Mega-Thread: Gun Control Thread

[Tinykong]

wtf, you wrote the data that rebuttes the study is readily available... i asked for a link and you gave me nothing that rebuttes or even shows any data on the subject

I said that the homicide statistics don't align with the statistics being claimed in the study, which they don't. A single data point being used to make a claim that an event caused a trend is ludicrous.

[TZucchini]

No, you provided a transcript of a synopsis of data.

Where is the actual data?

Tiny. You're looking for numbers on a sheet of paper from a reputable source, correct? I've given that to you.

What could you possibly do with the data that the research team already hasn't? Are you going to analyze it even more than they did? We don't need armchair analysis from someone that posts anonymously on forums.

The data is real. The evidence for it exists. You're not interested in looking at the evidence for the data. Not my problem.

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I said that the homicide statistics don't align with the statistics being claimed in the study, which they don't. A single data point being used to make a claim that an event caused a trend is ludicrous.

The statistics don't align? Where's the evidence for that?

[Tinykong]

Tiny. You're looking for numbers on a sheet of paper from a reputable source, correct? I've given that to you.

What could you possibly do with the data that the research team already hasn't? Are you going to analyze it even more than they did? We don't need armchair analysis from someone that posts anonymously on forums.

The data is real. The evidence for it exists. You're not interested in looking at the evidence for the data. Not my problem.

Where did they pull their statistics from, what methodology did they use in computing their variables, etc., etc., etc., etc., etc. You know, the kinds of things people would like to see when they refuse to accept a conclusion based on the credentials of a researcher?

At a quick glance, one can't define what kinds of homicides they want to see detail on via the FBI UCR system, maybe it's available elsewhere? Why do you think I have been repeated asking you for this information? You repeatedly fail to provide it.

The statistics don't align? Where's the evidence for that?

The homicide rate is lower some years after the ban than it was some years prior to the ban. That contradicts the notion that the repeal of the ban caused an increasing trend in homicides.

Now, if we could see their data and methodologies, perhaps we would have a better understanding of how they arrived at their conclusion. Except, we can't.

[lockedout]

"Here it is. This is the video where I was asked to keep the Democrat proposals for the NY SAFE Act away from the public. This list was given to me by a colleague and it is not confidential."

"This bill was an attack on the 2nd amendment and the Democrats clearly wanted to dismantle the work of the Founding Fathers. None of these amendments were included in the final bill thanks to us fighting back. I will not stand silent while these unpatriotic proposals are pathetically thrown at us a 11 o'clock at night:"

In case you are unfamiliar with this incident, the bill was passed out at 11pm and had to be voted on that night. As you can imagine it was not a short read.

1. Confiscation of "assault weapons"
2. Confiscation of ten round clips
3. Statewide database for ALL Guns
4. Continue to allow pistol permit holder's information to be replaced to the public
5. Label semiautomatic shotguns with more than 5 rounds or pistol grips as "assault weapons"
6. Limit the number of rounds in a magazine to 5 and confiscation and forfeiture of banned magazines
7. Limit possession to no more than two (2) magazines
8. Limit purchase of guns to one gun per person per month
9. Require re-licensing of all pistol permit owners
10. Require renewal of all pistol permits every five years
11. State issued pistol permits
12. Micro-stamping of all guns in New York State
13. Require licensing of all gun ammo dealers
14. Mandatory locking of guns at home
15. Fee for licensing, registering weapons

[Masark]

1. Confiscation of "assault weapons"
2. Confiscation of ten round clips
3. Statewide database for ALL Guns
4. Continue to allow pistol permit holder's information to be replaced to the public
5. Label semiautomatic shotguns with more than 5 rounds or pistol grips as "assault weapons"
6. Limit the number of rounds in a magazine to 5 and confiscation and forfeiture of banned magazines
7. Limit possession to no more than two (2) magazines
8. Limit purchase of guns to one gun per person per month
9. Require re-licensing of all pistol permit owners
10. Require renewal of all pistol permits every five years
11. State issued pistol permits
12. Micro-stamping of all guns in New York State
13. Require licensing of all gun ammo dealers
14. Mandatory locking of guns at home
15. Fee for licensing, registering weapons

2/3rds of those sound like Canada. We don't do 4, 5 (5 round limit, yes, arbitrary "pistol grip", no), 7, 8, and 12.

[TZucchini]

Where did they pull their statistics from

The FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting system. Also, they analyzed the annual data from death certificates through 2010 compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

what methodology did they use in computing their variables

We know the methodology. They measured the age-adjusted homicide rate before and after the repeal of Missouri's background check law. They controlled for multiple variables, including incarceration rates and trends in burglaries. They statistically controlled for other possible confounding factors such as shifts in unemployment and poverty. They also compared the age-adjusted homicide rates to those of surrounding states, as well as the nation as a whole. All this information is in the sources I've been linking. Have you even read them?

