Regarding Ashes of Alar mount and its drop rates

[Ornias]

I did the same thing. 2 manned it in cata and it dropped for my friend, now I'm farming it. I'm not thinking about it, I'm just doing it when I can and it will drop when it drops, no point trying to make notes or calculate it when it's completely out of your control. Just kill the boss each week and one day it will drop, have patience.

[Shadowbane]

Got it the other day after farming it, not every week but now and then. Every 3 or 4 weeks maybe. It's taken about 12 kills at an estimate, probably less.

[KCguy]

I did the same thing. 2 manned it in cata and it dropped for my friend, now I'm farming it. I'm not thinking about it, I'm just doing it when I can and it will drop when it drops, no point trying to make notes or calculate it when it's completely out of your control. Just kill the boss each week and one day it will drop, have patience.

Yup. Same deal with my and Onyxia. It dropped once in Cata and I gave it to a friend. Now I'm trying again in Mists. I do it 6x a week. Am I sick of it? Very. Do I think about it when I loot the boss? Eh, sometimes. Other times I just loot without thinking. That's similar to what happened the first time. We'd done it a far amount of times and looted it and it took the few of us a second to even realize it had dropped. Hopefully it drops soon.

[Ange]

I got my Ashes of Alar after 47+ Kills. I saw many other chars with 45-50 Kills till Ashes of Alar Achivement, so I think my 47+ Kills are allright.

About ninja looting the Mount...
Maybe it's just me, but I could never be happy with a ninja looted mount, because I would allways remember how I got it.

[nnelson54]

me and my friend have been farming TK, 6 times a week and finally after many many runs a mount drops and after some negotiations we accepted that he gets the mount.
we will continue the farming until i get it also but i am worried i will not get the mount for a long time or even never.

is there anyone good with statistics that can theory craft the chances that i can get the mount ??

it seems that the drop rate is noted as 2% on wowhead. i figured that it can drop at the rate of 12% per week if we count the number of raids we do. but if that was true then we would have them by now.

can someone please give me some statistic here?
and can someone tell me of their experience with the drop chance

WoWhead is very accurate with drop rates, you just have a poor grasp of statistical probability. Doing it six times a week doesn't mean you have a 12% chance to get it that week. It just means you have a 2% chance to get it six times.

[Chonar]

Gambler's Fallacy. Read up, it's very liberating once you accept this.

[Tepesch]

The chance of seeing it this way is 11.5% per week.
This means you need 6 lockouts until you get a 50/50 chance of seeing it once. Or 14 Lockouts for a 80% chance of seeing it.

RNG is RNG after all

[savvasp]

332 runs and counting, haven't seen it

Something about this seems... off

If you did it once a week wouldn't this take more than 6 years ? Or maybe my math is bad

[Chonar]

Something about this seems... off

If you did it once a week wouldn't this take more than 6 years ? Or maybe my math is bad

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

I farmed Baron Geddon for 6 years. MY MIND IS TURTLES

[nnelson54]

Something about this seems... off

If you did it once a week wouldn't this take more than 6 years ? Or maybe my math is bad

I don't know his situation, but I have four characters who can solo him and do it four times a week. I've had two characters soloing him since account-wide mounts were announced at the end of Cataclysm and two more that can do it with the extra padding of level 90 gear and stats.

More and more people are doing this stuff 4-5 times a week since the mounts are account wide.

---------- Post added 2012-12-11 at 01:55 PM ----------

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

I farmed Baron Geddon for 6 years. MY MIND IS TURTLES

The Gambler's Fallacy has nothing to do with it. Pretty sure he was referring to the fact that Tempest Keep hasn't even been out for six years.

[Drfireburns]

I run it once a week, and pretty much have been since WotLK. Still no Ashes. The same goes for Midnight and Baron. I want to punch a baby in the face.

[Chonar]

The Gambler's Fallacy has nothing to do with it. Pretty sure he was referring to the fact that Tempest Keep hasn't even been out for six years.

Right you are, I interpreted his disbelief differently.

[Moradim]

rng is dumb sometimes

i've got both bindings, made thunderfury, got the left AND right binding again, but still no eye off rag.

[Malgru]

I got Mim's Head on my first run on Yogg0. 24 other competing members, and I won the roll.

RNG is RNG.

[Drilnos]

A friend of mine took about 64 runs to get his. Said he'd help me get mine after I did 40 or so of those with him. That was about as bald-faced a lie as any. Luckily I can solo it now.

[Drfireburns]

I got Mim's Head on my first run on Yogg0. 24 other competing members, and I won the roll.

RNG is RNG.

Forgot about Mim's head. Yeah, I gave up on getting that long ago.

[AkTheDK]

Rng at it's best