reason for Jane Green to hop in her car and drive down to Blockbuster in order to rent Bridget Jones. When instead, she can just turn on her computer, log onto Netflix, and stream to her TV.

Speaking of blockbuster, 2 years ago we had 7 video stores within about 20 minutes drive from us or less in various direction, right now only 1 of them is left, and we don't even have netflix in Australia. We use Foxtels on demand service which has most new movies (not all) and most of the big series (but can be quite lacking on some things) and fairly easy to use and was automatically set up with foxtel.

[Korru]

A book won't last through decay or a disaster. >_>

[Deleted]

Personally, I hope it doesn't, but everything that has happened in the past few years lead me to believe it will come faster then we expect. Services like iTunes and spotify are dominating the music market, people can now stream any movie they want to their homes for a very cheap price via netflix and the rumours of the next-gen consoles not even containing an optical drive as all games would be downloaded.

Like others stated, quiet a scary world, big organisations would rather you not buy second hand games and it seems they are on the right track to stopping it.

[Tychus]

As great as Wikipedia is, it still isn't recognised as a suitable reference medium for any academic studies, Journals, Magazines, Books and Newspapers etc..

The irony being that it's been found, in terms of errors per volume content, to be on par or better than Britannica and others.

[Djinni]

the rumours of the next-gen consoles not even containing an optical drive as all games would be downloaded.

Like others stated, quiet a scary world, big organisations would rather you not buy second hand games and it seems they are on the right track to stopping it.

Game console companies aren't going to limit customers buying their games or buying games for their consoles by leaving the customers ability to download games in the hands of the customers ISP. Not for the sake of a $/£10 ODD.

[Cyanotical]

We upload our library to a satellite, I'm sure a satellite will last much longer than a book. :3

actually this is not true, satellites need constant course correction and fuel to maintain boosters for that correction, once they run out of fuel, their orbit degrades and they fall to earth, this happens all the time, a high orbit satellite might last a few hundred years, but not long enough for a new civilization to find it, and retrieve the data


i view the volatile state of virtual data as a good thing, we used to think that Egyptian hieroglyphs had some mystical meaning, until we found that most of it was accounting and taxes, the same with norse runes, what people once thought was a magical inscription on a sword was actually the name of the owner, perhaps by preventing the future civilizations from knowing our day to day BS, we can maintain some view of us in a positive note, instead of just a mundane one

as Djinni pointed out, there should be some knowledge to pass down to future civilizations, but should that really be snooki's twitter feed? personally i would like to see a more volatile data system, where non valuable data (90% of the internet) is destroyed after some time, yet things related to science and culture are preserved

as for the actual media used, right now there is a shift away from optical media within the computer community, few people are buying bluray drives, i think that in a few years operating systems will start to come from a kiosk at a store where you plug in your usb flash drive, and it gets flashed with the OS, or is simply sold on a USB drive (this has proven wildly successful in china with bootleg copies of windows) most other software will be downloaded from a server

also, i think the days of loading up your computer with large capacity drives are numbered, solid state technology may never reach the huge capacities of a hard disk, but it doesn't have to, currently networking technology is at the point where you can stream your own videos and music from your own personal server, in a few years perhaps we can all be running 10Gbit switches and store our games and software on a server, leaving only the OS for local installation

[Djinni]

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Great idea with volatile data... maybe once we shift to cloud based computing/storage we wont need so much redundancy... I'd hazzard a guess that a good portion of all stored data is just duplicates. We can cut down a lot on our storage needs by simply not having 6 or 7 copies of the same information. (and that's just per person)

[nyc81991]

I just want Mainstream media to die out but I doubt that it will happen any time soon.

[Orlong]

Actually desktops are rigid, not flexible. That's their very nature and only drawback.

Tablets are all about flexibility and that limits their performance much more. And you can hook up keyboards and mice to any quality tablet and play quite a lot of games with them. I don't think you own one by the sounds of it, they're quite nice honestly. And with Apples new iPad and the A700, 1080p+ is coming to tablets.

While that is somewhat true, you will never get a tablet that will be able to play the newest games with all the graphics features cranked up. Also they dont have the storage space to install games. Secondly There is no way I would want to play a game like WoW or D3 on a tablet. It would be a poor experience. And yes I do have a new Ipad and it is good for daily tasks but NOT for modern quality games beyond Angry Birds and Fruit Ninja. Also while it has 1080P possibilities it will only play 1080P movies that you purchase from Itunes and load onto it. It wont stream 1080P content and it doesnt support HD Master Audio.

