The fragmentation of the MMO industry

[Deleted]

WoW is losing subs, SWTOR is losing subs, RIFT lost tons of subs, other MMOs are in decline too. What is happening you might be asking yourself? The fact is that the MMO industry is fragmenting. And by fragmenting I DO NOT mean shrinking. It is in fact growing. The thing is that more niche games are being released that cater to each individual type of player. The time of a single MMO completely dominating the genre is coming to an end. Instead there will be many different MMOs, that each appeal to a different type of player.

Many people left WoW because the game they've always wanted has been made by another company instead. In addition to this, new MMO players have many options, and thus are not pigeonholed into the "top" MMO. The lines have blurred and each MMO out there is a high quality product, none being completely superior to another. Each finding their own comfortable spot in the market, and their own loyal fans.

-TERA
-WoW
-GW2
-SWTOR
-RIFT
-Secret World
-Warhammer
-LOTRO
-EVE
-Lineage
-Aion

These are just a few of the many, many, many MMOs available. Whether you like Jedi, or you like Orcs, or you like hardcore play, or casual play, or PvE, or PvP. Thee is something for you. Gone are the days of there being a ruling "king" of MMOs, instead every MMO will find its own special spot and its own playerbase. This competition will foster an environment that will result in better MMOs for everyone.

The MMO industry is still growing, the pie is just more evenly split between the different MMOs.

[Jeina]

What other MMO has 9 million subscribers?

[Deleted]

What other MMO has 9 million subscribers?

If you actually read the OP, he's saying that the 3 million players that left WoW dispersed amongst ALL other MMOs.
Not to any "single" MMO....

Though I guess asking people to read is too much for these forums.

[Shinzai]

I don't think this has ever really changed. For example, just because Modern Warfare has the most players online, doesn't mean it's the best or the game everyone wants: There are still other FPS games out there, some bad, some good, some amazing, there's diversity on offer and that's how it's always been.

People just like to focus on the big names, and the crowd always loves to see a superstar fall over.

[reemi]

Nothing changed, theres a lot of mmo games since a while. I played over 100 mmorpg games before 2012...







Mod edit: Please use thumbnails!

[Hyve]

The MMO Genre is insanely popular, and has had a massive inflation over the last 2 years. I feel the genre is a little over-strecthed at the moment, but it doesn't take much to draw some of these dispersed players into one major title such as World of Warcraft.

Personally, there are some huge gaps in the MMO Market and the system and gameplay they use. I'm planning on investing into my own Game Development company and launch a series of games to lead into an MMO, and discussing some of the concepts with a lot of players is generating already a ton of interest.

[Boogums]

WoW is losing subs, SWTOR is losing subs, RIFT lost tons of subs, other MMOs are in decline too. What is happening you might be asking yourself? The fact is that the MMO industry is fragmenting. And by fragmenting I DO NOT mean shrinking. It is in fact growing. The thing is that more niche games are being released that cater to each individual type of player. The time of a single MMO completely dominating the genre is coming to an end. Instead there will be many different MMOs, that each appeal to a different type of player.

Many people left WoW because the game they've always wanted has been made by another company instead. In addition to this, new MMO players have many options, and thus are not pigeonholed into the "top" MMO. The lines have blurred and each MMO out there is a high quality product, none being completely superior to another. Each finding their own comfortable spot in the market, and their own loyal fans.

-TERA
-WoW
-GW2
-SWTOR
-RIFT
-Secret World
-Warhammer
-LOTRO
-EVE
-Lineage
-Aion

These are just a few of the many, many, many MMOs available. Whether you like Jedi, or you like Orcs, or you like hardcore play, or casual play, or PvE, or PvP. Thee is something for you. Gone are the days of there being a ruling "king" of MMOs, instead every MMO will find its own special spot and its own playerbase. This competition will foster an environment that will result in better MMOs for everyone.

The MMO industry is still growing, the pie is just more evenly split between the different MMOs.

This might happen eventually, and if it does, that doesn't mean WoW isn't the king now, and that it won't have been the king in the future.

