Math question about Green Proto Drake egg

[Woebegone]

All I have to say is screw that damn Green egg. I've opened that egg every time it's been available to me since WoTLK and I have yet to get that damn drake. RNG is RNG I know, but dammit this is rediculous.

Look on the bright side - the fact that you've gone forever without the mount, means someone got it on their first try, just to even out the odds.


As far as the original topic goes, it's been pointed out and explained many enough times - you're both wrong. The fact that, at the time I'm writing this, 50% of the poll answers say you're correct, does not make you correct. It just means we need better math education.

[raddry]

I'm learning that binomial distribution right now at school, though not really into it atm, more focused on end year exams I have and they don't involve maths. But I can say easily that neither of you are right, and apparently the correct answer has been hinted several times

[Meledelion]

This is basic high-school stuff over here, taught to 16-17 year olds...(3h of math is the minimum)
I understand that you don't know the exact number (or are too lazy to calculate it) but not knowing you're both wrong is just depressing, you should've deduced it from logic analyses like someone else did. If I can open a 1 packet and someone else can open 2 it's expected that the other guy has a better chance to get a prize...

[AVPaul]

There is one thing, that is surprising me very much: people are asking this question - How does random loot work? - for all 7 years since Wow release and there still no guide to explain them how. There are guides that explains how crit, haste, avoidance and etc. works but there are no guildes, that answers the most popular question among players - If item has M% droprate, approximately how long will it take to get it?

[Deleted]

This is basic high-school stuff over here, taught to 16-17 year olds...(3h of math is the minimum)
I understand that you don't know the exact number (or are too lazy to calculate it) but not knowing you're both wrong is just depressing, you should've deduced it from logic analyses like someone else did. If I can open a 1 packet and someone else can open 2 it's expected that the other guy has a better chance to get a prize...

I have no idea where you live, but in my country, this is not basic stuff.
Probability calculation like this is university level education, or at least high school with specialized math.

There is one thing, that is surprising me very much: people are asking this question - How does random loot work? - for all 7 years after Wow release and there still no guide to explain them how. There are guides that explains how crit, haste, avoidance and etc. works but there are no guildes, that answers the most popular question among players - If item has M% droprate, approximately how long will it take to get it?

Thing is, nobody can calculate how long it will take. You can only calculate a probability, but even then it can theorethically take you forever to get it, or you can get it on your first try.

Secondly, if you want an approximate number of tries (i.e calculate x in my previous post), you will have to give a certain treshold of probability to start with first.

In the equation, there are 3 variables (P,N and X in my previous post), of which 2 have to be known to be able to solve the equation.

[slime]

All I have to say is screw that damn Green egg. I've opened that egg every time it's been available to me since WoTLK and I have yet to get that damn drake. RNG is RNG I know, but dammit this is rediculous.

Took me a year and a half of opening them. My god, maybe it was just because I was trying to get one myself- but this has got to be one of the most common "Hey I just got this mount in my first egg 1% drops I've ever seen". Just about everyone I knew in wow, knew someone that got this thing on their first egg or in my guild I'd see links of the green proto and then something like "wow, i didn't know i could get this in these eggs?! I've only opened a few..." Well, I'm here to tell you to keep trying. When I finally did get it, I was sitting on the LK's throne shortly after finishing the final achievement for the 25 icc achievement drake.. I was pretty happy about getting that - we were taking pics on the throne and low and behold I get a little message saying I just got the cracked egg - opened it - boy was I suprised.

[AVPaul]

Thing is, nobody can calculate how long it will take. You can only calculate a probability, but even then it can theorethically take you forever to get it, or you can get it on your first try.

Secondly, if you want an approximate number of tries (i.e calculate x in my previous post), you will have to give a certain treshold of probability to start with first.

In the equation, there are 3 variables (P,N and X in my previous post), of which 2 have to be known to be able to solve the equation.

I mean show people how to calculate their probability to get item in N trys. Something like that:

LootSim v1.4 Loot Simulator and Calculator for World Of Warcraft
Copyright (c) Frostshocker, 2011

Try (N) - Drop rate on this try - Drop rate on all N tries
----------------------------------------------------------------
 1 -  15,000000000000000000% -  15,000000000000000000%
 2 -  12,750000000000000000% -  27,750000000000000000%
 3 -  10,837500000000000000% -  38,587500000000000000%
 4 -   9,211875000000000000% -  47,799375000000000000%
 5 -   7,830093750000000000% -  55,629468750000000000%
 6 -   6,655579687500000000% -  62,285048437500000000%
 7 -   5,657242734375000000% -  67,942291171875000000%
 8 -   4,808656324218750000% -  72,750947496093750000%
 9 -   4,087357875585937500% -  76,838305371679687500%
10 -   3,474254194248046880% -  80,312559565927734400%
11 -   2,953116065110839840% -  83,265675631038574200%
12 -   2,510148655344213870% -  85,775824286382788100%
13 -   2,133626357042581790% -  87,909450643425369900%
14 -   1,813582403486194520% -  89,723033046911564400%
15 -   1,541545042963265340% -  91,264578089874829700%
16 -   1,310313286518775540% -  92,574891376393605300%
17 -   1,113766293540959210% -  93,688657669934564500%
18 -   0,946701349509815328% -  94,635359019444379800%
19 -   0,804696147083343029% -  95,440055166527722800%
20 -   0,683991725020841575% -  96,124046891548564400%
21 -   0,581392966267715338% -  96,705439857816279800%
22 -   0,494184021327558038% -  97,199623879143837800%
23 -   0,420056418128424332% -  97,619680297272262100%
24 -   0,357047955409160682% -  97,976728252681422800%
25 -   0,303490762097786580% -  98,280219014779209400%
26 -   0,257967147783118593% -  98,538186162562328000%
27 -   0,219272075615650804% -  98,757458238177978800%
28 -   0,186381264273303183% -  98,943839502451282000%
29 -   0,158424074632307706% -  99,102263577083589700%
30 -   0,134660463437461550% -  99,236924040521051200%

The item most likely will drop on this try: 
----------------------------------------------------------------
Balance method          - 4,265024281798726460
Advanced balance method - 4,785316830422859200
Bernulli method         - 6,153129380622035460
Expected value method   - 6,666666666666666670

Chance to get item on Nth try pq^(N-1):

Chance to get item at least once spending N trys 1-q^N:

Binominal distribution Npq^(N-1) (chance to get item exactly once spending N trys):

Where X=number of tries, Y=chance and each line color corresponds to one of p=from 0.1 to 0.9
Expected value of trys you need to spend to get item with droprate p: N=1/p

[Meledelion]

I have no idea where you live, but in my country, this is not basic stuff.
Probability calculation like this is university level education, or at least high school with specialized math.

Belgium. At university this is repeated in the obligatory statistics classes but they go over each type of equation in one lesson (4h) if you're in any form of science class (physics, economics,...) if you're in law or psychology they take a lot more time to explain.

Endterms for maths in Belgium for the 2final years of highschool(they're grouped up like that over here):

D. Statistics and Probability

The students can

• apply laws of probability for independent and dependent events
• use the binomial distribution or the normal distribution as a model of a chance experiment.

Edit:
From your name I take it you're from Belgium aswell (-erke stands out) if you went to ASO (general secondary education) you should've learned this.

[Anjerith]

Drop rate is based individually, not on a sample size.