[Deleted]

I'd actually argue against the book point. I agree with everything else, but there will always be books. If I had to choose between reading a physical book and an online e-book (which actually hurts my eyes), I'll go with a good ol' book.

Agreed, I love reading actual books. I mean, you can't replicate the smell of a new book for example, and that's why books won't die out.

[Korru]

actually this is not true, satellites need constant course correction and fuel to maintain boosters for that correction, once they run out of fuel, their orbit degrades and they fall to earth, this happens all the time, a high orbit satellite might last a few hundred years, but not long enough for a new civilization to find it, and retrieve the data


i view the volatile state of virtual data as a good thing, we used to think that Egyptian hieroglyphs had some mystical meaning, until we found that most of it was accounting and taxes, the same with norse runes, what people once thought was a magical inscription on a sword was actually the name of the owner, perhaps by preventing the future civilizations from knowing our day to day BS, we can maintain some view of us in a positive note, instead of just a mundane one

as Djinni pointed out, there should be some knowledge to pass down to future civilizations, but should that really be snooki's twitter feed? personally i would like to see a more volatile data system, where non valuable data (90% of the internet) is destroyed after some time, yet things related to science and culture are preserved

as for the actual media used, right now there is a shift away from optical media within the computer community, few people are buying bluray drives, i think that in a few years operating systems will start to come from a kiosk at a store where you plug in your usb flash drive, and it gets flashed with the OS, or is simply sold on a USB drive (this has proven wildly successful in china with bootleg copies of windows) most other software will be downloaded from a server

also, i think the days of loading up your computer with large capacity drives are numbered, solid state technology may never reach the huge capacities of a hard disk, but it doesn't have to, currently networking technology is at the point where you can stream your own videos and music from your own personal server, in a few years perhaps we can all be running 10Gbit switches and store our games and software on a server, leaving only the OS for local installation

just put the library on the moon. it's a satellite. :3

[Cyanotical]

just put the library on the moon. it's a satellite. :3

it would still be in danger of meteors, the moon has no atmosphere to protect it's surface from small impacts, and of course there is no point, any civilization advanced enough to go and explore the moon, will match us in technology, and there is nothing we have to offer in a library

this is probably what you are looking for:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Guidestones

which makes a good point, stone is currently the best media for true long term storage, but even that can where out after a few thousand years
there are however carbon nanotubes:
http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2009/...-data-storage/
something like this would be perfect provided it holds up to the billion year claims, its simple binary, yet has high capacity

[Fuzzeekee]

The irony being that it's been found, in terms of errors per volume content, to be on par or better than Britannica and others.

Wikipedia - a source of info that "anyone can edit" and is discouraged to solely use in academia settings

Brittanica - info that has been true and sound for 244 years...allows for user content recommendations but still needs to be validated.

I posted this because of the junky wikipedia buddhism articles which prove my point....
Links: (Britannica) http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/525023/Satori
vs (wikipedia) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satori ...

Wikipedia has always been this terrible, unless it's something extremely obvious, which you don't even need a wikipedia for. You can trust a real encyclopedia with buddhism, you can't with wikipedia. LOL...This definition has been here since 2006 or earlier in encyclopedia britannica, and wikipedia has REVISED satori like 10x and they still have it wrong ahahaha! But wikipedia isn't too bad with generic definitions (like spatula, and kitten), and news records. I can't see them EVER having a future in buddhism, or on a serious front. It's very laughable...I use wikipedia all the time, but there's a fine line between encyclopedia, and free-education.

And if you wonder why I don't want to help them revise it? Wikipedia is that inconsequential...

[Cyanotical]

Wikipedia - a source of info that "anyone can edit" and is discouraged to solely use in academia settings

Brittanica - info that has been true and sound for 244 years...allows for user content recommendations but still needs to be validated.

I posted this because of the junky wikipedia buddhism articles which prove my point....
Links: (Britannica) http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/525023/Satori
vs (wikipedia) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satori ...

Wikipedia has always been this terrible, unless it's something extremely obvious, which you don't even need a wikipedia for. You can trust a real encyclopedia with buddhism, you can't with wikipedia. LOL...This definition has been here since 2006 or earlier in encyclopedia britannica, and wikipedia has REVISED satori like 10x and they still have it wrong ahahaha! But wikipedia isn't too bad with generic definitions (like spatula, and kitten), and news records. I can't see them EVER having a future in buddhism, or on a serious front. It's very laughable...I use wikipedia all the time, but there's a fine line between encyclopedia, and free-education.

