200 Hours Played No Uniques or Set items

[Deleted]

Got 1 on my monk on my 902875th farmrun in act 1 - some 1H Crossbow that sold for under a million. That's in a total of 300h played.

Got 6 on my WD - currently level 53 with 21 hours played. Hooray.

[Deleted]

This is absolute nonsense. The drop rates for legendaries and sets are clearly much, much, much lower than in D2. Go play D2 for 50 hours and I can guarantee you'll find sets and uniques, maybe not good ones you want, but they'll drop. Hell you probably can't get through a playthrough of normal without one dropping.

This whole "Random is random" nonsense ignores basic stats. If you lost 5,000 coin flips in a row and someone said "Oh well, it's random, random is random!" that's not a valid response because clearly smething is f'ing wrong with the coin. The law or large numbers and standard deviation are something you should look into.

I disagree. A coin has a chance to drop heads or tails of 0.5 each time you drop it. The drops are independent. If you get 100000000000000000 tails in a row you cannot conclude the coin is not fair. Any combination of 5,000 coin drops has EXACTLY the same probablility of occuring which is 0.5^5,000. Getting 2,500 tails and 2,500 heads has the same probablility of occuring as 5,000 tails or 5,000 heads.

The same with item drops. If you identify 200 crap rares it does NOT imply that there is a less chance the next item won't be crap. Items are independent of each other.

[Alilei32]

I could understand the droprates for legendaries being low if they were bis items. But why is the drop rate bad for total crap, which is what most are? People are trying to sell legendary weapons for 500k-1mil when a 50k yellow has 400 more DPS.

[Zaqwert]

I disagree. A coin has a chance to drop heads or tails of 0.5 each time you drop it. The drops are independent. If you get 100000000000000000 tails in a row you cannot conclude the coin is not fair. Any combination of 5,000 coin drops has EXACTLY the same probablility of occuring which is 0.5^5,000. Getting 2,500 tails and 2,500 heads has the same probablility of occuring as 5,000 tails or 5,000 heads.

The same with item drops. If you identify 200 crap rares it does NOT imply that there is a less chance the next item won't be crap. Items are independent of each other.

You can disagree all you want, but these aren't my opinions, they're just established mathematical facts.

I'm not talking about the gambler's fallacy, of course every drop and every flip is an independent trial, I am however talking about convergence over a large enough sample size.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

"For example, a fair coin toss is a Bernoulli trial. When a fair coin is flipped once, the theoretical probability that the outcome will be heads is equal to 1/2. Therefore, according to the law of large numbers, the proportion of heads in a "large" number of coin flips "should be" roughly 1/2. In particular, the proportion of heads after n flips will almost surely converge to 1/2 as n approaches infinity."

Over a large enough sample size you can conclude plenty.

If you have 5,000 flips and all 5,000 are heads you can with mathematical almost certainity conclude that the coin is not even close to 50/50.

The distrubution of results for a 50/50 coin should be a bell curve, with 2,500/2,500 being in the middle and more lopside results further out.

5,000/0 would be many hundreds of standard deviations away from the norm, when typically 5 or 6 indicates something highly unusual.

[Zippoflames]

Im at 450 hours total on a barb and a dh and ive had 0 legend 0 set pieces sold 1 item for over a million.. never found an upgrade for any char aside from raiding the AH boss.. People say rng is rng but where is the fun in this game? if you dont have any luck dont play seems to be how blizz wanted it.

(spl errors etc my bad using galaxy to post)

[Nitrak]

Aproxx 300 hours played, and about 13-15 legendaries and 2 set items (Danetta's Fury), where only 2-3 of the legendaries gave more then 1 million in outcome from the AH.

[The Ogdru Jahad]

little over 70 hours played and on my monk got a well itemized legendary ring to drop. Sold it for 3.4 mil, was really happy!

[Zaqwert]

I disagree. A coin has a chance to drop heads or tails of 0.5 each time you drop it. The drops are independent. If you get 100000000000000000 tails in a row you cannot conclude the coin is not fair. Any combination of 5,000 coin drops has EXACTLY the same probablility of occuring which is 0.5^5,000. Getting 2,500 tails and 2,500 heads has the same probablility of occuring as 5,000 tails or 5,000 heads.