You know, the kinds of things people would like to see when they refuse to accept a conclusion based on the credentials of a researcher?

Like what? We know the methodology. We know the data sources. We know the conclusions and correlations. What else do you need?

The homicide rate is lower some years after the ban than it was some years prior to the ban. That contradicts the notion that the repeal of the ban caused an increasing trend in homicides.

That's not what you said. You made the claim that "the homicide statistics don't align with the statistics being claimed in the study". Which specific homicide statistics don't align with the statistics being claimed in the study? I'm guessing this is yet another claim you'll have to run from...

[lockedout]

2/3rds of those sound like Canada. We don't do 4, 5 (5 round limit, yes, arbitrary "pistol grip", no), 7, 8, and 12.

We live in America though.
I think the problem is with the "confiscation" portion, along with other parts.

[Eroginous]

"Here it is. This is the video where I was asked to keep the Democrat proposals for the NY SAFE Act away from the public. This list was given to me by a colleague and it is not confidential."

"This bill was an attack on the 2nd amendment and the Democrats clearly wanted to dismantle the work of the Founding Fathers. None of these amendments were included in the final bill thanks to us fighting back. I will not stand silent while these unpatriotic proposals are pathetically thrown at us a 11 o'clock at night:"

In case you are unfamiliar with this incident, the bill was passed out at 11pm and had to be voted on that night. As you can imagine it was not a short read.

1. Confiscation of "assault weapons"
2. Confiscation of ten round clips
3. Statewide database for ALL Guns
4. Continue to allow pistol permit holder's information to be replaced to the public
5. Label semiautomatic shotguns with more than 5 rounds or pistol grips as "assault weapons"
6. Limit the number of rounds in a magazine to 5 and confiscation and forfeiture of banned magazines
7. Limit possession to no more than two (2) magazines
8. Limit purchase of guns to one gun per person per month
9. Require re-licensing of all pistol permit owners
10. Require renewal of all pistol permits every five years
11. State issued pistol permits
12. Micro-stamping of all guns in New York State
13. Require licensing of all gun ammo dealers
14. Mandatory locking of guns at home
15. Fee for licensing, registering weapons

Sounds completely reasonable. I'm surprised anyone thought twice about any of those.

[Deleted]

Sounds completely reasonable. I'm surprised anyone thought twice about any of those.

It sounds like complete bullshit. City, County, State, and Federal Government are bound by the Constitution. It's sad that New York is slowly turning into a police state.

[Mayhem]

It sounds like complete bullshit. City, County, State, and Federal Government are bound by the Constitution. It's sad that New York is slowly turning into a police state.

which of the points is against the constiution?

[PhaelixWW]

If we did this, we'd realize that while the national rate decreased, Missouri's rate increased by 25%.

That 25% is a total numbers-massage. 2008 and 2010 were abnormal peak years. The person conducting the study chose that timeframe to exaggerate the point.

I could just as easily (and accurately) state that the Missouri firearm homicide rate from 2011-2012 was 4.64, which is a 20% drop from the 2008-2010 range the study uses, and is actually lower than the pre-repeal mean.

Lesson? An 88-year law is repealed, people go crazy buying shit for a few years, then settle down again.

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And PRE 9-11, I'm still waiting for you to explain why you think that these two maps look similar instead of opposite:



You kinda disappeared for a few days when I asked you to back up your "they look the same to me" bit.

[Deleted]

That 25% is a total numbers-massage. 2008 and 2010 were abnormal peak years. The person conducting the study chose that timeframe to exaggerate the point.

I could just as easily (and accurately) state that the Missouri firearm homicide rate from 2011-2012 was 4.64, which is a 20% drop from the 2008-2010 range the study uses, and is actually lower than the pre-repeal mean.

Lesson? An 88-year law is repealed, people go crazy buying shit for a few years, then settle down again.

How does that translate to more homicides though?
Unless you're saying an increase of guns per capita is linked with an increase in homicides rates?

[PhaelixWW]

Oh, and for those who are interested, the FBI just released their preliminary UCR data for the first half of 2013.

The upshot? All categories are down, yet again.

Violent Crime is down 5.4% from the same time (Jan-Jun) of 2012.
Murder is down 6.9%
Forcible Rape is down 10.6%
Robbery is down 1.8%
Aggravated Assault is down 6.6%
Property Crime is down 5.4%
Burglary is down 8.1%
Larceny/Theft is down 4.7%
Motor Vehicle Theft is down 3.2%
Arson is down 15.6%

But the country still thinks we're in an upsurge of crime, eh?