And if you wonder why I don't want to help them revise it? Wikipedia is that inconsequential...

amazing, they both call Satori a form of enlightenment, but wiki posts exact sources, as for Britannica, they are no longer printing volumes
also, you cant trust ANY encyclopedia with ANY religion, what a religion means varies from person to person and changes over time

[Fuzzeekee]

amazing, they both call Satori a form of enlightenment, but wiki posts exact sources, as for Britannica, they are no longer printing volumes
also, you cant trust ANY encyclopedia with ANY religion, what a religion means varies from person to person and changes over time

They are no longer printing volumes because they have decided to put all their resources into the online one to make more money. That's the reason.

"form of enlightenment." <<< ?

I can tell right away how serious you are when you mix up all the terms, so be very nice...Zen Buddhism is not a religion (non-theistic). I practice it and teach it on the side. Obviously we cannot discuss this because you don't have the background in academic Buddhism. I don't want to degrade any idea you have of the world or force anything buddhist on you.

But the encyclopedia has clearly defined it compared to the "wikipedia" website. If you are wondering about sources I think you should look into shin jin mei, shobogenzo, hekiganroku, etc. Which Britannica has consulted expert Buddhists who practice. So there is a difference here, but that is all I wanted to say. No offense intended /gassho ...I can't see a single accurate source from soto-shu on wikipedia with members who have undergone shiho?! It's quite funny to me. Maybe they will have it right in another 10 years!!!

Also the one guy they list, his master was excommunicated from soto-shu. Not really so valid? But that is buddhism in the west.

[Shakadam]

Physical books will likely never disappear, there's just a certain feeling associated with reading a real book, no ebook comes close to that. Also, books work without access to electricity.

All other physical media might very well die out eventually.

Personally I haven't used the DVD drive in my desktop for about 3 years, and I've never used the optical drive in my laptop, which I bought in october last year.

[Cyanotical]

They are no longer printing volumes because they have decided to put all their resources into the online one to make more money. That's the reason.

"form of enlightenment." <<< ?

I can tell right away how serious you are when you mix up all the terms, so be very nice...Zen Buddhism is not a religion (non-theistic). I practice it and teach it on the side. Obviously we cannot discuss this because you don't have the background in academic Buddhism. I don't want to degrade any idea you have of the world or force anything buddhist on you.

But the encyclopedia has clearly defined it compared to the "wikipedia" website. If you are wondering about sources I think you should look into shin jin mei, shobogenzo, hekiganroku, etc. Which Britannica has consulted expert Buddhists who practice. So there is a difference here, but that is all I wanted to say. No offense intended /gassho ...I can't see a single accurate source from soto-shu on wikipedia with members who have undergone shiho?! It's quite funny to me. Maybe they will have it right in another 10 years!!!

Also the one guy they list, his master was excommunicated from soto-shu. Not really so valid? But that is buddhism in the west.

you cant trust ANY encyclopedia with ANY religion, what a religion means varies from person to person and changes over time

Cost is an official reason, but it leads to the reason of why did people stop buying the books, well, they can get it online for free, and even paying for Britannica, of the two posts you linked, they say the same thing, you are nitpicking an irrelevant detail, one that a layman doesn't care about

back on topic:
looking at books, its much more advantageous to skip the physical printing ad go straight to a digital format, you dont have to deal with a publisher, or whether or not your book is worth publishing, you can do it yourself, nor do retailers have to deal with deciding to purchase your book, they can just add it to there digital collection, if it never sells, they lose no money, vs the cost of ordering physical copies, paying employees to stock, and sell that book

[BicycleMafioso]

What's the definition of physical media, though?
Analogue?

I have no doubt, and have had no doubt since the mid '00s that optical media is in an inevitable downward spiral.
It's unlikely to be as predominant as it has been, nay, it's already slipped.
Will it be phased out completely? Some believe it will. I'm unsure whether optical media ever will go instinct. It has its uses, but they are few.
For personal storage, not only is it cheaper, but it's safer to store things on physical hard drives.

I mean, come on, all those MixCDs you burned 10 years ago, how many of them haven't gone corrupt by now?

As far as non-digital media? It will never die out.
Paper-media will find ways to adapt. Books won't be going extinct soon.
With all the praise of digital media being valid, it also have its drawbacks.
Higher electrical bills, irritation on low battery, malfunction, troubleshooting. All things you don't have to deal with in a book, for example.
For educational purposes, those are reasons enough not to phase out books.

And also. No digitally stored media is ever really safe.
Not only through impact-shocks, but static discharges and their heightened sensitivity to waterdamage makes them, even with future
protection against this, still a high-risk.

Digital media is never completely safe.