The same with item drops. If you identify 200 crap rares it does NOT imply that there is a less chance the next item won't be crap. Items are independent of each other.

Also your example is false. A more balanced distrubtion is more likely because it has more ways to occur. Simple example.

Consider us flipping a fair coin twice.

The odds of having a 1/1 split is 50%
The odds of having all tails is 25%
The odds of having all heads is 25%

The reason

HH
TT
HT
TH

All of those results are equally likely, however there are more results with a more balanced result. Do it with 3 trials

HHH
TTT

HHT
HTH
THH

TTH
THT
HTT

As you can see, each of those scenarios is equally likely, but there are way more 2/1 results than 3/0 results.

The trend just gets more and more pronounced the larget eh sample size.

Long story short, I'm just saying people have collected enough date at this point to conclude the D3 set/unique drop rates are much lower than in D2.

[Hayro1]

A few hours after 60 and I found a Legendary belt from the act 1 goblin in Old Ruins, in total I've found about.....3-4 Legendaries and a set item, ~140 hours played (I don't play much.)

[Paloh]

I must have around 350 hours played by now and found maybe 5-6 legendary's, found the first after like 150+ hours. Only 1 useful, (for selling) and 2 of them over ilvl 60 (61-62 of course) and 0 set items. The thing is, even if you find a legendary 99% of the time you are gonna be disappointed after identifying it.

But yeah as other people already have pointed out, random loot is random. At some point you are gonna find a shit load of them and have to even salvage them for the mats or simply vendor them cus they suck..

[Zaqwert]

I must have around 350 hours played by now and found maybe 5-6 legendary's, found the first after like 150+ hours. Only 1 useful, (for selling) and 2 of them over ilvl 60 (61-62 of course) and 0 set items. The thing is, even if you find a legendary 99% of the time you are gonna be disappointed after identifying it.

But yeah as other people already have pointed out, random loot is random. At some point you are gonna find a shit load of them and have to even salvage them for the mats or simply vendor them cus they suck..

Once again, yes there is an element or randomness in drops, but after a large enough sample size you can make conclusions about the underlying drop rates and it's clear they are very low.

[Lejindary]

I only have 96 hours played and two days ago i got my first legendary and set piece. Both in the same day. Granted they both sucked ass, i still got them.

[Tradu]

I'm at about the same amount of played time. I've gotten a couple of completely awful legendaries, no set items and I had no idea that there was such a thing as "uniques"

[PowerGamez]

190 hours /played Barb.

9 Set/Legendaries.
4/9 were ilvl60+
3/9 had decent stats

[Deleted]

I hate this phrase. RNG is RNG. Fuck no. You want to see an RNG game with FUCKING VARIETY ? Play Diablo 2. Well how about that. Every hour you find a set piece, or legendary. Killing any boss rewards you with 1-5 legendaries/set pieces.

Fuck RNG. D2 made you fell like you looted something else THAN FUCKING BLUES AND YELLOWS FOR 300 HOURS STRAIGHT. The devellopers failed badly at understanding that variety in looting is important.

This game is so bad.

/rant

This is cute. I wouldn't say more than that, but in that case I'd probably get infracted.

RNG is RNG. Want to rage over RNG not benefiting you? Too bad. RNG is RNG, just like it was in D2. It may be a little lower than in D2, but not by too much.

I love how you think every boss dropped 1-5 unique/set items. That's cute too.

[kryptakronik]

About 400 hours played an roughly 13 legendary's and 4 set pieces. I got tal rasha's armor in back to back Inferno pony level clears. That day I also happened to get Blackthornes Belt and 3 legendary's. So six in a day =) Plus an IK helmet I had gotten a few days prior. All about the rng, you can get blessed like I did. Or play forever without seeing shit.

[Sam the Wiser]

Well this RNG working at its best here. Better luck your way tho.

[Zamfix]

Random is random is random is random. Is random.

You could play for 10,000 hours and never see a set item.

[greech]

I'm at around the same amount of played time as the OP and stopped counting legendary drops after the 8th or 9th, had drops covering just about every level range as well. Also picked up 3 or 4 set pieces.

[alba007]

Wow! Is this common ? If this is common then I'm glad I stopped playing. lol