If every mmo balances out with a nice 1.5 m players, and each new mmo is faily successful, and even WoW is going with 1.5m. It was still THE king. It is and will always be the king.

---------- Post added 2012-08-06 at 06:17 AM ----------

Also, reemi. Wanna get rid of those fucking massive pictures? We can all click on links just fine.

[Sj]

The more MMOs, the better. That's why the quality of WoW has stayed just about the same all these years, no competition. There still isn't competition for the top spot, of course, but if you get enough games out there (edit: taking small chunks of WoW's subs) to get Blizzard scratching their heads, you'll see some huge quality improvements.

[Kelimbror]

If you actually read the OP, he's saying that the 3 million players that left WoW dispersed amongst ALL other MMOs.

Except the actual reason is that these 3 million people are temporarily playing other games until Sep 25. For whatever scientific or emotional reasoning, World of Warcraft will still be drawing 10M+ at launches/bug patches for at least 2 more years.

I play WoW and a couple other MMOs. Try as I might, I can't even explain why I always go back to WoW. It kinda sucks...I want to play these other ones like I have WoW in the past and it just never happens. I think I have a problem.

[nalle]

Except the actual reason is that these 3 million people are temporarily playing other games until Sep 25. For whatever scientific or emotional reasoning, World of Warcraft will still be drawing 10M+ at launches/bug patches for at least 2 more years.

I play WoW and a couple other MMOs. Try as I might, I can't even explain why I always go back to WoW. It kinda sucks...I want to play these other ones like I have WoW in the past and it just never happens. I think I have a problem.

So you're saying that those 3 million (including me) will buy MoP? No, no they wont.

At least not all of them (I wont). It might go over 10 million subs again, but it's not certain that it will stay there for more then a few months after release (not saying that it wont either).

As for the bold part, it's a common feeling that many get while trying to quit for different reasons.

[Fencers]

The higher quality of MMOs in recent years is a big factor I feel in why we have seen so much fragmentation. The overall number of MMOs doesn't seem to have grown in the Western market by a [subjectively] huge amount. At least I feel it hasn't.

However, we do see a lot more polish and stability in the Tera, TSW and Rift of today than the Warhammer, Age of Conan and Anarchy Online of just a few years ago. Market fragmentation is not just a matter of having more options available, but better produced options.

[Sj]

It's pretty common for sub numbers to dip substantially before an expansion, even without other MMO's out there to take them away. I'd chalk most of those losses to burn-out, pre-expansion lull, and Diablo 3. I'm not saying nobody left for other MMO's during that time frame, but that doesn't mean none of them will come back for MoP.

---------- Post added 2012-08-06 at 10:44 AM ----------

The higher quality of MMOs in recent years is a big factor I feel in why we have seen so much fragmentation. The overall number of MMOs doesn't seem to have grown in the Western market by a [subjectively] huge amount. At least I feel it hasn't.

However, we do see a lot more polish and stability in the Tera, TSW and Rift of today than the Warhammer, Age of Conan and Anarchy Online of just a few years ago. Market fragmentation is not just a matter of having more options available, but better produced options.

Well said.

[Kelimbror]

At least not all of them (I wont). It might go over 10 million subs again, but it's not certain that it will stay there for more then a few months after release (not saying that it wont either).

As for the bold part, it's a common feeling that many get while trying to quit for different reasons.

I am almost certain that it won't stay there, but that is why they are aiming to put in more features and quicker content. They've promised it for years, but now that it is impacting their cash cow they don't have a choice. I expect that these implementations will keep it hovering between where it is now and the higher peaks for the life of Mists and carry it into the next and probably final xpac.

Say what you will about them, but they do know how to make money. Other than the RMAH and maybe the AP as an extension, which I couldnt be bothered to piss on, most of their practices aren't trying to take advantage of people.

edit:

I will say the quality of MMOs has gone through the roof, but so has their strategies. Most fringe MMOs went F2P very successfully, but this has only contributed to the overall market's retention and hasn't impacted WoW in any way really.