[Deleted]

Oh, and for those who are interested, the FBI just released their preliminary UCR data for the first half of 2013.

The upshot? All categories are down, yet again.

Violent Crime is down 5.4% from the same time (Jan-Jun) of 2012.
Murder is down 6.9%
Forcible Rape is down 10.6%
Robbery is down 1.8%
Aggravated Assault is down 6.6%
Property Crime is down 5.4%
Burglary is down 8.1%
Larceny/Theft is down 4.7%
Motor Vehicle Theft is down 3.2%
Arson is down 15.6%

But the country still thinks we're in an upsurge of crime, eh?

I don't think anyone is saying you're in an upsurge of crime.
Crime isn't the issue you need to look at. What you need to look at is "how many people die from a firearm injury".
This is what you're trying to lower, not your crime rates. I don't think anyone mentioned crime rates.

[PhaelixWW]

How does that translate to more homicides though?
Unless you're saying an increase of guns per capita is linked with an increase in homicides rates?

Are you trying to argue that the guns subsequently disappeared, which is what caused the rate to go back down? Or did the rate go back down despite the presence of more guns than ever?

[Deleted]

Are you trying to argue that the guns subsequently disappeared, which is what caused the rate to go back down? Or did the rate go back down despite the presence of more guns than ever?

Uh?
Thought the question was pretty simple.

[PhaelixWW]

I don't think anyone is saying you're in an upsurge of crime.
Crime isn't the issue you need to look at. What you need to look at is "how many people die from a firearm injury".
This is what you're trying to lower, not your crime rates. I don't think anyone mentioned crime rates.

No, that's ridiculously stupid.

If the number of murders stays the same, but the number of firearm murders goes down, that's not a victory. That's just the substitute effect in action.

If the number of firearm murders stays the same, but murders as a whole go down, that's a victory, because it means fewer people died as a result of crime.

Why the hell people put so much more importance on the method of death vs. the death itself is beyond me.

[Deleted]

No, that's ridiculously stupid.

If the number of murders stays the same, but the number of firearm murders goes down, that's not a victory. That's just the substitute effect in action.

If the number of firearm murders stays the same, but murders as a whole go down, that's a victory, because it means fewer people died as a result of crime.

Why the hell people put so much more importance on the method of death vs. the death itself is beyond me.

How does that work?
Oh you mean every death (DEATH NOT MURDER) by firearm would happen anyway with a different tool?
Talking about being ridicously stupid.
There is very little victory to cheer on when you have death by firearm rates comparable to third world. Which are by the way in most cases preventable with a bit of regulating.

But hey. It's your country, if you're happy everyone's happy.

[PhaelixWW]

Uh?
Thought the question was pretty simple.

Was your question serious? Because I read it as a snarky attempt to imply that my statement agreed with a "more guns, more gun crime" argument.

Either way, it's more about human psyche and motivation than the mere presence of more guns. If people are told for a long, long time that they can't have or do something, then are suddenly allowed to have or do that thing, they're going to do some stupid shit before they learn to be responsible.

Hence the fact that gun crime dropped dramatically in 2011-2012 from that peak in 2008-2010 in Missouri.

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How does that work?
Oh you mean every death (DEATH NOT MURDER) by firearm would happen anyway with a different tool?
Talking about being ridicously stupid.

Way to point at the hypothetical absolute and imply that that's what I'm saying would happen. Brilliant.

You handwaved away a 7% drop in murder rate, and instead said we should focus on firearm deaths. That's just stupid.

...death by firearm rates ... are ... in most cases preventable with a bit of regulating.

That statement is laughably naive and is almost sig-worthy.

[Deleted]

Was your question serious? Because I read it as a snarky attempt to imply that my statement agreed with a "more guns, more gun crime" argument.

Why do you keep talking about crime?

Either way, it's more about human psyche and motivation than the mere presence of more guns. If people are told for a long, long time that they can't have or do something, then are suddenly allowed to have or do that thing, they're going to do some stupid shit before they learn to be responsible.
Hence the fact that gun crime dropped dramatically in 2011-2012 from that peak in 2008-2010 in Missouri.

Gun crime? how about firearm deaths?

Way to point at the hypothetical absolute and imply that that's what I'm saying would happen. Brilliant.
You handwaved away a 7% drop in murder rate, and instead said we should focus on firearm deaths. That's just stupid.

The bolded part implied EXACTLY that.
How is that stupid since THIS is the core of the issue and not murder or crime rates?

That statement is laughably naive and is almost sig-worthy.

No it isn't, you're just, again, focusing on "crime" instead of "death".
But I get it you're in a bad mood and don't want to talk about it.
Better drop it.