There's nothing wrong with WoW establishing the only dominant foothold in the sub market, while 10 other games make a LOT of money with F2P. My guess is that if Titan is not WoW2, we will see WoW go F2P in order to transfer most of those subs to their new baby.

[Cts53]

Very well said, ive been thinking about the state of the MMO genre ever since SWTOR claimed they were going f2p. I believe we are finally reaching a point in the mmo market where we will no longer have a "king", just a bunch of niche mmorpgs that cater to their specific market.

Plus with a crap ton of the really popular mmorpgs being f2p as well, it means there are more choices for players and they can jump around easier than if they have to pay a sub every single time. Here are some think i believe need to happen for the market to become really competitive-

1) Blizzard has to either announce how many subs they have in the west/east and not all together

2) Warhammer online needs to go f2p with an expansion of some sort to bring back the pvpers

3) WoW needs to continue to lose subscribers and fall around the 5mil mark (total)

4) TSW/TERA need to go f2p, and ArcheAge should launch f2p.

5) SOE needs to bring Vanguard up to speed on things with its new f2p model

I believe that if these things happen, good things will come to the mmorpg market and all us consumers will enjoy the spoils. I believe that WoW should find its market (hence why they lose more subs) and carter to it, just like other mmorpgs. Warhammer desperatly needs an expansion to liven things up and go f2p.

Maybe they can go f2p with the freemium thing like if you are a free player you~

1)Cant Do dungeons
2) Have a limit of 10 Scenarios a day
3) Gold limit of 10g
4) Can only access the chaos/empire maps
5) 5 characters max
6) No access to the scaven
7) Cosmetic options limited
8) Cannot operate rams/seige weapons

Plus they need an expansion that adds~

1) At least 2 new races with 8 new classes
2) More max level dungeons (grant no xp)
3) Dynamic pvp events
4) Keep or "tower" sieges in T1
5) New citys to siege
6) Increase level cap (too bloated at 40 atm)
7) Smooth out graphics in older maps
8) New combat mechanics.


If Mythic did this, i believe Warhammer would grow to about 500k subs and hold strong there.

[Makoblade]

OP is badly misinformed

MMO industry isn't really growing presently. WoW is showing it's age, and other new titles are just not good so their playerbases remain small.

[Cts53]

OP is badly misinformed

MMO industry isn't really growing presently. WoW is showing it's age, and other new titles are just not good so their playerbases remain small.

Subjective comment, the other mmorpgs that the OP mentions (along with others like DDO, Allods, Vindictus) are done very well now that they have either a) had time to age and smooth things out or b) was launched in a smooth state.

WoW is not the end all be all of the genre, and the other MMOs stand taller than WoW at things like content, patch speed, lore, combat ect.

[bbr]

its good players are dispersing,. it gives competition and innovation a better chance.

also, fun to see UO still fairly stable at 100k after all these years.

[Cts53]

its good players are dispersing,. it gives competition and innovation a better chance.

also, fun to see UO still fairly stable at 100k after all these years.

This, 100 times this. This genre needs to level out and get rid of having a king. It is just too damaging to the community and genre as a whole.

[Edge-]

its good players are dispersing,. it gives competition and innovation a better chance.

also, fun to see UO still fairly stable at 100k after all these years.

Take those numbers with a big grain of salt, a lot of them are guestimated from incomplete data.

[schippie]

I will say it like this. That the once 12,4 million wow subscribers are not resubbing to other MMOs. Yes a part will but more then 20-40% will simply stop playing the MMOrpg genre, lets be honest most people in atleast my guild are married couples have childeren etc. and really have no lust for a new MMO besides wow. And i think if you then start to dislike wow you wouldnt at all want to play a new one anymore (atleast the discussion in the guild indicated that).

Honestly i think that the MMO market grew immensely because of WoW but it will not pass on all its members. I really believe a large part will quit MMOs in general, maybe even most of the gaming stuff in general. And yes add to that its all fragmentating and then you get to my question.

"Does anybody believe we will ever have another mmorpg that has 12million people playing in one month together? "
My feeling is that it wont happen not any time soon atleast ..